2020 Presidential Democratic Primary Debates 1+2 |OT| June 26-27, 2019

[Steel]

So, the morning consult poll is in for the debate, and well...

2020 Democratic Primary

morningconsult.com

Biden goes down to 32%, Warren stayed statisically the same (lost 1% but that's MOE stuff) at 12%, Bernie is flat at 19%, Harris jumped up to 12%, Beto lost half his voters, Butt is about the same.

Interesting movement in second choices:
Sanders second choice is still Biden and vice versa by huge margins BUT now Buttigieg's second choice is Harris(And Biden is no longer anwhere seen in Butt's second choices when he was top with Warren second), Harris voter's second choice is Warren, Warren voter's second choice is Harris.

Bernie's voters are most likely to overlook Biden's foot in mouth in the last debate it seems.

 

[brainchild]

Bernie's voters are most likely to overlook Biden's foot in mouth in the last debate it seems.

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Not so sure about that. Bernie voter's second choice being Biden has seen a notable drop, and Biden voter's second choice being Bernie as seen a notable uptick. These were the numbers as of June 3rd:

36% to 27% is a 9 percentage point drop, and 28% to 32% is a 4 percentage point increase. It probably just doesn't seem that impactful because there were already so many Bernie voters who had Biden as their second choice (and vice versa), but there has definitely been some movement in Bernie's favor when it comes to second choice candidates and we don't know if it will turn into a trend yet.

 

[Steel]

Not so sure about that. Bernie voter's second choice being Biden has seen a notable drop, and Biden voter's second choice being Bernie as seen a notable uptick. These were the numbers as of June 3rd:

36% to 27% is a 9 percentage point drop, and 28% to 32% is a 4 percentage point increase. It probably just doesn't seem that impactful because there were already so many Bernie voters who had Biden as their second choice (and vice versa), but there has definitely been some movement in Bernie's favor when it comes to second choice candidates and we don't know if it will turn into a trend yet.

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Bernie voters are now the only major block that would prefer Biden if their candidate of choice were gone, there has been movement everywhere, but Warren voters have moved away from Bernie to Harris, Harris voters have moved away from Biden to Warren and Buttigieg with Bernie nowhere in the running for second choice, and Buttigieg moved toward Harris and Warren away from Biden with Biden and Bernie nowhere in the running.

Bernie supporters are the sole bloc still willing to consider Biden as a second choice, and Biden vice versa.

On top of this, if you still think this second choice shift bodes well for Bernie you have this:

Bernie's unfavorables (In the DEMOCRATIC party, mind, they're going to be much higher in the general electorate) are now greater than 20% and they're higher than Biden's 21%. Meanwhile Harris and Warren's unfavorables have gone down.

 

[Bliman]

I would like a Harris- Buttigieg ticket. How do you think black voters would react to that? would they turn off or would come out to vote? And is there a candidate that would make the black voters enthusiastic?

 

[John Harker]

I would like a Harris- Buttigieg ticket. How do you think black voters would react to that? would they turn off or would come out to vote? And is there a candidate that would make the black voters enthusiastic?

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I can't answer your questions, but your ticket is my dream team as of today

 

[Deleted member 55454]

I think Yang is the only viable option if Democrats (and Republicans) want the best possible future for the United States:

"Last week, Oxford Economics, a high-end consultancy, unveiled the findings of its latest peek into the future in a report entitled How Robots Change the World. Like most of these inquiries, it foresees a "great displacement" of employment by Automation 2.0. But this displacement, the report says, will not be evenly distributed around the world or within countries. "Our research shows," it says, "that the negative effects of robotisation are disproportionately felt in the lower-income regions of the globe's major economies – on average, a new robot displaces nearly twice as many jobs in lower-income regions compared with higher-income regions of the same country. At a time of worldwide concern about growing levels of economic inequality and political polarisation, this finding has important social and political implications." The report makes for pretty sobering reading. It claims that, on average, each additional robot wipes out 1.6 jobs. In lower-income regions of the world, each machine displaces 2.2 jobs, but only 1.3 in higher-income areas. The researchers compiled a "vulnerability score" for different regions in five countries – the UK, USA, France, Germany and Japan. The resulting maps confirm that employment in poorer areas will be hit harder by automation. "The regional inequalities that exist within countries," it concludes, "such as England's north-south divide, could be exacerbated by the rise of the robots." The report notes that this trend "has important implications for policy design in advanced economies pursuing international competitiveness through automation"." (6/30/19, Source)

 

[brainchild]

Bernie voters are now the only major block that would prefer Biden if their candidate of choice were gone, there has been movement everywhere, but Warren voters have moved away from Bernie to Harris and Buttigieg (They no longer even have Bernie in the running for second choice) Harris voters have moved away from Biden to Warren and Buttigieg with Bernie nowhere in the running for second choice, and Buttigieg moved toward Harris and Warren away from Biden with Biden and Bernie nowhere in the running.

Bernie supporters are the sole bloc still willing to consider Biden as a second choice, and Biden vice versa.

On top of this, if you still think this second choice shift bodes well for Bernie you have this:

Bernie's unfavorables (In the DEMOCRATIC party, mind, they're going to be much higher in the general electorate) are now greater than 20% and they're higher than Biden's 21%. Meanwhile Harris and Warren's unfavorables have gone down.

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You misinterpreted what I said. I didn't say that all the second choice movement was movement in Bernie's favor, just SOME movement, and we don''t know the extent of it, that's all.

Also, 538's poll (also conducted by Morning Consult) has Bernie as the most popular candidate in the Democratic party after the debate, and the data below inherently includes the opinion shift from specific voters pre and post debate, while the independent Morning Consult poll does not:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-poll/

His favorables increased +2 and unfavorables decreased -.1. We'll just have to see if his numbers continue to improve.

Again, I'm not saying that the results were all in Bernie's favor, but he did gain something out of his debate performance, objectively.

 

[Steel]

You misinterpreted what I said. I didn't say that all the second choice movement was movement in Bernie's favor, just SOME movement, and we don''t know the extent of it, that's all.

Also, 538's poll (also conducted by Morning Consult) has Bernie as the most popular candidate in the Democratic party after the debate, and the data below inherently includes the opinion shift from specific voters pre and post debate, while the independent Morning Consult poll does not:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-poll/

His favorables increased +2 and unfavorables decreased -.1. We'll just have to see if his numbers continue to improve.

Again, I'm not saying that the results were all in Bernie's favor, but he did gain something out of his debate performance, objectively.

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So, we're actually citing the same poll, but the poll I cited has one more day of data than the 538 article cites. You realize that, right?

 

[brainchild]

So, we're actually citing the same poll, but the poll I cited has one more day of data than the 538 article cites. You realize that, right?

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Incorrect. The poll I cited was done on behalf of 538 (it was a collaboration) while the poll you cited was Morning Consult doing their own poll. Morning Consult's respondents were interviewed on the 27th and 28th only (the 30th is when the article was updated).

538's respondents were polled (by Morning Consult) in three waves:

Round 1 (pre-debates):

06/19 - 06/26

Round 2 (post 1st debate):

06/26 - 06/27

Round 3 (post 2nd debate):

06/27 - 06/28

The methodologies between both polls were completely different. 538's poll was more rigorous in measuring the debates' tangible effects on voters opinions, since the respondents were the same before and after the debates.

And here's Morning Consult's methodology for comparison:

 

[Rockets]

I would like a Harris- Buttigieg ticket. How do you think black voters would react to that? would they turn off or would come out to vote? And is there a candidate that would make the black voters enthusiastic?

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As a black man I can tell you I and many others I know would not like that ticket. Harris is pretty much infamous now for locking up black people and Buttigieg was saying All Lives Matter back in 2015 and is dealing with a tragedy in his state of a cop killing a black man very poorly.

 

[Bliman]

As a black man I can tell you I and many others I know would not like that ticket. Harris is pretty much infamous now for locking up black people and Buttigieg was saying All Lives Matter back in 2015 and is dealing with a tragedy in his state of a cop killing a black man very poorly.

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But who would you make feel great to vote for?

 

[Rockets]

But who would you make feel great to vote for?

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Bernie. But if Warrens the nominee I'd be more than glad to vote and actively support her. Tim Ryan, Tulsi, Biden, and Kamala are all non-starters for me. I'm mixed on the rest of the candidates

 

[Bliman]

Bernie. But if Warrens the nominee I'd be more than glad to vote and actively support her. Tim Ryan, Tulsi, Biden, and Kamala are all non-starters for me. I'm mixed on the rest of the candidates

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Thank you.