I hope Joker doesn't win BP. I found the movie to be just an incredibly ugly yawn that was just a redundant King of Comedy, and the fact that WB and some critics are trying to pivot the movie as an empathetic look at people who struggle with mental illness is revolting. The movie itself glorifies a murderer and scumbag, who at the end of the film, ultimately learns nothing about his behavior and is celebrated for it.
It's an incredibly ugly movie about inept, frustrated white male rage, but given that the Oscars prefers films that are popular and that celebrates the tastes of it largely white and conservative voting board, it seems like a shoe-in to win.
I still hope Parasite can swoop in for the last win, but I won't bet on it. It's not a "regular movie" as someone on the voting board said.