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92nd Oscar Nominees

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,436
Congrats to John Williams on his 52nd Oscar nomination
Second highest in history and certainly going to stay that way, he hasn't got another seven nominations in him at his age to match Walt Disney, and anyone else remotely close in that number of noms (in the 30s or 40s) is long dead, from the earlier times when composers or designers would be nominated every year sometimes for multiple films.

I don't think there will ever be another like him, regularly nominated in every decade since the 60s. Film careers just don't work like that anymore.
 

Kain

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
2,221
I can see criticisms of Marriage Story on the basis of unexamined privilege. They call it out here and there (Alan Alda talking about the laws seeming unfair, but being there to protect single mothers without their advantages; the judge calling out their "means"). You can say it's not about money but the film intentionally drags the material concerns into it, with grant money and buying houses and residuals and all that.

It's emotionally resonant despite that, but it's definitely one of those pieces of media where it's like - these people are rich as fuck but that's the normal environment of the people making it, so it's not really addressed.
On that note, I just can't feel bad for rich people, I really can't, so that made me enjoy the movie less.
 

shintoki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,859
That token Harriett nom. Y'all could have picked Awkwafina or Lupita without anyone being the wiser. Instead we're sitting on two noms from Bombshell's ass, that no one saw.

Parasite is by leagues the best movie nominated and its not even a close discussion. Once Upon will most likely win since the film is a sloppy blowjob to Hollywood. But I could see 1917 winning as well for an upset.

What I think and want to see win is Parasite, but the shit show for Todd Phillips winning best director would be something else.

From the Academy Award Winning Director.

 

Primal Sage

Member
Nov 27, 2017
785
These two are a bit strange:

Brad Pitt and Tom Hanks for best supporting actor? I’ve seen Once Upon... and Pitt is just as much the main character as Di Caprio. I haven’t seen Neighborhood but how is Hanks not the main character in a movie about Mister Rogers where he plays Mister Rogers?

What’s next, Harrison Ford gets a supporting actor nomination for Indiana Jones?
 

cj_iwakura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,952
Coral Springs, FL
That token Harriett nom. Y'all could have picked Awkwafina or Lupita without anyone being the wiser. Instead we're sitting on two noms from Bombshell's ass, that no one saw.

Parasite is by leagues the best movie nominated and its not even a close discussion. Once Upon will most likely win since the film is a sloppy blowjob to Hollywood. But I could see 1917 winning as well for an upset.

What I think and want to see win is Parasite, but the shit show for Todd Phillips winning best director would be something else.

From the Academy Award Winning Director.

It's easy to cherry pick any director's checkered history, but Joker was a genuinely well made film.
 
These two are a bit strange:

Brad Pitt and Tom Hanks for best supporting actor? I’ve seen Once Upon... and Pitt is just as much the main character as Di Caprio. I haven’t seen Neighborhood but how is Hanks not the main character in a movie about Mister Rogers where he plays Mister Rogers?

What’s next, Harrison Ford gets a supporting actor nomination for Indiana Jones?
Despite having top billing since he's, you know, Tom Hanks, Fred Rogers is very much a supporting character in that film, since the majority of the film is about the journalist, played by Matthew Rhys, that did a profile piece on him and how his personal life was affected by the experience. There's definitely category fraud in the supporting categories these days, but Tom Hanks is 100% in the right category.
 

n00bs7ay3r

Member
Aug 21, 2018
773
These two are a bit strange:

Brad Pitt and Tom Hanks for best supporting actor? I’ve seen Once Upon... and Pitt is just as much the main character as Di Caprio. I haven’t seen Neighborhood but how is Hanks not the main character in a movie about Mister Rogers where he plays Mister Rogers?

What’s next, Harrison Ford gets a supporting actor nomination for Indiana Jones?
The movie is not about Mr. Rogers. It is about a journalist who is writing a piece about him. As for Brad Pitt, it could be argued that they share the lead role but I do think the movie largely revolves around Leo's character. Even if you don't see that, it would not be the first time that a studio made a bid for an actor to be nominated in a supporting role as opposed to a lead role solely because they think they have a better chance of winning (it seems unlikely that anyone is going to beat Phoenix for lead actor).
 

Figgles

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,498
These two are a bit strange:

Brad Pitt and Tom Hanks for best supporting actor? I’ve seen Once Upon... and Pitt is just as much the main character as Di Caprio. I haven’t seen Neighborhood but how is Hanks not the main character in a movie about Mister Rogers where he plays Mister Rogers?

What’s next, Harrison Ford gets a supporting actor nomination for Indiana Jones?
I haven’t seen it, but Neighborhood is told from someone else’s perspective.
 

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,711
Kitchener, ON
Parasite is by far the best picture in there.

I don’t believe it has any chance.
While not the likely front-runner by any means, Parasite definitely has a decent enough chance to win Best Picture. Especially with a preferential ballot that likely won't do some films (like the polarizing Joker) any favors.

Here's what Parasite needs for the stars to align so it can take Best Picture next month...

- It needs a favorable outcome at the PGAs this Saturday. The Producers Guild of America Awards award their Best Picture prize via a preferential ballot similar to the one adopted by the Academy when the Best Picture field was expanded in 2009. They have aligned with the eventual Best Picture recipient each of the past two years, 8 of the last 10 years in total and tipped off Birdman's win at the Oscars in 2015 despite its perceived fatal absence of a nomination for Best Film Editing.

While it would be nice if Parasite won the top PGA prize itself, it especially needs Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to lose. No editing nom AND a loss at the PGAs will effectively crack Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's armor and open this category up to the field.

As these awards precede the DGAs, it would also be ideal if 1917 lost.

Anything else can win and be considered a positive for Parasite's Best Picture chances... although I would be leery about an unlikely Joker nod as it would show it can best a preferential ballot (albeit from a smaller voting pool).

- It needs to outright win Best Director at the DGAs when they're awarded on the 26th. Oscar voting on today's nominations kicks off 4 days later on the 30th. With no acting noms it has to win for direction and the Directors Guild of America Awards are the most reliable precursor for securing a win in that category.

Those are the two big precursors. If those dominoes fall right then it'll be in good shape heading into the WGAs (a screenplay win along with the above would be cake), the ACE Eddies (OUaTiH losing to Jojo would be choice) and the BAFTAs the following week.

That's not to say it's impossible for Parasite to win without those two big precursors hitting right (after all, precursor patterns only hold true until they don't) but it will be extremely unlikely. If Parasite misses the DGA prize, I sincerely believe it's doomed to only win Best International Film with an outside shot at giving Bong Joon Ho a secondary Oscar for Best Original Screenplay (ahead of Tarantino).
 
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Martinski

Member
Jan 15, 2019
1,197
Göteborg
Nice to see Parasite with many nominations, probably best move i have seen in a few years. Rarely does a movie linger in my head long after i see it these days, but this one did.
 

Primal Sage

Member
Nov 27, 2017
785
Despite having top billing since he's, you know, Tom Hanks, Fred Rogers is very much a supporting character in that film, since the majority of the film is about the journalist, played by Matthew Rhys, that did a profile piece on him and how his personal life was affected by the experience. There's definitely category fraud in the supporting categories these days, but Tom Hanks is 100% in the right category.
thanks for the clarification. That makes sense then.
 

hiredhand

Member
Feb 6, 2019
440
That token Harriett nom. Y'all could have picked Awkwafina or Lupita without anyone being the wiser. Instead we're sitting on two noms from Bombshell's ass, that no one saw.

Parasite is by leagues the best movie nominated and its not even a close discussion. Once Upon will most likely win since the film is a sloppy blowjob to Hollywood. But I could see 1917 winning as well for an upset.

What I think and want to see win is Parasite, but the shit show for Todd Phillips winning best director would be something else.

From the Academy Award Winning Director.

I can't comment on the quality of the films or performances but a lot more people saw Bombshell than The Farewell. It made (so far) over 10 million more in the box office.
 

Hugare

Member
Aug 31, 2018
901
I'm feeling so conflicted by Parasite's recognition from critics, media, and vieweres in general

I think it's a good movie. It's great, even.
But korean cinema has so many gems and it never got the recognition that it deserved. Movies that, imho, are much better than Parasite.

The Handmaiden was, to me, the last straw. That movie was perfection from start to bottom. It deserved nominations for pretty much every technical category, minimum. But of course, it got none.

And suddenly, Parasite is somewhat "chosen" by the media. And because of that, also "chosen" by viewers in general, and alas, also by critics. And of course, by the Academy.

I'm mad because I feel like it's being treated like "an event", you know? When, in reality, korean cinema have been releasing excellent movies for years.

Sure, it will make some people look up for more korean movies, and I'm glad that Bong Joon-ho is getting the recognition that he deserves. But those movies that came before deserved so much more from the media, Academy and critics.
Chan-wook park, specially.

Sorry to stray away from the main focus of the topic, but I had to take this out of my chest
 

n00bs7ay3r

Member
Aug 21, 2018
773
I'm feeling so conflicted by Parasite's recognition from critics, media, and vieweres in general

I think it's a good movie. It's great, even.
But korean cinema has so many gems and it never got the recognition that it deserved. Movies that, imho, are much better than Parasite.

The Handmaiden was, to me, the last straw. That movie was perfection from start to bottom. It deserved nominations for pretty much every technical category, minimum. But of course, it got none.

And suddenly, Parasite is somewhat "chosen" by the media. And because of that, also "chosen" by viewers in general, and alas, also by critics. And of course, by the Academy.

I'm mad because I feel like it's being treated like "an event", you know? When, in reality, korean cinema have been releasing excellent movies for years.

Sure, it will make some people look up for more korean movies, and I'm glad that Bong Joon-ho is getting the recognition that he deserves. But those movies that came before deserved so much more from the media, Academy and critics.
Chan-wook park, specially.

Sorry to stray away from the main focus of the topic, but I had to take this out of my chest
I understand how you feel. Try being queer and having a big budget Disney movie receive props for showing a one second kiss and getting "praised" for being progressive.
 

Scullibundo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,409
I'm feeling so conflicted by Parasite's recognition from critics, media, and vieweres in general

I think it's a good movie. It's great, even.
But korean cinema has so many gems and it never got the recognition that it deserved. Movies that, imho, are much better than Parasite.

The Handmaiden was, to me, the last straw. That movie was perfection from start to bottom. It deserved nominations for pretty much every technical category, minimum. But of course, it got none.

And suddenly, Parasite is somewhat "chosen" by the media. And because of that, also "chosen" by viewers in general, and alas, also by critics. And of course, by the Academy.

I'm mad because I feel like it's being treated like "an event", you know? When, in reality, korean cinema have been releasing excellent movies for years.

Sure, it will make some people look up for more korean movies, and I'm glad that Bong Joon-ho is getting the recognition that he deserves. But those movies that came before deserved so much more from the media, Academy and critics.
Chan-wook park, specially.

Sorry to stray away from the main focus of the topic, but I had to take this out of my chest
You’re right in that there are many Korean gems that come out all the time. This is one of them.

Also, whilst I very much enjoyed The Handmaiden, it’s no Parasite.
 

Hugare

Member
Aug 31, 2018
901
I understand how you feel. Try being queer and having a big budget Disney movie receive props for showing a one second kiss and getting "praised" for being progressive.
I'm not queer, but I get mad for this kind of thing all the time

Like, Christina Aguilera released the video for "Beautiful" in 2002, showing a homossexual couple kissing

You’re right in that there are many Korean gems that come out all the time. This is one of them.

Also, whilst I very much enjoyed The Handmaiden, it’s no Parasite.
I recognize that it is one of them.
But to the Academy and a lot of critics (and viewers), there's no "them". That's why I'm mad.

And I respect your opinion, but you would have a hard time trying to convince me that Parasite is better than The Handmaiden in almost every category.
 

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,711
Kitchener, ON
I've been screening a bunch of Oscar nomination reaction videos today.
I have to share this one from Fandom because the rant that kicks things off hits so many right notes.

 
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rhindle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
143
I've been screening a bunch of Oscar nomination reaction videos today.
I have to share this one from Fandom because the rant that kicks things off hits so many right notes.

He makes a good point. The time compression goes a long way to explaining why so many smaller films are getting completely overlooked (like A24's entire 2019 slate). not enough people had time to see the damn things.

It also explains the Netflix films being nominated for practically every category they were eligible for. Those things everyone has seen.
 

n00bs7ay3r

Member
Aug 21, 2018
773
I'm not queer, but I get mad for this kind of thing all the time

Like, Christina Aguilera released the video for "Beautiful" in 2002, showing a homossexual couple kissing


I recognize that it is one of them.
But to the Academy and a lot of critics (and viewers), there's no "them". That's why I'm mad.

And I respect your opinion, but you would have a hard time trying to convince me that Parasite is better than The Handmaiden in almost every category.
I hope it leads to more recognition of foreign (aka non-american) films in general. Just like I hope that kiss leads to more queer representation in media. It is hard not to be upset in the moment though. I will also note that Antonio Banderas getting nods for Pain and Glory does also make some strides for foreign media. Unfortunately none will win but maybe one day they will.
 

Sasliquid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,249
I'm feeling so conflicted by Parasite's recognition from critics, media, and vieweres in general

I think it's a good movie. It's great, even.
But korean cinema has so many gems and it never got the recognition that it deserved. Movies that, imho, are much better than Parasite.

The Handmaiden was, to me, the last straw. That movie was perfection from start to bottom. It deserved nominations for pretty much every technical category, minimum. But of course, it got none.

And suddenly, Parasite is somewhat "chosen" by the media. And because of that, also "chosen" by viewers in general, and alas, also by critics. And of course, by the Academy.

I'm mad because I feel like it's being treated like "an event", you know? When, in reality, korean cinema have been releasing excellent movies for years.

Sure, it will make some people look up for more korean movies, and I'm glad that Bong Joon-ho is getting the recognition that he deserves. But those movies that came before deserved so much more from the media, Academy and critics.
Chan-wook park, specially.

Sorry to stray away from the main focus of the topic, but I had to take this out of my chest
From my understanding the Korean Film Institute hates Park Chan-Wook for political reasons and that’s why none of his films have been put in for Best International Picture. Thankfully theyre getting better apparently.

That’s why it wasn’t even nominated but won best Foreign Film at the Baftas (where countries aren’t limited to one entry)
 

Hours Left

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,496
Parasite better sweep, because Knives Out not getting Best Picture or Director nods is legitimately insane.

If Joker wins anything, nuke the entire planet.
 

n00bs7ay3r

Member
Aug 21, 2018
773
Parasite better sweep, because Knives Out not getting Best Picture or Director nods is legitimately insane.

If Joker wins anything, nuke the entire planet.
Even if Todd Philips wasn't there Greta Gerwig would have been the next most deserving director. I do think Knives Out should win for screenplay though.

Granted your last sentence (despite being a joke I hope) doesn't exactly paint you as an honest contributer to the conversation.
 

Cubo

Member
May 14, 2018
213
I'm feeling so conflicted by Parasite's recognition from critics, media, and vieweres in general

I think it's a good movie. It's great, even.
But korean cinema has so many gems and it never got the recognition that it deserved. Movies that, imho, are much better than Parasite.

The Handmaiden was, to me, the last straw. That movie was perfection from start to bottom. It deserved nominations for pretty much every technical category, minimum. But of course, it got none.

And suddenly, Parasite is somewhat "chosen" by the media. And because of that, also "chosen" by viewers in general, and alas, also by critics. And of course, by the Academy.

I'm mad because I feel like it's being treated like "an event", you know? When, in reality, korean cinema have been releasing excellent movies for years.

Sure, it will make some people look up for more korean movies, and I'm glad that Bong Joon-ho is getting the recognition that he deserves. But those movies that came before deserved so much more from the media, Academy and critics.
Chan-wook park, specially.

Sorry to stray away from the main focus of the topic, but I had to take this out of my chest
I feel you. So much. Thank you for posting this :P I still have to recover from the mild disappointment that "Parasite" was for me. All the hype and "don't read anything about it" made me expect something crazy, but the movie turned out to be even white and conventional by Bong Jooon-Ho's standards. I understand that's also why it's getting that much praise. It's a great movie with almost no eccentricities but that still manages to be something different to what the audience is used to. Anyway, it's incredible and absurd that Korean cinema didn't have an Oscar until now, so I'm happy the time has finally come.

PS: and yes The Handmaiden IS perfection.
 

Timbuktu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,945
I'm feeling so conflicted by Parasite's recognition from critics, media, and vieweres in general

I think it's a good movie. It's great, even.
But korean cinema has so many gems and it never got the recognition that it deserved. Movies that, imho, are much better than Parasite.

The Handmaiden was, to me, the last straw. That movie was perfection from start to bottom. It deserved nominations for pretty much every technical category, minimum. But of course, it got none.

And suddenly, Parasite is somewhat "chosen" by the media. And because of that, also "chosen" by viewers in general, and alas, also by critics. And of course, by the Academy.

I'm mad because I feel like it's being treated like "an event", you know? When, in reality, korean cinema have been releasing excellent movies for years.

Sure, it will make some people look up for more korean movies, and I'm glad that Bong Joon-ho is getting the recognition that he deserves. But those movies that came before deserved so much more from the media, Academy and critics.
Chan-wook park, specially.

Sorry to stray away from the main focus of the topic, but I had to take this out of my chest
I understand that feeling. Parasite is in the same boat that some foreign language movies get into ever so often. Films like Infernal Affairs or In the Mood for Love can’t even get on the long list, but films that are their remakes or inspire like The Departed and Lost in Translation can pick up the big awards.

I don’t think anyone thinks that Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon is the best Chinese language movie to exist because it got recognised by the Academy. That would be giving the Oscars too much credit, it is representative of Hollywood to an extent but not cinema as a whole. The rest of the world doesn’t need that validation.
 

Pariah

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,126
The Handmaiden was an amazing piece of cinema, but I don't think it felt so urgent in its themes, or so acidic in its social/class depicition as Parasite. It's also a longer film with two different cuts, one significantly better (in my opinion) than the other, so there would always be the doubt of which version did people and voters see. I know the theatrical version was the shorter, less intricate cut; that's probably the one most people saw and judged the film based on it.

I'm pretty sure, however, that the main point of contention for the Academy was its sexual charge and violence, pretty much like it happened with Old Boy back in its day. Regardless of the motive, Parasite is in the same league or above it; if Hollywood wants to make an event of it, so be it. They won't go as far in any case as to give it its top award.
 

nib95

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,160
Surprised Knives Out wasn't nominated for best picture, but out of those my pick would be Parasite, second choice Marriage Story.
 

Frodo

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
1,000
Can I use this chance to recommend on of the best Channels on YouTube, Be Kind Rewind.


If you want more insight of how the Academy usually works, and what it takes to win an Oscar. (Spoiler: it's not just talent)

p.s.: watch the great video about casting Vivien Leigh for Gone wit the Wind too.
 

Brazil

The Dude of Prophecy
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
10,564
São Paulo, Brazil
While not the likely front-runner by any means, Parasite definitely has a decent enough chance to win Best Picture. Especially with a preferential ballot that likely won't do some films (like the polarizing Joker) any favors.

Here's what Parasite needs for the stars to align so it can take Best Picture next month...

- It needs a favorable outcome at the PGAs this Saturday. The Producers Guild of America Awards award their Best Picture prize via a preferential ballot similar to the one adopted by the Academy when the Best Picture field was expanded in 2009. They have aligned with the eventual Best Picture recipient each of the past two years, 8 of the last 10 years in total and tipped off Birdman's win at the Oscars in 2015 despite its perceived fatal absence of a nomination for Best Film Editing.

While it would be nice if Parasite won the top PGA prize itself, it especially needs Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to lose. No editing nom AND a loss at the PGAs will effectively crack Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's armor and open this category up to the field.

As these awards precede the DGAs, it would also be ideal if 1917 lost.

Anything else can win and be considered a positive for Parasite's Best Picture chances... although I would be leery about an unlikely Joker nod as it would show it can best a preferential ballot (albeit from a smaller voting pool).

- It needs to outright win Best Director at the DGAs when they're awarded on the 26th. Oscar voting on today's nominations kicks off 4 days later on the 30th. With no acting noms it has to win for direction and the Directors Guild of America Awards are the most reliable precursor for securing a win in that category.

Those are the two big precursors. If those dominoes fall right then it'll be in good shape heading into the WGAs (a screenplay win along with the above would be cake), the ACE Eddies (OUaTiH losing to Jojo would be choice) and the BAFTAs the following week.

That's not to say it's impossible for Parasite to win without those two big precursors hitting right (after all, precursor patterns only hold true until they don't) but it will be extremely unlikely. If Parasite misses the DGA prize, I sincerely believe it's doomed to only win Best International Film with an outside shot at giving Bong Joon Ho a secondary Oscar for Best Original Screenplay (ahead of Tarantino).
I’ll gladly take all of this and put it in my hopes and dreams jar, hahaha.

Thanks for the detailed rundown!
 

Dommo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
795
Australia
I'm feeling so conflicted by Parasite's recognition from critics, media, and vieweres in general

I think it's a good movie. It's great, even.
But korean cinema has so many gems and it never got the recognition that it deserved. Movies that, imho, are much better than Parasite.

The Handmaiden was, to me, the last straw. That movie was perfection from start to bottom. It deserved nominations for pretty much every technical category, minimum. But of course, it got none.

And suddenly, Parasite is somewhat "chosen" by the media. And because of that, also "chosen" by viewers in general, and alas, also by critics. And of course, by the Academy.

I'm mad because I feel like it's being treated like "an event", you know? When, in reality, korean cinema have been releasing excellent movies for years.

Sure, it will make some people look up for more korean movies, and I'm glad that Bong Joon-ho is getting the recognition that he deserves. But those movies that came before deserved so much more from the media, Academy and critics.
Chan-wook park, specially.

Sorry to stray away from the main focus of the topic, but I had to take this out of my chest
This seems like something of a sunken cost fallacy. Eventually, a Korean film was going to be nominated for BP and no amount of denying great films their due will retroactively nominate prior Korean films. That ship sailed, it sucks but it's only a good thing to see Parasite being nominated here, especially given this isn't even close to being a symbolic gesture: it's a fantastic film whether you prefer other Korean films or not.

I'm not even saying deny yourself these frustrations you're feeling, because it makes sense and the awards shows have been consistently fucking up for being so insular. But this is a good thing for Korean cinema. And the Oscars are a fucking farce anyway. The less energy put into worrying about their opinions the better.
 

True Savior

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,035
wasteland
I'm feeling so conflicted by Parasite's recognition from critics, media, and vieweres in general

I think it's a good movie. It's great, even.
But korean cinema has so many gems and it never got the recognition that it deserved. Movies that, imho, are much better than Parasite.

The Handmaiden was, to me, the last straw. That movie was perfection from start to bottom. It deserved nominations for pretty much every technical category, minimum. But of course, it got none.

And suddenly, Parasite is somewhat "chosen" by the media. And because of that, also "chosen" by viewers in general, and alas, also by critics. And of course, by the Academy.

I'm mad because I feel like it's being treated like "an event", you know? When, in reality, korean cinema have been releasing excellent movies for years.

Sure, it will make some people look up for more korean movies, and I'm glad that Bong Joon-ho is getting the recognition that he deserves. But those movies that came before deserved so much more from the media, Academy and critics.
Chan-wook park, specially.

Sorry to stray away from the main focus of the topic, but I had to take this out of my chest
that happens a lot (not just awards stuff) The right place and the right time. At least it's a very good movie catching that wave.
 

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,711
Kitchener, ON
The Oscar best picture race could be over this weekend. Here’s why - Chicago Tribune

Talk about a contracted awards season: The Oscar nominations have just arrived and the best picture race may be all but over.

Congratulations to Sam Mendes and the "1917" team. Don't forget to thank the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. again when you accept the Oscar.

Maybe I'm getting a little ahead of myself. Maybe in my haste to wash away the sins from an awards season that roundly ignored movies made by women about women in favor of, oh, two more popes than should have been nominated, I'm anxious to roll up the red carpet, watch "Parasite" win its one measly Oscar and finally get around to binge-watching "Dickinson."

But if Monday’s nominations didn’t settle the Oscar best picture race, Saturday’s Producers Guild Awards could squash the suspense entirely. And after winning the Golden Globe for best picture drama last weekend and over-performing at the box office this weekend ($36.5 million, thanks in part to that Globes bounce), “1917” probably will be celebrating again when the PGA Awards reveal its final winner.

Mendes' war movie has accrued unstoppable momentum in a brief window of time.

The biggest Oscar nomination this morning wasn't Todd Phillips' nod for directing "Joker" or Kathy Bates slipping in ahead of Jennifer Lopez in the supporting actress category. (Did you not cry along with Bates in "Richard Jewell" when the FBI returned her Tupperware and it was ruined?)

No, the most significant nomination was "1917" earning a spot in the original screenplay category, making Mendes a triple nominee (he produced, directed and co-wrote, with Krysty Wilson-Cairns, the script) and keeping the film safe from some daunting Oscar history.

A movie can win the best picture Oscar without earning any acting nominations. (The list includes "Slumdog Millionaire," "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" and another war film, "Braveheart.") A movie can win without a screenplay nod. (Remember when "Titanic" was king of the world?) But if it's shut out in both areas, you can forget about writing that acceptance speech. You won't need it.

So "1917" bagged that screenplay nomination. And it doesn't really need the acting noms because everyone loves George MacKay and Dean-Charles Chapman playing the two British soldiers on a mission to deliver a crucial warning message to comrades about to fall into a trap set by the Germans. Not enough to nominate them, no, but they arrived late to stacked acting categories that didn't even have room for Robert De Niro ("The Irishman"), Christian Bale ("Ford v Ferrari"), Taron Egerton ("Rocketman"), Eddie Murphy ("Dolemite Is My Name") and (hold on, I'm wiping away a tear) Adam Sandler's live-wire turn in "Uncut Gems."

So the acting omission isn't a problem for "1917." The film editors branch shunned the movie as well because its voters apparently respond mostly to manically cut movies ("Beelzebub has a devil put aside for me, for me, for meeeeeeee!"), and "1917" was constructed to appear as if it takes place in a single shot.

Another movie that came up empty with the editors was Quentin Tarantino's "Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood," the one film I think that could wrest the best picture Oscar from "1917," even though only 10 movies have won that top award without an editing nomination. ("Birdman," designed, like "1917," to look like it was shot in one take, was the last.)

"Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood" earned 10 nominations, just like "1917" and Martin Scorsese's "The Irishman," a mob epic that feels fated to repeat the 0-for-10 Oscar run of the filmmaker's 2002 period drama "Gangs of New York."

"Joker" led the field with 11, and though a best picture trophy would go over on social media about as well as an Arthur Fleck appearance on Murray Franklin's talk show, you can bet that Warner Bros. will go all in on a campaign.

But unlike the other 23 categories in which a popular vote determines the winners, the best picture Oscar is decided on a preferential ballot. Voters will rank the nine nominated movies and then PricewaterhouseCoopers accountants will count the votes and, if one film has more than 50% of the first-place votes, it will win best picture.

If that doesn't happen (and it probably won't), the movie with the fewest first-place votes will be eliminated, with its votes given to that ballot's second-ranked film. The process continues — lowest-ranked movie eliminated, votes redistributed to the next choice down — until one film has more than 50% of the vote.

This means that a divisive movie like "Joker," a bleak and disquieting film that a lot of academy members tell me they won't even watch ("I don't want to invite that character into my life," one tells me), can't win. The system is geared to reward not the "best" picture, but the least disliked. "Green Book," last year's winner, embodies this winner-most-people-can-live-with ethos. Who hates "Green Book" ... other than the internet?

"Joker" and "1917" are both impeccably crafted, reflected in the nominations for production design, cinematography, makeup and hair and sound. But the former wallows in nihilism while the latter offers a moving portrait of bravery, fortitude and friendship. Which movie will be the least disliked?

Maybe neither. Maybe the Oscar will go to “Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood,” a wistful ode to ... Hollywood and its past. But, making these decisions, voters don’t reflect on questions like: Would it be fair and right if Sam Mendes has two Oscars for directing and Quentin Tarantino has none? Voters go with their guts. Voters also like to back a winner. And with a soaring box office and honors piling up, “1917” has the look of a movie about to own the awards season.
For the record, 9 out of 11 Gold Derby experts/editors presently back Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as their pick to take down the PGA best picture prize on Saturday night.