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2020 Democratic Presidential Primary | OT | Hickenlooper makes it to the debate
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I hope he at least sticks around till Iowa so we can get some decent Butt Assessor jokes in.
Rankings day!
It's an interesting one with Harris and AIPAC after Williamson taking a stand against BDS this morning. If I wasn't so impressed with Mayor Pete in the last week and him drawing in the youth vote and seeming to be a spoiler against Sanders then Harris would be taking 2nd place. She definitely closed the gap between her and Pete though. It takes courage in the current Democrat environment to show Israel support and both women showed support and courage today.
1. Marianne Williamson
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2. Pete Buttigieg
3. Kamala Harris
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4. Beto O'Rourke
5. Elizabeth Warren
6. Andrew Yang
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7. Amy Klobuchar
8. Jay Inslee
9. Cory Booker
10. Julian Castro
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11. Joe Biden
1. Sanders
2. Buttigieg
3. Warren
I'd say Warren and Buttigieg are pretty interchangeable at this point. I do think Buttigieg will start polling better at some point but we'll see. Warren should be polling better, she'd be a great pick imo.
I have Warren as my second. Everyone else aren't even a consideration for me.
The DNA test was such a poor move that showed a clear lack of judgement
She missed her window in 2016 to be where Bernie is now, tbh. Lot of the wind in her sails died out.
I agree in that I don't know if she'd beat Trump, which sucks because it's the single most important qualification.
Warren has no chance in the general. I think Beto, Biden, or Buttigeig could win, although Butti being gay will hurt him in the midwest
I think it's more her being a Senator. No trip to AIPAC but you can't not meet with the California AIPAC delegation without staking a bolder position that could come back to bite her should she not occupy the White House in 2021.
This is the advantage Beto will have in not being an active officeholder.
For me and my vote... she'll have to answer for this.
With others still potentially getting into the race, a little under a year until the first primary, and the first debate a few months away, I think it's best not to go in with favorites since it'll be easier to judge them in debates, for example, and during a snafu which each of them will likely encounter and how they react to it; I think it's easier when you're not aligned with one just yet. There's so much time and no rush to just observe how they handle things and articulate their messages throughout 2019.
Plus, it's harder to know who can win in the general yet. I don't think we can just discount Warren, wonder about Buttigieg's name, etc. etc. until we see how they operate in campaign mode. I mean, I remember clearly when Jeb Bush wasn't a punchline and a meme. He frightened many of us since he attracted the Hispanic vote in Florida, but by the end of the primaries, he was a joke candidate and Trump was the serious contender. Like seriously, holy shit at how that happened.
I'm sure some of you can do it, but I find it harder to judge with a critical and unbiased eye if I'm don't feel in a candidate's camp just yet. I'm certainly more excited about the debates considering the level of interest there is in running this time, as opposed to five people, two of which didn't last past the first debate.
Plus, it's harder to know who can win in the general yet. I don't think we can just discount Warren, wonder about Buttigieg's name, etc. etc. until we see how they operate in campaign mode. I mean, I remember clearly when Jeb Bush wasn't a punchline and a meme. He frightened many of us since he attracted the Hispanic vote in Florida, but by the end of the primaries, he was a joke candidate and Trump was the serious contender. Like seriously, holy shit at how that happened.
I'm sure some of you can do it, but I find it harder to judge with a critical and unbiased eye if I'm don't feel in a candidate's camp just yet. I'm certainly more excited about the debates considering the level of interest there is in running this time, as opposed to five people, two of which didn't last past the first debate.
I think it's hers to lose in the general unless she picks up a lot more momentum in the primaries and wises up, however I do like some of her policies and her focus on education
Her whole handling of that makes me thinks the debates would be an absolute disaster
I do wish her prospects were better though.
Warren is the best candidate on paper. She 's also the worst candidate for campaigning and debating though so I highly doubt she even wins the primary save for multiple acts of god.
At this point it would basically take an act of god for her to even be marginally competitive.
My rankings for the week:
1.Buttigieg
2.Warren
3.Beto
Not happy about Kamala's AIPAC shenanigans and Sanders is cancelled after his shitty hires.
1.Buttigieg
2.Warren
3.Beto
Not happy about Kamala's AIPAC shenanigans and Sanders is cancelled after his shitty hires.
I like Warren but I am still on the Sanders train for his politics and because I think he can win.
Switch Harris' dad and Buttigieg's dad's corpse and we've got a deal.
Can't wait until we find out that Julian is secretly from another Castro family and Biden was actually one of the Weathermen.
NGL if it came out that Biden participated in the Chicago riots I'd be morally obligated to vote for him.
Regardless of whether or not Beto's distancing from AIPAC is sincere, it's good to see that a major candidate can move away from it.
I had them switched at first, but translating Prison Notebooks gave him the edge for me.
He doesn't light a burning fire within people? He merely wins people over calmly with his intelligence and thoughtfulness.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
More polls!
The latest results are based on 13,725 interviews with registered voters, collected from March 18- 24, 2019.
Biden- 35%
Bernie- 25%
Harris- 8%
O'rourke- 8%
Warren- 7%
Cory Booker- 4%
Amy Klobachour- 2%
Pete Butigieg- 2%
Rest- 1%
O'rourke still not climbing surprisingly. Why is he failing when the media has been incredibly positive for him?
More polls!
The latest results are based on 13,725 interviews with registered voters, collected from March 18- 24, 2019.
Biden- 35%
Bernie- 25%
Harris- 8%
O'rourke- 8%
Warren- 7%
Cory Booker- 4%
Amy Klobachour- 2%
Pete Butigieg- 2%
Rest- 1%
O'rourke still not climbing surprisingly. Why is he failing when the media has been incredibly positive for him?
Media has been more negative than anything to Beto. Still seems to come down to name recognition at this point and polls don't mean much right now
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Some movement in people's second choice. Now pretty much everyone's second choice is Biden rather than a mix of Biden and Bernie(Only Warren supporters have Bernie as their top second choice now).
... And now even MORE Sanders' supporters second choice is Biden.
Yup, we're gonna get the great white hope... Sigh.
i dont understand how people are shocked by this kind of shit. like, look up who these people really are before throwing your support behind them
Sanders
Warrem
Buttigieg
Sanders
Warrem
Buttigieg
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Again, let's wait for the bulk of people to actually start paying attention. No pre-July polls really matter, especially when results now are so clearly a result of name recognition.
Slight downtick for Bernie, slight uptick for Pete. Basically everything else remains flat.
Dick Gephardt & Joe Lieberman were ahead of the pack at this point in 2003 and Bill Clinton didn't even enter the race until October 1991.
In the absence of a Clinton-esque forgone conclusion or an Obama-level phenom, I would read very little into polling at this point.
For what it's worth, I think the two front runners at this point each have their own problems. Both are very, very old with lots of baggage. Biden has a track record of fizzling quickly in nationwide campaigns & I'm utterly convinced that Sanders would be an absolute catastrophe in a general election, probably falling to the biggest electoral college defeat for a Democrat since 1988.
In the absence of a Clinton-esque forgone conclusion or an Obama-level phenom, I would read very little into polling at this point.
For what it's worth, I think the two front runners at this point each have their own problems. Both are very, very old with lots of baggage. Biden has a track record of fizzling quickly in nationwide campaigns & I'm utterly convinced that Sanders would be an absolute catastrophe in a general election, probably falling to the biggest electoral college defeat for a Democrat since 1988.
Tulsi hasn't even reached the threshold. She's not really a contender.
Are people actually shocked about that? I'm not.
What really shocked me was Howard Schultz not going to AIPAC.
Fair enough, but Biden's support is so rock solid and the mix of support from second-choices seems to be converging. 10% more of Bernie's voters view Biden as a second choice from the last morning consult poll I saw. If I HAD to bet on someone winning at this point, I'd bet on Biden even if I don't want him to win.
Dick Gephardt & Joe Lieberman were ahead of the pack at this point in 2003 and Bill Clinton didn't even enter the race until October 1991, at which point he was seen as a rank outsider.
In the absence of a Clinton-esque forgone conclusion or an Obama-level phenom, I would read very little into polling at this point. I have a feeling that unless he tires of his breakneck campaigning or has horrible debates that O'Rourke will pull this out, and my view is that it would be a horrible match-up for Trump. People seldom vote on the minutia of policy but are swayed by personality and appearance, so if you have a broad-brush opponent who can articulate a positive, counter-Trump message & make the Conman look like the low-energy turd that he is, that's bad news for him. Do I wish such consequential elections went beyond zingers, red meat and artifice? Yes, but that's not the reality of the situation.
For what it's worth, I think the two front runners at this point each have their own problems. Both are very, very old with lots of baggage. Biden has a track record of fizzling quickly in nationwide campaigns & I'm utterly convinced that Sanders would be an absolute catastrophe in a general election, probably falling to the biggest electoral college defeat for a Democrat since 1988. He's divisive & ornery, makes Trump look young and would be successfully 'othered' as a mad socialist by the - regrettably - normalised Trump, steward of a decent capitalist economy. In 2016, before the Conman had been handed the legitimacy of the Presidency, perhaps it could have been a different story.
In the absence of a Clinton-esque forgone conclusion or an Obama-level phenom, I would read very little into polling at this point. I have a feeling that unless he tires of his breakneck campaigning or has horrible debates that O'Rourke will pull this out, and my view is that it would be a horrible match-up for Trump. People seldom vote on the minutia of policy but are swayed by personality and appearance, so if you have a broad-brush opponent who can articulate a positive, counter-Trump message & make the Conman look like the low-energy turd that he is, that's bad news for him. Do I wish such consequential elections went beyond zingers, red meat and artifice? Yes, but that's not the reality of the situation.
For what it's worth, I think the two front runners at this point each have their own problems. Both are very, very old with lots of baggage. Biden has a track record of fizzling quickly in nationwide campaigns & I'm utterly convinced that Sanders would be an absolute catastrophe in a general election, probably falling to the biggest electoral college defeat for a Democrat since 1988. He's divisive & ornery, makes Trump look young and would be successfully 'othered' as a mad socialist by the - regrettably - normalised Trump, steward of a decent capitalist economy. In 2016, before the Conman had been handed the legitimacy of the Presidency, perhaps it could have been a different story.
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