2020 Democratic Presidential Primary | OT2 | Warren's college tuition plan includes cancelling college debt

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Deleted member 10551

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Oct 27, 2017
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What happened to not believing in electability?
Bernie supporters and Biden supporters each think their guy is the most electable. This isn't just between different policy priorities, they each think the other guy is more likely lose to Trump. This is why 2016 was so bitter- most of Bernie's supporters truly believed that Hillary could lose to Trump (or at least was more likely to).

The fact that Hillary lost is reinforcing that belief about Biden for 2020.
 

mutantmagnet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,058
Its funny how people are freaking out over... Fucking canvassing.
It's not funny at all.

Russia was canvassing.
Cambridge Analytica was canvassing.

We are at the point we fundamentally have to choose if it is ok for any faction to do this without our consent or should we fight back against this.

We are at a point where those who want to win elections and are politically on our side don't want their hands tied so even if we all agree that this is wrong they won't do anything about it until they have a veto proof majority.

To them it is better to ask for forgiveness of those who don't like this aggressive canvassing than to ask for permission.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,745
A good summation of why i hope one of the other candidates breaks out. (Preferably Harris or Beto)

 

BoboBrazil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,374
Here’s Beto’s interview from earlier, not great audio quality but it’s watchable. He did a nice job laying out his recent policy proposal, but he’s still got to get a bit more comfortable speaking in an environment where he needs to generate interest instead of playing into people already interested like at his campaign stops.
He just straight up ignored the last few questions and started saying whatever he wanted to😂 Not the best appearance for Beto. He's got to fine tune his answers better than that. I think he gets really nervous in news interviews for some reason.
 

Sokrates

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
560
It's not funny at all.

Russia was canvassing.
Cambridge Analytica was canvassing.

We are at the point we fundamentally have to choose if it is ok for any faction to do this without our consent or should we fight back against this.

We are at a point where those who want to win elections and are politically on our side don't want their hands tied so even if we all agree that this is wrong they won't do anything about it until they have a veto proof majority.

To them it is better to ask for forgiveness of those who don't like this aggressive canvassing than to ask for permission.
“Everything I don’t like is Russia”
 

Tukarrs

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,265
Everyone is prone to some errors some times. Distrust of the media from bernieverse twitter yesterday


(This one has since been corrected. It's allegedly something to do with how google parses some html tags)



It unfortunately reinforces the idea that there's subtle manipulation.

I think it's just Confirmation bias. Fox recently had a poll mistake that boosted Bernie's chance vs Trump (swapped with Biden), but supporters would not likely notice it.

It's similar to something I've noticed about fans of any politicians. Anything negative is viewed as a hit piece or a conspiracy theory. (MSM, or BERNIE BROS, or RUSSIA being the alleged culprit.) You can see when the first 'allegations' came up about Biden that people (on twitter) reflexively say it's a Bernie plot. Luckily we don't see the Bernie being a Russian Stooge much here.
 

Goat Mimicry

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,692
A good summation of why i hope one of the other candidates breaks out. (Preferably Harris or Beto)
But Beto has proven that he’s just as naive as Biden with regards to Republicans. He gave his Republican neighbor’s campaign a lifeline and was repaid by said neighbor saying that Trump would be a better president.
 

brainchild

VFX Artist/Consultant
Verified
Nov 25, 2017
8,755
Minnesota
Your insistence on religion having no place and being "creepy" is largely rooted in your own personal beliefs and general mistrust. It isn't healthy rhetoric. Separation of church and state exists, yes, but religion can help explain or provide guidance for how a candidate's views and morality is shaped and formed. That doesn't make a candidate bad for providing context into how their world views are shaped and formed. Even Bernie has provided context for his religious beliefs in the past, and it is something that is totally normal.

Additionally, you're naive if you think that the Democratic party shouldn't be targeting/countering the religious right (Evangelicals). They're above and beyond the biggest problem base in the Republican Party, and they try to claim dominance and shift the conversation on so many social issues through their ideologue. We should all welcome and hope that there's a resurgence of the religious left so the Democratic party can begin to reclaim the "morale high ground" on issues in the eyes of the general public/voters. A lot of voters are, sadly, motivated by religious belief.
I have absolutely no problem with people using religion to explain their personal morals, but that has nothing to do with the party itself (disparate people in the party are a different story and they should be allowed to promote their personal values in whatever context they see fit so long as the scope stays within their personal moral framework). That's why I like Pete's statement that "God has no political party" and I would rather him use that rhetoric to counter the right trying to make God partisan instead of saying "our party should be religious too!".

As a party, we do need to put a greater focus on our moral values, but religious contextualization of said values should be left to the individuals of the party and not part of the mission statement of the party or greater overall message for the party; in other words, it should have nothing to do with party politics. As a registered Democrat, I am completely averse to having the Democratic party have our values as a being described as having come from God, even though I understand and acknowledge that different people in the party should be able to do that on an individual level. Just like atheists aren't wholly representative of the Democratic party, religious people aren't either, and we do not need to get to a point where people think of the Democratic party as a religious party (though acknowledging that their are religious people in the party is fine).

So yeah, targeting religious people is fine in my book, but it does not require describing the party as religious or the party needing to adhere to religious traditions.

EDIT:

And btw, I'm totally down with the Democratic Party officially claiming the moral high ground and emphasizing morality in our platform; I'm just saying that as a government affiliation, religion should not be part of that (but it's fine for individuals to add that context personally).
 
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Br3wnor

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
4,356
A good summation of why i hope one of the other candidates breaks out. (Preferably Harris or Beto)

Listen, no Democratic President is getting jack shit done legislatively without an absolute miracle in the Senate and abolishment of the Filibuster. MAYBE you get some shoring up of the ACA or some small scale infrastructure stuff passed, but the big dream Democratic stuff have absolutely no way of becoming law in the current system.

So unless the party is willing to abolish the Filibuster if they somehow take the Senate, most of these policy proposals by all the candidates are just pipe dreams. Most important part of getting a Democratic President is preventing a 7-2 conservative court which is something that could easily happen if Trump wins in 2020.

Now obviously you can’t run as a nihilist Democrat so you’re gonna have to blow smoke up people’s asses talking about ‘middle ground’ or ‘reaching across the aisle’ but none of it is practical.
 

brainchild

VFX Artist/Consultant
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Nov 25, 2017
8,755
Minnesota
But I thought for sure women didn't like Bernie Sanders? I was just fed this narrative yesterday! Sigh I just don't know what to believe!
The data Maddow posted only counted people who donated more than $200, so it was pretty obvious that the data was not fully representative of the ratio of women who donated to his campaign.
 

tommy7154

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,370
Wait are you guys trying to say that polls can be misleading, biased, or just plain wrong???

Whatever.

BIDEN 2020 COMCAST for VP they're people too you know.
 

Erpy

Member
May 31, 2018
2,242
A good summation of why i hope one of the other candidates breaks out. (Preferably Harris or Beto)

I'm not completely convinced Biden actually believes what he's saying. He's personally been on the front-lines of that particular battle during the Obama years, frequently acting as Obama's liaison with Republican congressional leaders due to his long years with many of them. He knows from personal experience that McConnell isn't gonna stop filibustering everything just because he's asked really nice. Heck, even Obama's always been speaking in favor of the system that's been shivving him for 6 years on end.

Unfortunately, no presidential candidate is gonna campaign on the premise that nothing they propose will pass Republican stonewalling anyway, because if they do, voters will just move on to someone who WILL promise them to get his/her policies through congress. I mean, how many candidates support nuking the filibuster despite that being (in the best possible scenario) the difference between getting literally nothing through congress or getting at most stuff Joe Manchin approves of through congress? So candidates will simply talk about their programs and put up a positive fascade because nobody wants to be the nihilist and campaign on working within a broken system.

Well, there's always the Trump solution of just declaring national emergencies, instructing federal employees to break the law and offer them pardons if they get indicted over it, but for obvious reasons no Dem candidate is gonna go there.

In the end, what kind of legislation gets done won't be different whether it's Biden or Bernie.
 

lmcfigs

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
10,930
The data Maddow posted only counted people who donated more than $200, so it was pretty obvious that the data was not fully representative of the ratio of women who donated to his campaign.
I think for most candidates, that's alright. But for Bernie, the vast majority of his donors are small contributions. And that's why it doesn't work. Probably this is true for Elizabeth Warren as well.
 

dlauv

One Winged Slayer
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Oct 27, 2017
7,632
Really low sampling of <45 ?
It's just polls. They've got a B+ from 538 like Emerson. The real issue I have with polls this early and from big names is how much they potentially influence people's views of a certain candidate, though that's not to say they're worthless.
 

Snowy

Banned
Nov 11, 2017
1,399
Thinking about electability is not a problem.

Thinking about “electability” as consisting only of being a squishy moderate who will be all things to all people IS a problem.
 

lmcfigs

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
10,930
I'm not completely convinced Biden actually believes what he's saying. He's personally been on the front-lines of that particular battle during the Obama years, frequently acting as Obama's liaison with Republican congressional leaders due to his long years with many of them. He knows from personal experience that McConnell isn't gonna stop filibustering everything just because he's asked really nice. Heck, even Obama's always been speaking in favor of the system that's been shivving him for 6 years on end.

Unfortunately, no presidential candidate is gonna campaign on the premise that nothing they propose will pass Republican stonewalling anyway, because if they do, voters will just move on to someone who WILL promise them to get his/her policies through congress. I mean, how many candidates support nuking the filibuster despite that being (in the best possible scenario) the difference between getting literally nothing through congress or getting at most stuff Joe Manchin approves of through congress? So candidates will simply talk about their programs and put up a positive fascade because nobody wants to be the nihilist and campaign on working within a broken system.

Well, there's always the Trump solution of just declaring national emergencies, instructing federal employees to break the law and offer them pardons if they get indicted over it, but for obvious reasons no Dem candidate is gonna go there.

In the end, what kind of legislation gets done won't be different whether it's Biden or Bernie.
I would like to think Biden is smarter than this, but there's really no reason to doubt he's for real about working w/ Republicans. Like just a few weeks ago he lamented the days he could disagree politely with segregationists and then grab dinner with them. So he has a pretty high threshold with who to work w/.
 

dlauv

One Winged Slayer
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Oct 27, 2017
7,632
Hmm...

I'm sure it's just a case of bad faith actors being the loudest. Most people seem pretty cool about the plan.
 

tommy7154

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,370
It's just polls. They've got a B+ from 538 like Emerson. The real issue I have with polls this early and from big names is how much they potentially influence people's views of a certain candidate, though that's not to say they're worthless.
That's the point and you're exactly right. They're a tool you can use, and at the same time people need to realize they're a tool they (the pollsters in general) can use. I don't care if it shows Biden or Sanders or God himself in the lead, don't blindly trust polls.
 

KingK

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,793
A good summation of why i hope one of the other candidates breaks out. (Preferably Harris or Beto)

This is exactly my issue with Bernie (and Biden, but he has tons of issues).

This is also the biggest thing I like about Pete. He's said Republican politicians haven't acted in good faith in at least over a decade, and that addressing systemic changes that over represent rural voters (and consequently Republicans) is his top priority. This is the attitude and types of changes needed for a progressive platform to actually pass and withstand judicial challenge. Even if I agree with Bernie and Warren more on some policies, we need to rebalance the political system to actually pass anything of substance. Warren gets this, I'm unconvinced Bernie does at all.
 

dlauv

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,632
Yeah and if this guy on twitter just says something is the case, there's no reason to doubt it.
I'm posting it because it's in agreement with my own conclusions posted a few pages ago albeit put more succinctly. Do you have a better take or an actual rebuttal? Or is it just untrue because "reasons?"

Edit: Oh, I see now. I finished editing my post after you quoted. Sorry about the tone. If you have answers to the questions I just asked, I'd like to hear them though.
 
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Tukarrs

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,265
It's just polls. They've got a B+ from 538 like Emerson. The real issue I have with polls this early and from big names is how much they potentially influence people's views of a certain candidate, though that's not to say they're worthless.
Bernard's strengths is with younger people. We already know he's not as popular with the older demographic.

That this specific poll doesn't have enough <45 compared to both the 50-64 or 65+ categories says it's probably not reflective of reality.

(The 18-44 demo has a larger votershare than either of those category in 2016. )
 

Exellus

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
2,348
You know, just once in my adult life, I'd like to be able to vote for a President I was actually excited about.
 

dlauv

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,632
I like this idea of communicating via proxy Twitter posts, but we probably shouldn't make it a habit.



Bernard's strengths is with younger people. We already know he's not as popular with the older demographic.

That this specific poll doesn't have enough <45 compared to both the 50-64 or 65+ categories says it's probably not reflective of reality.

(The 18-44 demo has a larger votershare than either of those category in 2016. )
You're right. Could there be any other reason that <45 data was excluded from that spreadsheet other than simply excluding them from the polls?
 

BoboBrazil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,374
I like this idea of communicating via proxy Twitter posts, but we shouldn't make it a habit.

There's one more follow-up post he makes if you click the thread, but these two are at the heart of the matter.
They basically say the same thing which is that sunrise movement won't be happy with anything other than Bernie. I knew they were bs when most climate change nonprofits and groups came out in support of Beto's plan.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,745
They basically say the same thing which is that sunrise movement won't be happy with anything other than Bernie. I knew they were bs when most climate change nonprofits and groups came out in support of Beto's plan.
This is why hopping onto Bernie's bills hasn't really done anything for various candidates- the hardcore stans only want Bernie himself, it's a personality thing, not a policy thing.
If anyone would understand old white people believing and perpetuating fantasies it would be Paul Krugman, but I think I’ll pass on his advice.
What is that supposed to mean.
 

phanphare

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,072
I don't know why a lot of Bernie twitter supporters are going so hard at Beto. if it's not Bernie or Warren I wonder where these people have the rest of the field ranked because Beto seems like the next best thing if it's not either of those candidates based on rhetoric and policy. he's actually shown himself to listen to the communities he goes to, he's pretty progressive with his rhetoric, and he tends to back up that rhetoric with policy proposals and support. what else are they seeing that I'm not? sure, when he was gearing up to announce and when he announced he seemed like a nothing candidate. we're long past that though.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,745
I don't know why a lot of Bernie twitter supporters are going so hard at Beto. if it's not Bernie or Warren I wonder where these people have the rest of the field ranked because Beto seems like the next best thing if it's not either of those candidates based on rhetoric and policy. he's actually shown himself to listen to the communities he goes to, he's pretty progressive with his rhetoric, and he tends to back up that rhetoric with policy proposals and support. what else are they seeing that I'm not?
Because he is a threat. And so they are attacking him because they want to cut down anyone they see as a threat to their beloved Bernie. It's what you see with console wars, drag race fans, literally any type of toxic fandom.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,696
Minneapolis
If anyone would understand old white people believing and perpetuating fantasies it would be Paul Krugman, but I think I’ll pass on his advice.
do you want to actually refute what he says?

Bernie lines up extremely well with my political views but I don't support him because I think he's naive. The line from 2016 - that he'll somehow get all this progressive hippie legislation through a Republican Congress or overcome a filibuster by mobilizing millions of college students to protest on Capitol Hill - doesn't seem to have changed much for 2020.

Warren knows none of that shit is going to pass over a filibuster. So kill the filibuster.
 

TheModestGun

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
3,781
Europe is markedly less unequal than the US, in large part because of the access to higher education.




https://wir2018.wid.world/files/download/wir2018-summary-english.pdf

What is it that you even want, Kirblar? Serious question. Other than incremental reforms, what do you want. I don't care about the "political feasibility" of it, if you could get your perfect policies, what do you even want from them?

It’s not that hard, when the middle and working class are less burdened with debt and have higher potential for education, they can actually build wealth and income both from better job outlooks and less debt.
 

tommy7154

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,370
This is why hopping onto Bernie's bills hasn't really done anything for various candidates- the hardcore stans only want Bernie himself, it's a personality thing, not a policy thing.
It's all about the policies for me. He wants what's (imo) morally right. It's not the man it's the message. It's why I like Warren as well. Close enough to Sanders on most things.

The difference is if you believe the particular candidate. I believe Sanders when he says he wants this or that. I do not believe the other candidates (again that doesn't include Warren). Give me one I can believe is telling the truth and I'm on board.
 
Oct 31, 2017
4,333
Unknown


It's great to see Marianne included, making a showing and above other candidates in official polling. It reflects other information like her fundraising numbers that she would have this level of support.
This may be her first qualifying poll for the debates.
Just in time for Beltaine.

In order to qualify for the first two debates, debate entrants must either:

Attain a minimum of 1% support in minimum three approved official polls for either the national level or the first four primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina). The polling threshold will be determined using polls published after January 1, 2019 up until two weeks before the scheduled debate, with each candidate only being able to count one poll by the same pollster within each region towards the requirement. For a poll to be considered it also needs to have been commissioned or conducted by this limited set of organizations: the Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, The Des Moines Register, Fox News, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times, National Public Radio, Quinnipiac University, Reuters, the University of New Hampshire, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Winthrop University.
 
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