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2019 Turkish Local Elections, 31 March |OT| - Finally, Some Good Fucking Democracy

Nov 2, 2017
1,186
#1
Ladies and gentleman, it is that time of the year again where Erdogan wins, again. But have no fear! This time we, the left, have some hope to spare... Hope that our fucked economy and the inflation rate will put some semblance of sense to the voters.

What are we voting for?
Turkey holds local elections every five years. This time, throughout the 81 provinces of Turkey, a total of 30 metropolitan and 1,351 district municipal mayors, alongside 1,251 provincial and 20,500 municipal councilors will be elected. That means we get the choose which party will control Constan- Istanbul, a city where an unnecessary amount of people currently reside in. Or Ankara, our capital where some good fucking democracy happens every day. Or İzmir, the crown jewel of the Empire.

Who are we voting for?
There are two major alliances. AKP and MHP (People's Alliance) want to cement their general election gains. While CHP and İYİ (Nation Alliance) looking to grab a few key metropolitan municipalities.

People's Alliance
AKP
(Justice and Development Party): Islamist - conservative. Big boy Erdogan's party.


MHP ( Nationalist Movement Party): Ultranationalist - far-right. Currently breaking bread with the big boy.


Nation Alliance
CHP
(Republican People's Party): Social democrat - Kemalist. Will call this one a hot win if they manage to grab Ankara.


İYİ (Good Party): Nationalist - secular - liberal conservative. Wants to divide the right-wing votes.


Other
HDP
(Peoples' Democratic Party): Social democrat - Kurdish rights.


SP (Felicity Party): Islamist - conservative (not as crazy as AKP)


What is the current situation?
The last local election was in 2014. Let's look at the results in the biggest cities:
  1. İstanbul - 15M - AKP
  2. Ankara - 5.5M - AKP
  3. İzmir - 4.3M - CHP
  4. Bursa - 2.9M - AKP
  5. Antalya - 2.4M - AKP
  6. Adana - 2.2M - MHP
  7. Konya - 2.2M - AKP
  8. Şanlıurfa - 2M - AKP
  9. Gaziantep - 2M - AKP
  10. Kocaeli - 1.9M - AKP
And this is the big picture map. Note that İYİ wasn't formed at the time and BDP is now called HDP:



Well then who is going to win this bullshit?
It's a bit complicated. There are no real winners in local elections. Turkish people used to punish ruling governments in local elections if the economy wasn't in a right place and let me fucking tell you that the economy is in the worst place it could be right now.

Opinion polls suggest CHP will rip out Ankara from the hands of AKP, thanks to Mansur Yavaş, a charismatic Ankara-born politician that lost the last election by a small margin. İzmir will continue to fly its CHP flag. And AKP will need to bring its A game if they want to hold Istanbul on their hands. Even losing Ankara be disgraceful for AKP and Erdogan, I can't even begin to think how big of a nut I would bust if they were to lose Istanbul. Although, this seems highly unlikely.

P.S.: Just to clear any potential misunderstandings. I'll be voting for the CHP's candidates
 
OP
OP
Mórríoghain
Nov 2, 2017
1,186
#2
6 days until elections. AKP and Erdogan's rhetoric towards the other 50% gets harsher by the minute. Apparently, we all are terrorists because we don't vote for him.

AKP losing ground and they fucking know it. Latest polls suggest AKP losing the capital, Ankara for the first time in fucking ages alongside with pretty key cities in Anatolia. Istanbul is also on a knife-edge. Half the polls suggest AKP losing Istanbul. If they lose these two cities, it will be the start of the endgame for them. Party will split, as a group ex-President / ex-PM / ex-Minister team is ready to kickstart their own party to split AKP in half. Even if AKP manages the cling on to Istanbul, it seems like they are bleeding voters left and right.

 
Last edited:
Oct 26, 2017
6,153
#7
I am in Istanbul for the week and there is like a election poster every two meters everywhere.
Should've seen the presidential campaign. Erdoğan's face was EVERYWHERE. There were more ads with his face on them than those without.

--

I'm in Canada now so I can't vote. But I'd vote for CHP.
 
Oct 27, 2017
610
#9
I may be remembering incorrectly but doesn't Erdogan do very well with Turkish voters living and voting abroad (in Germany etc.)? Is this still the case and does the polling keep track of that?
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,634
Scotland
#10
I may be remembering incorrectly but doesn't Erdogan do very well with Turkish voters living and voting abroad (in Germany etc.)? Is this still the case and does the polling keep track of that?
That's a good point, can Turkish citizens living abroad vote in these elections?

Completely different system here (UK), but IIRC our citizens abroad can vote (for a number of years) in parliamentary elections, but not in local elections.
 
OP
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Mórríoghain
Nov 2, 2017
1,186
#11
That's a good point, can Turkish citizens living abroad vote in these elections?

Completely different system here (UK), but IIRC our citizens abroad can vote (for a number of years) in parliamentary elections, but not in local elections.
Huh, I am not sure. Because in order to vote in a city you have to register in that city, with the proof of you actually living there.
 
OP
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Mórríoghain
Nov 2, 2017
1,186
#18
Probably the last public poll until the voting begins in Sunday morning. Fucking dream shit over here. I don't know man. I am excited more than ever but also scared. We might kickstart the change in our country, or continue eating dirt.

 
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Oct 26, 2017
6,153
#20
Probably the last public poll until the voting begins in Sunday morning. Fucking dream shit over here. I don't know man. I am excited more then evet but also scared. We might kickstart the change in our country, or continue eating dirt.

I shouldn't be excited.

I shouldn't be excited.

FUCK, I'm excited
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,153
#23
Are there fears of election tampering or anything like that? What checks does Turkey have for free elections?
There'll probably be a lot of tampering but Erdoğan won the presidential election last year with a 51% majority and there were many reports of corruption but also a LOT of communal vote vetting by volunteers (led by opposition), so we'll see.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,191
#24
There'll probably be a lot of tampering but Erdoğan won the presidential election last year with a 51% majority and there were many reports of corruption but also a LOT of communal vote vetting by volunteers (led by opposition), so we'll see.
In a lot of municipalities (especially in the rural areas and the east) the opposition doesn't really have any representation, so there's little checks and balances there.
 
OP
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Mórríoghain
Nov 2, 2017
1,186
#31
Just voted. Now the wait begins.

P.S.: We don't do exit polls. So, we are going to have to wait until the ballots close at 2 PM (GMT).
 
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Mórríoghain
Nov 2, 2017
1,186
#33
Any indications on the results so far?
Election result news ban still on effect, but a couple of the pro-government websites started to show the results because of course, they did. Not even 1% of the votes are counted in the western parts of the country but some of the eastern cities have around %20 percent counted. Not much surprise over there but the Turkish Communist Party's candidate is on course to win Tunceli which is huge.

Extremely pro-government source:
https://www.yenisafak.com/yerel-secim-2019/secim-sonuclari
 
OP
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Mórríoghain
Nov 2, 2017
1,186
#38
OP
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Mórríoghain
Nov 2, 2017
1,186
#41
Biggest cities so far. From the current mayors to projected results:

İstanbul - 15M - AKP AKP (49%) or CHP (47.5%)
Ankara - 5.5M - AKP CHP
İzmir - 4.3M - CHP CHP
Bursa - 2.9M - AKP AKP
Antalya - 2.4M - AKP CHP
Adana - 2.2M - MHP CHP
Konya - 2.2M - AKP AKP
Şanlıurfa - 2M - AKP AKP
Gaziantep - 2M - AKP AKP
Kocaeli - 1.9M - AKP AKP

Source:
http://secim.aa.com.tr/#tr
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,280
#43
Just looking over the districts a bit, it seems that a good amount of the ones that the AKP won are only by a small margin as well. There's a few exceptions (like Konya), but overall that's not a bad result at all, even though it wasn't enough to flip the district.
 
May 16, 2018
175
#47
My friends in Turkey tell the the economy is one step away from disaster. They need foreign cash bad.
But, how do these elections matter when Sultan Erdogan has literally no check on his power anymore?
He purged, jailed and executed most of his effectual enemies. He feels he will grow even greater than Kanunî Sultan Süleyman.
The only way he will go is if he dies or overthrown in a true coup.
 
OP
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Mórríoghain
Nov 2, 2017
1,186
#49
FUCK ME this is tense.

48.85 - AKP
48.55 - CHP

Around 3% of the ballots left and most of them are from highly populated and extremely pro-CHP districts.