Quinnipiac poll finds Dems +9 in the GCB, finds a 33/34 pt gender gap in both GCB and VA-Sen races

Kirblar · Jul 2, 2018

Quinnipiac (who were the only pollsters to nail the VA-Gov race in 2017) just released a poll showing Dems +9 in the Generic Congressional Ballot. They've also released a poll showing Tim Kaine +18 against his opponent, the neoConfederate Corey Stewart, in Virginia's Senate election.

Neither of these numbers is all that surprising (though both are great news for Democrats. The shocking part is in the gender gaps they are finding in both the national and state level races. In the GCB, QP is finding Men +8 R, women +25 D, a difference of 33 points. In the VA-Sen race QP is finding Men +0, women +34, a difference of 34 points.

Somewhat suprisingly, QP found almost no difference w/ Roe v Wade support across genders- Men support it 61/32, Women 65/30. But, much less surprisingly, that support of Roe v Wade doesn't appear to actually translate into votes for the party backing it for a large portion of male voters.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2553 National Polling details

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2552 Virginia Polling details

Men agree 61 - 32 percent, while women agree 65 - 30 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Republicans disagree with Roe v. Wade 58 - 36 percent. Every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group agrees.

FunkyMonkey · Jul 2, 2018

whew at the dem numbers and whewwwwwwww at that gender gap. nov looking good

Invisible Cities · Jul 2, 2018

The so-called imminent civil war is going to be fought in our bedrooms

kris. · Jul 2, 2018

This is good news, but don't let this kind of thing lull you into a sense of complacency.

hodayathink · Jul 2, 2018

The idea that the "Dems are in disarray" is so overblown that I occasionally wonder if people are really paying attention to the polls at all.

Skelepuzzle · Jul 2, 2018

Damn, that gender gap. No wonder incels are right wing, what self respecting woman wants to tolerate their shit.

Kirblar · Jul 2, 2018

hodayathink said:
The idea that the "Dems are in disarray" is so overblown that I occasionally wonder if people are really paying attention to the polls at all.

Political journalism is overwhelmingly male. Online forums like here or Reddit are overwhelmingly male. :thinkingemoji:

PhazonBlonde · Jul 2, 2018

and men wonder why we complain about them -_-;

(In general, you guys on Era are mostly awesome)

Skinny Pete · Jul 2, 2018

Remember to Vote still everyone!

Sho_Nuff82 · Jul 2, 2018

Men agree with Roe v Wade, but Republican men don't think it's worth protecting.

Men will publicly tsk at a Roy Moore, but vote for him anyway.

Volimar · Jul 2, 2018

The lesson doesn't change because one might like the results. Don't trust single polls. Follow aggregates. Follow trends. Don't ever get complacent.

Steeped in a Sea of Games · Jul 2, 2018

And now you know why certain segments like to attack women so much. They're truly afraid of them.

Volimar · Jul 2, 2018

Skelepuzzle said:
Damn, that gender gap. No wonder incels are right wing, what self respecting woman wants to tolerate their shit.

2016 would like to have a word with you about white women.

Kirblar · Jul 2, 2018

Sho_Nuff82 said:
Men agree with Roe v Wade, but Republican men don't think it's worth protecting.

Men will publicly tsk at a Roy Moore, but vote for him anyway.

Many libertarian men "agree" on social issues, but vote with their (perception) of their wallets.

Volimar said:
The lesson doesn't change because one might like the results. Don't trust single polls. Follow aggregates. Follow trends. Don't ever get complacent.

The polling aggregates are around +7 now. This isn't unexpected, the Pres's party almost always loses ground in the midterm election year. But yes, everyone needs to vote.

Skelepuzzle · Jul 2, 2018

Volimar said:
2016 would like to have a word with you about white women.

That's fair. I'm married to an amazing one so my view is clouded.

kadotsu · Jul 2, 2018

Wait, are you telling me that not appealing to the 10-20 neoconservative never Trump Republicans didn't destroy the chances of the Democratic party in elections. Who would have guessed? It did work so well in the 2016 general. Maybe there is something about this "standing up for the poor and disenfranchised" after all and the more left leaning party's leadership shouldn't take advice from conservative columnists.

Buzzman · Jul 2, 2018

hodayathink said:
The idea that the "Dems are in disarray" is so overblown that I occasionally wonder if people are really paying attention to the polls at all.

I mean, nobody would really call Trumps campaign organized or efficient, but he still won. Just because the party itself is in disarray doesn't mean they're not getting votes.

Quixzlizx · Jul 2, 2018

Hopefully it wasn't as much of a blowout with college-educated men qq

PhazonBlonde · Jul 2, 2018

Volimar said:
2016 would like to have a word with you about white women.

This is also true. I can't see how my fellow white ladies voted for a dude who brags about grabbing women by the pussy shits so frustrating

Kirblar · Jul 2, 2018

kadotsu said:
Wait, are you telling me that not appealing to the 10-20 neoconservative never Trump Republicans didn't destroy the chances of the Democratic party in elections. Who would have guessed? It did work so well in the 2016 general. Maybe there is something about this "standing up for the poor and disenfranchised" after all and the more left leaning party leadership shouldn't take advice from Conservative columnists.

NeoCons were already flipping hard to Hillary in the last election for the most part- they're much more Rockefeller Republican. It's why we're seeing smaller gains in the areas that went hard for Hillary - we got close to topping off those areas last cycle while the areas the swung Trump are where the large backlashes will be.

You can appeal to both groups- just run local candidates/platforms tailored to them. This does however, mean that the national platform is gonna be the lowest common denominator in order to allow local candidates flexibility.

GrooveCommand · Jul 2, 2018

Invisible Cities said:
The so-called imminent civil war is going to be fought in our bedrooms

The idea of a civil war is preposterous to me. As we have found out, the only thing we can do that really matters at all is vote/protest/rally.

I just hope we don't forget all these lessons we're learning about what happens when you don't vote.

Slayven · Jul 2, 2018

GOP losing white women would be a death blow

VectorPrime · Jul 2, 2018

Don't forget this part.

UberTag · Jul 2, 2018

White men suck ass. No surprises on that point. But the gender gap in the polling SCREAMS out to me that Democrats ought to seriously look at having a man win the nomination for 2020... because women are going to be on board no matter what and that'll take chauvinism out of the equation from a country that clearly seems to not be able to handle the idea of a woman in charge. Not yet, at least.

Get a strong woman as the vice-presidential name on the ticket and make the breakthrough there. And, if the Dems do elect to ride or die with a relic like Biden or Sanders for a single presidential term - make sure it's a woman that can be primed to take over the presidency in 2024... namely Gillibrand or Harris. I'm still Team Warren but her age will be a liability in 2024... and I say this despite the fact that we're seeing Maxine Waters own like a boss at age 79.

Kirblar · Jul 2, 2018

UberTag said:
White men suck ass. No surprises on that point. But the gender gap in the polling SCREAMS out to me that Democrats ought to seriously look at having a man win the nomination for 2020... because women are going to be on board no matter what and that'll take chauvinism out of the equation from a country that clearly seems to not be able to handle the idea of a woman in charge. Not yet, at least.

Get a strong woman as the vice-presidential name on the ticket and make the breakthrough there. And, if the Dems do elect to ride or die with a relic like Biden or Sanders for a single presidential term - make sure it's a woman that can be primed to take over the presidency in 2024... namely Gillibrand or Harris. I'm still Team Warren but her age will be a liability in 2024... and I say this despite the fact that we're seeing Maxine Waters own like a boss at age 79.

I would take a slightly different approach- female nominee for the base, weed legalization for the men.

hodayathink · Jul 2, 2018

UberTag said:
White men suck ass. No surprises on that point. But the gender gap in the polling SCREAMS out to me that Democrats ought to seriously look at having a man win the nomination for 2020... because women are going to be on board no matter what and that'll take chauvinism out of the equation from a country that clearly seems to not be able to handle the idea of a woman in charge. Not yet, at least.

Get a strong woman as the vice-presidential name on the ticket and make the breakthrough there. And, if the Dems do elect to ride or die with a relic like Biden or Sanders for a single presidential term - make sure it's a woman that can be primed to take over the presidency in 2024... namely Gillibrand or Harris. I'm still Team Warren but her age will be a liability in 2024... and I say this despite the fact that we're seeing Maxine Waters own like a boss at age 79.

No. Just....no. Hillary's biggest problem wasn't that she was a woman. Her biggest problem was the while she looked "great" as a candidate on paper, people just did not like her on a personal level. A lot of that was Republican smearing for decades, but some of it was just about her personality. There's no need for her setback to mean that we can't run a woman in 2020 if she's the best candidate.

Also, "women will be on board in 2020 no matter who you nominate" is a really good way to lower the enthusiasm gap among women.

Bernd Lauert · Jul 2, 2018

Hm I wonder why there's such a huge gender gap...

UberTag said:
White men suck ass.

Oh I see.

cdyhybrid · Jul 2, 2018

Does this mean white women learned their lesson from 2016?

UberTag · Jul 2, 2018

hodayathink said:
Also, "women will be on board in 2020 no matter who you nominate" is a really good way to lower the enthusiasm gap among women.

That's if you "say" it out loud... which Democratic pundits absolutely should not do. Nor should they be taken for granted... as was clearly done in 2016. And speaking of taking it for granted, people need to stop dismissing the potency of the right-wing propaganda machine with "oh they really suck but they were able to change the messaging on Hilary because they attacked her 24/7 since the first day Fox News went on the air and they can't possibly focus their rage and poison against anyone else so don't fret".

That seems like a difficult argument to make when Quinnipiac is highlighting a gender gap of 33 points in 2018 when Hillary should not even be part of the equation. What does the right's successful demonization of Hillary have to do with a 33-point difference today?

And to touch on the other point, not every guy wants to smoke up. And that issue goes away if Republicans promise to push through weed legalization as well.

Skelepuzzle · Jul 2, 2018

Bernd Lauert said:
Hm I wonder why there's such a huge gender gap...

Oh I see.

Fragile egos are the reason indeed.

Polaroid_64 · Jul 2, 2018

Women smarter than men confirmed.

Brakke · Jul 2, 2018

Deadly Cyclone · Jul 2, 2018

cdyhybrid said:
Does this mean white women learned their lesson from 2016?

Maybe the ones that aren't calling the cops on black people doing normal everyday things?

Kirblar · Jul 2, 2018

UberTag said:
That's if you "say" it out loud... which Democratic pundits absolutely should not do. Nor should they be taken for granted... as was clearly done in 2016. And speaking of taking it for granted, people need to stop dismissing the potency of the right-wing propaganda machine with "oh they really suck but they were able to change the messaging on Hilary because they attacked her 24/7 since the first day Fox News went on the air and they can't possibly focus their rage and poison against anyone else so don't fret".

That seems like a difficult argument to make when Quinnipiac is highlighting a gender gap of 33 points today in 2018 when Hillary should not even be part of the equation. What does the right's successful demonization of Hillary have to do with a 33-point difference today?

And to touch on the other point, not every guy wants to smoke up. And that issue goes away if Republicans promise to push through weed legalization as well.

Not everyone does, no, but if you're looking to juice turnout w/ male voters, there's a real gender gap on that issue and history's pushing that direction anyway. OK just had a gigantic primary turnout w/ it on the ballot.

Just don't waste it on these midterms, save it for the 2020 nominee. It'll only really work once.

Jack Remington · Jul 2, 2018

hodayathink said:
No. Just....no. Hillary's biggest problem wasn't that she was a woman. Her biggest problem was the while she looked "great" as a candidate on paper, people just did not like her on a personal level. A lot of that was Republican smearing for decades, but some of it was just about her personality. There's no need for her setback to mean that we can't run a woman in 2020 if she's the best candidate.

Also, "women will be on board in 2020 no matter who you nominate" is a really good way to lower the enthusiasm gap among women.

Eh, most of the not liking her on a personal level came from the fact that she was a woman.

MotionBlue · Jul 2, 2018

kris. said:
This is good news, but don't let this kind of thing lull you into a sense of complacency.

Flashbacks to every Poll calling for a Hillary landslide victory.

UberTag · Jul 2, 2018

If Republicans are dumb enough not to own legalization of pot and let Dems latch onto it on their platform, they deserve to lose in 2020.

Titik · Jul 2, 2018

hodayathink said:
The idea that the "Dems are in disarray" is so overblown that I occasionally wonder if people are really paying attention to the polls at all.

Both sides are the same narrative.Gotta keep the horse race going.

I'm okay with it, keeps Democrats on thier toes.

Nacho · Jul 2, 2018

Every time I see polls I'm reminded of why white men are so dangerous. Yikes.

Fulminator · Jul 2, 2018

Ugh, men +8 republican just sucks.

Overall good news though. As long as the base stays energized I have high hopes for November.

onadesertedisland · Jul 2, 2018

I dislike polls that come out so early and show such a lead. This is how we lost in 2016. We should feel that we're going to lose everything, rather than patting each other on the shoulder. There are about four months to go. Don't get cocky, don't get complacent. We engage, we inform, we phone bank, we go door to door. This battle hasn't even started yet.

LegendofJoe · Jul 2, 2018

Invisible Cities said:
The so-called imminent civil war is going to be fought in our bedrooms

I've got my money on women, they're smarter and more patient than we are.

SK4TE · Jul 2, 2018

I agree with him, they are making ICE the enemy instead of the people signing the laws. Trump and Sessions own this.

Polaroid_64 · Jul 2, 2018

A majority of my fellow white American men are the most fragile snowflake entitled whining little bitches.

Until more of us realize that the world doesn't revolve only around us and the other people's struggles are in fact real, this country will continue to slide backwards.

Empathy and understanding shouldn't be so difficult.

Morrigan · Jul 2, 2018

hodayathink said:
people just did not like her on a personal level. A lot of that was Republican smearing for decades, but some of it was just about her personality.

This was largely influenced by institutional sexism, though. Women are just not admired or liked the way men are for showing similar amounts of ambition or leadership.

Nude_Tayne · Jul 2, 2018

Hopefully this time when the Dems get more votes in the House they actually get to take it.

Ramala · Jul 2, 2018

The ladies are gonna save us!

VectorPrime · Jul 2, 2018

MotionBlue said:
Flashbacks to every Poll calling for a Hillary landslide victory.

For the billionth time the polls were right.

Mimosa97 · Jul 2, 2018

PhazonBlonde said:
and men wonder why we complain about them -_-;

(In general, you guys on Era are mostly awesome)

Didn't Hillary lose the female vote? But yeah generally it's sickening how many men like Trump. Never met a female Trump supporter here in Canada but I've met a few men.

LegendofJoe · Jul 2, 2018

Women with terrible conservative SOs should organize a nationwide sex strike. There are a lot of white, liberal leaning women with dumb as rocks conservative husbands. My family has several examples, both by blood AND by marriage .

Quinnipiac poll finds Dems +9 in the GCB, finds a 33/34 pt gender gap in both GCB and VA-Sen races

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