-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
2020 Presidential Democratic Primary Debates 3&4 |OT| July 30-31, 2019
- Thread starter SweetNicole
- Start date
- Status
Some napkin theory.
If Biden drops out, Bernie's lead is cemented over Warren because the "old white guy can beat Trump" voters will go to Bernie.
If Warren drops out, her supporters will probably go to Bernie or Buttigieg/the rest. If the lower tiers also drop out it just might put Bernie over the edge over Biden.
If Bernie drops out, I feel like his support would split between Biden and Warren and I don't think Warren can take it over Biden then.
If Biden drops out, Bernie's lead is cemented over Warren because the "old white guy can beat Trump" voters will go to Bernie.
If Warren drops out, her supporters will probably go to Bernie or Buttigieg/the rest. If the lower tiers also drop out it just might put Bernie over the edge over Biden.
If Bernie drops out, I feel like his support would split between Biden and Warren and I don't think Warren can take it over Biden then.
The fist "top candidate" dropping out at this point would probably be Beto.
Booker and Castro can still hope for an upticks, but Beto just fell from grace and I don't see any way back up.
No, absolut no my policies and ideology ;)
Your own gender and identification doesn't really have a lot to do with what that poster brought up regarding your arguments tho
Bernie in second, Warren rising, and Harris falling are all positive signs. Now if Biden would just drop out that would be great.First fully after debate poll:
https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/02/detroit-debates-deliver-meager-returns-for-bidens-challengers/
For the record, Biden recovered his numbers entirely from last months debate. There was a dip, for about two weeks, before people flocked back to him. Harris was not "destroyed" by Gabbard in the polls, Bernie and Warren's zingers didn't change anyone's minds. On a side note, the eight in the graph are the only ones who qualify for the next debate atm.
Actually, it's not that clear cut. Second choice candidate preferences could be rendered insignificant if the first choice candidate drops out to join the ticket of (or endorsed) a candidate who isn't second choice. As an example, if Warren started an early VP run with Sanders, it's unlikely that all or even most of her supporters would flock to Harris. Of course, this is all theoretical, but the point is that it's really too early to know what would happen (for any of the candidates).
Warren isn't dropping out and Bernie fans who hope for one of the few viable women candidates to drop out....isn't the best look.
Biden isnt dropping out.. someone has to take him down. I feel Bernie and Warren may have to team up to do this. And a simple debate performance may not be enough.
I mean what other options do you have if you don't want Biden to win?
If Bernie drops his voters will go to Biden first then someone else. The demos are taking form and Iowa is becoming predictable.
The only one that can win over Biden is Bernie.
Bernie / Warren really aren't separated by much looking at the polls at aggregate - she also has a few polls above 15% within the past month or so. I don't see any reason Warren can't overtake him given the base he started with vs Warren building a national coalition from the ground up.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
People are speaking in hypotheticals because that's what nerdy political communities do. I don't think anyone here is seriously calling for Warren to drop out right now.
There's plenty of calls to drop out all around to 'clear the way' for the other so much so that it's a farce to say it's predominantly that the calls are singing any one of them out. Singling out one side, when each of the two candidates are (relatively speaking) incredibly close personally professionally and ideologically speaking.... isn't the best look, and says more about the person saying it than it does either candidate. Looks are optics and not substance, so far Sanders is the solid second choice candidate that the 'anyone but Biden' vote can Center around, though that can change and we have a long way to go.
This whole 'X leading candidate should drop out NOW' isn't limited to Warren/Bernie either.
As it stands now Bernie is in a good position but Biden IS going to be a tough obstacle, even for the hypothetical Warren Sanders power play. What I'm more concerned/considerate of is where all of the lesser than Candidates votes metastasize.
Last edited:
Bernie / Warren really aren't separated by much looking at the polls at aggregate - she also has a few polls above 15% within the past month or so. I don't see any reason Warren can't overtake him given the base he started with vs Warren building a national coalition from the ground up.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominationwww.realclearpolitics.com
She literally just had one sketchy poll by YouGov (coastal bias) at 20%. The only poll keeping her in that average too. RCP are not including many polls were Bernie doubles Liz.
She also has a couple Economist polls at 18 and a NBC poll at 19 within the past month but if you want to pretend they don't exist, ok I guess? I'm not saying her support is that high, but there are plenty of indicators she is a real contender to Bernie/Biden.
Picking and choosing polls to define your desired narrative is a tired shtick
Lol many polls don't put Sanders way ahead of Warren. It's basically just the same pollster over and over (Morning Consult).
In terms of statistical significance this simply isn't true. I would be thrilled with Warren getting the nom but Sanders is 'way ahead' or significantly simply ahead, or heck tied even, in many more polls than not.
And that's not to say that she isn't a legitimate challenger, she absolutely is.
Last edited:
First fully after debate poll:
https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/02/detroit-debates-deliver-meager-returns-for-bidens-challengers/
For the record, Biden recovered his numbers entirely from last months debate. There was a dip, for about two weeks, before people flocked back to him. Harris was not "destroyed" by Gabbard in the polls, Bernie and Warren's zingers didn't change anyone's minds. On a side note, the eight in the graph are the only ones who qualify for the next debate atm.
As an outsider not from the US who just follows the news a little , I watched the highlights of these debates recently and I don't really understand how the fuck Biden is that high. Hes unintelligible half the time he speaks and nothing much he says makes sense. Is it just me??
I like Sanders and Warrens policies more, but lean more towards Warren as the candidate who to me, has impressed me the most.
Anyones better than Trump I suppose though
Poll movement really won't start to happen significantly till after this year's elections. (barring like, someone being outted a la John Edwards as having a love child) Only the hardcore are paying much attention.
its all name recognition
thats the only explanation im willing to accept
Biden is gonna stay at around 30% till Iowa. Hopefully the polls fucked up the voter screens.
He represents Obama's legacy, return to sanity, and something that Era may not match is how much Biden's policies fall in line with mainstream Democrats and independents.
Someone explain to me how Andrew Yang is so close to Beto and Cory. Is he popular somewhere due to something?
I feel like this is more about beto and cory being so close to yang
dude's at like < 2%
Ehh, I feel like it should be explain to me how Booker is so close to Beto and Yang. The latter two have had a bigger online following for a little longer.
The actual votes don't start for another half a year. At this point, the majority aren't paying too much attention, so Biden benefits by virtue of name recognition/association with Obama and a vague sense that he can beat Trump.
Often there's a certain candidate who is presented as "inevitable", but if they hit a stumbling block early on it brings down their campaign since the illusion of invulnerability is pierced. Once people know that the candidate is not a lock, support begins to evaporate. Take for example Hillary in 2008, who was supposed to be guaranteed until Obama won Iowa.
I don't think so. Pretty sure most of the top tier candidates have almost or at least pretty darn close to universal name recognition at this point.
i consider biden being our VP for 8 years a part of name recognition, i think thats part of it
name recognition/familiarity is what i was going for
Sure, but if you're thinking that Biden is number one right now only because of name recognition, then that simply isn't the case.
They don't. Only Biden and Sanders do.
Biden has 1) Obama-shield, 2) being a white man, 3) name recognition, and 4) being seen as electable, which is really just 2+3 anyway.
Yeah and a lot of voters really want to wave a magic wand to go back in time to the Obama years. Biden is selling them that fantasy as the main part of his platform.
Once the field is thinned through the decisions of the voters, whomever it is that we end up pushing against Biden needs to directly expose him for what he is : An even more conservative politician from an enternally safe state, that was chosen by Obama for the purpose of appeasing racists. Simply bringing up a damning quote or two is not enough, it's numbing gotcha politics, you need to DEFINE the opposition by making the case, not suggesting it. You need to present a pattern of behaviour and pathology.
Last edited:
About a quarter of people don't know who Harris is, or know enough to say they've got a favourable or unfavorable opinion. About a fifth for Warren. I wouldn't really call that universal compared to the 95% the two men have.
Doesn't that speak badly of those who like to pretend the Obama presidency was amazing? Because there is this defense of his time in office, Biden gets to ride off his coattails. If the Obama presidency wasn't seen as rosy, Biden would have no chance. That's not to say that he was just as bad as Bush or Trump, just to say that the reputation of his time in office looks so much better when contrasted by the buffoons Bush and Trump.
Just as an example: The new Harris poll (july 31-Aug 1) had name recognition through "ever heard of" % as follows (all registered voters): Sanders 88, Biden 87, Warren 77, Harris 72, O'Rourke 62, Buttigieg 56.
For reference pres's Trump and Obama sit at 95%, and freshman rep Ocasio-Cortez at 70%..
The last Yougov poll had among registered democrats "don't know" (enough to have an opinion) as %, Biden 7%, Sanders 8%, Warren 14%, Harris 18%, Buttigieg 22%.
Also: The Harris poll had 53% responding "have not watched any of the debates"...
Last edited:
- Status