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2018-19 Season TV Cancellations/Pilots: Netflix decides that nobody is gonna sit on Ryan Gosling's face

Spectromixer

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
3,805
USA
Hmm...

I'm excited for The Dark Crystal, not because I'm a fan of the movie (I'm not) but because I appreciate the lengths they're going to to recreate the (very unique) world with like puppets and practical effects and stuff (even though there's still some cg).

The Witcher - I haven't played the games or read the books, but everyone is like "OMG the Witcher" so I kind of am too (lol)

Chronicles of Narnia - legit excited for this, especially if they can finally adapt the later books

I'm morbidly curious/excited to see how the live action Avatar: The Last Airbender, Cowboy Bebop, and Resident Evil series turn out

That's about it.
Tbh I would subscribe to Netflix to watch any one of these series (except maybe Dark Crystal)
 

CrichtonKicks

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,376
I don't get real excited about any streaming announcements because we hear about them when they are years from hitting the screens. I've already been hearing about Wheel of Time, LOTR, Disney+ Marvel shows, The Witcher, Cowboy Bebop, etc for what feels like forever but the only one that we even have footage of is The Witcher.

It's like the D&D announcement- if they do truly devote themselves to Star Wars first* then we are probably many, m any years out from seeing their first show premiere on Netflix. So right now it's kind of much ado about nothing.

* I kind of expect this to go the way of Confederate. Radio silent, back burnered, repeatedly until it just kind of goes poof and disappears sometime. I'm sure that D&D are increidbly well paid from Disney for SW but it's nothing on the scale of the Netflix deal so they gotta be feeling pressure to just do a full court press for Netflix instead of spending several years working on Star Wars for less money.
 

TDLink

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,185
Alright, didn't expect all those replies, but I'll try to respond to everyone.
I wouldn't say that, I think the next five years will determine whether Netflix will end up being the SVOD equivalent of Google or Yahoo.

Globally speaking Disney have a real hill to climb with Hulu expanding beyond the US, something Netflix are already five years (and that's being generous) ahead of them.
To be completely clear, I don't think they're going to disappear overnight, or within the next year, or anything like that. But I think that within the next 5 years Netflix will be a shadow of even what it is now. Disney has a hill to climb with Hulu, but that service is a secondary priority compared to Disney+ anyways -- which is almost guaranteed to be an instant success.

To be fair on the Netflix side of things, they have invested big time Internationally and it's probably going to be a large saving grace of theirs for a while.
Netflix has been evolving for a decade. It used to be for watching old movies, but now it's more for their own content, at least for me and many others. That's pretty much all I use it for and I still have things to watch most of the time.
Netflix has been known to adapt, yes, but I'm not entirely sure that they can adapt this time. A large part of why they flourished was a lack of competition in the streaming space. Losing the vast majority of content they don't produce is going to be a big hit to them. Other services cropping up who have that content as well as bigger (and very potentially better) shows are going to erode Netflix's subscriber base. Not many are going to pay for all of the services, and I feel like many who go with multiple are not going to make Netflix one of their top picks after a while.

Netflix does have a few potential big shows on the horizon, but they almost can't compete with the quantity of big shows that their competitors are going to be producing. Just look at the announced slates for the other services thus far compared to Netflix's.

There's the additional problem that even if you do find their current content to be great, that isn't really a view that is widely shared. Very few of their originals stand out and break into the Zeitgeist. I actually can't even think of a super big one in the past year apart from perhaps Stranger Things -- maybe You. It's hard to tell due to how Netflix shares numbers (or rather, doesn't share numbers). But Netflix has always played the quantity over quality game and that is going to bite them in the ass eventually.

They're not hemorrhaging subscribers. They're adding them by the millions. The problem they stated recently was that they didnt add as many as they predicted, which could eventually be a problem. The "on its way to irrelevance" comment is too crazy to even address.
Slowing growth =/= "hemorrhage". Unless I missed something recent...?

They face a real battle now, but that is why they are doing what they are doing. I hope they succeed or at least are able to maintain their relevance.
On the last page another poster laid out some of the initial warning signs. But also this article was the talk of yesterday:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/08/06/the-cold-hard-math-tells-netflix-could-crash-70/#399f4c871246

Again, like I said earlier in this post, I don't want to sound alarmist or anything. Netflix isn't about to implode. But I don't think "past its peak" is inaccurate to say.
Netflix is doomed is like "Everyone hates Brie Larson"

Youtube will suggest these videos to you for whatever reason, it spreads, thus its now fact.
I haven't watched any Youtube videos on the subject, nor am I familiar with the Brie Larson stuff you're talking about, but I think Netflix is, inevitably, doomed. Their only real out is reducing the number of shows they make and focusing on quality output, but I don't see them making that shift in strategy.

I honestly believe they aren't going to be able to compete with Amazon, Disney, and WB in the long term -- Disney and WB have the massive libraries that they just don't on top of extremely lucrative IP that is about to be exploited till the ends of our days. And Amazon has the advantage of being bundled with Prime (Which is almost ubiquitous at this point) and having seemingly bottomless pockets to acquire massive IP and fund huge budget shows.

All other streaming services are bound to fall by the wayside. Netflix, perhaps, last among them due to its current position as the market leader, but it will fall eventually too.
 

Rhaknar

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,313
how can someone possibly be on the internet and be unfamiliar with the Brie Larson stuff? O_o
 

firehawk12

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,236
Wednesday night's ratings. "BH90210" did really well. The demo ratings for ages 25-54 is especially exceptional. I do wonder if they'll be able to keep up this momentum:

I assume that show with the "child stars grown up" cast went away after a couple of seasons, but is this thing where celebrities basically play versions of themselves in fake reality shows a trend I just missed entirely?
 

henhowc

Member
Oct 26, 2017
14,262
Los Angeles, CA
Every couple of years you get new Netflix is dying hottakes. Happened when they lost Starz, happens every time there is a price hike, happens every time someone new launches a service, happens every time a show someone likes gets cancelled.

We'll see with Disney+ as that's all just lip service right now when they haven't launched anything and all their announced shows are like a year away.
 

vhoanox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,641
Vietnam
HBOMax is more a threat to Netflix in global scale. Friends was and still is a monster in streaming. I usually leave it or Frasier as background noise on tv.
 

TDLink

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,185
how can someone possibly be on the internet and be unfamiliar with the Brie Larson stuff? O_o
I am aware of general internet shitters throwing a fit about Captain Marvel, but I am not aware of any specific video/things about her in general beyond people crapping on her for playing the lead role in that movie.
Every couple of years you get new Netflix is dying hottakes. Happened when they lost Starz, happens every time there is a price hike, happens every time someone new launches a service, happens every time a show someone likes gets cancelled.

We'll see with Disney+ as that's all just lip service right now when they haven't launched anything and all their announced shows are like a year away.
I don't consider it a hottake. Even if that's the stance you want to take, HBO Max and Disney+ are the first SERIOUS contenders as they have those back catalogs, IP, and deep wallets.

"Losing Starz" or any one thing was a small drop in the bucket. The point is that now they're going to lose just about everything that isn't their own -- and they saw it coming, it's why they invested more and more in originals. The problem is the quality is very much all over the place with very very few standouts. Is that going to be enough to keep most subscribers? Maybe in a vacuum, maybe, but even then I'm not sure. Certainly not though when you have a handful of other services who ARE providing both the legacy content people want and high quality new programming.
 

vhoanox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,641
Vietnam
Netflix strategy is weird, they don't want to commit to more than 3 or 4 seasons each shows when things like Seinfeld, Simpsons made billion dollars in syndication.
They dont value re-watchable factor and expect people to watch new things every year?
 

Chitown B

Member
Nov 15, 2017
3,869
Netflix strategy is weird, they don't want to commit to more than 3 or 4 seasons each shows when things like Seinfeld, Simpsons made billion dollars in syndication.
They dont value re-watchable factor and expect people to watch new things every year?
the same shows usually drop the same month each year. They only care about keeping you "in" for every month of the year, not just particular ones. So I assume the more shows that they have the better, rather than fewer longer running shows. That way they're all staggered and you pay that monthly sub every month instead of turning it on and off.
 

vypek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,541
Just a side note: these streaming services should have some native random episode functionality. I'd love that for shows that are largely episodic.

Hoping especially for Disney+ since they'll have Simpsons
 

CommodoreKong

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,796
I don't consider it a hottake. Even if that's the stance you want to take, HBO Max and Disney+ are the first SERIOUS contenders as they have those back catalogs, IP, and deep wallets.

"Losing Starz" or any one thing was a small drop in the bucket. The point is that now they're going to lose just about everything that isn't their own -- and they saw it coming, it's why they invested more and more in originals. The problem is the quality is very much all over the place with very very few standouts. Is that going to be enough to keep most subscribers? Maybe in a vacuum, maybe, but even then I'm not sure. Certainly not though when you have a handful of other services who ARE providing both the legacy content people want and high quality new programming.
Matthew Ball (former Amazon Studios exec) wrong what I think is a pretty good article on why those things don't seem to matter for Netflix that I suggest giving a read.
It's actually part 7 of his ongoing series, I think all of them are worth reading.
 

ClivePwned

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,425
Cambridge, UK
Just a side note: these streaming services should have some native random episode functionality. I'd love that for shows that are largely episodic.

Hoping especially for Disney+ since they'll have Simpsons
what if it lands on something after season 10? Statistically, that would be around 2/3 of available episodes. "Saddlesore Galactica again?"
 

vypek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,541
what if it lands on something after season 10? Statistically, that would be around 2/3 of available episodes. "Saddlesore Galactica again?"
There are some lower quality seasons that I'd be willing to tolerate/watch. I'd relatively love the scenario you described compared to SimpsonsWorld where I've repeatedly been shifted to Luca$ and both skipping forward and refreshing would take me to the same episode or to another season 25+ episode.

So a functioning skip with a random episode still works better for me than what exists now. 2/3rds beyond seasons 10 seems like an improvement at this point lol
 

TDLink

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,185
Matthew Ball (former Amazon Studios exec) wrong what I think is a pretty good article on why those things don't seem to matter for Netflix that I suggest giving a read.
It's actually part 7 of his ongoing series, I think all of them are worth reading.
I just read this, and putting aside that it's already a few months old (and thus outdated), I think his arguments are a bit flawed because he is rebutting each point with an individual argument. In isolation, he is right about each of those things. The problem is they're all happening simultaneously, and that's the ultimate reason why I think Netflix is going to suffer. They could withstand any given one of these things happening (licensed content being reclaimed, original content being produced by studios who will soon be producing for their own services instead, content being "Out-quality-ed" by competitors, spend not being able to match these new competitors), but I don't believe (and the article doesn't make a case for) how they can withstand them all at once. It's that all out attack that is going to lead to more people leaving the service and choosing one (or more) of these others instead.

Additionally, again, comparing Netflix's past few years and the competition they've dealt with is irrelevant to their upcoming battle. These puny services that haven't made a splash like YouTube Red and CBS All Access (not to mention the others the article brings up which are even less successful) are simply not comparable to HBO Max and Disney+. Nor did they have a substantial catalog they were pulling off Netflix (CBS never licensed much to Netflix to begin with). Considering this, to me "Netflix has dealt with past competition just fine, so they'll keep being just fine," is a weak argument.
 

torre_avenue

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,376
Behind you.
101 Studios preps series on the 1980s' jeans empire showdown, Guess v. Jordache
101 Studios has optioned rights to the Christopher Byron book Skin Tight: The Bizarre Story of Guess vs. Jordache. The company will package a series around the epic, no holds barred Designer Jeans War that erupted between two immigrant Sephardic Jewish families. It pitted the Jordache Jeans empire launched by the Nakash brothers, against the Marciano brothers and their Guess jeans brand over a disputed ownership stake in the latter. Framed during the rise of form-fitting designer jeans in the ’80s, the feud included accusations of tax and customs fraud, dragged in federal prosecutor Rudolph Giuliani, IRS agents and armies of lawyers and private investigators as the families engaged in one-upsmanship.
 

TheNatureBoy

Member
Nov 4, 2017
1,960
What does that say about the rest of their lineup?
Their initial strategy of going with very niche programming (like 2 F. Scott Fitzgerald adaptations) might not have been the best strategy, lol. Going broader, with more genre seems to be working for them (Jack Ryan, Hannah, etc). Plus they still have critical darlings like Ms. Masiel which seems to do well for them as well.
 

Captjohnboyd

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,583
Anecdotal I know but I don't know a single person that subscribes to Netflix because of its back catalogue of friends. Obviously people watch their comfort shows like crazy but they have enough, and varied, content that I don't see them losing big to HBO or Disney. Personally I won't get Disney, outside of a couple of months to watch the marvel shows, because most of their catalogue is going to be aimed at children. I already have Hulu which is where most of the adult fare will land. I already have HBO as well. So as someone who's right now paying for Hulu, prime, Netflix and HBO they're in no danger of losing me as it still provides enough shows and movies to easily compete with the other three. Virtually everyone I know has the exact same set up and most spend their time with Netflix above all others

We'll see how that shakes out once Hulu starts adding a ton of content. Disney will surely peel off some families as well. I just don't see it being a death knell for Netflix
 

TDLink

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,185
What does that say about the rest of their lineup?
Their upcoming slate was a good idea, and they'll end up doing really well.
Anecdotal I know but I don't know a single person that subscribes to Netflix because of its back catalogue of friends. Obviously people watch their comfort shows like crazy but they have enough, and varied, content that I don't see them losing big to HBO or Disney. Personally I won't get Disney, outside of a couple of months to watch the marvel shows, because most of their catalogue is going to be aimed at children. I already have Hulu which is where most of the adult fare will land. I already have HBO as well. So as someone who's right now paying for Hulu, prime, Netflix and HBO they're in no danger of losing me as it still provides enough shows and movies to easily compete with the other three. Virtually everyone I know has the exact same set up and most spend their time with Netflix above all others

We'll see how that shakes out once Hulu starts adding a ton of content. Disney will surely peel off some families as well. I just don't see it being a death knell for Netflix
I don't think it's accurate to say most people have all of the services (or all of the current major ones anyway). People really into TV maybe, but not everyone is in that situation.
 

CrichtonKicks

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,376
"Losing Starz" or any one thing was a small drop in the bucket. The point is that now they're going to lose just about everything that isn't their own -- and they saw it coming, it's why they invested more and more in originals. The problem is the quality is very much all over the place with very very few standouts. Is that going to be enough to keep most subscribers? Maybe in a vacuum, maybe, but even then I'm not sure. Certainly not though when you have a handful of other services who ARE providing both the legacy content people want and high quality new programming.
This seems like a bizarre take given that we don't know what the quality of the new services since they haven't launched yet. The amount of original content that Warners and Disney are going to produce is going to expand way beyond what they are doing now and we don't know if they can handle that expansion without taking a quality hit.
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,574
The problem with Netflix is more that it seems like they won't have their originals permanently. We already saw Netflix originals disappear from the service.
 

metalslimer

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,154
Disney+ is also going to be cheap as hell initially. I don't see it having a huge impact on Netflix until it starts to become a larger burden to have both. Also it's funny that no one will is even putting Apple TV+ in the conversation
 

Schlep

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,257
The issue with Disney+ is that it won't be a source of consistent content, and will never be a source of all-ages content. Disney is banking on the Hulu/Disney+/ESPN+ bundle going toe to toe with Netflix, but even that has some question marks. They're shifting FX/X streaming rights to add that content to Hulu, potentially to offset losing NBC content which you have to imagine is coming. But then you have to wonder how much value Hulu has to a lot of people if it's just a glorified DVR (and Handmaid's Tale).

Netflix is and will continue to be the biggest 'all-in-one' package. Disney+ or HBO Max will continue being the second-tier choice, competing with or supplementing Hulu and/or Prime Video.
 

Captjohnboyd

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,583
Their upcoming slate was a good idea, and they'll end up doing really well.

I don't think it's accurate to say most people have all of the services (or all of the current major ones anyway). People really into TV maybe, but not everyone is in that situation.
Hulu has around 30 million, HBOGo 55 million and Netflix 60 (all US numbers) I'd say there's at least a decent amount of people holding multiple. Sure it may not be representative of the majority of consumers but it's far from a small amount

As other posters have pointed out the amount of content coming from the big boys is going to take a while to match Netflix's output. I don't expect Warner or Disney's to be anywhere near Netflix for at least a couple years
 

Cornballer

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,752
Was Hannah a success for Amazon? Never heard much about it either way.
They renewed it a couple of weeks after it premiered, but I don't think they've said anything quantitative about how successful it's been. Just the usual press release blather:
“We knew we had something unique with ‘Hanna,’ and with the added momentum from its special post-Super Bowl preview, Amazon Prime Video customers worldwide agreed,” said Albert Cheng, co-head of television for Amazon Studios. “Since it debuted only ten days ago, Hanna has had a tremendous response, and we’re thrilled with not only how it has performed for us on the service, but with the action-packed world David Farr has created for the series and the stellar cast, led by Esmé Creed-Miles, Mireille Enos, and Joel Kinnaman. We’re excited to give fans a chance to see Hanna continue her journey on Amazon.”
 

TDLink

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,185
This seems like a bizarre take given that we don't know what the quality of the new services since they haven't launched yet. The amount of original content that Warners and Disney are going to produce is going to expand way beyond what they are doing now and we don't know if they can handle that expansion without taking a quality hit.
While that's true, the larger point is that they have their entire back catalogs (And other future content from other sources, ie theatrical films and network shows) to bolster their Originals while Netflix is going to be left to rely almost purely on their own originals. Plus "HBO shows" becoming HBO Max shows and Marvel Studios/Lucasfilm shows becoming Disney+ originals have a certain built-in quality expectation. However...
Hulu has around 30 million, HBOGo 55 million and Netflix 60 (all US numbers) I'd say there's at least a decent amount of people holding multiple. Sure it may not be representative of the majority of consumers but it's far from a small amount

As other posters have pointed out the amount of content coming from the big boys is going to take a while to match Netflix's output. I don't expect Warner or Disney's to be anywhere near Netflix for at least a couple years
Talking purely about output, we don't know how much they're going to produce. But at the end of the day it is absolutely unnecessary to produce the volume that Netflix is currently producing, so it almost doesn't matter -- that isn't something anyone needs to match. It also isn't something Netflix even needs to currently be doing.
 

Pluto

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,289
It's weird to me that they're in such high demand, when it should be obvious to anyone that it's GRRM who was the success behind GoT.
GRRM didn't run the show and made it the incredible success that it was. The first four seasons that everybody seemed to love? Those were done by Benioff and Weiss too! Having good source material helps but it doesn't make a good show on its own. And it's not like this was a small production, it was massive and Benioff and Weiss were the ones in charge.

Wouldn't it make more sense to go hard for GRRM, instead?
For what? He's not exactly a writing machine churning out stories and the fourth and fifth ASOIAF novels also have some problems and if he ever finishes the series there's no guarantee he'll stick the landing, people have faith based on the first three novels but the fourth and fifth are way too long, they're in many cases treading water and don't go anywhere. We could easily end up with a situation similar to the tv show, the first few novels are awesome, the rest not so much.

Game of Thrones was a flawed show (like many others) but it's a bit annoying that many people seem to act like Benioff and Weiss are incompetent hacks while GRRM can do no wrong when in reality D&D did a lot of things right and GRRM did some things wrong.

D&D are probably not the best at coming up with original stories but successfully adapting an existing story takes talent too.
 

torre_avenue

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,376
Behind you.
Variety profile on John "Stank Daddy" Stankey, the head of AT&T Time Warner:

In the interview, Stankey outlined how AT&T will try to avoid becoming AOL 2.0 and make the Time Warner acquisition work over the long haul. He is purposefully taking a hammer to the walls that separated HBO, Warner Bros. and Turner. He pledges to spend what it takes to launch HBO Max, including an estimated $500 million increase in HBO’s programming budget for 2019 and 2020.
He took the lead in hammering out a megadeal with “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” director and “Alias” creator J.J. Abrams that will see the filmmaker helm movies and shows for Warners’ various platforms. Stankey flew to London in September to begin talks with Abrams, pitching him on WarnerMedia’s ability to offer him a broad array of homes for his content — from traditional theatrical releases to streaming and video games. The pact is believed to be valued at least $500 million, and while Stankey doesn’t confirm a deal has been reached, he heaps praise on Abrams.
 

anamika

Member
May 18, 2018
615
Game of Thrones was a flawed show (like many others) but it's a bit annoying that many people seem to act like Benioff and Weiss are incompetent hacks while GRRM can do no wrong when in reality D&D did a lot of things right and GRRM did some things wrong.

D&D are probably not the best at coming up with original stories but successfully adapting an existing story takes talent too.
The problem with D&D for me personally is that they have some incredibly toxic racist and sexist viewpoints evident in their interviews and that makes its way into their writing of the show and it's characters and where GRRM's characters where complex and real, D&D's were stripped off those complexities and were one-dimensional walking plot devices used to get to a fixed ending as fast as possible. They are, in essence, not good writers. Confederate was after all their idea. There's a reason for why people are glad it's cancelled and that we don't have to suffer through D&D's take on the civil war.

They are good show runners, I will give you that. It's not easy to run such an expensive production filming in multiple locations, handle different departments, make sure the large cast works seamlessly with no drama etc. That's a hard task and they can be hired as showrunners and executive producers. But I really do think that if they are given a project, a diverse writer's room should be hired with women and POC as writers to give their input and contribute as writers for any future series.