A New ERA: Predict the lifetime sales for the PS4, Xbox One, Nintendo Switch, and Nintendo 3DS

[watdaeff4]

PS4: 115 million-125 million depending when the PS5 comes out

Xbox1: 50 million - 55 million tops

Switch: 80 million, but I could see it going over 100 million esp with a Switch+ or whatnot in addition to a couple of heavy hitting games (2D Mario and/or 2D Zelda, a couple of Pokemon games) in the next couple of years to keep this 1st year momentum rolling.

 

[Kierrin8976]

PS4: 120 million
Xbox One: 45 million
Switch: 80 million

 

[mutantmagnet]

X One 38mil
Xbox X 4mil


ps4 90mil
ps pro 8mil
ps vr 4mil

Switch classic 80
Switch plus 25
Switch micro 40

 

[UltraMagnus]

PS4 - 115 million

XBox One - 50 million

Switch - 100 million

Nintendo will release a "Switch Pro" (400 GF portable, 1TFLOP docked) in a couple of years that can handle straight up PS4/XB1 ports and reposition the current Switch (at 14nm for better battery) as a lower end model.

I think Nintendo doesn't want to let go of the 2 hardware profit streams ... it makes them too much money, but they do want the unified library, this is kind of a way of cheating that (games would largely work on both Switch models).

 

[Deleted member 82]

Also, just to throw a wrench into the whole thing: I don't exactly see how comparing Switch sales to PS4/XBO or even 3DS sales, considering the Switch is arguably an early-9th gen (or "so-late-into-G8-it's-not-even-fair") system. It makes much more sense to pit the PS4 and XBO against the Wii U. Even if that system is all but dead now.

By the time the XBO/PS4 stop selling and are replaced by their successors, chances are the Switch will still be alive and kicking.

[EDIT] But then, in fairness, we can't exactly predict the sales of the PS5 and Xbox Two when we don't even know what they're like, what games they'll have and when they're coming out :p.

 

[ZER0]

Ps4 110 million
Xbox one 60 million
Switch 100 million

 

[Deleted member 9971]

Xbox One: 55M 60M max
Unless they fix their first party drought issue i don't see a major increase in sales.
They had a huge advantage last gen because sony started really awfull with the more expensive price. That and other factors like actually briging out fantastic games steadily and best online service are why they were so succesfull with the 360.

Switch: 75-85m
If Nintendo keeps delivering amazing games like now + the amazing marketing campaign up and reduce the price at the right times + make game bundles soon then i could see it easily pass the 50m+ mark it helps that the system is just so neatly designed and that it is a hybrid.

PS4: 100M+ my guess 115M
Nothing needs to be said really the PS4 is the market leader and the games keep coming like a train.

3DS: 75m wich is pretty nice in the declining handheld gaming market.
While sure half of DS sales it's still pretty darn good in the age of Smartphones. I think it's possible to reach this number before all production ends for good. Mostly thanks to Pokemon.

Edited some info in.

 

[Inuhanyou]

PS4 120m+ there's no stopping this train if Sony doesn't retire it anytime soon. the amount of games and the price factor is really great.

Switch 70m+ Switch will absolutely be a success because of Japan and elsewhere, and their momentum is much higher than XB1 IMO, however Nintendo will retire the switch before it can get any further if we're talking 12 to 14 million units a year.

3DS 75m

XBO- 55-60m i don't want to be a negative nancy, but we don't even have sales of the current XB1 right now, and XB1X is only going to do a limited amount of draw for those looking to upgrade. This is an optimistic take, with less optimistic being maybe a subtraction of 5 mill or so.

 

[Metal Gear Miyamoto]

See all you naysayers at the end of the Switch's lifecycle! Either way there's some crow to eaten.

 

[MisterR]

PS4: 120 M
Switch: 75 M
Xbox: 52M

 

[MisterR]

Correct me if I am wrong, is the Switch not performing exceptionally strongly worldwide at the moment, with no obvious weak territories?

Click to shrink...

It's weak in the UK. Not sure how it's doing in Europe outside France.

 

[WestEgg]

PS4: 118 million. I expect 2017 to be its peak year, but it will still do 15 million next year and stay strong until 2020 when the PS5 comes out. The software will slow down in 2019 as development focuses on the next generation.

Xbox One: 70 million. I honestly think the Xbox will limp its way to respectable LTD numbers by the end of the generation, and that the One X is slightly underestimated, particularly for its appeal to the enthusiast crowd.

Nintendo Switch: 110 million (+) I do not think FY 2017 will be the best year for the Switch, and it has better days still ahead. If it sells 15 million (18 million total) in its first year, (I'm assuming the 14 million is slightly conservative), it can improve those numbers as the library gets even better and word of mouth grows. But Pokémon is going to drive it to gangbusters level if game freak can pull it off. The Pokémon crowd is still huge, and I've seen first hand it's alive and well among children. The Switch will be a great platform to jump back into the series for everyone that skipped the 3DS.

3DS: 75 million because I honestly don't know but it seems like a popular answer.

 

[skullwaker]

PS4: 110m - The standard for the gen. It has the lion's share of support from third parties and is basically the default platform, with a wealth of exclusives to boot. I think it will outsell the PS1 but won't reach the PS2.
XB1: 50m - Stumbled out of the gate and seemed to pick up a bit around the XB1S launch, but I don't think the XB1X will have quite the same effect. Still a good result, but not extraordinary.
3DS: 75m - Also released with a whimper until its first price drop. Pokemon Sun/Moon gave it new life and it's had a pretty good lineup this year, but I think 2018 will see a sharp decline unless Nintendo has relevant titles lined up and another price drop. Half the sales of the DS, but in the age of smart phones, I don't think it's too shabby.
Switch: 100m - This one is really too early to call, but I think we could see this system outsell the Wii. I think it will have more significant third party support than previous Nintendo consoles and it will be the dominant system in Japan for a while, unlike the Wii which took a back seat to the DS and PSP. Since all of Nintendo's first party efforts are consolidated onto one system for the first time in many years, there should be a wealth of quality exclusives and minimum droughts. Plus Pokemon.

 

[Deku]

Xbox One: 55 M - It will probably get a boost from the OneX, but I doubt it will challenge too much of the mindshare. I'm wondering if they'll bother with a next console.

3DS: 80 M - It's on it's way out. The 2DS has made it very cheap and it will have a good holiday season. Nintendo probably won't release anymore big budget titles, but they will keep on pushing it until they can make a cheaper version of the Switch.

PS4: 115 M - The current market leader. It will sell very well for the next 3 years. PS5 will probably come out in 2020 or 2021, especially if the Xbox withdraws.

Switch: 116 M - The hardest the predict. I think there'll be a few iterations (Lite Switch, Switch Plus, New Lite Switch Plus, etc.). I think the generation line will be very blurry by the time there's going to be a Switch 2. When it becomes cheaper, more people will probably buy more than one per household. I think it will also have more penetration in Asian markets.

 

[Deleted member 18161]

PS4 - 105 million.
Switch - 80 million.
Xbox One - 60 million.

 

[Deleted member 249]

It's weak in the UK. Not sure how it's doing in Europe outside France.

Click to shrink...

I'm not sure I'd use the word 'weak' as much as I would 'relatively weak'; it's not doing as well there as in France, Germany, or Spain, but it's still doing well.

 

[Tartan91]

Current sale Number would be usefull, btw
Ps4 105m
Xbox 65m
Switch 80m

 

[vereor]

Switch 135m
PS4 110m
Xbox One 55m

 

[Expy]

PS4: 115M
XBO: 51M
Switch: 73M

 

[Red Cadet 015]

PS4 will probably be north of 100 million, though it's still possible Sony and MS could choose to extend this generation to 10 years. A 10 year gen would allow MS a chance to actually catch up with the One if it's aggressively price dropped.

If the Switch manages to find it's way to Gameboy style success, it could stay relevant for 10 years too, though I expect Nintendo to do a refresh in 5 years (Super Switch?) that permits a new system (of the Switch's ilk) that can match the PS4 base or even the Pro pound for pound.

Edit: if we count the switch and super switch as the system, I could see it selling well over 100 mil.

 

[JomanC137]

PS4: 110M
Switch: 100M
XB1: 50M

 

[Peek-a-boo!]

Current sale numbers would be useful, BTW.

Click to shrink...

• As of September 2017, over 67.5 million PlayStaion 4 have been sold.
• According to this sales data webpage, 7.63 million Nintendo Switch have been sold thus far.
• A very rough estimate for the Xbox One would be a little below or a shy over 30 million, the latter of which - unless I am mistaken? - has been down YoY every single month, in its biggest market, going by the monthly NPD reports.

 

[ika]

3DS: 75-80 million
PS4: 100-110 million
XB1: 50-55 million
NSW: 90-120 million

There are big gaps because I think the final sales will depend on if Nintendo supports 3DS with new games the next year or two, if Switch continues to be a mega hit and forces Sony and MS to release new machines early, and if Nintendo don't make some big mistake on Switch strategies.

Switch will probably have some revisions and some price drops that will help with sales. If marketing, game variety, third party partnerships and release schedule remains as good, they'll sell better than 3DS and Wii, IMO.

 

[Sander VF]

• According to this sales data webpage, 7.63 million Nintendo Switch have been sold thus far.

Click to shrink...

It's worth noting that this data is also as of September 2017.

 

[Tartan91]

• As of September 2017, over 67.5 million PlayStaion 4 have been sold.
• According to this sales data webpage, 7.63 million Nintendo Switch have been sold thus far.
• A very rough estimate for the Xbox One would be a little below or a shy over 30 million, the latter of which - unless I am mistaken? - has been down YoY every single month, in its biggest market, going by the monthly NPD reports.

Click to shrink...

Ty! Op can add this numbers to First post!!

 

[Ayra Sutoraifu]

Ps4 134m
Xbox One: Players pressed X 300 million times

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:D yeah, ms are never going to release numbers.

 

[oldsnakeonline]

PS4 : 155 million (The new king)
Xbox one : 60 million
Nintendo Switch : 50 million
3DS : 70 million

Edit:
PSVR : 5 million

 

[fiendcode]

PS4: 116m
NSW: 103m
XBO: 58m
3DS: 76m

*bonus*

PSV: 15m
WU: 14m

 

[Edigar]

3DS - 76M

PS4/PS4 Slim - 100M
PS4 Pro - 30M

Xbox One/S - 45M
Xbox One X - 25M

Switch - 100M

 

[Jon Carter]

3DS: 75 million
PS4: 120 million
Xbox One: 60 million
Switch: 85 million

I think some people are setting themselves up for disappointment with the Switch because of this year's much-deserved hype. Its first year was unusually strong for a new system, thanks in large part to not many people owning a Wii U, so getting games like Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe in its first and second month for non-Wii U owners is pretty crazy. But because of those unusual circumstances, I don't think the system will have a much higher peak than its first year, unlike most other systems. A similar thing happened with 3DS in Japan.

 

[Soony Xbone Uhh]

• As of September 2017, over 67.5 million PlayStaion 4 have been sold.
• According to this sales data webpage, 7.63 million Nintendo Switch have been sold thus far.
• A very rough estimate for the Xbox One would be a little below or a shy over 30 million, the latter of which - unless I am mistaken? - has been down YoY every single month, in its biggest market, going by the monthly NPD reports.

Click to shrink...

Not every single month:
Jan: up 20% YoY
Feb: down 13% YoY
Mar: flat YoY (up 1%)
Apr: down 34.5% YoY (2016 was the QB release and white Xbox One Bundle - hence the big decline. Sony had a similar one in May due to UC4 the year before)
May: flat YoY (up 2%)

overall that period: down 7%


the big decline started in June
June: down 27.5% YoY
July: down ~28% YoY
Aug: down ~58% YoY
Sep: down ~46% YoY

 

[silva1991]

PS4 100-110M
Switch 70-80M
XboxOne 55-60M

 

[The Almighty Tria]

As a huge Nintendo fan, I think people are waaaayy overestimating the sales of the Switch. I'm guessing around 60 million, which would be huge for Nintendo.

 

[ethomaz]

PS4 130m
XB1 45m
Switch ? (I need more time to have an estimation)

 

[Deleted member 5727]

PS4 110 million
Switch 80 million
Xbox One 50 million

 

[rzmunch]

PS4 110 million
Switch 100 Million
Xbox One 60 Million
3DS 75 Million

 

[TheMisterManGuy]

I think some people are setting themselves up for disappointment with the Switch because of this year's much-deserved hype. Its first year was unusually strong for a new system, thanks in large part to not many people owning a Wii U, so getting games like Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe in its first and second month for non-Wii U owners is pretty crazy. But because of those unusual circumstances, I don't think the system will have a much higher peak than its first year, unlike most other systems. A similar thing happened with 3DS in Japan.

Click to shrink...

The problem with conservative predictions like this is that there's nothing stopping the Switch from reaching 100+ million units. It's already got a simple hook with universal and timeless appeal, and it's got the games to keep it going. As long as Nintendo can keep the momentum up, and broaden the appeal of the console, it can surpass the Wii and maybe even the DS easily.

 

[JomanC137]

If the DS, 3DS and Wii are something to go by, Nintendo is not even close to getting started with Software, I'm not sure why some people are low-balling the Switch

 

[xICHIGOx]

PS4: 115 million
Xbox 1: 48 million
Switch: 103 million
Nintendo 3DS: 74 million

Click to shrink...

PS4 is the king of this gen, huge marketing deal, a fair price point and the first party lineup is insane.

Xbox 1 is a huge step back from 360 and without the advantage of being first on the market they doesn't have the appeal to do big number, now with every major title playable on PC i think that the xbox brand can even become irrelevant for MS and they will try to shift their audience on PC and make xbox a service instead of a hardware platform.

Switch is attracting two classical nintendo audience in one single place but i think that every nintendo consoles except the DS died very fast and usually they stop selling early than the competitor.

The 3DS is slowing down at a huge rate and is on sale with a casual price point, so in 1 or 2 year it will be discontinued.

 

[Phendrana]

PS4 - 110 million
X1 - 50 million
Switch - 65 million
3DS - 75 million

I think the Switch launching so late in the generation will end up limiting how high it can go in the long-term. People that could be convinced to jump aboard in a few years time may start looking to the PS5 and Xbox 6 instead.

It's also going to be interesting to see how they make the system more attractive for parents to buy for their children. Families could get the kids a 3DS each a couple of years after launch for a reasonable price. It's going to take a long time before the Switch can hit an acceptable price point for that, if ever.

 

[Atheerios]

3DS: 75 M
PS4: 105 M
XOne: 45 M
Switch: 75 M

Switch will sell a lot thanks to its inevitable cheaper revision. Also Pokémon. Pokémon will sell lots of sytems.

However, PS5 and Xbox 2 will definitely shorten the Switch lifespan.

 

[PunkMilitia]

I think we have had these threads before, but we have also not had one in a while now, none on this board, and definitely not one since the state of the market changed and shifted significantly over the last year or so. So I figured, let's do another one of these: how much do you expect the four currently active systems on the market to sell over their lifetimes?

I'll start us off:

PS4: 119 million (of which ~25 million will be PS4 Pro)
Xbox One: 55 million (of which 18 million will be Xbox One S, and 8 million will be Xbox One X)
Nintendo Switch: 85 million
Nintendo 3DS: 75 million (of which 25 million will be New 3DS)

Click to shrink...

I'm feeling:
PS4(inc s+p) 120M
3DS 85M
Switch 80M
Xbox One(inc s+x) 65M

 

[Anas]

(2020-21) PS4: 130 million (Will Reach 100M by 2019)
(2023-24) Switch: 115 Million (15-20M x 6-5 Years )
(2020-21) Xbox One 65 Million (I think it's 30 million and something, and will reach 45 due the launch of X)

 

[gueras]

PS4 115-120mi (2020)
Switch 80-90mi (2022)
Xboxone 40-45mi (2020)

 

[Aerogamer]

I am assuming a 2020 launch for PS5, 2021 for the next Xbox and 2023 for the next Nintendo system.

PS4: 122.5 million by end of retailer shelf life, around 2022, will continue to sell well till PS5 comes out, bundles and sales continue.
Xbox One: 55.7 million by end of retailer shelf life, around 2022, steady pace, slight uptick with One X and holiday sales. (Assumes 31-33 million sold as of now)
Switch: Minimum: 65 million, Maximum: 105 million, hard to tell precise sales numbers yet.

 

[weekev]

PS4: 110 million
Xbox One: 45 million
Switch: 95 million
3DS: 76 million

Click to shrink...

This is pretty much what I think. PS4 and Switch have so much momentum and they have a lot of good exclusives lined up for the next 2 years with things like days gone, god of War and TLOU2 for PS4 with Metroid 4, Pokemon and the inevitable Animal Crossing Game plus whatever Retro and Platinum are cooking. Xbox One does not have momentum or a good line up of exclusives in its horizon unless MS pulls it's finger out.

 

[m29a]

I think most people are on the mark with everything but the Switch. It's not going to sell 100m+ imo. 70m seems more fair. The hype isn't going to last.

 

[MONSTER]

I think the Switch will last a long life and will see gradual upgrades like how it works for Apple's iPhone and iPad strategy.

I think this because Iwata was talking about tackling a new console launch with the problem of "starting all over again", so i think Switch will be a console that'll last long years and because of this i think it will sell 100M+

 

[Eslayer]

PS4: 100-110
Switch: 75-85
Xbox One: 55-60
3DS: 73-78

 

[Prototype Viktor]

PS4 111 million
Xbone 53 MAU

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Switch 77 million

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