2020 Democratic Presidential Primary | OT | Hickenlooper makes it to the debate

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B-Dubs

Oh well, what the hell?
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
21,449
Out of the “serious” candidates Gillibrand and Booker are DOA

He should probably drop out based on this expert analysis 🙄

He hasn’t even announced yet, calm your jets. Polls are meaningless until the primary kicks into gear.
The first part of your post dismissed two candidates based on the early polls the second part of your post said are meaningless...
 
Oct 31, 2017
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Glenn and Jill. Tulsi is in excellent company
Getting in an early attempt to frame Bernie criticisms as social media manipulation.
That New Knowledge experiment sounded risky and lucky not to face charges. It's cool that they pulled it off and got good data. If they are for keeping elections clean going forward that information would be helpful in recognizing and tracking interference. Something other nations might be able to learn and adapt to secure their own elections.

What is the cross-over between Sanders and Gabbard supporters? These candidates don't appear to have much in common.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Getting in an early attempt to frame Bernie criticisms as social media manipulation.
That New Knowledge experiment sounded risky and lucky not to face charges. It's cool that they pulled it off and got good data. If they are for keeping elections clean going forward that information would be helpful in recognizing and tracking interference. Something other nations might be able to learn and adapt to secure their own elections.

What is the cross-over between Sanders and Gabbard supporters? These candidates don't appear to have much in common.
The majority of Gabbard supporters are TYT regulars that remember that she backed Bernie once and she said bad things about getting involved in the Syrian conflict.

That being said there aren't all that many Gabbard supporters. Majority of the people who like her already prefer Bernie, and those that prefer her are a very small crowd.
 

Ichthyosaurus

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Dec 26, 2018
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The majority of Gabbard supporters are TYT regulars that remember that she backed Bernie once and she said bad things about getting involved in the Syrian conflict.

That being said there aren't all that many Gabbard supporters. Majority of the people who like her already prefer Bernie, and those that prefer her are a very small crowd.
Occasionally I catch obscure left leaning You Tube political channels defending Tulsi. Thankfully TYT have slowly turned on Tulsi, and supporting Bernie. Maybe they supported her because she was the closest candidate to Bernie, which makes their response to Warren worse.
 
Oct 31, 2017
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The majority of Gabbard supporters are TYT regulars that remember that she backed Bernie once and she said bad things about getting involved in the Syrian conflict.

That being said there aren't all that many Gabbard supporters. Majority of the people who like her already prefer Bernie, and those that prefer her are a very small crowd.
Then, in a scenario where Sanders doesn't run his supporters aren't expected to become hers to any great degree?
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Then, in a scenario where Sanders doesn't run his supporters aren't expected to become hers to any great degree?
The majority of Sanders voters have other 2nd picks and have no idea who Gabbard is.

I’m not dismissing them based on the polls. They have no path to victory.
Oh? How do you figure that without looking at the polls? Without polling data, what's the path to victory difference between a Booker and a Harris?
 

Deleted member 13364

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Oh? How do you figure that without looking at the polls? Without polling data, what's the path to victory difference between a Booker and a Harris?
The reaction to their announcements? The fact that nobody was really excited at the prospect of him running in the first place? You don’t need polling to know that Booker was always going to be a dud.
 

kambaybolongo

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Oct 25, 2017
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Oh? How do you figure that without looking at the polls? Without polling data, what's the path to victory difference between a Booker and a Harris?
This entire thread is based on baseless speculation and you’re seriously giving me the third degree over this?

Booker is devoid of personality, has a history of defending private equity and standing up for people like Mitt Romney, and is one of the biggest charter school advocates in the country. None of those things make me think he’ll gain any traction in a dem primary.

As far as Gillibrand goes, her bridges with the establishment have been burned because of the Al Franken debacle and she has no path on the left because of Sanders and Warren. Not even mentioning how many problematic votes she made as a rep when she was a lot more conservative.
The reaction to their announcements? The fact that nobody was really excited at the prospect of him running in the first place? You don’t need polling to know that Booker was always going to be a dud.
Also this
 
Oct 31, 2017
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The majority of Sanders voters have other 2nd picks and have no idea who Gabbard is.
And of those few that do know her most don't seem to want to have anything to do with her or will openly admit it anyhow.

They might flip to Biden when he's in the race, as he's more conservative.
Thought they'd flock to Warren? or split that way. It might be easier for Harris if Sanders does announce.
Biden biding his time. A few years back he sounded like he legitimately wanted out of politics. This waiting to announce appears a bit like grandfatherly worry and waiting in the wings just in case he's needed. Probably wants to join at the last minute for showmanship and timing benefits. As everyone knows he's already got the recognition and support to make it far in the primary.
 

Ichthyosaurus

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Dec 26, 2018
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Thought they'd flock to Warren? or split that way. It might be easier for Harris if Sanders does announce.
Biden biding his time. A few years back he sounded like he legitimately wanted out of politics. This waiting to announce appears a bit like grandfatherly worry and waiting in the wings just in case he's needed. Probably wants to join at the last minute for showmanship and timing benefits. As everyone knows he's already got the recognition and support to make it far in the primary.
Given how conservative Tulsi is I assumed they'd flock to the most conservative candidate and Biden is very popular with Bernie's supporters. Biden likely was recovering from his son's death, which would take yers to recover. He must have finally gotten strong enough to move on so he can restart his political career. Yep, that's his advantage.
 

supra

Member
Oct 30, 2017
339
Sanders supporters would go to Warren. maybe a handful to Tulsi. Biden would be the absolute last stop.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Sanders supporters would go to Warren. maybe a handful to Tulsi. Biden would be the absolute last stop.
Polling says the opposite. Biden voters are more likely to go to Warren. Bernie's more likely to go to Booker. Both are more likely to go to the other. But that's at the moment. I doubt the overlap will shift completely. Don't assume that voters follow policy or political spectrum nitty-gritty. They do not.
 
Oct 27, 2017
690
That political/electoral frame is definitely worth keeping in mind, but I can mention a few additional points, that I think are also worth considering. Richard Eskow outlines some of the limitations of the specific set of talking points that were tested in the KFF poll, and these limitations he describes also apply to some of the erroneous assumptions & talking points used by McArdle:
[...] The poll finds that 56 percent of voters surveyed initially support “Medicare for All” and 42 percent oppose it, for a net favorability rating of +14 percent. When arguments in favor of Medicare for All are presented—it will guarantee coverage to all Americans and reduce out-of-pocket costs—net favorability rises to +45 percent. (KFF does not provide the raw numbers here.) Support reportedly falls dramatically when people hear arguments against the program. The problem, however, is in the presentation.

The pros, as presented, are understated. Medicare for All would not “reduce” out-of-pocket costs. It would eliminate them for all medical interventions, including hospitalization, surgery, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and doctor visits. The use of “reduce” suggests that any out-of-pocket savings would be marginal at best, which is not true.

The KFF survey told respondents that Medicare for All would “require most Americans to pay more in taxes.” It did tell them that health insurance premiums would be eliminated, but failed to explain that the vast majority of families would pay considerably less in taxes than they currently pay in premiums and out-of-pocket costs. Many working Americans with employer-based insurance are unaware of how much is deducted from their paychecks in premiums, which also dilutes the impact of this question.

The survey told respondents that Medicare for All would “eliminate private health insurance companies,” but it did not tell them why: these corporations add to the overall cost of health care without providing anything of value.

It gets worse. The pollsters then presented the statement that Medicare for All will “threaten the current Medicare program.” While this is a common Republican line of attack, it is an openly deceptive one. Medicare for All proposals would expand and improve coverage for seniors and the disabled under the current program, by expanding the scope of services rendered and eliminating out-of-pocket costs in most cases. [...]
[...] Despite the survey’s methodological flaws, Leonhardt uses it to conclude that Medicare for All is politically unfeasible. He suggests that Democrats embrace another plan instead: the Center for American Progress proposal (in Leonhardt’s words from an earlier column) “through which any American, regardless of age, could buy health insurance” from the government.

There are serious actuarial problems with this approach, however. As has been seen with Medicare Advantage, the private-insurance option for today’s Medicare, insurance companies are experts at “cherry-picking” healthy enrollees. (As some whistleblower cases demonstrate, they can also be expert at committing fraud.) This would create service problems for enrollees and financial problems for the government. [...]

It’s true that the GOP (and centrist Democrats) will likely present these misleading arguments in much the same way they do. But why should Democrats tailor their platform to voters’ reactions, when those reactions are based on a biased or one-sided set of arguments? An important proposal like Medicare for All should be subjected to public debate, so that the public gets a deeper understanding of its ramifications. That is, after all, why we have elections. [...]
Eskow writes: "An important proposal like Medicare for All should be subjected to public debate, so that the public gets a deeper understanding of its ramifications."

McArdle's analysis, for example, incorrectly assumes (like much of the public, no doubt) that M4A would have the same level of benefits as existing Medicare, but as Eskow notes above (and Sarah Kliff explains, below), the Senate M4A proposal (the proposal on which both the PERI economic analysis and the Mercatus economic analysis were based) would considerably expand and improve coverage, beyond both current Medicare and beyond a good many employer-sponsored plans:
[...] The plan is significantly more generous than the single-payer plans run by America’s peer countries. The Canadian health care system, for example, does not cover vision or dental care, prescription drugs, rehabilitative services, or home health services. Instead, two-thirds of Canadians take out private insurance policies to cover these benefits. The Netherlands has a similar set of benefits (it also excludes dental and vision care), as does Australia. What’s more, the Sanders plan does not subject consumers to any out-of-pocket spending on health aside from prescriptions drugs. This means there would be no charge when you go to the doctor, no copayments when you visit the emergency room. All those services would be covered fully by the universal Medicare plan.
The Sanders plan is more generous than the plans Americans currently receive at work too. Most employer-sponsored plans last year had a deductible of more than $1,000. It is more generous than the current Medicare program, which covers Americans over 65 and has seniors pay 20 percent of their doctor visit costs even after they meet their deductibles. Medicare, employer coverage, and these other countries show that nearly every insurance scheme we’re familiar with covers a smaller set of benefits with more out-of-pocket spending on the part of citizens. Private insurance plans often spring up to fill these gaps (in Canada, for example, vision and dental insurance is often sponsored by employers, much like in the United States). [...]
And as mentioned earlier, private supplementary plans could still exist under the Senate M4A plan (as long as they don't duplicate M4A coverage), which is certainly something that could be emphasized, during the course of the primary and general election campaigns.
Following up on the post above, in which I happened to quote Vox's Sarah Kliff: Kliff published a pertinent follow-up piece today.

I noticed that influential observers (such as interfluidity) are highlighting some key elements of Kliff's piece:

https://twitter.com/interfluidity/status/1092529706300170240
 
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danm999

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Oct 29, 2017
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My gut instinct is that Booker's pitch of beating Trump with love is going to go down like a sack of concrete in a well.
 

Deleted member 5666

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Sanders supporters would go to Warren. maybe a handful to Tulsi. Biden would be the absolute last stop.
This is absolutely not true. Polling has shown otherwise. Bernie’s base in 16 was not mostly just young leftists. A sizable part of his base were more conservative White Dems who didn’t want Hillary.
 
Oct 31, 2017
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Gabbard's use of "neocon/neolib" as scarecrows to rail against the mechanics of criticism, in and outside her own party, and as an antiestablishment deep state dogwhistle highlights her thinking and makes it all worse. Hopefully this run of hers makes her lose her seat to another Dem, too.
 

Sandstar

Member
Oct 28, 2017
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Jesus christ, can't she bothered to use proper spelling of you're and you. If she ever had my vote (and she didn't) she lost it now.
 

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Her tweets are her response from another time he tried to praise her, so probably fair to say she’d have a similar reaction to it now.
 
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