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2020 Democratic Presidential Primary | OT | Hickenlooper makes it to the debate

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Mod post - stay on topic

B-Dubs

Oh well, what the hell?
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
17,157
Official Staff Communication
Hey, this isn't a random hangout. It's a catch-all thread for the 2020 primaries stuff until the debates start. If you want to troll or just hang out go to a different thread.
 

Frozenprince

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,992
What's curious is that you don't seem to know what political lobbies are, or why they have power over candidates (it's by paying them money or threatening not to pay them money if they don't do what they want), or why that's seen a bad thing in a candidate. That, or you're just being obtuse.

Someone with the last name "booty judge" really captures the cultural zeitgeist, though
I hope he at least sticks around till Iowa so we can get some decent Butt Assessor jokes in.
 

tommy7154

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,370
Kamala is a fraud? I'm shocked! IMO if you dont want that in 2020 you have 3 realistic options. Beto is not one of them.
 

The Hermit

Avenger
Oct 31, 2017
3,540
Alright, I might actually be ready to move Harris down from my #4 slot and give that to Beto. Kamala what are you doing? I want to like you, but you're making it so hard.

Anyone underwhelmed in general with Kamala or Beto should get on the Pete train though. He might actually be a top 4 contender if he can keep it up.

My personal rankings now:
1. Pete
2. Warren
3. Bernie
.
.
4. Beto
5. Kamala
Rankings day!

It's an interesting one with Harris and AIPAC after Williamson taking a stand against BDS this morning. If I wasn't so impressed with Mayor Pete in the last week and him drawing in the youth vote and seeming to be a spoiler against Sanders then Harris would be taking 2nd place. She definitely closed the gap between her and Pete though. It takes courage in the current Democrat environment to show Israel support and both women showed support and courage today.


1. Marianne Williamson
.
.
.
2. Pete Buttigieg
3. Kamala Harris
.
.
4. Beto O'Rourke
5. Elizabeth Warren
6. Andrew Yang
.
7. Amy Klobuchar
8. Jay Inslee
9. Cory Booker
10. Julian Castro
.
.
11. Joe Biden
 

Helio

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,945
1. Sanders
2. Buttigieg
3. Warren

I'd say Warren and Buttigieg are pretty interchangeable at this point. I do think Buttigieg will start polling better at some point but we'll see. Warren should be polling better, she'd be a great pick imo.
I have Warren as my second. Everyone else aren't even a consideration for me.
 

BoboBrazil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,477
Warren has no chance in the general. I think Beto, Biden, or Buttigeig could win, although Butti being gay will hurt him in the midwest
 

Ogodei

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,179
Coruscant
I honestly think Kamala is demonstrating a lot more political savvy than the other candidates with this move. I can't even hate.
I think it's more her being a Senator. No trip to AIPAC but you can't not meet with the California AIPAC delegation without staking a bolder position that could come back to bite her should she not occupy the White House in 2021.

This is the advantage Beto will have in not being an active officeholder.

For me and my vote... she'll have to answer for this.
 
Oct 31, 2017
5,167
With others still potentially getting into the race, a little under a year until the first primary, and the first debate a few months away, I think it's best not to go in with favorites since it'll be easier to judge them in debates, for example, and during a snafu which each of them will likely encounter and how they react to it; I think it's easier when you're not aligned with one just yet. There's so much time and no rush to just observe how they handle things and articulate their messages throughout 2019.

Plus, it's harder to know who can win in the general yet. I don't think we can just discount Warren, wonder about Buttigieg's name, etc. etc. until we see how they operate in campaign mode. I mean, I remember clearly when Jeb Bush wasn't a punchline and a meme. He frightened many of us since he attracted the Hispanic vote in Florida, but by the end of the primaries, he was a joke candidate and Trump was the serious contender. Like seriously, holy shit at how that happened.

I'm sure some of you can do it, but I find it harder to judge with a critical and unbiased eye if I'm don't feel in a candidate's camp just yet. I'm certainly more excited about the debates considering the level of interest there is in running this time, as opposed to five people, two of which didn't last past the first debate.
 

Psychoward

Member
Nov 7, 2017
19,979
Warren is the best candidate on paper. She 's also the worst candidate for campaigning and debating though so I highly doubt she even wins the primary save for multiple acts of god.
 

Mercury Fred

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,849
My rankings for the week:

1.Buttigieg
2.Warren
3.Beto

Not happy about Kamala's AIPAC shenanigans and Sanders is cancelled after his shitty hires.
 

Encephalon

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,245
Japan
Regardless of whether or not Beto's distancing from AIPAC is sincere, it's good to see that a major candidate can move away from it.
 

BoboBrazil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,477
Media has been more negative than anything to Beto. Still seems to come down to name recognition at this point and polls don't mean much right now
 
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Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
9,459
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

More polls!

The latest results are based on 13,725 interviews with registered voters, collected from March 18- 24, 2019.

Biden- 35%
Bernie- 25%
Harris- 8%
O'rourke- 8%
Warren- 7%
Cory Booker- 4%
Amy Klobachour- 2%
Pete Butigieg- 2%
Rest- 1%

O'rourke still not climbing surprisingly. Why is he failing when the media has been incredibly positive for him?
Some movement in people's second choice. Now pretty much everyone's second choice is Biden rather than a mix of Biden and Bernie(Only Warren supporters have Bernie as their top second choice now).

... And now even MORE Sanders' supporters second choice is Biden.

Yup, we're gonna get the great white hope... Sigh.
 

Prodigal Son

Member
Oct 27, 2017
888
i dont understand how people are shocked by this kind of shit. like, look up who these people really are before throwing your support behind them




Sanders
Warrem
Buttigieg
 
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ThomasJames

Member
Jan 15, 2019
1,821
Some movement in people's second choice. Now pretty much everyone's second choice is Biden rather than a mix of Biden and Bernie(Only Warren supporters have Bernie as their top second choice now).

... And now even MORE Sanders' supporters second choice is Biden.

Yup, we're gonna get the great white hope... Sigh.
Again, let's wait for the bulk of people to actually start paying attention. No pre-July polls really matter, especially when results now are so clearly a result of name recognition.
 

sphagnum

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,727
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

More polls!

The latest results are based on 13,725 interviews with registered voters, collected from March 18- 24, 2019.

Biden- 35%
Bernie- 25%
Harris- 8%
O'rourke- 8%
Warren- 7%
Cory Booker- 4%
Amy Klobachour- 2%
Pete Butigieg- 2%
Rest- 1%

O'rourke still not climbing surprisingly. Why is he failing when the media has been incredibly positive for him?
Slight downtick for Bernie, slight uptick for Pete. Basically everything else remains flat.
 
Oct 27, 2017
538
Dick Gephardt & Joe Lieberman were ahead of the pack at this point in 2003 and Bill Clinton didn’t even enter the race until October 1991.

In the absence of a Clinton-esque forgone conclusion or an Obama-level phenom, I would read very little into polling at this point.

For what it’s worth, I think the two front runners at this point each have their own problems. Both are very, very old with lots of baggage. Biden has a track record of fizzling quickly in nationwide campaigns & I’m utterly convinced that Sanders would be an absolute catastrophe in a general election, probably falling to the biggest electoral college defeat for a Democrat since 1988.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
9,459
i dont understand how people are shocked by this kind of shit. like, look up who these people really are before throwing your support behind them
Are people actually shocked about that? I'm not.

What really shocked me was Howard Schultz not going to AIPAC.

Again, let's wait for the bulk of people to actually start paying attention. No pre-July polls really matter, especially when results now are so clearly a result of name recognition.
Fair enough, but Biden's support is so rock solid and the mix of support from second-choices seems to be converging. 10% more of Bernie's voters view Biden as a second choice from the last morning consult poll I saw. If I HAD to bet on someone winning at this point, I'd bet on Biden even if I don't want him to win.
 
Oct 27, 2017
538
Dick Gephardt & Joe Lieberman were ahead of the pack at this point in 2003 and Bill Clinton didn’t even enter the race until October 1991, at which point he was seen as a rank outsider.

In the absence of a Clinton-esque forgone conclusion or an Obama-level phenom, I would read very little into polling at this point. I have a feeling that unless he tires of his breakneck campaigning or has horrible debates that O’Rourke will pull this out, and my view is that it would be a horrible match-up for Trump. People seldom vote on the minutia of policy but are swayed by personality and appearance, so if you have a broad-brush opponent who can articulate a positive, counter-Trump message & make the Conman look like the low-energy turd that he is, that’s bad news for him. Do I wish such consequential elections went beyond zingers, red meat and artifice? Yes, but that’s not the reality of the situation.

For what it’s worth, I think the two front runners at this point each have their own problems. Both are very, very old with lots of baggage. Biden has a track record of fizzling quickly in nationwide campaigns & I’m utterly convinced that Sanders would be an absolute catastrophe in a general election, probably falling to the biggest electoral college defeat for a Democrat since 1988. He’s divisive & ornery, makes Trump look young and would be successfully ‘othered’ as a mad socialist by the - regrettably - normalised Trump, steward of a decent capitalist economy. In 2016, before the Conman had been handed the legitimacy of the Presidency, perhaps it could have been a different story.
 
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