2019 Bolivian election, Evo Morales resigns after massive protest

[Untzillatx]

Preliminary results

According to newspaper 'Página Siete', more info as it comes. It is a conteo rápido, meaning that full results are still unknown due to vote counting being slower in rural areas. Results may still change, there's an increasing possibility of second-round.

Seems like, for the first time in 15 years, there will need to be a second round between Evo Morales (MAS-IPSP) and Carlos Mesa (C). Other candidates Oscar Ortiz and Chi Hyun Chung have asked their supporters to vote for Mesa in the event a second round is finally confirmed by the electoral body.

There are also complaints about some irregularities taking place, the vote counting mysteriously stopped at around 20:00, not to be resumed until hours later, people took the streets and gathered around polling places.

The results were very divided regionally, with the west (Andean region plus Pando) supporting Morales and the East (Valleys and lowlands) supporting Mesa:

 

[Untzillatx]

Luis Almagro, secretary general of the OAS has announced the release of the preliminary results:



They have been made available - I believe so far only in Spanish - in the OAS website: Press release and preliminary results

Main findings:

• In the four analysed elements (technology, chain of custody, electoral records and statistical projections) irregularities have been found, that range from very serious to indicative. In consequence, the audit team questions the integrity of the results.
• Regarding the technology aspect, very serious security flaws were found in the TREP (Transmission of Preliminary Electoral Results) system as well as in the final counting. In addition, a manipulation of the TREP system has been registered that affected both the preliminary and final results.
• These manipulations to the electronic system are of such magnitude, that they should be seriously investigated by the Bolivian state so to find the individuals or organisations that are responsible.
• Non-electronic records with alterations and falsified signatures have been found.

Preliminary conclusion: Based on the statistical projections and the initial voting trend, it seems likely that Evo Morales received the most votes, followed by Carlos Mesa. However, in the opinion of the audit, it is statistically improbable that Morales had managed to get 10 percentage points of different in respect to Mesa (required to avoid a second round). Based on the irregularities found, the OAS audit team cannot validate the results of the October 20th election and recommends beginning a new electoral process.

The report also comments that the OAS will continue to investigate more than 250 complaints they have received during the past days regarding irregularities in the electoral process. Final report will be published in the coming days.

TL;DR Irregularities found in both the digital and physical voting and vote counting systems. OAS cannot validate the results, recommends new elections.

---

This is now an interesting result. On one hand because Morales did publicly announce that they would uphold the findings of the OAS. Now, the report points to irregularities, but it remains to be seen who the culprit is. The Bolivian constitution establishes that, in case of proven electoral fraud, a new electoral committee needs to be organised -the former members subject to a legal process- and any political party directly involved should be automatically dissolved, the leaders or responsibles charged with electoral fraud.

In most other cases I would be dubious of the OAS, especially in regards to a leftist Latin American government, but the fraud was not only evident, but also sloppy.

For those who may not know, it went like this:

* Polling previous to the election showed it to be a close race between Evo Morales (MAS-IPSP) and Carlos Mesa (CC)
* On the election day, preliminary results after the closing of the voting stations showed a victory for Morales but with less than 10 percetage points in respect to Mesa, which meant a second round would be needed (Morales has never faced a second round).
* At around 22:00 local time, the transmission of preliminary results was interrupted when they were at 80%. Explanations were not given other than 'the Internet connection is slow'.
* The transmission of preliminary results did not resume until the evening of October 21st, almost 24 hours later. These results suddenly reversed the trend followed by the previous 80%, suddenly giving a big advantage of Morales.
* In the end, according to the 'final' results, a second round was not needed, people claimed fraud, and here we are today.

EDIT.- Evo Morales calls for new elections and the renovation of the electoral committee