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Spaghetti

Member
Dec 2, 2017
2,740
In a headline that will surprise literally fucking nobody: "Chuka Umunna wants 'biggest role' in new Independent Group"

Oh and I dunno if this got picked up here, but: "Labour reports former MP Joan Ryan over alleged data breach"

I would not be hugely surprised, because she's got a history of being dodgy as fuck. I know this load of independents are probably short on friends right now, but I wonder at what point they start looking at who they're getting into bed with. Suppose it doesn't really matter when you've got someone as oily as Chuka vying to lead it, though.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,261
In a headline that will surprise literally fucking nobody: "Chuka Umunna wants 'biggest role' in new Independent Group"

Oh and I dunno if this got picked up here, but: "Labour reports former MP Joan Ryan over alleged data breach"

I would not be hugely surprised, because she's got a history of being dodgy as fuck. I know this load of independents are probably short on friends right now, but I wonder at what point they start looking at who they're getting into bed with. Suppose it doesn't really matter when you've got someone as oily as Chuka vying to lead it, though.

That headline got a good hearty laugh out of me.

Re: Joan's data breach, she denied it but it will be easy to trace if she did. I'm glad the gaffes are being spread between them.
 

Deleted member 888

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,361


Hey everyone I heard you like some strong and stable leadership along with your new independent "party".

The state of the UK.
 

FrakEarth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,274
Liverpool, UK
I think it's a bit off for the guardian to say they are on par with the Libdem's, nobody has voted for the independent group yet.

I know they mean number of MPs, it's probably Chuka's smug face in the picture that made it annoying.

It's understandably annoying, because its a mis-representation of the reality. The group's popularity as a whole across the country is ridiculous levels of low to not-arsed. And thanks to FPTP they'd face an uphill struggle to gain any seats.

We can't know because none of them have the courage to stand in a by-election, but I'm fairly confident they're going to be horribly embarrassed at the next general election. Assuming they last that long. I'd vote Green before I voted TIG... the lib-dems will be comfortably ahead of them when all is said and done.
 

SMD

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,341

Okay, since you really need this spelling out then here we go.

UK politics is not in any shape or form a level playing field. You do not go in front of the electorate with your manifesto and policies and set out your stall from zero. There are inherent biases all over the shop but let's go with the absolute basic - some people will vote Conservative no matter what, some will vote Labour no matter what. So every Tory and Labour leader will have an absolute floor and an absolute ceiling.

The nature of the UK is that the Tory party, at this moment in time, have a very high floor. So high in fact that a turd in a blue rosette stands a chance of election. The Labour party have a fairly low ceiling. This has been the case since 2010 but for the sake of explaining this to you, let's stick to Corbyn.

Theresa May's popularity can be seen quite clearly by how she performed during the election campaign.

Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png


The way she tanked is a great example of what happens when the stabilisers (namely the press) come off. Given that we know that many people within the Labour party were working actively against Corbyn during the election and fully expected the kind of result that would give their own political careers a push
5a136159140000891d50e7dc.gif
and that Theresa May basically had the entire establishment willing her on to win a sizeable majority to reshape the UK, I think it speaks volumes that Corbyn managed to shoot up, practically against the ceiling in 2017 while May dropped so hard that she almost did worse than a turd in a blue rosette.

If anyone legitimately thought she was more popular than Corbyn, they would've called an election last year. The fact that they spend so much time warning about how disastrous a Corbyn government would be tells you that even the Tories believe that another election campaign would see them off.

If you want to cling to absolute figures now and completely remove any and all context, go right ahead but I can't be arsed replying to you any more. I just imagine you like Stephen Kinnock now.
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
2,108
London
Okay, since you really need this spelling out then here we go.

UK politics is not in any shape or form a level playing field. You do not go in front of the electorate with your manifesto and policies and set out your stall from zero. There are inherent biases all over the shop but let's go with the absolute basic - some people will vote Conservative no matter what, some will vote Labour no matter what. So every Tory and Labour leader will have an absolute floor and an absolute ceiling.

The nature of the UK is that the Tory party, at this moment in time, have a very high floor. So high in fact that a turd in a blue rosette stands a chance of election. The Labour party have a fairly low ceiling. This has been the case since 2010 but for the sake of explaining this to you, let's stick to Corbyn.

Theresa May's popularity can be seen quite clearly by how she performed during the election campaign.

Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png


The way she tanked is a great example of what happens when the stabilisers (namely the press) come off. Given that we know that many people within the Labour party were working actively against Corbyn during the election and fully expected the kind of result that would give their own political careers a push
5a136159140000891d50e7dc.gif
and that Theresa May basically had the entire establishment willing her on to win a sizeable majority to reshape the UK, I think it speaks volumes that Corbyn managed to shoot up, practically against the ceiling in 2017 while May dropped so hard that she almost did worse than a turd in a blue rosette.

If anyone legitimately thought she was more popular than Corbyn, they would've called an election last year. The fact that they spend so much time warning about how disastrous a Corbyn government would be tells you that even the Tories believe that another election campaign would see them off.

If you want to cling to absolute figures now and completely remove any and all context, go right ahead but I can't be arsed replying to you any more. I just imagine you like Stephen Kinnock now.
Theresa May is currently as popular as a pile of cowshit. She's not seen as competent either. Yet somehow, she's still rated higher by the population in both these metrics than Corbyn, now, today. This is a fact, and trying to muddy the waters by talking about the election results, that Labour still got a lower vote share in even if they did much better than anyone initially expected, and as if there wasn't a multitude of other reasons for that beyond just the two leaders involved, is pretty dishonest and transparently mindless tribalism.

It literally doesn't matter that the Tories fear another election. It doesn't matter that it's not a level playing field. All polls that ask the actual question at hand say if she's herpes and very bad, he's still syphilis and worse. Fact.
 

Noodle

Banned
Aug 22, 2018
3,427
Theresa May's popularity can be seen quite clearly by how she performed during the election campaign.

Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png

A graph showing the Tories above Labour?

Let me show you what actual stats look like:

wiki.jpg


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leade...ral_election#Preferred_Prime_Minister_polling

And those are leadership popularity polls rather than the overall party poll you used. You keep complaining about the press, party traitors, and the establishment giving May a pass, but the end result is still May being viewed as more popular than the public, even if you think it's popularity unfairly earned. Even if we accepted your warped interpretation, you can't pretend to guess how much the offset would be - meaning your claim of surety of Corbyn being more popular than May is still BS even under your rigged conditions.

The fact that you then claim we have to discount that Tories have more voters supporting them to try and make your point accurate is laughable . I'm sorry you couldn't understand how polling works.
 

FrakEarth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,274
Liverpool, UK
One thing I'm sure is true though is that the polling would change in the event of a general election campaign. Those figures all follow the 2017 general election, Corbyn's polling figures were not great prior to the calling of that election - increased media exposure during purdah, and surrounding the announcement of manifesto pledges and debates absolutely elevated Corbyn and Labour's figures. In a similar situation, the same would likely be true - as this government's record has only worsened since then. The media are failing the country in holding a torch to the Conservatives feet, but in the event of a general election - it will be as though a megaphone has been given to every single one of their opponents. Their record the last 2 years alone is simply dreadful, and they've actually had nearly 10 years of rule. Of course, Corbyn might suffer a battering in an election campaign for his approach to Brexit, but he will make the argument that he spoke up for a different kind of deal and wanted to represent the wishes of Labour voters (which internal polling reportedly indicates massive division on, still).

The likelihood at the moment is that May is kicking the can down the road and into the abyss, to the point we're going to get an extension or a no-deal. These TIG MPs, squatting in safe-Labour seats until they can be removed - are going to try to prevent any further votes of no confidence in the government, so they will limp on - zombie like - until the deed is done and the consequences start to hit home. Lets talk about popularity then.
 

DavidDesu

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
5,718
Glasgow, Scotland
The Society's neo-conservative, pro-Saudi leadership position sits well with lots of Tories, but can also fit at least some of the new Independent Group of MPs. Mike Gapes has been on a number of Saudi-funded trips to the Kingdom. After an £8,700 trip to Saudi funded by the regime last year, Gapes praised the "rapid economic and societal change" he saw in "the modern city of Riyadh including its shopping malls, where there are many UK retailers, and its parks and museums".

It's really depressing how easily and in plain sight our democratically elected leaders seem able to be bought and paid for by nefarious outside interests working directly against the people of the UK. This party was founded on disingenuous arguments for the most part and their intentions are to basically scupper any sort of shift left in the UK. Most of those involved are hollow politicians that shift wherever the money points them. Fuck this party and shame on those that can't see how obvious the whole thing is.
 

lemonhat

Member
Dec 6, 2018
218
Only polls I trust these days are John Curtice. They've failed us 3 or 4 times in a row.

Yeah that yougov poll is just laughable. 18% for the independent funny tinge idiots? Lol. There's only currently 11 out of 650 constituencies where anyone can actually vote for them so for the vast majority of the electorate they're not an option anyway. And they're almost certainly never going to be able to field that many candidates in a prospective general election - standing for absolutely nothing really won't get them very far once the media honeymoon is over.
 

SMD

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,341
Yeah that yougov poll is just laughable. 18% for the independent funny tinge idiots? Lol. There's only currently 11 out of 650 constituencies where anyone can actually vote for them so for the vast majority of the electorate they're not an option anyway. And they're almost certainly never going to be able to field that many candidates in a prospective general election - standing for absolutely nothing really won't get them very far once the media honeymoon is over.

Are you doubting that these people are in the right constituencies and have studied their very detailed manifesto even though they're all independent?
 

Deleted member 21431

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
596
Yeah that yougov poll is just laughable. 18% for the independent funny tinge idiots? Lol. There's only currently 11 out of 650 constituencies where anyone can actually vote for them so for the vast majority of the electorate they're not an option anyway. And they're almost certainly never going to be able to field that many candidates in a prospective general election - standing for absolutely nothing really won't get them very far once the media honeymoon is over.
I see this as a sign that there is a sizable part of the electorate that doesn't like Labour or the Tories and want to vote for another party that sits somewhere inbetween the two. Until TIG come out with policies though we won't get to see the true picture of their level of support.
 

IDreamOfHime

Member
Oct 27, 2017
14,424
Soubry and Berger currently explaining to political masterminds Philip and Holly about how they are responsible for the potential change in Brexit direction...
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
2,108
London
It enrages me that the TIG are given such a soft ride about the emptiness of their "change politics". They don't remotely stand for change politics, they stand for "let's get back to normal before Brexit and that mean Jeremy Corbyn moved Labour to the left", ignoring entirely that this normal didn't work well for the majority of people. I encourage everyone to read this article from Simon Wren-Lewis, which lays this out exceptionally well.

We Need A Party That's Tough On The Causes Of Brexit

Some excerpts:
I have been all my life a macroeconomist, and for the last twenty odd years an academic. That gave me a perspective on 2010 austerity and the 2015 election which was largely absent from the popular debate. As a result, I can see that Brexit was not an isolated event, the result of one bad decision by Cameron, but part of a pattern suggesting deep problems with how UK politics works.

My point in making these parallels is that evidence based policy making on major issues didn't end with Brexit, but six years earlier with austerity. In both cases these are policies that create great harm to all, and acute harm to many. I calculate austerity cost the average household £10,000, and NEF using similar methods get an even larger figure. No government since the war, including those of Thatcher, has embarked on prolonged austerity during an economic recovery, and so it is no surprise we had the weakest recovery for centuries.

Brexit is therefore not the exception in a period of otherwise normal government. If you ask why Brexit happened, it was not that David Cameron made one mistake in an otherwise capable period as Prime Minister. There is evidence that austerity encouraged the growth of UKIP and by implication the Brexit vote. I remember often hearing people in areas that are described as 'left behind' dismissing the economic impact of Brexit by saying things could not possibly get worse than they are now.

Although the Independent Group (IG) may have a more attractive policy on Brexit, and they will talk the talk on a broken politics, the group is made up of politicians who either believe their government did the right thing over austerity, or who in opposition urged accepting Osborne's policy. Deficit obsession is damaging to the economy, but it also shuts the gate to so much else that needs to be done. It means the IG will be unable to undertake the far reaching and radical industrial policy that is needed to tackle the huge regional inequalities within the UK, and help those left behind that voted for Brexit. It means no Green New Deal. Although so far policy light, they have pledged to keep our current 'free media', which will mean they would do nothing to mend much of our dysfunctional press that acts as a propaganda vehicle for their owners, or a broadcast media that balances truth with lies and is largely expert free.
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
1,134


One thing I'm sure we can all agree on is that neither May or Corbyn will ever be able to match the incredible popularity and charisma of Don't Know.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
39% for May what the fuck. How is Don't Know not beating her into the ground? Should be 60%+ to their 20/20

It's mostly a pity vote for the poor tory dealing with the mess created by another one, she is also fucking useless beyond brexit, which I hope bites her party big time when this distraction passes.
 

Spaghetti

Member
Dec 2, 2017
2,740
The Islamaphobia inside the Conservative party has been swept under the rug for ages and ages.

Not to get Labour off the hook for the antisemitism problem, but isn't Conservative Islamaphobia statistically more prevalent and high profile?
 

JonnyDBrit

God and Anime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,016
It's mostly a pity vote for the poor tory dealing with the mess created by another one, she is also fucking useless beyond brexit, which I hope bites her party big time when this distraction passes.

Otherwise, she's a known quantity that isn't being smeared by the rags. Indeed, if you're of a given alignment, you might think she's not handled Brexit very well but is otherwise not a terrible domestic leader (if because Brexit news has kinda pushed out any other controversies that would see other PMs lose their place). Throw in the continuing stink of Labour's supposed track record on the economy (vs the Tories' actual reality), and a good chunk of the country are willingly blind enough to give her the benefit of the doubt vs Corbyn.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,261
Looking forward to those Obama style Don't Know posters.

The Islamaphobia inside the Conservative party has been swept under the rug for ages and ages.

Not to get Labour off the hook for the antisemitism problem, but isn't Conservative Islamaphobia statistically more prevalent and high profile?

Yes. But because the vast majority of Tories are racist cunts it tends to go under the radar because other Tories don't complain about it - don't shit where you eat and tbh most of them wouldn't even register the racism. Which is where Labour diverges (i.e. not all of them are shits)