2020 Democratic Presidential Primary | OT2 | Warren's college tuition plan includes cancelling college debt

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Menelaus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,682
Twist: a massive block of NEETs unrepresented by polls shows up in sweatpants for the primary and propels Yang to the top, everyone gets a thousand bucks, welcome to the technocracy
Better spend your $1000 on a gun so you can protect yourself and your property when the government defaults and the gibs run out.
 

JaredG

Member
May 17, 2018
889
Yall are freaking out too much lol. Biden's obviously the frontrunner but this current boost he's getting isn't a surprise. We all knew it would happen when he announced. It will most likely revert to the mean in a couple weeks just like other announcement boosts faded. And if it doesn't, well, literally nothing interesting is happening in the race right now and so relatively few people are paying attention. The debates will be where things really take off.
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,928
How many of those did Hillary get out to vote Dem?
Obviously none, because lefty who angrily votes for Jill Stein because they think all non-Bernie options are evil corporatist capitalits isn't really going to be willing to vote for anyone besides Sanders on the D ticket.

But there at plenty of misogynistic swing voters who would be more willing to vote for a white man whose name they know that isn't married to the guy that shepherded NAFTA through. This is NOT an endorsement of Biden and please do not take it as such. But I don't think he would have lost 2016 for this reason, and he probably wouldn't lose 2020 for pretty much the same reasons. It's just.. .we really should be able to do better here.
 

KingK

Member
Oct 27, 2017
686
Indianapolis
What the fuck at these polls. Jesus fuck. Why is Clinton on there? Why is Warren all over the place? Where the fuck did the mini Booker boost come from? And WHO THE HELL IS SUPPORTING BIDEN!?

Like, I know anecdotes aren't worth shit, but literally nobody I know backs him. He's gonna win the nomination and tank in the general, isn't he? I don't want anyone that fucking old, but at least Bernie has good policies.
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,928
What the fuck at these polls. Jesus fuck. Why is Clinton on there? Why is Warren all over the place? Where the fuck did the mini Booker boost come from? And WHO THE HELL IS SUPPORTING BIDEN!?

Like, I know anecdotes aren't worth shit, but literally nobody I know backs him. He's gonna win the nomination and tank in the general, isn't he? I don't want anyone that fucking old, but at least Bernie has good policies.
If you have to win with a coaltion that's either the oldest half of the party or the youngest one, the oldest half is the one you want because they turn out to vote more.
 

Cheebo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,767
Ann Arbor, MI
He's gonna win the nomination and tank in the general, isn't he? I don't want anyone that fucking old, but at least Bernie has good policies.
This doesn’t make sense. Biden’s general election numbers are the best of anyone in the field. It’s one of the key reason he has support in the primary because he is “electable”.
 

Blue Skies

Member
Mar 27, 2019
1,074
I think it’s funny how Biden would be the least interesting candidate for young voters, but Bernie which is the same age would be the biggest draw for the youth.
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,928
This doesn’t make sense. Biden’s general election numbers are the best of anyone in the field. It’s one of the key reason he has support in the primary because he is “electable”.
Obama didn't win over a ton of voters until late in 2007/early 2008 when he stood toe to toe with Hillary in the debates and won Iowa, flipping a lot of voters from Hillary who were considering him but weren't sure about his "electability" prior to that. It's a big factor with an electorate that's seen Gore, Kerry and now Hillary go down, and it takes a lot to overcome that. But it's not impossible.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
3,911
Until debates begin, I'm not going to soil my undergarments.

There are over 20 candidates, and he's arguably the most recognizable face of the Democratic party.

If by the end of the year he commands a 20+ point lead, you guys can commence the pants shitting.
 

Nocturnal

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,116
Some people are way too worried about Bernie's "floundering" numbers this early.
Bernie campaign helped organize 4,700 house parties just this a week ago with over 60,000 people attending such events across the US. The new app can help people to organize at such events. Since Bern also supports public canvassing. So if a potential supporter is encountered in a canvas and is interested they are hooked up with the app and can get locally organized. The app also allows users to check if a person is registered to vote which was an issue in a few states last time - New York for example. The campaign itself since back in February had over 4000 volunteers. The organizational capacity will really start to shine as we get closer to election. I think this is a much better operation which is equipped to really create grassroots movements across the US this time. Last time Sanders had digital campaigning and messaging that really helped him propel himself but this time there is actual boots on the ground nearly an year ahead of the actual votes being cast.
For example 800 such events were held in California, California has moved up this time and what matter there is finances, organization and message that resonates with the electorate. Funny thing is that I think Sanders campaign will have all three in spades. In Iowa Sanders now has among the largest organizations of all the Democratic presidential candidates currently running.
One thing Sanders campaign did after 2016 was working towards electing local Democratic Party committees with people who volunteered or were sympathetic to Sanders during his run. So I think there will be places where the Local Democratic Party committees will be favorable to him and provide support on the ground.
There is still an year to go but I honestly won't be surprised if he runs away with the nomination if no one is able to articulate his message and policies better at the debates.

On a separate note I think people are overestimating Biden as usual, and as I've said a while back as people start to actually pay attention to the primaries his numbers will begin to falter. Currently a lot of people aren't as engaged and as this changes and we actually get to the voting Biden will start to lose support. This always happens and it could very well be the case after the first debates. Polling means very little right now, when we get to around 6 months away from the first votes being cast and Biden maintaining over 30% I will start to worry.
 

dlauv

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,889
Biden is Bernie's good friend. Why can't you guys be happy for him as I am sure Bernie is?
 

Ortix

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,158
Calm down everyone. That's not a good pollster at all, although it does follow the recent trend. But there's tons of time and enough debates left. Biden is quite clearly the frontrunner, but he just got a post-announcement bump and everything is still possible.
 

KingK

Member
Oct 27, 2017
686
Indianapolis
If you have to win with a coaltion that's either the oldest half of the party or the youngest one, the oldest half is the one you want because they turn out to vote more.
I think because I'm in Indiana, the old people I know who would probably be the Biden supporters are going to Pete instead.

This doesn’t make sense. Biden’s general election numbers are the best of anyone in the field. It’s one of the key reason he has support in the primary because he is “electable”.
He's going to be vulnerable to many of the same issues Clinton had, minus sexism (which may be enough for him to win). But the non sexist issues, like a closet full of skeletons and shitty votes, are probably even worse than Clinton. She was beating Trump by 10 points too until she got all her dirty laundry aired out through the general. Other candidates don't have such an extensive list of GE vulnerabilities imo. I also think his age will turn out to be a huge liability. He just sounds like he has one foot in the grave already.

Anyway, hope I'm wrong about all of this lol. Not gonna let myself freak out too much until after Christmas.
 
mod post

B-Dubs

Oh well, what the hell?
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
15,989
Official Staff Communication
After discussing user feedback submitted by PM, we have decided to close this OT a month early and lift the moratorium on individual Democratic Primary threads. In doing so we are trusting you to create threads with restraint and with quality OPs, and to remain civil and on-topic in those threads.

Please be aware that we will be watching carefully and moderating as actively as necessary to address the following:
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Ortix

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,158
I think because I'm in Indiana, the old people I know who would probably be the Biden supporters are going to Pete instead.


He's going to be vulnerable to many of the same issues Clinton had, minus sexism (which may be enough for him to win). But the non sexist issues, like a closet full of skeletons and shitty votes, are probably even worse than Clinton. She was beating Trump by 10 points too until she got all her dirty laundry aired out through the general. Other candidates don't have such an extensive list of GE vulnerabilities imo. I also think his age will turn out to be a huge liability. He just sounds like he has one foot in the grave already.

Anyway, hope I'm wrong about all of this lol. Not gonna let myself freak out too much until after Christmas.
The big thing that took Hillary down were (combined with the sexism, of course) the constant nonsense about her emails and the Comey announcement. That, along with Trump's approvals remaining horrifically bad and his appeal to moderates (way more so than Hillary) should be enough to see Biden comfortably through should it come to that. But I'm hoping it won't come to that.
 

BoboBrazil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,145
Trump is probably going to have the AG open an investigation into whoever his opponent is. Be prepared for this
 

thepotatoman

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,842
Denver
Official Staff Communication
After discussing user feedback submitted by PM, we have decided to close this OT a month early and lift the moratorium on individual Democratic Primary threads. In doing so we are trusting you to create threads with restraint and with quality OPs, and to remain civil and on-topic in those threads.

Please be aware that we will be watching carefully and moderating as actively as necessary to address the following:
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When is this happening? Today? I don't know the original planned date.
 
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bickieditches

Member
Aug 5, 2018
57
Of course I want the truth. And I also want to beat Trump more than anything, but I guess that's where we diverge. I think Sanders has a far better chance of beating Trump. Hopefully we'll have a better idea in a few months. Thanks for daring to answer.
For what it's worth, I'd take Bernie in a heartbeat. I just keep alternating between thinking "Bernie will crush Trump" and "Trump will crush Bernie." He's similar to Trump in that they both aren't charismatic per se, but rather they have a certain gravitas which attracts people. I just don't know which one would prevail over the course of a year-long race.
 

Damisa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
192
Wouldn't it make more sense to keep a generic Primary thread open to discuss things like the latest polls or campaign stops that don't really deserve a separate thread?
 

Tukarrs

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,241
A lot of things don't warrant their own thread, like each individual poll. I would like a generic Dem Primary thread still up.


Also check out this clip of Bernie corrupting the youths.

 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,280
Just think: Dems are better than the average I voter. This has always been the electorate. The reason they didn't like Hillary was because she's boring and doesn't get people fired up, it had nothing to do with policy.

People need to accept that democracy is a popularity contest.
 

Chaos Legion

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,570
Official Staff Communication
After discussing user feedback submitted by PM, we have decided to close this OT a month early and lift the moratorium on individual Democratic Primary threads. In doing so we are trusting you to create threads with restraint and with quality OPs, and to remain civil and on-topic in those threads.

Please be aware that we will be watching carefully and moderating as actively as necessary to address the following:
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So, are threads discussing a candidate's campaign ok?

As in, a lot of posters post campaign updates for Kamala and Beto in this thread, which I'm interested in, but aren't necessarily newsworthy/new thread worthy. Could there be a Beto 2020 OT which is just dedicated to all of his campaign news?
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,280
Oh, and I have mixed feelings about the OT closing. On the one hand, there really should be new threads for new news. On the other, we're gonna have a flood of completely out of context thread titles whose content tells a different story than the implication of the thread title and the poster.
 

phanphare

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,792
Oh, and I have mixed feelings about the OT closing. On the one hand, there really should be new threads for new news. On the other, we're gonna have a flood of completely out of context thread titles whose content tells a different story than the implication of the thread title and the poster.
so same as it ever was
 

tommy7154

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,564
Official Staff Communication
After discussing user feedback submitted by PM, we have decided to close this OT a month early and lift the moratorium on individual Democratic Primary threads. In doing so we are trusting you to create threads with restraint and with quality OPs, and to remain civil and on-topic in those threads.

Please be aware that we will be watching carefully and moderating as actively as necessary to address the following:
  • Threads devolving into "mini-OTs" instead of focusing on the topic in the title. If a discussion is not bringing anything new to the table, it is liable to be locked.
  • "Factions" of members colluding to engage in petty and personal vendettas against each other. We know it's too much to expect you all to get along, but these threads are meant to provide discussion for the whole community. They are not battlegrounds for your clique to settle scores with others. When you disagree, do so on substance and without invective.
  • Excessive thread posting on similar topics by the same members, especially with low quality or low content OPs consisting of little more than an article link and/or quote. Please think carefully about how much substance your thread really has before you create it.
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Personally I think it's a mistake to close this thread. What is and isn't grounds for a new thread? Warren tweets out a new policy. Is that threadworthy? What about polls? They're dropping all the time. How about when Trump or the rest of the shitbag GOP do something and the 2020 D candidates weigh in on it? Is that threadworthy?

I don't know, seems like mods are going to have entirely too much to deal with and I have no idea how you plan to be unbiased in what you do or don't close. Is there a plan/process for that?

In my opinion allowing big new news should have a new thread. This one should not be closed though. Can we make a poll now of the candidates or will those still be closed for reasons aside from that previously given (that they belong here in this thread)? Lots to think about.

I'm sure I have more to say but wanted to say it before this thread is locked.

And for the daily back and forth do we now just go to the PoliERA thread? I guess that's where I'll be.
 
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