Europe's migration crisis: Could it finish the EU?

The EU needs to kick out a few member states first.

zomgbbqftw said:

They will walk out of he EU. It's one thing to have the UK leave, but having Poland, Hungary and other Eastern nations walk out would be terminal. The UK was always had one foot out of the door.what you are suggesting would be the end of the EU.

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They should never have been admitted to the EU to begin with, or admitted at the same time Turkey would, or kicked out by now for not showing any solidarity. They got billions of EU aid for years to build their ex commie nations, but when asked to help out the first crisis hitting the West, they get racist.

The EU desperately needs to reform, it needs to get smaller and more proactive.

jelly said:

The real solution is African and Middle East prosperity, stability and technology advancements to make the most of the environments. If people don't have a reason to leave out of survival then you've won half the battle but is there also the issue that the rest of the world doesn't want that success for the region?

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This too. If you don't fix the problems in Africa and Mid East, they'll keep trying to come.

I do agree with smaller EU. Kicking out those who didn't hold the same values or can contribute economically.

Oilvomer said:

On Neogaf there if I recall a majority of people felt Merkel was right, I suspect a lot of those people changed their view now, there is simply no appetite for anymore mass migration, amongst anyone

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Let's go by the numbers:
First half of 2018 around 50.000 immigrants arrived in the EU. Following the trend then we would have 100.000 new immigrants this year. The EU has a population of more than 500.000.000. This year the immigrants would cause an increase of the overall population by 0,02%.

In other words: imagine a huge hall with 5.000 people in it. Now you add another person. Is it suddenly overcrowded or overfilled? I don't think so.
Still calling an increase of 0,02% "mass migration" is just a hyperbole but I guess some people won't care about any numbers as long as they don't like specific skin colors.

regenhuber said:

It's nice to agree on things. Would be even better if they took actual measures.

- as long as Tunisia and Morocco don't play along, we'll never get those asylum camps on non EU soil
- those "arrival camps" on EU soil are voluntary

Merkel came up empty again, worst chancellor ever.

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Not only this is senseless hyperbole, it's not even widely shared.



Her predecessor is a now Rosneft executive and ruined his party's credibility for decades, FFS.

EloKa said:

Let's go by the numbers:
First half of 2018 around 50.000 immigrants arrived in the EU. Following the trend then we would have 100.000 new immigrants this year. The EU has a population of more than 500.000.000. This year the immigrants would cause an increase of the overall population by 0,02%.

In other words: imagine a huge hall with 5.000 people in it. Now you add another person. Is it suddenly overcrowded or overfilled? I don't think so.
Still calling an increase of 0,02% "mass migration" is just a hyperbole but I guess some people won't care about any numbers as long as they don't like specific skin colors.

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Instead of calling everyone racist you could a) adjust the numbers proportionally to the months where most arrive, b) realize that "mass migration" refers to the total numbers of the last half decade, c) not pretend as if the number of total EU population was somehow relevant, but adjust it accordung to the nations where most of them end up and in fact to the cities and city districts where most of them end up, d) not play purposefully obtuse and pretend like we're talking about a one-time thing versus what happened and what is to come in the future if this path continued. In your analogy we wouldnt be talking about a house of 5000 but specific, overcrowded rooms therein that are already filled with arrivals of the prior years.

Blindly accepting anyone who illegally enters reinforces the migration movements, leads to more deaths, more societal tensions and worse situations in the origin countries. I am glad the EU has come to their senses and agrees.

I don't see this situation as crisis, this is the natural way of things in globalization and the values that come along with it.

If EU can't handle this, it deserves to be remembered as a failed and unfinished project.



Anyway, it is hypocritical to talk about this only now, when sudently it is a big problem for the German goverment...

A much better thread title and question would be: "Europe's White Nationalism: Could it finish the EU?"

Because the problem isn't "migrants", the problem is white Europeans and their racism that the right is cultivating while the center's neoliberal policies are fucking over citizens

Well, for now it looks like Merkel is saved.
I wonder what the EU summit would've looked like without the CSU ultimatum.

BoukObelisk said:

A much better thread title and question would be: "Europe's White Nationalism: Could it finish the EU?"

Because the problem isn't "migrants", the problem is white Europeans and their racism that the right is cultivating while the center's neoliberal policies are fucking over citizens

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Tell that to the nations that have taken hundreds of thousands of migrants with little to no help in mere months.

People are being extremely unfair and acting as if those displaced people were some kind of blessing instead of masses of folks from vastly different cultures, no work skills of any use in their host countries and no understanding of the local languages. It's hugely problematic and it's going to cause frictions even in the most accepting countries. Some governments are being total assholes about it, but others were left to their own and coped for the rest of the Union out of their own goodwill.

This happens all around the world, not just in Europe. Look at the tensions in some of the Middle Eastern nations host to large amounts of refugees or the utter messes in Central and Southern Africa. And some of those countries even share the same culture or have a high degree of compatibility between refugees and the host population.

Japanonaut said:

BBC is a diagrceful news organisation . Look at it's "coverage" on Scottish independence.

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Yeah....was a champion of the BBC before that, really soured me.

PaddingtonDidntDoIt said:

I do agree with smaller EU. Kicking out those who didn't hold the same values or can contribute economically.

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Punishments already exists:

FrequentFlyer said:

Instead of calling everyone racist you could a) adjust the numbers proportionally to the months where most arrive, b) realize that "mass migration" refers to the total numbers of the last half decade, c) not pretend as if the number of total EU population was somehow relevant, but adjust it accordung to the nations where most of them end up and in fact to the cities and city districts where most of them end up, d) not play purposefully obtuse and pretend like we're talking about a one-time thing versus what happened and what is to come in the future if this path continued. In your analogy we wouldnt be talking about a house of 5000 but specific, overcrowded rooms therein that are already filled with arrivals of the prior years.

Blindly accepting anyone who illegally enters reinforces the migration movements, leads to more deaths, more societal tensions and worse situations in the origin countries. I am glad the EU has come to their senses and agrees.

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a) If in the first half around 50.000 have arrived - what do you expect for the 2nd half? 4 Billion? It will propably follow the trend of the last years.
b) how exactly does "for anymore mass migration" refer to the last 5 years? Right, it doesn't because it refers to the future.
c) we are talking about the EU. Therefore, yes, the population of the EU is relevant.
d) yeah ... the EU is totally full and at its limit. Almost couldn't find clear path to walk to work today. /s

Facism said:

Incredible.

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I know right! - it's an appalling graphic

- wrong (misleading) flag
- tiny small print at the bottom
- it solely attributes the lack of war between 6 specific states to the EU, while ignoring things like the progress of civilisation, the industrialisation of warfare and far greater consequences of entering a war, and nuclear weapons post 1945.

Any which way you look at that graphic, it's glib, myopic, and wrong. Incredible.

FrequentFlyer said:

Instead of calling everyone racist you could a) adjust the numbers proportionally to the months where most arrive, b) realize that "mass migration" refers to the total numbers of the last half decade, c) not pretend as if the number of total EU population was somehow relevant, but adjust it accordung to the nations where most of them end up and in fact to the cities and city districts where most of them end up, d) not play purposefully obtuse and pretend like we're talking about a one-time thing versus what happened and what is to come in the future if this path continued. In your analogy we wouldnt be talking about a house of 5000 but specific, overcrowded rooms therein that are already filled with arrivals of the prior years.

Blindly accepting anyone who illegally enters reinforces the migration movements, leads to more deaths, more societal tensions and worse situations in the origin countries. I am glad the EU has come to their senses and agrees.

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You somehow think preventing immigration will save lives? Do you think immigration like this is done for fun? Europe pulling up the draw-bridge and saying "fuck you, got mine" to the millions of people they have both exploited through economic abuse and colonialism, and deliberately fought wars against, will cause untold deaths. All because some people do not like seeing different skin colors on their streets, and can't handle that perhaps there are consequences for decades of economic hegemony.

EloKa said:

d) yeah ... the EU is totally full and at its limit. Almost couldn't find clear path to walk to work today. /s

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I am still amazed that in 3 years of refugee-"crisis", I only meet 5 refugees.

Funky Papa said:

Her predecessor is a now Rosneft executive and ruined his party's credibility for decades, FFS.

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Schröder fucked up a few things but people dont go after the SPD because his relationship with Putin.

Most fucked up thing is that most immigration crises are in some way or form the result of the west meddling with the middle east, so it's really fucked up to be having a "us vs them" mentality.

Axel Berg-Larsen said:

You somehow think preventing immigration will save lives? Do you think immigration like this is done for fun? Europe pulling up the draw-bridge and saying "fuck you, got mine" to the millions of people they have both exploited through economic abuse and colonialism, and deliberately fought wars against, will cause untold deaths. All because some people do not like seeing different skin colors on their streets, and can't handle that perhaps there are consequences for decades of economic hegemony.

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Yes, similarly to the situation to Australia, people will eventually stop trying, combined with destroying smuggler businesses this will overall result in less deaths in the mediterranian. The rest is frankly the usual "white people are responsible for everything bad, #openborders" argument that I've read and commented on too many times to still take seriously and go for another spin. I've said multiple times that financial aid needs to be dramatically increased, together with more statebuilding efforts and renegotiation of abusive economical contracts. (and just incase you would hang on to that: I am not defending the state of australian island refugee camps)

Fudgepuppy said:

Most fucked up thing is that most immigration crises are in some way or form the result of the west meddling with the middle east, so it's really fucked up to be having a "us vs them" mentality.

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That is an extreme simplification so you can point at the big bad west for all your problems. No doubt there has been a lot of meddling, specifically from the anglosphere and France, but you will have to explain to me how Sweden or Austria are somehow responsible for Afghan refugees because the US bombed it to hell and destabilized the region. You can not just generalize "the West" and use that generalized player as both source and solution for all problems. (Also ironic given that those nations who probably meddled the most are also those least affected/targeted by refugees)

The world as we knew it will never be the same again, it will change for the worst, and it is already too late to fully prevent it because far far far too many people thought they had multiple chances to stop it so it was okay to not act

EloKa said:

Let's go by the numbers:
First half of 2018 around 50.000 immigrants arrived in the EU. Following the trend then we would have 100.000 new immigrants this year.

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Did you just make these numbers up? According to Eurostat the EU had 131 000 first time asylum seekers (145 000 total) during Q1 2018 alone.

Sweeney Swift said:

The world as we knew it will never be the same again, it will change for the worst, and it is already too late to fully prevent it because far far far too many people thought they had multiple chances to stop it so it was okay to not act

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As always, at some point there will be again a push in the other direction.

seabass said:

Did you just make these numbers up? According to Eurostat the EU had 131 000 first time asylum seekers (145 000 total) during Q1 2018 alone.

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I think he used numbers for germany. Can confirm, but the number sounds familiar.

FrequentFlyer said:

That is an extreme simplification so you can point at the big bad west for all your problems. No doubt there has been a lot of meddling, specifically from the anglosphere and France, but you will have to explain to me how Sweden or Austria are somehow responsible for Afghan refugees because the US bombed it to hell and destabilized the region. You can not just generalize "the West" and use that generalized player as both source and solution for all problems. (Also ironic given that those nations who probably meddled the most are also those least affected/targeted by refugees)

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As a Swede, I can say that we have been meddling to some extent.

- We sell weapons.
- Our welfare partly comes from exploiting labor in third world countries. Not necessarily the middle east, but it's not like we've got our hands clean.

seabass said:

Did you just make these numbers up? According to Eurostat the EU had 131 000 first time asylum seekers (145 000 total) during Q1 2018 alone.

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GAMEPROFF said:

I think he used numbers for germany. Can confirm, but the number sounds familiar.

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https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/euco-migration-booklet-june2018_en.pdf

Funky Papa explained these stats alread few times in this thread

We also should not pretend as if the numbers just went down randomly on their own. Aside from the syrian civil war having drawn to an end (or something resembling that), it is the result of strict information campaigns in origin countries, stricter policies overall, more deportations, more pressure on origin countries and the deal with Turkey. Claiming "Hey it went down anyways!" as an argument against stricter policies shows a complete lack of understanding.

Fudgepuppy said:

As a Swede, I can say that we have been meddling to some extent.

- We sell weapons.
- Our welfare partly comes from exploiting labor in third world countries. Not necessarily the middle east, but it's not like we've got our hands clean.

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I fail to see how that translates into having an obligation to take in an indefinite amount of illegal immigrants? Note that I am not against, and in fact pro humanitarian contingents (for those who need it most, ie families, elderly, handicapped), ie. registering people in their homecountries and taking a specific contingent per year and distributing them amongst the EU. What we are talking about is people illegally entering the EU, making their way to their country of choice and wanting to establish residence (in practice meaning mostly Austria, Germany or Sweden) there. For humanitarian contingents to be politically feasible on an efficient scale, the outer borders and thus the illegal immigration need to be curtailed as much as possible and strict policies in place.

Funky Papa said:

Not only this is senseless hyperbole, it's not even widely shared.



Her predecessor is a now Rosneft executive and ruined his party's credibility for decades, FFS.

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LOL
If it wasn't for Merkels version of RT called ARD and ZDF those numbers would be way down.
Schröder had the balls to take unpopular measures and straightened out Germany's economy and labor market. Regarding the SPD in its current state:
nothing of value was lost.

Amazing how people can't see what a massive L for Germany this "nothingburger" agreement represents.

Funky Papa said:

Tell that to the nations that have taken hundreds of thousands of migrants with little to no help in mere months.

People are being extremely unfair and acting as if those displaced people were some kind of blessing instead of masses of folks from vastly different cultures, no work skills of any use in their host countries and no understanding of the local languages. It's hugely problematic and it's going to cause frictions even in the most accepting countries. Some governments are being total assholes about it, but others were left to their own and coped for the rest of the Union out of their own goodwill.

This happens all around the world, not just in Europe. Look at the tensions in some of the Middle Eastern nations host to large amounts of refugees or the utter messes in Central and Southern Africa. And some of those countries even share the same culture or have a high degree of compatibility between refugees and the host population.

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Definitely agreed with you and I think both of our points compliment each other. Northern and Eastern European countries aren't doing shit to help and their isolationist policies is very much motivated by ethnic exclusion of African and Arab refugees.

FrequentFlyer said:

at least the catalon conflict will calm down now?

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It won't calm down. Pedro Sánchez offers nothing to pro-independence Catalans, he just has a more palatable image than Mariano Rajoy.
However I'm not as naive as to think the Catalan conflict will have any influence in EU politics.

regenhuber said:

LOL
If it wasn't for Merkels version of RT called ARD and ZDF those numbers would be way down.
Schröder had the balls to take unpopular measures and straightened out Germany's economy and labor market. Regarding the SPD in its current state:
nothing of value was lost.

Amazing how people can't see what a massive L for Germany this "nothingburger" agreement represents.

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That is Trump level Fake News garbage right there, buddy.

boxoctosis said:

I know right! - it's an appalling graphic

- wrong (misleading) flag
- tiny small print at the bottom
- it solely attributes the lack of war between 6 specific states to the EU, while ignoring things like the progress of civilisation, the industrialisation of warfare and far greater consequences of entering a war, and nuclear weapons post 1945.

Any which way you look at that graphic, it's glib, myopic, and wrong. Incredible.

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That graphic is not wrong at all dude, it is accurate and contains all the context its strong message needs. This is in stark contrast to your claim that you embrace Brexit as a chance to build a more social UK whereas there is less than zero evidence that this will likely happen. Why else did Corbyn support Remain while anti-social conservatives like Rees-Mogg and the entire British boulevard press embrace Leave as the chance to free the 'entrepreneurial spirit' from the socialist shackles of EU bureaucracy?

Berry Phazon said:

That is Trump level Fake News garbage right there, buddy.

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Were the 2017 German elections also fake news?
Because Merkels CDU received a butt whipping, recorded the worst result in party history.

regenhuber said:

Were the 2017 German elections also fake news?
Because Merkels CDU received a butt whipping, recorded the worst result in party history.

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What has this to do with your ludicrous and frankly alt-right dog-whistle claim that our public broadcasters are government propaganda tools? Oh, nothing because this is whataboutism-trolling.

regenhuber said:

Were the 2017 German elections also fake news?
Because Merkels CDU received a butt whipping, recorded the worst result in party history.

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And the previous elections don't matter to you? 'Worst chancellor ever' is clearly nonsense hyperbole if you consider that she's been in the job for 12 years. I have very little sympathy for conservative arguments and conservative politicians in general and I despise conservative ideals and I have to say I'd rather have Merkel instead of someone even more conservative (and therefore unpalatable).

On topic now- these promises for international development aid for poor countries are meaningless. Politicians will put their head in the sand and ignore the fact that this money is lost to corruption rather than helping people. How would you make sure that the money goes to the intended places? Is there any way to even enforce this? This reminds me of the Algeria situation where the government will gladly take your free money and send people to their deaths in the desert.

Berry Phazon said:

What has this to do with your ludicrous and frankly alt-right dog-whistle claim that our public broadcasters are government propaganda tools? Oh, nothing because this is whataboutism-trolling.

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LOL
It a fucking ZDF Poll was cited in this thread and the election showed that their numbers don't mean shit.
If you would expand your horizon and compare Swiss, Austrian or UK publication coverage of Merkel to our ARD/ZDF cheerleading bullshit you'd know.

regenhuber said:

LOL
If it wasn't for Merkels version of RT called ARD and ZDF those numbers would be way down.

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Straight up conspiracy theorist over here who can't tell the difference between one of the biggest propanda outlets there is and the ARD.

Amazing what kind of dumb shit you people say to try to justify literal untruths.

And instead of answering people calling you out on it you deflect with "Well but the election went bad for the CDU!"

Real arguing in good faith over here.

regenhuber said:

LOL
If it wasn't for Merkels version of RT called ARD and ZDF those numbers would be way down.

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Oh wow, how embarassing. Might wanna check the numbers yourself next time before quoting bullshit you read on some conspiracy facebook group.

Took me about 30 seconds. The last poll before the last election from ZDF said that CDU would get 36% with a margin of error of 2 to 3%. The CDU ended up getting 33%. SPD was off by 1%, Left by 0,7%, Greens by 0,9%, FDP by 0,7% and AfD by 1,6%. Literally all of the numbers were within the projected margin of error.

I doubt it will cause the end, but it will definitely cause serious problems between member states if it is not handled responsibly. Merkel's inaction at the face of difficulty until the problem gets too big to be ignored is certainly part of the problem

Southern European countries should not be left alone to deal with this issue. It only causes resentment.

regenhuber said:

LOL
It a fucking ZDF Poll was cited in this thread and the election showed that their numbers don't mean shit.
If you would expand your horizon and compare Swiss, Austrian or UK publication coverage of Merkel to our ARD/ZDF cheerleading bullshit you'd know.

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Stop embarassing yourself by chatting shit.

I don't think so

SilentRob said:

Oh wow, how embarassing. Might wanna check the numbers yourself next time before quoting bullshit you read on some conspiracy facebook group.

Took me about 30 seconds. The last poll before the last election from ZDF said that CDU would get 36% with a margin of error of 2 to 3%. The CDU ended up getting 33%. SPD was off by 1%, Left by 0,7%, Greens by 0,9%, FDP by 0,7% and AfD by 1,6%. Literally all of the numbers were within the projected margin of error.

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Besorgte Bürger don't believe in polls.

Why is it always the same few "concerned" citizens shitting up and derailing every thread on this issue?

Italy, Spain, Greece were fucked geographically getting hit with the brunt of migrants via boats plus suffering at the same time massive youth unemployment with a recession recovery.

in normal peace and prosperity times, yeah every country can do more. But when you got youth unemployment at 20 - 25%, you have Germany breathing down your neck trying to take over your country via banks, recovery from 2008 crash going slower.... it is normal that citizens will be reluctant to help migrants under those circumstance.

And so many posters here from Germany keep on shitting on smaller EU countries. Jesus, you guys are really pushing it.

the condescension coming out of Germany towards smaller countries is too much.

I keep going back and forth and thinking about these last few years. Most of you are young and the world is a different place now but most things never change. Populist parties come and go and they use our inner fears to drive their agenda, but we need to remember that the damage they do today lasts generations. We must always strive to do the right thing. Merkel may have made a mistake by welcoming refugees, but it was the right mistake and history will treat Ms Merkel very well. She showed her humanity as any leader of a free world should.


https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/opinion/what-helmut-kohl-german-chancellor-taught.html

Axel Berg-Larsen said:

You somehow think preventing immigration will save lives? Do you think immigration like this is done for fun? Europe pulling up the draw-bridge and saying "fuck you, got mine" to the millions of people they have both exploited through economic abuse and colonialism, and deliberately fought wars against, will cause untold deaths. All because some people do not like seeing different skin colors on their streets, and can't handle that perhaps there are consequences for decades of economic hegemony.

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This is a silly position. You are not going to fix the world's problems by having everyone move to Europe and North America, you are simply going to make them terrible places as well.

It doesn't matter what position you have on white guilt, every country has the right to decide immigration policy, and it makes sense that only people that strengthen them be allowed in.

Having masses of uneducated men from a completely different background and with a high degree of religious fanaticism ingrained in them move in has always been a stupid idea, and Merkel is suffering from making that awful decision. I hope the EU manages to withstand the consequences.

Can you imagine hampering a country's development through violent imperialism and resource theft, destabilizing its government, and destroying its habitability with global warming, and then becoming upset when its people come to your nation to survive?

I think Europe will be fine. If they want all those migrants to go back to their countries, Europe better start heavily investing in the development of African countries. China has a major head start.

Axel Berg-Larsen said:

Europe pulling up the draw-bridge and saying "fuck you, got mine"

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The current economy makes that "got mine" at least more questionable than a decade ago, though. Also, Europe is not a monolithic country. Some countries have been dealing with immigration and integration for much longer, and have better infrastructures and welfare than others. In some other countries, massive, uncontrolled immigration is sure to cause a lot of social unrest and have profound effects on the job market. And many politicians, no matter if left or right, are absolutely unprepared to deal with that.

gutter_trash said:

Italy, Spain, Greece were fucked geographically getting hit with the brunt of migrants via boats plus suffering at the same time massive youth unemployment with a recession recovery.

in normal peace and prosperity times, yeah every country can do more. But when you got youth unemployment at 20 - 25%, you have Germany breathing down your neck trying to take over your country via banks, recovery from 2008 crash going slower.... it is normal that citizens will be reluctant to help migrants under those circumstance.

And so many posters here from Germany keep on shitting on smaller EU countries. Jesus, you guys are really pushing it.

the condescension coming out of Germany towards smaller countries is too much.

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Youth unemployment is, according to the stats I can see online, as of March

43% in Greece
34% in Spain
33% in Italy
6% in Germany

boxoctosis said:

Youth unemployment is, according to the stats I can see online, as of March

43% in Greece
34% in Spain
33% in Italy
6% in Germany

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I hope no one is making the case by using refugees as a reason for that absurd unemployment numbers that is those countries own doing.

A lot of countries could easily adjust current situations to their economies while other sit there and get shut down by incompetent policy makers and unions.

If you are rational, objective people, who care about numbers, then there is absolutely no discussion to be had about refugees or migrants causing joblessness.

TokyoJoe said:

I hope no one is making the case by using refugees as a reason for that absurd unemployment numbers that is those countries own doing.

A lot of countries could easily adjust current situations to their economies while other sit there and get shut down by incompetent policy makers and unions.

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You can't seriously expect a collapse in economy (pushed by northern EU reforms as well) to have no repercussions on electoral result. Regions that never voted anything but left for 70 years and where the far right had less than 1% at the last elections are now governed by the far right. You can use the right-winged excuse for so long.

Edit: apparently the Numbers in Deep poverty i had read were fake. Awaiting better ones

TokyoJoe said:

I hope no one is making the case by using refugees as a reason for that absurd unemployment numbers that is those countries own doing.

A lot of countries could easily adjust current situations to their economies while other sit there and get shut down by incompetent policy makers and unions.

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I'm just clarifying yer man gutter_trash numbers further up the thread is all.

What does your 2nd paragraph mean?

For whatever reason, there seems to be an influential part of the UK that kind of wishes that the EU breaks apart. I really don't know why, because it does not serve any purpose for the UK (neither as a member or a non member).

I am convined that the EU will not break apart within the next, say, 10 or 20 years. There is an array of problems, with immigration being the biggest topic right, but not the biggest problem actually (not even close). But after all is said and done most people, most businesses, most politicians know that the EU is a gift.
This dream some have that Poland or Hungary could leave the EU... why would they do that? Leaving the EU for these countries means a 100% sure recession, and a huge one, too. "We tanked the economy, whoopsy daisy" surely is a brillant headline to win elections.
Then there is the point of security. In times where Donald Trump says that he doesn't quite care about NATO, why on earth would an Eastern Europe country leave the EU? To make itself way more endangered by Russia? Again, totally stupid strategy.