So it absolutely won't win, then.
Wow, ok.
Haven't seen Parasite yet (might see it tonight) but I have difficulty believing the ensemble tops DiCaprio, Pitt, Margot Robbie, Al Pacino, and more.
The hell are y'all watching?
I thought the oscars weren't till Feb
I still think it's between 1917 and Hollywood for Best Picture with a 80% chance for 1917.
Hollywood lost Ace Eddie, PGA and now SAG, it won't win DGA (that will be Parasite or 1917), and it's not eligible for WGA (which Parasite might also win). This means Hollywood will likely not have a single major guild win, thus it won't have enough strength for best picture.That's where I'm at, but Parasite winning SAG and remaining in the conversation so late in the game is beyond anything one could have expected
Hollywood lost Ace Eddie, PGA and now SAG, it won't win DGA (that will be Parasite or 1917), and it's not eligible for WGA (which Parasite might also win). This means Hollywood will likely not have a single major guild win, thus it won't have enough strength for best picture.
Barring some sort of miracle Oscar screenplay win for Hollywood (which gives Hollywood a path to win but still doesn't resolve the zero major guild win issue), best picture is 1917 vs Parasite
It's over for Hollywood.I still think it's between 1917 and Hollywood for Best Picture with a 80% chance for 1917.
Talent won tonight
the talent jumped out!
also yeah, Hollywood is DOA. Losing PGA and SAG back to back was big bad. 1917 is winning BAFTA and DGA, Parasite winning WGA(hollywood wasn't eligible but still). Its got Brad, production design and possibly O. Screenplay, and honestly I wouldn't be shocked at this point if Bong got that. There's clearly passion for that movie.
Sometimes the academy screws up and gives the right movie the award.
*cough*Moonlight*cough*
Is Irishman even winning anything at the Oscars? Pretty sad if not.
Possible but unlikely, don't be sad, it's just publicy and other people's opinions.Is Irishman even winning anything at the Oscars? Pretty sad if not.
the talent jumped out!
also yeah, Hollywood is DOA. Losing PGA and SAG back to back was big bad. 1917 is winning BAFTA and DGA, Parasite winning WGA(hollywood wasn't eligible but still). Its got Brad, production design and possibly O. Screenplay, and honestly I wouldn't be shocked at this point if Bong got that. There's clearly passion for that movie.
Screenplay can absolutely happen. In fact, at this point I'm gonna go ahead and predict it. Hollywood is DOA outside Supporting Actor and maybe Production design.You have to remember everyone fucking loves Bong. So he has a shot at screenplay and director
You have to remember everyone fucking loves Bong. So he has a shot at screenplay and director
But there weren't any actors in that movie...
It's between 1917 with the PGA win and Parasite with the SAG and ACE wins now. Really wouldn't be unhappy either way but I want Parasite to get it.
It's one of the guilds where many vote on oscars. All the other stuff is kind of nonsense when it comes to the Oscars, but the guilds are huge.
Parasite also won an award from the Editors for editing.
My mistake!
There's no way 1917 is winning BP without Director.The random scenario I can see is
Pic - 1917
Direc - Bong
Screen - QT
I think he's more likely to win director than screenplay. This is based on nothing, by the way. DGA will help.
Hollywood lost Ace Eddie, PGA and now SAG, it won't win DGA (that will be Parasite or 1917), and it's not eligible for WGA (which Parasite might also win). This means Hollywood will likely not have a single major guild win, thus it won't have enough strength for best picture.
Barring some sort of miracle Oscar screenplay win for Hollywood (which gives Hollywood a path to win but still doesn't resolve the zero major guild win issue), best picture is 1917 vs Parasite
Acting and screenplay/editing were the strongest aspects of those films, tho.Eh, out of 7 last years only two pics won both director and BP. Neither of two major contenders have any major acting noms. It's a weird year. Recently Director started being treated sort of like a consolation prize for foreign directors, so this could still possibly happen. Only one British and one American director won this decade, 1917 winning BP and Bong winning director wouldn't be anything out of ordinary
The editing slight seems like a technicality. Pretty much any editing award that 1917 has been up for where it wasn't ruled out before noms because of their silly "single take doesn't count as actual editing" bias, it's won. So I don't put much stock in that omission. Especially when it's an omission that most people expected from the Academy because of the Birdman precedent.Acting and screenplay/editing were the strongest aspects of those films, tho.
1917's lack of acting and editing noms means it needs to win at least one major prize, and it's not going to be best screenplay.
But yeah, this year is indeed weird. Either we get the first BP winner with no acting or editing since 1932 or we get the first foreign language film ever. :O
I'm rooting for it as it's the only one that jumps in Quality for all aspects of the filmThe only way the Oscars can be salvaged is if Parasite wins best picture.
The fuck is it with this Judy nothing-movie movie winning best actress all over the damn place.
The Acting categories I'm least sure about are the Supporting ones, a lot of shit can go wrong there.I remember last year when Glenn Close swept the precursors but ended up losing the Oscar. That could possibly happen to someone this year.
People are putting too much value on the SAG ensemble award.
Of the last 10 winners, only four have went on to win the best picture Oscar. Neither The Shape of Water or Green Book was even nominated.
Last year Black Panther also had zero acting nominations and won the PGA ensemble.Speculating why it might be different this year, Parasite has no acting nominations but the fact that it won their equivalent of BP shows that actors like the movie enough to vote for it. Can foresee it getting a lot of first through like third place votes, which might be enough.
Can't even trust that these days.
Same thing as when Julianne Moore won for a movie nobody saw. It's such a weird situation like people just accept it's that person'a turn.
It's not really the same. That was Julianne Moore's first Oscar and she was widely considered to be due. Zellweger already has an Oscar from Cold Mountain (pretty terrible performance BTW).Same thing as when Julianne Moore won for a movie nobody saw. It's such a weird situation like people just accept it's that person'a turn.
"Wait, there's been a mistake! Parasite, you guys won best picture!"