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kjtc1979

Member
Nov 27, 2017
326
1. Multiple consoles per household. Households who bought 1 Switch for the household in Year 1 may decide to get another one for their partner or children during the Holiday seasons to take advantage of Mario Party and Smash's multiplayer functionalities.

This. When I bought my Switch, I assumed one per household would be enough because we can have separate user accounts and multiple docks.

1-2 punch of Smash and Pokemon, my 21 year old's most played franchises, made my future time with my own console seem shaky, so I bought my son his own Switch. The only reason the Wii U is still set up in the living room is because his friends play Smash every day.
 

asd202

Enlightened
Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,539
For reference the mighty PS4 only barely eked out 20 million 1 fiscal year since it's been on the market. It's best year ever in 2016.

PS4 in terms of shipments has had 19.9 in the first year and 19.4 two times so yeah barely. It also sold through over 20 million in 2017 which is even more impressive.
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,342
I don't know where you guarantee comes from but you should check it because it's most certainly very wrong.
We had people saying that Switch sales would suddenly fall off a cliff after a record first year because all Hardcore Nintendo fans already bought one.

Guess the spirit lives on in one form or another.
 

GMM

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,481
It seems like most people who want Smash already has a Switch for Mario and Zelda, so i'm very curious if the "Let's Go" Pokemon games will be huge hitters seeing how those games might not neccesarily be what people want from a Pokemon game.
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
i really don't understand the argument that people only buy consoles for the new software that just came out. that somehow they didn't buy a switch just because every single game that came out up to this point wasn't good for them and now they'll buy one for pokemon. people buy consoles when they can/want/feel like it, and they'll look at a combination of new and already released games. not everyone who wants to play mario/zelda/etc has already bought a switch. if that was true no one would buy ps4 anymore because up to now there HAD to be a game that appealed to the person who wants to buy it.
saying everyone who wants smash already owns switch or stuff like that makes no sense.
tldr not everyone who wants a switch based on the games in the market has already bought the console yet.

Make it a year because i won't be wrong.
can mods actually make this happen? are year long bans even a thing? are ban bets legal here?
 
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Plum

Member
May 31, 2018
17,271
It seems like most people who want Smash already has a Switch for Mario and Zelda, so i'm very curious if the "Let's Go" Pokemon games will be huge hitters seeing how those games might not neccesarily be what people want from a Pokemon game.

Do you have any proof for the first statement? God of War on the PS4 shows that even exclusives very late into a console's life-cycle can have a major impact on hardware sales, what reason is there to suggest a massive franchise like Smash wouldn't make an impact on a highly successful console like the Switch's 2nd year?

As for the Pokemon statement, it might not be what the hardcore fans want but it's the casual fans the game is aiming itself at and I'm almost certain they're going to make it a huge hit.
 

asd202

Enlightened
Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,539
The thing with Pokemon I think it will do well right out of the gate but from what I saw of the game it just looks disappointing and If reviews will reflect that this may hurt it's legs. Smash will Smash but reception of this Pokemon game is key for Nintendo shipments target. Will be interesting to see.
 
OP
OP
Pablo Mesa

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
PS4 in terms of shipments has had 19.9 in the first year and 19.4 two times so yeah barely. It also sold through over 20 million in 2017 which is even more impressive.
you are confusing 12 month release with Fiscal Year, going by Fiscal Year, PS4 best year was 20M and that was like the 3rd-4th year.

whats the difference between counting it Fiscal instead ? PS4 release November, if you count in 12 months gap, you are counting in November to November basically 1.5-2 Holiday season per 12 months,. Fiscal Yeat is April to March.

Launch 2013 - March 2014 = 7.5M shipped
April 2014 - March 2015 = 14.8M Shipped
April 2015 - March 2016 = 17.7M Shipped
April 2016 - March 2017 = 20M Shipped
April 2017 - March 2018 = 19M Shipped


It seems like most people who want Smash already has a Switch for Mario and Zelda,
where does this kind of reasoning even come from??
 
OP
OP
Pablo Mesa

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
nah, if you want smash that means you already have a switch. you probably don't even know it, but check your room, there's a switch somewhere in there.
1auabm.jpg
 

asd202

Enlightened
Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,539
you are confusing 12 month release with Fiscal Year, going by Fiscal Year, PS4 best year was 20M and that was like the 3rd-4th year.

whats the difference between counting it Fiscal instead ? PS4 release November, if you count in 12 months gap, you are counting in November to November basically 1.5-2 Holiday season per 12 months,. Fiscal Yeat is April to March.

Launch 2013 - March 2014 = 7.5M shipped
April 2014 - March 2015 = 14.8M Shipped
April 2015 - March 2016 = 17.7M Shipped
April 2016 - March 2017 = 20M Shipped
April 2017 - March 2018 = 19M Shipped

Oh okay that makes sense. I was comparing it launch aligned.
 
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Jacknapes

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,168
Newport, South Wales
Out of Smash, Mario Party and the new Pokemon coming this year. Smash will be the biggest seller for the Switch, followed by Pokemon and Mario Party. Pokemon will be a surprise hit, as it's perfectly catered for those who may not have played on a console and this is a good introduction for them to get a Switch.
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
People lose sight of the fact that the debate around Switch this year is whether it will meet its goal of the biggest fiscal year of the generation (20 million units) or fall a little short of it. That only 18 million sold in a year would be seen as a flop speaks volumes about how Nintendo has turned it around this generation.

Its pretty much always like that with Nintendo.

Their "flops" would be seen as successes if it were any other company.

3DS sells 70m units, almost double what XB1 did, and almost 5 times what Vita did, but its a Flop since DS sold 150m.

Nintendo games are flops if they dont sell millions upon million, when other publishers would wish for a Niche game such as Arms/Xenoblade to sell as much as they did.

People only compare to the biggest successes, since just selling ok basically means they should stop selling hardware altogether.
 

unicornKnight

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,163
Athens, Greece
Make it a year because i won't be wrong.
Can't wait for the "at that point no one expected they'd go ahead and release X, Y, Z games so I was right and you were just lucky" post the day they publish FY numbers.

I think Super Mario party will be the wild card in this. The game can be an average seller with 2 million sold or can be a juggernaut with 9 million sold.
If it ends up being Nintendo AAA quality and not usual Mario Party (Hudson, ND Cube) quality it could be really something.
 
OP
OP
Pablo Mesa

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
Out of Smash, Mario Party and the new Pokemon coming this year. Smash will be the biggest seller for the Switch, followed by Pokemon and Mario Party. Pokemon will be a surprise hit, as it's perfectly catered for those who may not have played on a console and this is a good introduction for them to get a Switch.
I think MP will be an underdog sales, it usually sells in the 2M range, but DS and Wii one sold in the 9M range... also there might actually be a "demand" for this party games in Switch, I mean, 1-2Switch sold 2.29M units in 1 year..


Its pretty much always like that with Nintendo.

Their "flops" would be seen as successes if it were any other company.

3DS sells 70m units, almost double what XB1 did, and almost 5 times what Vita did, but its a Flop since DS sold 150m.

Nintendo games are flops if they dont sell millions upon million, when other publishers would wish for a Niche game such as Arms/Xenoblade to sell as much as they did.

People only compare to the biggest successes, since just selling ok basically means they should stop selling hardware altogether.
Such is the Nintendo Curse

"at that point no one expected they'd go ahead and release X, Y, Z games so I was right and you were just lucky"
Funny enough we really dont know anything for Winter (Jan to March) line up
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
Its pretty much always like that with Nintendo.

Their "flops" would be seen as successes if it were any other company.

3DS sells 70m units, almost double what XB1 did, and almost 5 times what Vita did, but its a Flop since DS sold 150m.

Nintendo games are flops if they dont sell millions upon million, when other publishers would wish for a Niche game such as Arms/Xenoblade to sell as much as they did.

People only compare to the biggest successes, since just selling ok basically means they should stop selling hardware altogether.
good thing actual success isn't determined by some forum posters cuz otherwise they have reason after reason why any nintendo success story is actually a flop.
 

Jacknapes

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,168
Newport, South Wales
I think MP will be an underdog sales, it usually sells in the 2M range, but DS and Wii one sold in the 9M range... also there might actually be a "demand" for this party games in Switch, I mean, 1-2Switch sold 2.29M units in 1 year..

I still believe 1-2 Switch should have been bundled with the Switch itself, same as Nintendo Land was with the WiiU Premium for a while. Perfect game to showcase the HD Rumble and the Switch features.
 

GMM

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,481
where does this kind of reasoning even come from??

There is no doubt that Smash will move hardware since there is still a ton of people who haven't bought into the Switch and Smash could be a good reason for them to do so, Smash to me at least just seems to have a lot of overlap with the more hardcore Nintendo following that would be more inclined to buy into the system early on to play things like Zelda. Smash will from a software perspective sell a ton of games like Zelda and Mario did before it, I'm just not convinced more people would buy a new games console for it compared to something like Pokemon.

That being said, i am super interested in seeing how Pokemon is recieved and if it can light the world on fire like the games that came before it, Pokemon to me absolutely seems like bigger deal when it comes to selling the Switch console to demographics that haven't bought into it just yet.
 

Łazy

Member
Nov 1, 2017
5,249
We had people saying that Switch sales would suddenly fall off a cliff after a record first year because all Hardcore Nintendo fans already bought one.

Guess the spirit lives on in one form or another.
So much fan-fiction just for the Switch.
I guess this is another proof of success.
 

BassForever

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
29,915
CT
I think Super Mario party will be the wild card in this. The game can be an average seller with 2 million sold or can be a juggernaut with 9 million sold.

Mario Party 10 had the second biggest opening for the series behind MP8 and sold over 2 million copies on wiiu.

On the last successful console the Wii Mario Party 8 sold over 7.5 million and Mario Party 9 sold over 3 million iirc. Mario party ds also sold over 9 million copies.

I think it's more likely then not Super Mario Party clears Mario Party 10's lifetime sales, I'd argue it's more likely then not by the end of the switch's life it'll be in the top 3 best selling Mario Party games.
 

Watershed

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,810
Switch sales are going to be insane this holiday. Smash and Pokemon are going to drive demand better than any other 1-2 combo I can think of.
 
I feel like that is a silly question as Nintendo always ramps up shipments during the holidays (so long as manufacturing isn't an issue as it was after launch). Switch is going to have an amazing holiday.
people are crazy. reading all this talk if price drops, revisions, bad lineups, etc you would think switch is a failing platform in its fifth year in the market
Yeah, I don't know what's up with folks speaking this nonsense. But that's not the only angle either. We also get many threads about 'no AAA games on Switch', 'here's a list of indies not coming to Switch', etc. It's like a lot of anti-passion toward the Switch and I'm not sure why. Then, you have the folks who know Switch is not as powerful as the other two consoles but still need to bash any Switch port for not performing as well as the versions on those more powerful consoles - which makes absolutely no sense.

It's better than the Wii days atleast, but I think some people just don't like Nintendo, and that's fine; but the issue is some of these hate that other people are enjoying the Switch. So they act out. I hope it gets better.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
32,721
3. Pokemon Go had hundreds of millions of downloads and had 65M active users in 2017. Many of these folks are not console gamers but have USD500-800 phones, so they may consider getting a Switch to continue their Pokemon experience, especially since they can transfer pokemon over.
This is the thing people are sleeping on. If any percentage of these guys buy a Switch, in addition to the already expected sales given the line-up, the numbers will go through the roof. Even a few percentage points is millions of units sold.
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
This is the thing people are sleeping on. If any percentage of these guys buy a Switch, in addition to the already expected sales given the line-up, the numbers will go through the roof. Even a few percentage points is millions of units sold.

Going from the latest numbers we have for Go, which is from May 2018, if 1% of active Go players buy Lets Go and an switch that would already be 14.7 million units sold right there, which would put Switch well above 20m in the FY, and lets go well above what the usual Pokemon Remake sells, and closing in on New gen level of sales.
 

goldenpp73

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
2,144
Pokemon, maybe, but the vast, vast majority of people who will buy Smash already have a Switch, I guarantee you.

Prepare to be surprised. Smash U and 3DS combined sold about as much as switch has save a few million, it will push units in the additional millions unless you think this Smash will flop.
 

Sander VF

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
25,936
Tbilisi, Georgia
I guess the train of thought here is that because Smash contains Nintendo characters, anyone who cares about the series must have bought a Nintendo console already.
 

mutantmagnet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,401
This is the thing people are sleeping on. If any percentage of these guys buy a Switch, in addition to the already expected sales given the line-up, the numbers will go through the roof. Even a few percentage points is millions of units sold.
Even 3% of the active user base is 2 million sold and there is no chance people into Go for an entire year are going to be disinterested in a huge expansion on the way they play.
 

Spork4000

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
8,488
I'm amazed that a year with Pokemon and Smash is considered a down year by so many, Smash by itself has been an event of every Nintendo console sense Melee.

I mean just out of exclusive totally new games switch has Mario party, Mario tennis, Kirby, smash and Pokémon let's go. That's five first party games, even if none of them are your cup of tea, objectively that's a ton in one year.