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92nd Oscar Nominees
- Thread starter vestan
- Start date
I thought it was hyperbole, but the movie felt like it was a long shot.
Really bummed about Zellweger being a lock for this oscar.
It feels to me like such a wasted Oscar and any of the other nominees would make for a more exciting win.
The academy should be ultra careful about elevating someone to two-time status.
I don't see much of a career or an impact for Zellwegger's career. Its gonna be yet another Hillary Swank case...Does anyone even know who she is besides oscar enthusiasts ?
She's starred in hit many hit films - Chicago, Jerry Magire (so?), Brigette Jones films - she's lasted a long time as an actress. As for an Oscar not setting her career on fire, realistically, at her age the parts available in movies are going to be minimal, but she can also get roles in tv to fill the void.
Someone would have to shut the internet down for a couple of days.
You'll see similar reactions if Trump gets re-elected in November.
I don't like the idea of Zellweger winning her second Oscar but denying her an Oscar because it wouldn't have much impact on her career sure is a weird take.
Following your logic only acceptable winner would be Cynthia Erivo because the Oscar win wouldn't really have much of an effect on the careers of the other nominees (Johansson, Ronan, Theron or Zellweger).
My Oscar picks now that I've seen some more of the films:
- Best Picture: The Irishman
- Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
- Lead Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
- Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, The Irishman
- Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
- Director: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Animated Feature: Toy Story 4, Josh Cooley
- Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman
- Original Screenplay: Parasite
- Cinematography: Lawrence Sher, Joker
- Best International Feature Film: Parasite, Bong Joon Ho
- Film Editing: The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker
- Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari, Don Sylvester
- Sound Mixing: 1917
- Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Original Score: Joker, Hindus Guonadottir
- Original Song: Into the Unknown, Frozen II
- Makeup and Hair: Joker
- Costume Design: Little Women, Jacqueline Duran
- Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Cynthia's actually got a decent shot of nabbing an Oscar this year.
Just not for Best Actress.
I just feel that every year is a chance to comemorate a great actress. The academy should try to make it a different winner every year as much as they can.
Only actors who have shown extraordinary acting careers should receive a 2nd oscar to crown their careers.
Zellwegger is just not that kind of actress.
She is a solid working actress and a nomination should've sufficed.
Maybe she'll continue to do impressive work and retroactively earn this oscar. But her current career simply isn't deserving of two-time status.
Unrelated but meanwhile Amy Adams has no Oscar...
The movie is one long shot, it's the whole movie's gimmick. 1917's thing is that it was clearly done in a few dozen shots, but the editing is done well enough to the point where you can't tell. Doing that with Cumberbatch would be an incredibly stupid filmmaking decision from a practical and a financial perspective.
Saw 1917 yesterday. I liked it but I was expecting more given the buzz.
From BP nominees The Irishman will be the last one I will watch as I'm not interested into Jojo and Ford x Ferrari.
1. Joker
2. Parasite
3. OUATIH
4. Little Women
5. 1917
6. Marriage Story
From BP nominees The Irishman will be the last one I will watch as I'm not interested into Jojo and Ford x Ferrari.
1. Joker
2. Parasite
3. OUATIH
4. Little Women
5. 1917
6. Marriage Story
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I hope so! I got really mad as the movie was only exhibited for less than a week here in Brazil(I live in Rio). Only thing I'm worried is about how CG will affect my experience as I didn't like it when I saw the trailers.
Same, but it's still a great film. I'd rather have Parasite sweep if it's between those two, however.
Definitely a great film. If the race is between it and Parasite I'm also with Parasite.
Some more noteworthy guild awards tonight.
Sam Mendes took home the Best Director prize at the DGA Awards tonight solidifying his front-runner spot for both the Best Director and Best Picture prize for 1917 at this year's Academy Awards. I legitimately considered this to be a must-win to keep Parasite in the running... and while I do believe Parasite is still in play for both Editing and Screenplay (along with its locked-in International Film Oscar), I consider its shot at landing Director and Picture to be done. It still has an outside shot at Production Design should Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 divide the votes allowing it to sneak up the middle.
American Factory took home the DGA prize for documentary direction.
Ford v Ferrari won big with the Cinema Audio Society awards for sound mixing.
Roger Deakins (as expected) took home the American Society of Cinematographers award for 1917.
And Greta Gerwig notched a win by landing this year's USC Scripter Award for Little Women.
Meanwhile, the Annies shook up the Animated Feature competition in a big way.
Klaus decimated the competition at the Annies winning everywhere it was nominated.
And I Lost My Body took home the best independent feature prize.
So Netflix threw down the proverbial gauntlet post-Missing Link taking home the prize at the Globes.
The Annies have been in lockstep with the Academy in the Animated Feature category since Big Hero 6 took home the prize 5 years ago... and have been a relatively reliable precursor outside of the years when the Academy elected to snub How to Train Your Dragon installments. I mean, I'm not that surprised given that the Annies passed on Toy Story 3 as well but I was not expecting to see Klaus run the table.
Sam Mendes took home the Best Director prize at the DGA Awards tonight solidifying his front-runner spot for both the Best Director and Best Picture prize for 1917 at this year's Academy Awards. I legitimately considered this to be a must-win to keep Parasite in the running... and while I do believe Parasite is still in play for both Editing and Screenplay (along with its locked-in International Film Oscar), I consider its shot at landing Director and Picture to be done. It still has an outside shot at Production Design should Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 divide the votes allowing it to sneak up the middle.
American Factory took home the DGA prize for documentary direction.
Ford v Ferrari won big with the Cinema Audio Society awards for sound mixing.
Roger Deakins (as expected) took home the American Society of Cinematographers award for 1917.
And Greta Gerwig notched a win by landing this year's USC Scripter Award for Little Women.
Meanwhile, the Annies shook up the Animated Feature competition in a big way.
Klaus decimated the competition at the Annies winning everywhere it was nominated.
And I Lost My Body took home the best independent feature prize.
So Netflix threw down the proverbial gauntlet post-Missing Link taking home the prize at the Globes.
The Annies have been in lockstep with the Academy in the Animated Feature category since Big Hero 6 took home the prize 5 years ago... and have been a relatively reliable precursor outside of the years when the Academy elected to snub How to Train Your Dragon installments. I mean, I'm not that surprised given that the Annies passed on Toy Story 3 as well but I was not expecting to see Klaus run the table.
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Saw the movie on Christmas Day with the family. Its pretty good but I didn't think much of it until that Oscar nomination. Props to them for winning all those Annies.
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Currently expecting the big winners to be 1917, Joker, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Expecting those four to sweep up most of the show. (With 1917 winning Best Picture)
Expecting those four to sweep up most of the show. (With 1917 winning Best Picture)
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So they gave bong the biggest ovation...and the vote for Mendes? 🤷♂️
This decade we had two instances when the PGA+DGA winner lost the Oscar: La La Land and Gravity. They lost to movies with strong screenplay, more socially important themes and a big ensemble: 12 Years a Slave and Moonlight. Movies seen as big technical achievements are most vulnerable to an upset in Best picture.
1917 is the frontrunner but don't count Parasite out yet.
1917 is the frontrunner but don't count Parasite out yet.
Very nice! Klaus isn't that great of a movie but the animation in it is really spectacular. Glad to see true craft being rewarded. Wouldn't mind either Klaus or Missing Link taking the Oscar. The Academy's geriatric voting body that doesn't give a single fuck about animation will probably just give it to Disney though.
Let's deep dive those two instances a little bit further to better qualify Parasite's chances.
(Fun fact... the previous time the PGA/DGA winner lost was in 2006 when Brokeback Mountain lost to everyone's fave Best Picture winner, Crash.)
2014
Gravity
Precursors - DGA / PGA * TIE * / No SAG Ensemble nom / No WGA nom
Oscar Nominations (10) - Picture, Actress, Production Design
Oscar Wins (7) - Director, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects
Noteworthy Oscar Snubs - No Screenplay nomination
12 Years a Slave
Precursors - PGA * TIE * / Golden Globe (over Gravity) / BAFTA (over Gravity) / Critics' Choice (over Gravity) / Ineligible for WGA Screenplay nom
Oscar Nominations (9) - Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design
Oscar Wins (3) - Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay
2017
La La Land
Precursors - DGA / PGA / Golden Globe / BAFTA / Critics' Choice / No SAG Ensemble nom
Oscar Nominations (14) - Picture, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Costume Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Song #2
Oscar Wins (6) - Director, Actress, Cinematography, Production Design, Original Score, Original Song #1
Moonlight
Precursors - WGA (over La La Land) / Golden Globe / NSFC
Oscar Nominations (8) - Director, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score
Oscar Wins (3) - Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
2020
1917
Precursors - DGA / PGA / Golden Globe / BAFTA noms (Best Film / Outstanding British Film) / WGA Screenplay nom / No SAG Ensemble nom
Oscar Nominations (10) - Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Score, Sound Editing/Mixing, Visual Effects
Noteworthy Oscar Snubs - No Acting nominations, No Film Editing nomination
Parasite
Precursors - SAG / Golden Globe {Foreign Language} / NSFC / BAFTA noms (Best Film / Best Film not in English) / WGA Screenplay nom
Oscar Nominations (6) - Picture, Director, International Feature Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design
Noteworthy Oscar Snubs - No Acting nominations
Let's look at the 2014 race first.
While you can certainly make the correlation that Gravity was a DGA/PGA winner that lost out to Best Picture, the PGA win was essentially a wash with 12 Years a Slave so the latter film had already shown considerable strength in a preferential ballot situation. It had also bested Gravity at the Globes, at BAFTA and at Critics' Choice for the Best Picture prize. Gravity clearly had no support from the writers branch... no film since Titanic has won Best Picture without a Screenplay nomination. Even The Artist - a silent film - landed a screenplay nomination. And the overall Oscar nomination count was pretty even. While there was a great deal of support for Gravity - it was my personal favourite film of the year - it hardly felt like a surefire Best Picture front-runner. It felt highly vulnerable and those vulnerabilities manifested themselves on Oscar night.
2017's race was much more of a surprise. La La Land had been the pre-ordained Best Picture winner since its premiere at the Venice Film Festival in September. In retrospect, the SAG Ensemble snub jumps out as a red flag, but the movie did enjoy some support from the acting branch given that Emma Stone won an Oscar and Ryan Gosling sang a song that won another. Moonlight did best it for the WGA prize... but La La Land won Screenplay at the Globes and they both lost to Manchester by the Sea at BAFTA, so this didn't exactly foretell overwhelming support from the writers branch for one film over the other. La La Land just seems like the victim of a front-runner backlash that persisted over 5 1/2 months until the Best Picture winner was read... for the 2nd time.
So what can we take from the above and apply towards the 2020 race to gauge whether a 3rd DGA/PGA upset is potentially in the cards?
Well, there won't be any time for a front-runner narrative backlash to manifest itself against 1917 because it arrived onto the scene late and continues to make a splash at the box office. It has momentum that hasn't faded yet in addition to its growing litany of precursor prizes and a protracted awards season. Being a British film, it will win BAFTA next weekend... although whether that will be a good omen or not remains to be seen; BAFTA and the Oscars have deviated on Best Picture each of the past 5 years. That Screenplay nomination was important, too... because without it, 1917 would have had to do what Gravity could not and manage to win Best Picture without one. That was probably the most significant nomination when the noms were announced outside of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's Editing snub.
The next variable is whether the burgeoning support for Parasite outside of the Directors / Producers branches is imaginary or not. Parasite's sole precursor of note right now is its SAG Ensemble prize... and while monumental and historic, I'd say that says more for the lagging support of the films it was up against - most notably Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Irishman - than gauging its strength against Hollywood's shiny new video game cutscene / war movie toy.
Neither film landed any acting nominations from the Academy... and while many films have shown you can win Best Picture without them, there is 67 years of Oscar history saying those films need to win Best Director to accomplish that feat and Mendes is in the catbird's seat to do just that having won all of the precursors of note (the Globe, DGA and soon-to-be BAFTA).
But I am willing to concede that in a year with two such films as the Oscar front-runners, that standard logic may no longer apply.
That said, we need to start seeing SOME kind of precursor momentum for Parasite that would indicate some semblance of strength outside of the SAG win and tweets about Bong Joon-ho and company getting the loudest and most vociferous standing ovations. It pretty much has to win at WGA - unfortunately the Once Upon a Time in Hollywood script ineligibility situation makes even that potential win muddy and, more importantly, it has to win Original Screenplay at BAFTA (where Hollywood is in the field). Perhaps then we can start to manufacture a narrative of substance that Parasite has the support from the acting and writing branches to take 1917 down. That Best Original Screenplay Oscar seems like it's a prerequisite at this point.
1917 and Parasite would both be huge stat breakers if they won BP. No film since Grand Hotel has won Best Picture without acting or editing noms, about 88 years ago. No foreign language movie has ever won BP, period.
Going back to the PGA+DGA combo when they resulted in a win:
The Shape of Water - Two individual SAG noms + three Oscar acting noms.
Birdman - Won SAG ensemble + three individual noms + three Oscar acting noms.
Argo - Won SAG ensemble + one individual nom + one Oscar acting nom.
The Artist - SAG ensemble nom + one individual nom and one win + one Oscar acting nom and one win.
The King's Speech - Won SAG ensemble + two individual noms and one win + two Oscar acting noms and one win.
So while Parasite does not have an acting nom to compete with, 1917 has been blanked out on acting, editing, and isn't winning writing. By any precedent, its a very bizarre frontrunner and an upset wouldn't be completely out of the question. It would be doing something that Gravity, The Reverent, Inception, La La Land and several other technically accomplished blockbuster films couldn't do despite having more above the line support.
I have Parasite winning WGA, to go along with SAG and ACE. It has a very strong chance at Original Screenplay and Editing on Oscar night, along with IFF. I see a path similar to Spotlight, which did not win the PGA, DGA, BAFTAs, or Globes, but played well on a preferred ballot against its own December blockbuster.
Going back to the PGA+DGA combo when they resulted in a win:
The Shape of Water - Two individual SAG noms + three Oscar acting noms.
Birdman - Won SAG ensemble + three individual noms + three Oscar acting noms.
Argo - Won SAG ensemble + one individual nom + one Oscar acting nom.
The Artist - SAG ensemble nom + one individual nom and one win + one Oscar acting nom and one win.
The King's Speech - Won SAG ensemble + two individual noms and one win + two Oscar acting noms and one win.
So while Parasite does not have an acting nom to compete with, 1917 has been blanked out on acting, editing, and isn't winning writing. By any precedent, its a very bizarre frontrunner and an upset wouldn't be completely out of the question. It would be doing something that Gravity, The Reverent, Inception, La La Land and several other technically accomplished blockbuster films couldn't do despite having more above the line support.
I have Parasite winning WGA, to go along with SAG and ACE. It has a very strong chance at Original Screenplay and Editing on Oscar night, along with IFF. I see a path similar to Spotlight, which did not win the PGA, DGA, BAFTAs, or Globes, but played well on a preferred ballot against its own December blockbuster.
A lot of Academy members just vote for their friends, or the people they've known the longest, ones who they know have been working a long time. I think it's probably safe to assume that many to most voters never even heard of Bong before Parasite. Or at the very least certainly don't know him as well as Mendes.
you don't think Once Upon a Time is more likely than Parasite to upset 1917?
Hollywood is DOA. Its 100% PGA bait, but it couldn't win there. Its built for SAG ensemble, lost that to a foreign language movie. Didn't get any editing nom, which is big for any movie with Best Picture buzz and not shot in one-take like Birdman or 1917. Its got Brad's Oscar win, and a solid chance in O. Screenplay, Production Design, and Costume Design. That's it.
While I will be backing 1917 to win both Best Picture and Best Director on Oscar night, I would be thrilled to see Parasite pull off the unlikely upset. If only so we have some kind of reason to look back on these Oscars fondly.
The big takeaway for me when it comes to 1917's late surge this year... in contrast with other recent Best Director-winning films Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land and Roma that went on to lose Best Picture... is that 1917 hasn't missed anything it was expected to win.
Not a single thing.
It wasn't expected to get Oscar noms for acting or editing.
It wasn't expected to get a SAG ensemble nom.
It's cleaned up in a ton of awards it wasn't expected to win like the Globes and PGA.
Gravity missed at the Globes and BAFTA.
The Revenant missed PGA.
La La Land missed out on the SAG ensemble nom.
Roma missed PGA.
These films were all expected to land these prizes and missed.
Whereas 1917 has bested Parasite at each and every opportunity to give Parasite any kind of win ahead of it (outside of critics' groups).
The big takeaway for me when it comes to 1917's late surge this year... in contrast with other recent Best Director-winning films Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land and Roma that went on to lose Best Picture... is that 1917 hasn't missed anything it was expected to win.
Not a single thing.
It wasn't expected to get Oscar noms for acting or editing.
It wasn't expected to get a SAG ensemble nom.
It's cleaned up in a ton of awards it wasn't expected to win like the Globes and PGA.
Gravity missed at the Globes and BAFTA.
The Revenant missed PGA.
La La Land missed out on the SAG ensemble nom.
Roma missed PGA.
These films were all expected to land these prizes and missed.
Whereas 1917 has bested Parasite at each and every opportunity to give Parasite any kind of win ahead of it (outside of critics' groups).
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It's immediately apparent you have absolutely no idea what a producer does or how movies are actually made.
Makes sense. I loved it, but definitely didn't need to see Hollywood award itself Best Picture for what'd be the fourth time in a decade.
My rankings for best picture:
Little Women
1917
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Not seen:
Ford v Ferrari
Parasite
Hope I will really enjoy Parasite, but it's not out here yet. I expect I won't bother with Ford v Ferrari until it's on streaming.
In a way, I prefer Jojo Rabbit over Marriage Story and Joker - but I don't really think it should be in contention. Joker was fine, a good performance, but I also don't think it should be in contention. Marriage Story, yeah, good - I think viewing via Netflix may have hampered my enjoyment, but it did lack a bit for me.
I thoroughly enjoyed 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in the cinema, but didn't come away feeling that they were next level exceptional 'best picture' films. I really liked them, and wouldn't be upset if they won - but Little Women is the clear 'best in class' for me this year (not having seen Parasite). Loved Little Women.
Little Women
1917
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Not seen:
Ford v Ferrari
Parasite
Hope I will really enjoy Parasite, but it's not out here yet. I expect I won't bother with Ford v Ferrari until it's on streaming.
In a way, I prefer Jojo Rabbit over Marriage Story and Joker - but I don't really think it should be in contention. Joker was fine, a good performance, but I also don't think it should be in contention. Marriage Story, yeah, good - I think viewing via Netflix may have hampered my enjoyment, but it did lack a bit for me.
I thoroughly enjoyed 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in the cinema, but didn't come away feeling that they were next level exceptional 'best picture' films. I really liked them, and wouldn't be upset if they won - but Little Women is the clear 'best in class' for me this year (not having seen Parasite). Loved Little Women.
You're missing one important factor for the 2017 Oscar race. It was the first Oscars since the #oscarssowhite controversy. A controversy that affected Oscars much more than the precursor awards like the Baftas.
That year there was three films with predominantly black casts in the best picture category and black nominees in all the acting categories (a huge change from previous years). The Academy really wanted to clean their reputation and make everyone forget that there was any controversy in the first place.
Just saw Ford v Ferrari, a really fantastic movie that exceeded my expectations and was compelling and fun throughout its long runtime. Definitely deserving of its Best Picture nom spot.
My rankings:
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Little Women
Parasite
Ford v Ferrari
1917
Joker
Honestly all of them except Joker are deserving of a Best Picture win, and I liked Joker a lot too, with 1917 being the most boring choice. The Academy really got the nominations right here.
(bonus)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Two Popes
The Report
The Lighthouse
Ad Astra
Dolemite Is My Name
Only one more best picture nominee to go for me, Jo Jo Rabbit.
My rankings:
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Little Women
Parasite
Ford v Ferrari
1917
Joker
Honestly all of them except Joker are deserving of a Best Picture win, and I liked Joker a lot too, with 1917 being the most boring choice. The Academy really got the nominations right here.
(bonus)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Two Popes
The Report
The Lighthouse
Ad Astra
Dolemite Is My Name
Only one more best picture nominee to go for me, Jo Jo Rabbit.
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You basically just said "If 1917 was a different film that wasn't 1917".
If you're talking solely about the one take aspect, Birdman just won Best Picture a few years ago, and is not a war film.
Saw this last night, same feelings. Really exceeded what I expected. Bale was great and some fine editing and great racing shots. Only qualm was as someone who grew up near daytona and has seen 25+ races there including the rolex is it's clear they're not shooting at daytona during that scene. but that's more me being a stickler lol
it was exceedingly well paced for a 2:30 hr movie
This is the first year where i'm going to see the vast majority of best picture noms before the oscars (living in LA is wonderful). But this year is so stacked with great films, what a wonderful way to close out the 2010s in film