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Wkd Box Office - 6•29-7•1•18 - Fallen Kingdom Repeats #1. Sicario beats tracking. Drew is fine too.

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WhiteRabbitEXE

WhiteRabbitEXE

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Oct 25, 2017
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Benji said:
Yeah I mean, not to bring up Star Wars yet again, but if Fallen Kingdom's performance is worrying for Universal, I would have to think TLJ and Solo would be downright panic inducing for Disney / Lucasfilm (and I don't think they are or should be)
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There's a big difference between a Star Wars saga trilogy and a Jurassic trilogy. We have every reason to believe the Episode IX will follow the same trend as previous Star Wars trilogy closers and come up significantly above the middle act, closer to the first film in the trilogy. We have no reason to believe the same case will hold for Jurassic World 3. I mean, we literally have precedence to look at in either case.

Solo's non-comparable to Jurassic because it's a spin-off and had entirely different context, but even then it's not like LFL is just going to ignore what happened with that film.

I'm not saying Universal is running around with their head cut off right now, but given all of the context specific to the franchise and Universal as a whole right now, I see no reason to believe it's unreasonable to state Universal isn't particularly thrilled with the outcome at the moment, and is at least considering making some change ups (specifically in the creative department - I'm increasingly of the mind that Trevorrow's days are numbered unless Spielberg pulls for him HARD. He was already fired from Star Wars by the wife of Jurassic's producer).
 
berzeli

berzeli

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Oct 25, 2017
3,384
Prompto said:
...

I may start watching Zoo
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Yes!
Just make sure the bees don't get you
zoobees.gif

Rvaan said:
Wait why was there someone in the car?
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He was a prisoner trying to escape from the high tech science plane. Duh.




...
the thing is that I haven't really posted the truly outlandish shit this show pulls. (outside of that initial gif of that rhino)
Just something to keep in mind


also, sorry kswiston but this is now the OT for Zoo.
 
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Benji

Benji

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WhiteRabbitEXE said:
There's a big difference between a Star Wars saga trilogy and a Jurassic trilogy. We have every reason to believe the Episode IX will follow the same trend as previous Star Wars trilogy closers and come up significantly above the middle act, closer to the first film in the trilogy. We have no reason to believe the same case will hold for Jurassic World 3.

Solo's non-comparable to Jurassic because it's a spin-off.
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I'm not entirely sure we should even believe that Episode IX is going to finish closer to TFA than TLJ honestly. I think it will be higher than TLJ but likely more around 1.5B
 
Icemonk191

Icemonk191

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Oct 25, 2017
3,814
RolandGunner said:
If JW2 hits $1.1B, which seems pretty likely, it will have a smaller percentage drop from 1 than TFA -> TLJ.
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So if Universal "supposedly" expected a $500 million increase with FK than clearly Disney expected TLJ to make at least $2.5 billion.

Wow! TLJ is such a bomb!/s

Edit: Ok so JW made more money than I thought so my numbers don't add up. But my general point still stands.
 
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Benji

Benji

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Seeya said:
It's not even a certainty that IX finishes over TLJ
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I agree. I think it will, mostly because JJ bringing renewed good will to the franchise (ironically considering how he was getting some flak for the TFA before TLJ came out). But I think the idea that Star Wars is going to jump back to 1.7B - 1.8B or higher is pretty unlikely. I just don't see where that kind of growth is going to come from. Certainly not from international audiences and the idea that we will see any Star Wars film get anywhere near TFA domestic gross anytime soon is unrealistic to me.
 
Schlorgan

Schlorgan

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Oct 25, 2017
14,932
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Someone on Facebook told me (with what seemed like a straight face) that Kennedy should be fired as Solo lost as much money as all of the Disney Star Wars movies' budgets combined.

Wat.

He went so far off the beaten path that he said that Kennedy made Mark Hamill cry because she ruined Luke and shot down Abram's wish of directing all 3 movies. I hope he was joking but I just can't tell anymore.

Edit: he was being completely serious.
 
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DemonCarnotaur

DemonCarnotaur

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Oct 25, 2017
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WhiteRabbitEXE said:
I didn't say it was. In fact, I explicitly stated that in isolation it's a great showing. But things don't exist in isolation.

You're Universal. You're looking at your flagship franchise. You're thinking about the long-term viability of a franchise you just massively reinvested in across your divisions. It just took at 33% dive. It reviewed poorly and had less than stellar audience reactions. You're not a little concerned about what the future holds for the IP?

Let's put it this way - what reason does anyone have to believe the next film will do anything but go down further? In a day and age when everything is about tentpoles, Fast & the Furious has peaked and Universal's cinematic universe attempt was stillborn twice over. Their parent company has almost certainly failed to acquire 20th Century Fox. They've sunk a lot into Jurassic and they're likely not fans of the franchise being shelved again. If they think this is the beginning of trend, they're absolutely not happy right now.
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This.

I'm not saying they're not OK with things. It's making solid money.

But it didn't quite come close to the most weirdly optimistic of targets. The franchise is big for them, and they're pushing it as a big transmedia franchise. It's not just a summer blockbuster sequel for the studio.

I dunno. Maybe Uni really didn't believe it would hit 2 bil - maybe the only said that to hook license partners. But all the license partners have said that exact # over the past 2 years or so.
 

Seeya

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Oct 27, 2017
7,984
WhiteRabbitEXE said:
JJ marketing and a 19 month gap from the last movie, I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't top TLJ by at least a little bit.
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Benji said:
I agree. I think it will, mostly because JJ bringing renewed good will to the franchise (ironically considering how he was getting some flak for the TFA before TLJ came out). But I think the idea that Star Wars is going to jump back to 1.7B - 1.8B or higher is pretty unlikely. I just don't see where that kind of growth is going to come from. Certainly not from international audiences and the idea that we will see any Star Wars film get anywhere near TFA domestic gross anytime soon is unrealistic to me.
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Once Solo has finished its run I'm planning on taking an inventory of how the Diney era of the franchise has done overseas picture to picture so we can get idea of what the international market might do for IX. We saw some markets that didn't much seem to care if the next SW movie was a story or part of the trilogy and had generally decreasing returns per entry. Figuring out how many of said markets are in the mix should give us a better indication of IXs relative performance.

Solo had ghastly international numbers, and while I'm not saying that IX would logically come in under Solo in those weaker markets, I am saying that I don't think a trilogy ending bump in softer or weak markets will likely result in IX exceeding what TLJ did.

I agree that it's there no sure bet at the moment, though without looking at the data yet my gut leans to the international market making IX come in under/flat even if DOM comes in over TLJ. Once I've taken a look I'll make a pie chart or something.
 
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denx

denx

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There's no way Universal was seriously expecting Fallen Kingdom to do 2b. That's just insanity. The current numbers are pretty good for the franchise.

Btw, I went to see FK with no expectations and came out reasonably pleased. It's not great or anything but I like that it brings the more sci-fi elements of the franchise to the fore. I'm actually curious where they're going with JW3.
 
TerminusFox

TerminusFox

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Oct 27, 2017
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Benji said:
I agree. I think it will, mostly because JJ bringing renewed good will to the franchise (ironically considering how he was getting some flak for the TFA before TLJ came out). But I think the idea that Star Wars is going to jump back to 1.7B - 1.8B or higher is pretty unlikely. I just don't see where that kind of growth is going to come from. Certainly not from international audiences and the idea that we will see any Star Wars film get anywhere near TFA domestic gross anytime soon is unrealistic to me.
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If, and it's a big if, XI comes in under TLJ, there's no denying that the brand has some significant damage, and Disney will course correct hard. The problem is...even IF XI preforms above expectations, how do you sustain it?
 
Benji

Benji

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Hero said:
So... Ant-Man over 100 million OW?
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Nah I'm thinking between 72-77m opening. Global finish somewhere around $625-650m

ShadowFox said:
If, and it's a big if, XI comes in under TLJ, there's no denying that the brand has some significant damage, and Disney will course correct hard. The problem is...even IF XI preforms above expectations, how do you sustain it?
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If IX somehow comes in under TLJ, then yeah. Iger is gonna start firing people
 

Seeya

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Benji said:
If IX somehow comes in under TLJ, then yeah. Iger is gonna start firing people
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I wouldn't be surprised if they over spend on marketing compared to TLJ or even TFA to try and offset that possibility. The optics would be disastrous. Still, I think success or failure on that front might be out of their hands so to speak, it depends largely on the mood of the international market and how hungry they are for the IP, trailers or marketing be damned.
 
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denx

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My prediction is that Ant-Man and the Wasp will be very close to 100m. Wheter it will come under or above that tho I could'nt say. Like I said, it's gonna be close.
 
denx

denx

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If IX is well received by audiences and doesn't cause the divide that TLJ did, then I can see that movie doing between 1.3b to 1.5b.

If it's not well received or proves to be yet another divisive entry, I can see it dipping below TLJ numbers.
 
Laserdisk

Laserdisk

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Benji said:
No? The third entry was up from the second installment in both the original trilogy and the prequels. If IX were to come under TLJ (which I dont think it will mind you) it would be a disaster for Lucasfilm
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They all made less than the first, and a disaster? Even with Hollywood accounting these films are making bank.
 
Benji

Benji

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Laserdisk said:
They all made less than the first, and a disaster? Even with Hollywood accounting these films are making bank.
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Yes a disaster. There is no other way to phrase it.

If Lucasfilm go from the box office of TFA followed by the spin off Rogue One, doing what it did, with TLJ drop, to Solo outright bombing, to episode IX coming in under TLJ it's a disaster.

If IX made less than TLJ that means it's going to come in somewhere under 1.3 Billion meaning lost revenue between Episode VII and Episode IX in potentially $800 million or more
 
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Laserdisk

Laserdisk

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Benji said:
Yes a disaster. There is no other way to phrase it.

If Lucasfilm go from the box office of TFA followed by the spin off Rogue One, doing what it did, with TLJ drop, to Solo outright bombing, to episode IX coming in under TLJ it's a disaster.

If IX made less than TLJ that means it's going to come in somewhere under 1.3 Billion meaning lost revenue between Episode VII and Episode IX in potentially $800 million or more
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Lost revenue? That's not how that works.
Sequels nearly always drop, only the MCU does not stick to this rule really.
With marketing and the budget, not including licencing deals, 1.3 billion woukd yield a massive profit.
Expectations?
Maybe you could argue that, but let's not forget the prequels were funded by the pepsi deal, and they were nearly all profit.
These are making more money in toys than most films in 10 years do.
 
Benji

Benji

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Laserdisk said:
Lost revenue? That's not how that works.
Sequels nearly always drop, only the MCU does not stick to this rule really.
With marketing and the budget, not including licencing deals, 1.3 billion woukd yield a massive profit.
Expectations?
Maybe you could argue that, but let's not forget the prequels were funded by the pepsi deal, and they were nearly all profit.
These are making more money in toys than most films in 10 years do.
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I thought it would be obvious but people really are going to continue to be in denial about the state of the franchise even if Episode IX comes in under TLJ huh?

I'm honestly surprised people are still going to take that stance, I figured it would be undeniable by that point
 
DarkLordMalik

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Oct 27, 2017
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So if IX makes 1.3B it will be fine for Disney but id Fallen Kingdom ends with 1.2B with budget of 175M, Universal has to start panicking? What logic is this? Lol

Jurassic franchise is doing fine. It still has huge potential in the INT market so any decline in DOM is offset through the global market. It hasn't hit the trajectory of Transformers but that too requires half dozen films before everyone got bored of them.

Jurassic as a series has plenty of potential and I think if they nail down World 3, it is another billion in the bank.
 
J_Viper

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Abrams will definitely go into the same "safe mode" he used for TFA to make sure IX ends up, at worst, a mildly entertaining yet forgettable blockbuster.

That could be enough for it to top TLJ, but I don't know if your average movie goer is dying to know the fate of Poe Dameron like they are the Avengers
 
ReginOfFire

ReginOfFire

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Oct 29, 2017
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Laserdisk said:
Lost revenue? That's not how that works.
Sequels nearly always drop, only the MCU does not stick to this rule really.
With marketing and the budget, not including licencing deals, 1.3 billion woukd yield a massive profit.
Expectations?
Maybe you could argue that, but let's not forget the prequels were funded by the pepsi deal, and they were nearly all profit.
These are making more money in toys than most films in 10 years do.
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because its the best movies
 
Laserdisk

Laserdisk

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Benji said:
I thought it would be obvious but people really are going to continue to be in denial about the state of the franchise even if Episode IX comes in under TLJ huh?

I'm honestly surprised people are still going to take that stance, I figured it would be undeniable by that point
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Denial? Yeah ok sure....
A 400 million plus profit is such a bad way to run a company.
The only one that poorly preformed is Solo, TLJ made money less than expected?
Maybe, but so did Tomb Raider and they keep making those games.
If it made less and everyone loved it, (not just the critics as in reality) then this would not be an issue.
This will be like Episode 3, they will go and see it due to the second's poor wom and that will boost the box office a little more.
Jumanji is also out about then, and you watch Wicked (released the same day) do over Greatest showman numbers.
And that's even if we don't mention Frozen 2.
 

Playco Armboy

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Oct 28, 2017
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Still saying Captain Marvel tops IX worldwide.

It'll be a glorious day when the MCU outdoes the final installment of the newest Star Wars trilogy with some random character everyone hates from the comics.
 
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