The ps4 will only sell 12 million more in it's lifetime? It will be close to 80 million after this Dec, I mean, some of these predictions have no basis in logic.
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A New ERA: Predict the lifetime sales for the PS4, Xbox One, Nintendo Switch, and Nintendo 3DS
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I believe Xbox 1 X will outsell PS4 Pro just my opinion and The PS4 will continue to outsell Xbox 1 with the Switch outselling everyone.
The 3ds had a 2ds and a new 3ds and all the color you could dream of plus a price point the switch will never hit and didn't hit 95 million. And the ps4 is going to hit your prediction this march.
I like these estimates. I came to post something similar.
Switch just needs to keep production up (it's at, what, 7m?) and maybe add some new SKU's that don't rely on NAND memory. Possibly some SKU's with a little more power, just to reach 1080 and not melt during MarioKart.
Xbox is at ~40m presently? I think with the X it will really start to sell well. It'll never touch the PS4, but it'll do well.
Xbox One - 60m
Switch - 60m
PS4 - 110m
World wide that is not even coming close to happen..you really think Europe/ROTW areas are gonna buy xbox one X over pro? US is maybe at best, even that arguable and unlike;y imo. Retail rumours are it's a pretty muted launch.
It is a terrible estimate...for this to happen, Xbox would need to start selling as fast or faster than PS4. The numbers are not even plausible.
Didn't you not get the memo that if you cherish one of the companies that logic is null?
Disappointing, there goes any sensible sales talk, out of this thread.
It's dead Jim, may it sleep easy in the afterlife as it was too beautiful for this world. I'd imagine it's current LTD plus maybe another 100-150k units on shelves to be sold in the US and Japan definitely mostly in Japan. Maybe a strong sell off of remaining units could bring that to 200k more units but doubtful.
This of course is in absolutely zero time frame... could be a couple years to sell off even that many units.
This really depends on PS5 announcement next year. People will hold up their purchase if Sony reveals PS5 soon. I think 12 million more before its eventual demise sounds logical.
I also expect PS5 to be launched in early 2019.
PS4: 112
Switch: 65
XB: 50
There is no way Switch will catch PS4. While nothing is totally impossible, it's extremely unlikely. Sony could stop selling the PS4 for a year and it would still be almost impossible. While the Switch is still hot, I feel like a lot of that is the combination of it's recent highly anticipated releases and the fact that they are actually in stock in many places now. It's gonna cool down.
Switch: 65
XB: 50
There is no way Switch will catch PS4. While nothing is totally impossible, it's extremely unlikely. Sony could stop selling the PS4 for a year and it would still be almost impossible. While the Switch is still hot, I feel like a lot of that is the combination of it's recent highly anticipated releases and the fact that they are actually in stock in many places now. It's gonna cool down.
PlayStation 4: - 117.5 million
Switch: - 82.25 million
3DS: - 75.2 million
Xbox One: - 47 million (or '984 million zombies killed', as Microsoft would prefer to use)
I am not overly sure how so many folks have put the Xbox One over 50% of total PlayStation 4 hardware sales, given that the gap is definitely over 2:1 nowadays.
In fact, I am not even sure if the Xbox One has passed the 30 million milestone yet!
Has it?
It just doesn't seem likely given its YoY drop virtually every single month in the NPD reports in 2017 thus far, and that general interest in its second biggest market - in the United Kingdom - has been wading ever since the beginning of this year. The growing percentage gap in software disparity in the UK charts backs this trend up even more so.
Switch: - 82.25 million
3DS: - 75.2 million
Xbox One: - 47 million (or '984 million zombies killed', as Microsoft would prefer to use)
I am not overly sure how so many folks have put the Xbox One over 50% of total PlayStation 4 hardware sales, given that the gap is definitely over 2:1 nowadays.
In fact, I am not even sure if the Xbox One has passed the 30 million milestone yet!
Has it?
It just doesn't seem likely given its YoY drop virtually every single month in the NPD reports in 2017 thus far, and that general interest in its second biggest market - in the United Kingdom - has been wading ever since the beginning of this year. The growing percentage gap in software disparity in the UK charts backs this trend up even more so.
PS4: Has had a consistent sales curve since launch and has not slowed down since Switch launch. I just find it weird that it is up YoY in US, but I can't tell if this is peak year or 2016. I will say that software output and announcements have kept it thriving.
3DS: Not really into 3DS, but i figured my guess would be respectable
Switch: Definitely a wildcard at the moment. Has had a good surge in its momentum as long as stock is not an issue, but coming in 4 years later to ps4/x1 makes me wonder how it will be when the next gen consoles come. I could see it doing similar to 3DS, but not break 100 million.
XB1: I don't see confidence in the brand itself and no vision to try and get out there as a real competitor to ps4. The constant hype of power/graphics is not bringing new growth and BC shows a focus of past games to mask the weakness of new software to set it apart from its competitors. I mean, it does well in US and UK, but how long can they really sustain their current audience if they can't grow it?
OH man where is this insanity coming from
Why would ps end the Gen? They are making money upon money and a new generation is just a huge risk. On top. Of this there is no new impressive tech like when PS4 was announced to even ship in a new Gen.
2020 is the absolute earliest Gen beginning possible... Probably 2021
This comes from entirely from the "ps must respond to the xb1x, right?" camp
They don't care
ps4: 122m
xb1: 48m
switch: 64m (with a proper console format and/or revised and much cheaper version of the handheld then plenty more)
xb1 install base increases by ~160% going forward when sales have drastically slowed this year? Sure...
Did I miss something at Paris Games Week? Did Sony announce they're not making ps4 beyond 2018?
xb1: 48m
switch: 64m (with a proper console format and/or revised and much cheaper version of the handheld then plenty more)
xb1 install base increases by ~160% going forward when sales have drastically slowed this year? Sure...
Did I miss something at Paris Games Week? Did Sony announce they're not making ps4 beyond 2018?
Nintendo 3DS: 80 million.
It is already at 69 million before the Christmas season, which will probably add 3-4 million more sales to its total. I see it selling another 8-7 million in the 2-3 years it will still be in production.
XBX1: 52 million.
I dont see a single reason why Scorpio will become nothing more than niche. Sales will remain being UK-US focused.
PS4: 128 million
I expect 14, 13, 12 million sales for the upcoming three years. Then something like 10 million the year PS5 is released (2021, lets assume). The console will have great post PS5 sales though.
Switch: 125 million when Switch 2 releases.
It has everything the 3DS had, plus a way, waay better consumer reception and product identity. It is already gathering western support, something the 3DS never had. All of these aspects, plus revisions and lower prices will make the Switch the best selling home console produced by Nintendo ever.
It is already at 69 million before the Christmas season, which will probably add 3-4 million more sales to its total. I see it selling another 8-7 million in the 2-3 years it will still be in production.
XBX1: 52 million.
I dont see a single reason why Scorpio will become nothing more than niche. Sales will remain being UK-US focused.
PS4: 128 million
I expect 14, 13, 12 million sales for the upcoming three years. Then something like 10 million the year PS5 is released (2021, lets assume). The console will have great post PS5 sales though.
Switch: 125 million when Switch 2 releases.
It has everything the 3DS had, plus a way, waay better consumer reception and product identity. It is already gathering western support, something the 3DS never had. All of these aspects, plus revisions and lower prices will make the Switch the best selling home console produced by Nintendo ever.
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I don't really know what to do with this... very doubtful that we will see a PS5 release in EARLY 2019 as in less then 18-20 months from now... really... really?
Last gen was 7-8 years long for Sony and MS, and that was without any secondary 4k models boosting production. To think this gen wouldn't last at least 7-8 years is rediculous... also with the PS4 maintaining momentum of sales of over 15m units a year why the hell would they just cut that off and stop selling a successful product that is market leader by a far margin in order to rush out a new gen I mean cmon dude.
We have games announced that probably won't even release before your supposed Ps5 release date haha.
OP
OP
I mean, it hasn't been relevant from a sales perspective for two years now
PS4: 119 million
I expect a PS5 release at the end of 2020. 79 million by 3/2018, +14 million the next fy, +11 the following, another +5 million until PS5 launch. Not expecting a lot of sales after the PS5 launch, as i predict a backwards compatible 400$ PS5, with the PS4 price not dropping under 150$.
XBox One: 51 million
Release of the next gen X-Box at the same time as PS5. Average sales per year in the 6-6.5 million range. Negligible amount of new consoles sold after NextBox release due to the budget market in the US beeing covered by used X-Box Ones from upgraders.
3DS: 75 million
Will probably beat the 72 mio prediction for 3/2018 slightly, but drop off completely afterwards with no more games releasing. Has overstayed it's welcome already, so basically no afterlife sales either.
Switch: See below.
LTD is basically impossible to predict, as we have no idea how long the Switch generation will last, and what kind of iterative upgrades they release. They could go for a straight successor after 4 years, or go for a longer lifespan of 6-7 years with 1-2 pro models and an entry level clamshell.
What I am willing to bet is that the peak fiscal year sees >25 million Switches shipped, it will outsell the X-Box One family before december 2019 and that my nintendo rewards will never be worth anything.
Edit: And if they release an oled Switch with Pokemon Joy Cons and a Red/Blue reimaging for the 25th anniversay it will become the best selling console of all time!
I expect a PS5 release at the end of 2020. 79 million by 3/2018, +14 million the next fy, +11 the following, another +5 million until PS5 launch. Not expecting a lot of sales after the PS5 launch, as i predict a backwards compatible 400$ PS5, with the PS4 price not dropping under 150$.
XBox One: 51 million
Release of the next gen X-Box at the same time as PS5. Average sales per year in the 6-6.5 million range. Negligible amount of new consoles sold after NextBox release due to the budget market in the US beeing covered by used X-Box Ones from upgraders.
3DS: 75 million
Will probably beat the 72 mio prediction for 3/2018 slightly, but drop off completely afterwards with no more games releasing. Has overstayed it's welcome already, so basically no afterlife sales either.
Switch: See below.
LTD is basically impossible to predict, as we have no idea how long the Switch generation will last, and what kind of iterative upgrades they release. They could go for a straight successor after 4 years, or go for a longer lifespan of 6-7 years with 1-2 pro models and an entry level clamshell.
What I am willing to bet is that the peak fiscal year sees >25 million Switches shipped, it will outsell the X-Box One family before december 2019 and that my nintendo rewards will never be worth anything.
Edit: And if they release an oled Switch with Pokemon Joy Cons and a Red/Blue reimaging for the 25th anniversay it will become the best selling console of all time!
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PS5 isn't coming out anytime soon. Sony is doing too well and making too much $. It's like saying GTA Online is gonna shut down in a few months.
Oh wow, it reached 2 mil already, 1 million feels like it happened like a month or 2 ago lol
This insanity is coming from Michael Pachter, I was quoting him. He believes Sony could go for soft generations, smaller technological gaps between them. With 4k tv adoptions lncreasing, Sony might consider releasing a true 4k PS sooner than expected.
My guesses
XB1: ~49 Million
PS4: ~104 Million
Switch: ~77 Million
Reasoning
- I don't see XB1X making any sort of meaningful gains for the platform because of the high price point and the lack of any real system selling SW to show off the advantages of the platform. Couple this with the rapid declines facing the base XB1 platform and extremely poor performance in most territories and emerging markets and I see the decline in sales continuing to drop off steeply as time goes on. I don't think we will see the Xbox platform sell more than 4 million units WW next year with a 35-45% drop for the next year.
- I see PS4 having longer legs in some of the emerging markets it's seen success in. While the sales are modest I could see them continuing well into the start of their new platform's release. I also think solid SW support will ensure continued sales for the platform in most territories leading up to the release of the new platform.
- I think the Switxh will sell extremely well in the major markets provided the SW support for the platform continues to be good. But I don't see the system securing a foothold for Nintendo in many of the emerging markets that are helping to carry PS4 to massive success this gen. As such o feel like this number reflects the amount of sales that major markets can carry for the platform thus gen. That said if Nintendo opts to extend the lifetime of the platform via iterative redesigns then it could easily enjoy a very very long life far beyond what the PS4 will enjoy. Should this happen I could see total sales for the platform reaching 100 million or more.
XB1: ~49 Million
PS4: ~104 Million
Switch: ~77 Million
Reasoning
- I don't see XB1X making any sort of meaningful gains for the platform because of the high price point and the lack of any real system selling SW to show off the advantages of the platform. Couple this with the rapid declines facing the base XB1 platform and extremely poor performance in most territories and emerging markets and I see the decline in sales continuing to drop off steeply as time goes on. I don't think we will see the Xbox platform sell more than 4 million units WW next year with a 35-45% drop for the next year.
- I see PS4 having longer legs in some of the emerging markets it's seen success in. While the sales are modest I could see them continuing well into the start of their new platform's release. I also think solid SW support will ensure continued sales for the platform in most territories leading up to the release of the new platform.
- I think the Switxh will sell extremely well in the major markets provided the SW support for the platform continues to be good. But I don't see the system securing a foothold for Nintendo in many of the emerging markets that are helping to carry PS4 to massive success this gen. As such o feel like this number reflects the amount of sales that major markets can carry for the platform thus gen. That said if Nintendo opts to extend the lifetime of the platform via iterative redesigns then it could easily enjoy a very very long life far beyond what the PS4 will enjoy. Should this happen I could see total sales for the platform reaching 100 million or more.
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You know when you're a kid and you're parents tell you to stay away from the bad man... well that man is Michael Pachter...
Also 4K adoption is only picking up in the US... the EU and Japan, and other Asian territories definitely not so much. When visiting my wife's family in the UK 4K TVs are not well represented at all. With very little being done to promote.
Thank you for correcting me. I was thinking of the beginning of this FY when Sony forecasted 18 million, but seemed to be selling more this year.
Well here it goes my wild estimation.
PS4 - 120M (Beast, I think PS5 release in 2019/2020 will cut its legs)
X1 - 60M (Nothing to say, the only foothold it has is the US market)
3DS - 80M (Eventually get there)
Switch 100M (Nice figure Nintty should be proud of)
PS4 - 120M (Beast, I think PS5 release in 2019/2020 will cut its legs)
X1 - 60M (Nothing to say, the only foothold it has is the US market)
3DS - 80M (Eventually get there)
Switch 100M (Nice figure Nintty should be proud of)
Theres far too many unknowns.
PS4 - 120M is a lock. Maybe more depending on major form factor changes later in life (portable PS4)
Switch - 75M for certain if it drops in price like the 3DS did. Which I think it will after some time. If it maintains momentum after Christmas at the same price then it could probably go as high as 90M
X1 - 55M is a lock. I think they may try to end the generation early and battle with pricepoint in the coming years which would notch them upwards maybe +10M
PS4 - 120M is a lock. Maybe more depending on major form factor changes later in life (portable PS4)
Switch - 75M for certain if it drops in price like the 3DS did. Which I think it will after some time. If it maintains momentum after Christmas at the same price then it could probably go as high as 90M
X1 - 55M is a lock. I think they may try to end the generation early and battle with pricepoint in the coming years which would notch them upwards maybe +10M
ps4-110 million
xb1- 60 million
Switch- 55 million
I think switch sales will die down
sales started declining after the one x was announced... hmm wonder why.
xb1- 60 million
Switch- 55 million
I think switch sales will die down
sales started declining after the one x was announced... hmm wonder why.
I predict something like:
PS4: 102m
It could sell more, but PS5 may be launching in 2019.
NSW: 82m
If I remember correctly It's tracking like 3DS in Japan but with better sales in the west, so a slightly higher number than the portable seems reasonable. It also kind of "lost" the Wii train in the first year with the stocks problem, but it could probably sell similarly in the next years. The revisions could also help.
3DS: 74m
The little portable is at the end of its life so it isn't hard to predict it'll end in the 70-80m range. I'm on the lower end because I can't see how could it sell well in 2018 (barring a Detective Pikachu localization, which could move millions of units alone).
XBO: 57m
It's not doing too hot right now and we'll probably never know the final numbers. Scorpio can reinvigorate sales but by how much we'll see.
That's about it. Feel free to quote and laugh at me in the future.
PS4: 102m
It could sell more, but PS5 may be launching in 2019.
NSW: 82m
If I remember correctly It's tracking like 3DS in Japan but with better sales in the west, so a slightly higher number than the portable seems reasonable. It also kind of "lost" the Wii train in the first year with the stocks problem, but it could probably sell similarly in the next years. The revisions could also help.
3DS: 74m
The little portable is at the end of its life so it isn't hard to predict it'll end in the 70-80m range. I'm on the lower end because I can't see how could it sell well in 2018 (barring a Detective Pikachu localization, which could move millions of units alone).
XBO: 57m
It's not doing too hot right now and we'll probably never know the final numbers. Scorpio can reinvigorate sales but by how much we'll see.
That's about it. Feel free to quote and laugh at me in the future.
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I'm not an analyst, I have no idea and am just posting out my ass but these are my predictions.
PS4 (including PS4 Pro) will sell 115 million lifetime.
Xbox One (Including S and X SKUS) will sell 85 million.
Nintendo Switch will sell 100 million.
Don't care about the Nintendo handheld proper.
PS4 (including PS4 Pro) will sell 115 million lifetime.
Xbox One (Including S and X SKUS) will sell 85 million.
Nintendo Switch will sell 100 million.
Don't care about the Nintendo handheld proper.
I don't really get many of the estimates here. I think people have been listening to Pachter too much, thinking this generation is somehow nearing its end, whereas it just got a boost, and there is a lot more to come. My predictions
PS4 - 67M => 140M. They are just hitting the halfway house.
Xbone - 30M => 60M. Same
Switch 10M => 100M. Between Wii and DS
That's 300M pretty conservatively, and not counting 3DS, Wii U or Vita.
PS4 - 67M => 140M. They are just hitting the halfway house.
Xbone - 30M => 60M. Same
Switch 10M => 100M. Between Wii and DS
That's 300M pretty conservatively, and not counting 3DS, Wii U or Vita.
PS4: 110m, more if the next console doesn't hit till after 2019.
Switch: 100m, although this is a bit weird to call without knowing if Nintendo do has changed their hardware cycles strategy. As in are they still operating under 5-6 year hardware cycles, or will that change.
XBO+Scorpio: 50m
3DS:75m
Switch: 100m, although this is a bit weird to call without knowing if Nintendo do has changed their hardware cycles strategy. As in are they still operating under 5-6 year hardware cycles, or will that change.
XBO+Scorpio: 50m
3DS:75m
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