2020 Presidential Democratic Primary Debates 3&4 |OT| July 30-31, 2019

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samoyed

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Oct 26, 2017
9,003
Some napkin theory.

If Biden drops out, Bernie's lead is cemented over Warren because the "old white guy can beat Trump" voters will go to Bernie.

If Warren drops out, her supporters will probably go to Bernie or Buttigieg/the rest. If the lower tiers also drop out it just might put Bernie over the edge over Biden.

If Bernie drops out, I feel like his support would split between Biden and Warren and I don't think Warren can take it over Biden then.
 

Deleted member 49804

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Nov 21, 2018
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none of the top candidates are dropping out now. they would be dumb to hence any discussion about one of them dropping out is just absolutely worthless

there are more debates to be had and you can bet your ass unless something drastically changes biden, bernie, warren, and harris are going to be in the race for the first primary states
The fist "top candidate" dropping out at this point would probably be Beto.
Booker and Castro can still hope for an upticks, but Beto just fell from grace and I don't see any way back up.

also can everyone please take a moment to appreciate that we have two candidates like bernie and warren polling where they are, having the debate presence that they have had, and basically dictating the primary narrative in regards to the debate around policy
No, absolut no my policies and ideology ;)
 

jviggy43

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Oct 28, 2017
13,439
Let’s avoid putting words in the mouths of others. You know neither my gender self identification nor my sexuality nor my relationship to activism with regards to disenfranchised people. Have a nice night.


Hey, can you stop misusing the term bullying? thanks.
Your own gender and identification doesn't really have a lot to do with what that poster brought up regarding your arguments tho
 

JABEE

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Oct 25, 2017
5,340
I think Bernie is in a really good spot and has been hitting all the right notes for the last few weeks.
 

jviggy43

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Oct 28, 2017
13,439
First fully after debate poll:





For the record, Biden recovered his numbers entirely from last months debate. There was a dip, for about two weeks, before people flocked back to him. Harris was not "destroyed" by Gabbard in the polls, Bernie and Warren's zingers didn't change anyone's minds. On a side note, the eight in the graph are the only ones who qualify for the next debate atm.
Bernie in second, Warren rising, and Harris falling are all positive signs. Now if Biden would just drop out that would be great.
 

brainchild

GameXplain
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Nov 25, 2017
7,077
Minnesota
Warren dropping out would give a bigger bump to Harris than Bernie.
Actually, it's not that clear cut. Second choice candidate preferences could be rendered insignificant if the first choice candidate drops out to join the ticket of (or endorsed) a candidate who isn't second choice. As an example, if Warren started an early VP run with Sanders, it's unlikely that all or even most of her supporters would flock to Harris. Of course, this is all theoretical, but the point is that it's really too early to know what would happen (for any of the candidates).
 

Kyra

The Eggplant Queen
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Oct 25, 2017
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Biden isnt dropping out.. someone has to take him down. I feel Bernie and Warren may have to team up to do this. And a simple debate performance may not be enough.
 

Melkr_

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Oct 25, 2017
1,945
No it's August polling so obvious we know now that Sanders is going to poll better than Warren and Kamala when it matters, so they both need to drop out now so BIden can be defeated!

I mean Bernie is my second choice, but come on now. If everybody drops out Bernie will win!
I mean what other options do you have if you don’t want Biden to win?

If Bernie drops his voters will go to Biden first then someone else. The demos are taking form and Iowa is becoming predictable.

The only one that can win over Biden is Bernie.
 

digit_zero

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Oct 27, 2017
492
Will Warren dropout though? Bernie is firmly in second place and MANY polls put him at double of her. And she has had two spectacular debates, yet it seems she has a very firm ceiling of 15% or 9% depending on the poll.
Bernie / Warren really aren't separated by much looking at the polls at aggregate - she also has a few polls above 15% within the past month or so. I don't see any reason Warren can't overtake him given the base he started with vs Warren building a national coalition from the ground up.

 

Seeya

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Oct 27, 2017
6,281
Warren isn’t dropping out and Bernie fans who hope for one of the few viable women candidates to drop out....isn’t the best look.
There’s plenty of calls to drop out all around to ‘clear the way’ for the other so much so that it’s a farce to say it’s predominantly that the calls are singing any one of them out. Singling out one side, when each of the two candidates are (relatively speaking) incredibly close personally professionally and ideologically speaking.... isn’t the best look, and says more about the person saying it than it does either candidate. Looks are optics and not substance, so far Sanders is the solid second choice candidate that the ‘anyone but Biden’ vote can Center around, though that can change and we have a long way to go.

This whole ‘X leading candidate should drop out NOW’ isn’t limited to Warren/Bernie either.

Some napkin theory.

If Biden drops out, Bernie's lead is cemented over Warren because the "old white guy can beat Trump" voters will go to Bernie.

If Warren drops out, her supporters will probably go to Bernie or Buttigieg/the rest. If the lower tiers also drop out it just might put Bernie over the edge over Biden.

If Bernie drops out, I feel like his support would split between Biden and Warren and I don't think Warren can take it over Biden then.
As it stands now Bernie is in a good position but Biden IS going to be a tough obstacle, even for the hypothetical Warren Sanders power play. What I’m more concerned/considerate of is where all of the lesser than Candidates votes metastasize.
 
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Melkr_

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Oct 25, 2017
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Bernie / Warren really aren't separated by much looking at the polls at aggregate - she also has a few polls above 15% within the past month or so. I don't see any reason Warren can't overtake him given the base he started with vs Warren building a national coalition from the ground up.

She literally just had one sketchy poll by YouGov (coastal bias) at 20%. The only poll keeping her in that average too. RCP are not including many polls were Bernie doubles Liz.
 

digit_zero

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Oct 27, 2017
492
She literally just had one sketchy poll by YouGov (coastal bias) at 20%. The only poll keeping her in that average too. RCP are not including many polls were Bernie doubles Liz.
She also has a couple Economist polls at 18 and a NBC poll at 19 within the past month but if you want to pretend they don’t exist, ok I guess? I’m not saying her support is that high, but there are plenty of indicators she is a real contender to Bernie/Biden.

Picking and choosing polls to define your desired narrative is a tired shtick
 

shinra-bansho

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Oct 25, 2017
2,142
Lol many polls don't put Sanders way ahead of Warren. It's basically just the same pollster over and over (Morning Consult).
 

Seeya

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Oct 27, 2017
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Lol many polls don't put Sanders way ahead of Warren. It's basically just the same pollster over and over (Morning Consult).
In terms of statistical significance this simply isn’t true. I would be thrilled with Warren getting the nom but Sanders is ‘way ahead’ or significantly simply ahead, or heck tied even, in many more polls than not.

And that’s not to say that she isn’t a legitimate challenger, she absolutely is.
 
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Minilla

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Oct 27, 2017
2,141
Tokyo
First fully after debate poll:





For the record, Biden recovered his numbers entirely from last months debate. There was a dip, for about two weeks, before people flocked back to him. Harris was not "destroyed" by Gabbard in the polls, Bernie and Warren's zingers didn't change anyone's minds. On a side note, the eight in the graph are the only ones who qualify for the next debate atm.
As an outsider not from the US who just follows the news a little , I watched the highlights of these debates recently and I don't really understand how the fuck Biden is that high. Hes unintelligible half the time he speaks and nothing much he says makes sense. Is it just me??

I like Sanders and Warrens policies more, but lean more towards Warren as the candidate who to me, has impressed me the most.

Anyones better than Trump I suppose though
 

Ronin0510

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Oct 27, 2017
299
I am not well versed in politics but why does Biden still have such a strong lead? It's kinda disparaging...
 

Kirblar

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Oct 25, 2017
24,928
I am not well versed in politics but why does Biden still have such a strong lead? It's kinda disparaging...
Poll movement really won't start to happen significantly till after this year's elections. (barring like, someone being outted a la John Edwards as having a love child) Only the hardcore are paying much attention.
 

Pwnz

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Oct 28, 2017
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if Biden holds after the harassment gate and his message of expanding Obama care is preferable to Medicare for all, then really it's a debate about ideas and who the VP will be.

But then again let's wait till January to call winners.
 

Mona

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Oct 30, 2017
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As an outsider not from the US who just follows the news a little , I watched the highlights of these debates recently and I don't really understand how the fuck Biden is that high. Hes unintelligible half the time he speaks and nothing much he says makes sense. Is it just me??
its all name recognition

thats the only explanation im willing to accept
 

Pwnz

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Oct 28, 2017
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As an outsider not from the US who just follows the news a little , I watched the highlights of these debates recently and I don't really understand how the fuck Biden is that high. Hes unintelligible half the time he speaks and nothing much he says makes sense. Is it just me??

I like Sanders and Warrens policies more, but lean more towards Warren as the candidate who to me, has impressed me the most.

Anyones better than Trump I suppose though
He represents Obama's legacy, return to sanity, and something that Era may not match is how much Biden's policies fall in line with mainstream Democrats and independents.
 

Jon Carter

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Oct 27, 2017
3,204
Someone explain to me how Andrew Yang is so close to Beto and Cory. Is he popular somewhere due to something?
 

sphagnum

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Oct 25, 2017
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I am not well versed in politics but why does Biden still have such a strong lead? It's kinda disparaging...
The actual votes don't start for another half a year. At this point, the majority aren't paying too much attention, so Biden benefits by virtue of name recognition/association with Obama and a vague sense that he can beat Trump.

Often there's a certain candidate who is presented as "inevitable", but if they hit a stumbling block early on it brings down their campaign since the illusion of invulnerability is pierced. Once people know that the candidate is not a lock, support begins to evaporate. Take for example Hillary in 2008, who was supposed to be guaranteed until Obama won Iowa.
 

shinra-bansho

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Oct 25, 2017
2,142
I don't think so. Pretty sure most of the top tier candidates have almost or at least pretty darn close to universal name recognition at this point.
They don't. Only Biden and Sanders do.

Biden has 1) Obama-shield, 2) being a white man, 3) name recognition, and 4) being seen as electable, which is really just 2+3 anyway.
 

BADMAN

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
1,450
They don't. Only Biden and Sanders do.

Biden has 1) Obama-shield, 2) being a white man, 3) name recognition, and 4) being seen as electable, which is really just 2+3 anyway.
Yeah and a lot of voters really want to wave a magic wand to go back in time to the Obama years. Biden is selling them that fantasy as the main part of his platform.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,281
Yeah and a lot of voters really want to wave a magic wand to go back in time to the Obama years. Biden is selling them that fantasy as the main part of his platform.
Once the field is thinned through the decisions of the voters, whomever it is that we end up pushing against Biden needs to directly expose him for what he is : An even more conservative politician from an enternally safe state, that was chosen by Obama for the purpose of appeasing racists. Simply bringing up a damning quote or two is not enough, it’s numbing gotcha politics, you need to DEFINE the opposition by making the case, not suggesting it. You need to present a pattern of behaviour and pathology.
 
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Ronin0510

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Oct 27, 2017
299
Do yall think the debates will ever be less of a show and more actual debating? I hope all the future debates aren't locked to CNN.
 

KidAAlbum

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Nov 18, 2017
1,018
Doesn't that speak badly of those who like to pretend the Obama presidency was amazing? Because there is this defense of his time in office, Biden gets to ride off his coattails. If the Obama presidency wasn't seen as rosy, Biden would have no chance. That's not to say that he was just as bad as Bush or Trump, just to say that the reputation of his time in office looks so much better when contrasted by the buffoons Bush and Trump.
 

Rupetta

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Oct 27, 2017
746
Boston/Helsinki
I don't think so. Pretty sure most of the top tier candidates have almost or at least pretty darn close to universal name recognition at this point.
Just as an example: The new Harris poll (july 31-Aug 1) had name recognition through “ever heard of” % as follows (all registered voters): Sanders 88, Biden 87, Warren 77, Harris 72, O’Rourke 62, Buttigieg 56.

For reference pres’s Trump and Obama sit at 95%, and freshman rep Ocasio-Cortez at 70%..

The last Yougov poll had among registered democrats “don’t know” (enough to have an opinion) as %, Biden 7%, Sanders 8%, Warren 14%, Harris 18%, Buttigieg 22%.

Also: The Harris poll had 53% responding “have not watched any of the debates”...
 
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