How so? Again, nothing is stopping the Switch from reaching those 100m+ numbers, especially as Nintendo updates it on a software and hardware level.
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A New ERA: Predict the lifetime sales for the PS4, Xbox One, Nintendo Switch, and Nintendo 3DS
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
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PS4: 120M including PS4 Pro sales
Xbox One: 80M including X1 S & X1 X sales
Switch: 100M
3DS: 75M including 2DS-3DS/New 2DS-3DS
Xbox One: 80M including X1 S & X1 X sales
Switch: 100M
3DS: 75M including 2DS-3DS/New 2DS-3DS
"As long as Nintendo can keep the momentum up," yes. As long as Nintendo could have kept the momentum up, the Wii would have flown past the PS1 and outsold the PS2, and the 3DS would have outsold the DS. But they could not keep the momentum up.
Id say Pokemon + Animal Crossing, Smash Bros 5/Metroid Prime 4, 3DS third party support moving over, and revisions every couple years will keep the hype going for a while. Im not betting on 100+ million, but 70 million is the absolute floor to me. I dont think it will fall of like the 3DS did, and it'll get around 85 - 90 million, but we'll see.
The Wii's problem was that Nintendo did not evolve it fast enough, if at all. Which could tie into your point about not keeping it's momentum up, so you'd be right in that sense. The 3DS on the other hand fell short of the DS simply because is was a flawed and largely unattractive product to the modern mainstream. Honestly, it's a miracle it was able to sell nearly 70 million units worldwide to begin with. The Switch on the other hand was deliberately designed to last as long as possible, and it's a much more appealing and attractive product than the 3DS ever was. So Nintendo can easily keep up the success.
PS4: 123 Million
Switch:1=110 million
Xbox One= 62 million
Nintendo 3DS= 76 million
Above estimates predicated on all products being on sale for another 5 years
Switch:1=110 million
Xbox One= 62 million
Nintendo 3DS= 76 million
Above estimates predicated on all products being on sale for another 5 years
how is the switch different than the 3ds? it isn't attracting the casual the wii had and isn't attracting the AAA audience playing cod and star wars and battlefield every year. All the game Nintendo is going to release for the switch had already been done for the 3ds and the 3ds is going as low as 80$ with a game which the switch will probably never reach.
The Switch is also a console. It's a console in a way that the Vita failed to be with compromises that clearly made the games designed for it a handheld only experience. What happened with Uncharted Golden Abyss is a prime example of this failure to match console performance even though Sony hyped up that potential while only Nintendo actually achieved this with the Switch.
You don't seem to understand the appeal of the Switch at all do you? The Switch has a premise that has universal appeal. A home console that you can take with is both appealing to casual gamers who are typically intimidated by traditional home consoles, and more hardcore gamers who want to take a few of their favorite AAA games on the go. It's a simple concept, but one that's versatile and strong enough to justify the console in a post-smartphone world.
Plus, with the majority of Nintendo's developers now focused on one platform, there should be no shortage of first party content for the Switch each year. People are really underestimating the Switch here, and it's a shame. Because there's so much potential, and many reasons for it to reach 100m+.
This too. Sony's "Console quality on the go" shtick with the PSP and PS Vita was always a load of marketing bullshit. By the time the PS3 and PS4 arrived respectively, that narrative was quickly thrown out the window, as the handheld counterparts immediately fell a generation and a half behind compared to their console counterparts. Nothing against the PSP or Vita, they were good systems, but they were really just typical handhelds with a few games that vaguely resemble a home console, much like most handhelds at the time.
With the Switch, this isn't a handheld with Kinda-sorta-not-really home console games. It's a literal home console you can take with you. The hardware and software are strong enough to deliver an adequate home console experience, even when docked. Not only that, but the games were also designed to accommodate for mobile play as well. Sure you can binge BotW for hours on end, but you can also digest the game easily in smaller, 20 min. chunks and have just as much fun. Unlike the PSP or PS Vita where Sony tried to push games that were far too demanding and time consuming to be enjoyed in a mobile setting.
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The switch can't match ps4\xbox one either and isn't going to get 99% of 3rd party games, so? The switch is still mainly for people who wants to play nintendo games first. These few third party games are not the appeal of the console.
I already understand the concept. What I don't understand is who are these 100+ million people. People playing AAA games even of the few games available on the switch like fifa and nba let alone the tons of other games not available on the system didn't move to the switch. The ps4\xone\pc will still be the attraction for these people. The wii people are not interested in the switch. The switch is still for Nintendo fans and people interested in Japanese games. I still can't see a single evidence suggesting the switch has broaden the demographic significantly from the 3ds and is attracting aaa audiences.
The Switch already has like 50% of new 3rd party releases. They don't have the half of the games you actually care about but this is still year 1. The Switch can, and I'm betting will, get more than the 2% they already got thanks to Bethesda and Ubisoft.
A few are moving and some are waiting to adopt it. They like the idea of playing games on the go but from the ones who only play on PS4 or Xbox and not PC they are waiting to see if the Switch gets the same type of games they play on those platforms. When I bring up the performance issue it's not a concern for them because they don't think Switch games look bad at all and the portable factor is really cool to them.
The problem with your argument is this: 99% of 3rd Party games don't actually need the PS4's power. Really, only AAA games do. Pretty much everything else can technically run on Switch with some graphical compromises that most people don't care about. The Switch is knocking on the door at the line where the diminishing graphic returns are overwhelmed by the desire for other features (like portability). If this isn't true now, it will certainly be true with a Switch 2 (which I hope is called "Super Switch" lol).
You mean including indie or just aaa? if you mean aaa then it's not even close to 50%.
I'm yet to see one person who bought the switch to play 3rd party games mainly on it. People buying the switch but it to play botw, mario, splatoon and mario cart 8. This might change the feature but looking at games like fifa sales on the switch I can't see how this's happening.
Well yeah, it's no Xbox One. It's more or less a tablet, there are limits to what it can and can't run. But to say that it won't get 99% third party games is hyperbolic to say the least. While it's not as powerful as it's contemporaries, the Switch is powerful enough to receive many PS4 or Xbox One ports with the right optimization. Bethesda is already setting standards on what the Switch actually capable of with Doom and New Colossus. As long as both hardware and software sales remain strong, nothing is stopping developers from bring their games to Switch, so long as the Switch can run it of course.
NBA2k actually did quite well on Switch from what I've heard, as did many other third party titles so far. The draw of the Switch is that it's a portable home console. Believe it or not, there's a large audience of core gamers who would like to play some of their favorite AAA and indie games on the go when away from their PS4, Xbox One, or PC, as evidenced by the relatively recent wave of Android and Windows tablets with Slide on controllers and PC ports. The Switch is the first mainstream console to actually even begin to do a competent job filling this niche. Sure, it can't get every game for reasons I stated before. But so long as it can run the game, the Switch has huge appeal to gamers and developers in this regard.
For casual gamers, everything about the Switch was designed to make the home console experience friendlier and more approachable to those put off by it, and/or largely familiar with Smartphone games. Because you can take it with you, it lets casual gamers enjoy a home console game at their own pace, without having to try and find time for 5 hour binge sessions in front of a TV. The Joy-Con also eases them into the idea of a console controller, thanks to it's simplicity and modular nature. You can pass a friend a Joy-Con, and enjoy a game of Mario Kart, Snipperclips, or Street Fighter, without them having to worry about some complicated control scheme. And most Switch games have been designed to accommodate mobile play as well. That way you can easily enjoy a home console experience in just 20 minutes or less.
So yeah, the Switch is in nowhere near the same league as the 3DS. It's an ingeniously designed and carefully crafted product. That solves so many problems with, and fills so many holes in the traditional console model in just a couple swift strikes. It's not built on fads or trends, it doesn't have to try to be cool, or bad ass. It's simple, honest, and has a a universal appeal that can actually withstand the test of time.
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The 3DS never had much hype post launch and it's going to end up selling close to 75 million units.
Even if Switch's hype dies down next year (it won't), it's going to easily outsell 3DS, unless Nintendo introduces a successor much earlier than expected.
Launch aligned, It's selling better at $299 than 3DS did at $249 and the holidays will likely show that Switch is also selling better at $299 than 3DS did at $169.
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It depends on what happens to price of entry-level PS4 - if it hits sub 150 like PS1/PS2 did, it could match their trajectory (both did additional 30+M after their successor hit the market).
I think there are too many variables to make any kind of reasonable estimate, so I am going to eliminate some. I don't know how long current generation sales will last, what type of hardware iterations are coming, or whether they should be counted with current gen sales, so I will cut my predictions off at Dec 31, 2020.
LTD sales, Dec 31, 2020
PS4: 111M
XB1: 65M
NSW: 90M
PS4 sales have been very strong, and should continue to be. However, I think that this year is the peak and that we will begin to see a substatial decline from this point on. An early announcement of new hardware could drive sales lower, while a major breakout in emerging markets could drive sales higher.
70M by end of 2017
17M 2018
14M 2019
10M 2020
XB1 has been relatively weak, but there could be some increased strength going forward. I think the 1X will have a bigger impact than many suspect. It is a very attractive, well made piece of hardware. It provides a much more substatial upgrade to purchasers than the PS4 Pro did. I think it will appeal to core gamers, which in turn will give some exposure to the ecosystem and stave of its apparent sales collapse. This will not be enough to make the XBox a contender to win the generation.
35M by end of 2017
12M 2018
10M 2019
8M 2020
NSW looks poised to be a monster success. Obviously its first holiday season hasn't come yet, and we will have a much better idea where things will stand after Nintendo gives us earnings for this year and an outline of next year's lineup. I've seen a lot of improbably low, 50-60M lifetime (even 40M!) predictions for Switch, so I am going to stake out the optimistic ground a bit. The obvious pitfalls for Nintendo, which could cause sales to be much lower, are failing to keep up a steady launch cycle, failing to meet production demands, or failing to meet fan expectations with Pokemon for Switch.
15M by end of 2017
20M 2018
30M 2019 (Yes, best console year ever.)
25M 2020
LTD sales, Dec 31, 2020
PS4: 111M
XB1: 65M
NSW: 90M
PS4 sales have been very strong, and should continue to be. However, I think that this year is the peak and that we will begin to see a substatial decline from this point on. An early announcement of new hardware could drive sales lower, while a major breakout in emerging markets could drive sales higher.
70M by end of 2017
17M 2018
14M 2019
10M 2020
XB1 has been relatively weak, but there could be some increased strength going forward. I think the 1X will have a bigger impact than many suspect. It is a very attractive, well made piece of hardware. It provides a much more substatial upgrade to purchasers than the PS4 Pro did. I think it will appeal to core gamers, which in turn will give some exposure to the ecosystem and stave of its apparent sales collapse. This will not be enough to make the XBox a contender to win the generation.
35M by end of 2017
12M 2018
10M 2019
8M 2020
NSW looks poised to be a monster success. Obviously its first holiday season hasn't come yet, and we will have a much better idea where things will stand after Nintendo gives us earnings for this year and an outline of next year's lineup. I've seen a lot of improbably low, 50-60M lifetime (even 40M!) predictions for Switch, so I am going to stake out the optimistic ground a bit. The obvious pitfalls for Nintendo, which could cause sales to be much lower, are failing to keep up a steady launch cycle, failing to meet production demands, or failing to meet fan expectations with Pokemon for Switch.
15M by end of 2017
20M 2018
30M 2019 (Yes, best console year ever.)
25M 2020
As you say too many variables - but I think a big part of how the falloff curve looks like will depend on how low the prices reach on base consoles. By 2020 there could be an Ultra Slim PS4 for 129$ or even less, but it's unclear whether Sony would even want to go there (though they are certainly better positioned for it than they were with PS3). Same applies to XB IMO, though MS may actually have other reasons to stay away from lower priced tiers.
Didn't NDS do something like that in its best year? Sure, handheld - but prior to that I don't recall anything touching PS2 best year, not even GBA.
So Nomura Securities just said their predictions for sales of the Switch until March 2023, as reported by Takashi Mochizuki: https://twitter.com/mochi_wsj/status/927762184586661888
115.8 M by then, with 23 M selling next fiscal year. Right around my ballpark of 114.2 M
115.8 M by then, with 23 M selling next fiscal year. Right around my ballpark of 114.2 M
Reaching waaaay back for this one, but I think it's fair to take another look at this now. We have hit the end of the generation more or less, although it does make things a bit awkward that the Switch doesn't line up with the other console lifespans.
Correct any mistakes I make, but it looks like we have the following numbers.
PS4 - Sitting at about 115M, with the likelihood of coasting a few million more over the next year or two. It should end somewhere short of 120M.
XB1 - Concrete numbers are harder to come by, but it looks like this will probably end just above 50M.
3DS - Sliding in to home with 76M. Good for you, old friend.
NSW - Sitting at 80M as of the end of 2020. Where will it stop? Nobody knows. I think 2021 will give us a much better idea of that.
Looking through the thread, there are some pretty good estimates in there! Also some not so good guesses.
So, how do I think I did? Let's break it down.
I think the end of 2020 was a good place to measure from. I give myself 1 merit point for realizing that in 2017.
PS4 - My total numbers weren't too far off, but the yearly breakdown was a lot worse. Sony held very strong sales late into PS4's life with a lineup of incredible exclusives, which left overall sales higher than expected. However, the PS4 was also taken out back and shot a lot faster than previous Sony platforms. 2020 was weird. I don't know if PS4 sales would have been higher or lower without the global pandemic.
For PS4, I rate myself 'pretty good.'
XB1 - I was way off here. I really thought that the One X was going to revitalize the platform and that it would see its strongest years at the end of its life, like 360 did. That just didn't happen. Microsoft stayed pretty consistent through the generation and ended with the same middling sales they started with.
For XB1, my mark is Unsatisfactory.
3DS - Things were pretty clear when OP was written. 3DS was already at the end of its life, and it limped along for a couple years after. I didn't make a 3DS prediction.
For 3DS, I receive an A+. The only way to win is not to play.
NSW - Ooooh, boy. I'm the only one in this thread who can be definitively said to have overestimated Switch sales. I was trying to stake out the optimistic ground, though, so I will give myself a bit of a pass on that. My numbers assumed that we would get a very compelling Pokemon game at the end of 2018 which would drive strong sales. I also assumed that we would continue to see a strong and constant software slate like we did in 2017. Both of those were wrong, and sales reflect that fact.
For NSW, I will take an E for Effort.
Overall, I rate my guess as 2.22... out of 3 stars.
Correct any mistakes I make, but it looks like we have the following numbers.
PS4 - Sitting at about 115M, with the likelihood of coasting a few million more over the next year or two. It should end somewhere short of 120M.
XB1 - Concrete numbers are harder to come by, but it looks like this will probably end just above 50M.
3DS - Sliding in to home with 76M. Good for you, old friend.
NSW - Sitting at 80M as of the end of 2020. Where will it stop? Nobody knows. I think 2021 will give us a much better idea of that.
Looking through the thread, there are some pretty good estimates in there! Also some not so good guesses.
So, how do I think I did? Let's break it down.
I think the end of 2020 was a good place to measure from. I give myself 1 merit point for realizing that in 2017.
PS4 - My total numbers weren't too far off, but the yearly breakdown was a lot worse. Sony held very strong sales late into PS4's life with a lineup of incredible exclusives, which left overall sales higher than expected. However, the PS4 was also taken out back and shot a lot faster than previous Sony platforms. 2020 was weird. I don't know if PS4 sales would have been higher or lower without the global pandemic.
For PS4, I rate myself 'pretty good.'
XB1 - I was way off here. I really thought that the One X was going to revitalize the platform and that it would see its strongest years at the end of its life, like 360 did. That just didn't happen. Microsoft stayed pretty consistent through the generation and ended with the same middling sales they started with.
For XB1, my mark is Unsatisfactory.
3DS - Things were pretty clear when OP was written. 3DS was already at the end of its life, and it limped along for a couple years after. I didn't make a 3DS prediction.
For 3DS, I receive an A+. The only way to win is not to play.
NSW - Ooooh, boy. I'm the only one in this thread who can be definitively said to have overestimated Switch sales. I was trying to stake out the optimistic ground, though, so I will give myself a bit of a pass on that. My numbers assumed that we would get a very compelling Pokemon game at the end of 2018 which would drive strong sales. I also assumed that we would continue to see a strong and constant software slate like we did in 2017. Both of those were wrong, and sales reflect that fact.
For NSW, I will take an E for Effort.
Overall, I rate my guess as 2.22... out of 3 stars.
Hmmm I nailed the 3DS, lowballed the PS4 and the Switch, and somehow the one I overestimated was the Xbox lol!
It's always fun to look back on predictions
Right? 2017 wasn't that long ago but it feels like an eternity
User banned (permanent): alt account
Not too bad. Interesting stuff in here, Switch was just over 6 months on the market. I wasn't sure that it would be the success that it is today back in 2017.
Might as well revisit my predictions since this thread was bumped:
Xbox One: I think this estimate was pretty solid, even though the actual number fell short in the end. PUBG did move some units, albeit not becoming as much of an evergreen title as I was expecting. The battle-royale market changed drastically. We'll see if Microsoft will be able to surpass the Xbox One family with the Xbox Series family.
Switch: Thought I was being somewhat bold with my original prediction, but I saw some great potential for the Switch. Didn't expect to be adjusting my prediction upward, but since 100 million will be passed easily I'll revise my prediction to 120 million. May even have to shoot higher, as the Switch just keeps breaking record.
3DS: Estimate was pretty solid. 3DS was phased out as quickly as I expected. Overall the handheld did some nice numbers, but consumers moved on to Switch pretty quick.
Playstation 4: already passed the 110 million marker. When I made the original post I was under the expectation that the PS5 was launching sooner, so now the PS4 will likely taper off a bit above 120 million when all is said and done. Sony delivered the goods.
Xbox One: I think this estimate was pretty solid, even though the actual number fell short in the end. PUBG did move some units, albeit not becoming as much of an evergreen title as I was expecting. The battle-royale market changed drastically. We'll see if Microsoft will be able to surpass the Xbox One family with the Xbox Series family.
Switch: Thought I was being somewhat bold with my original prediction, but I saw some great potential for the Switch. Didn't expect to be adjusting my prediction upward, but since 100 million will be passed easily I'll revise my prediction to 120 million. May even have to shoot higher, as the Switch just keeps breaking record.
3DS: Estimate was pretty solid. 3DS was phased out as quickly as I expected. Overall the handheld did some nice numbers, but consumers moved on to Switch pretty quick.
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This post aged well. 😂
Japan is that strong. They just don't give a shit about Sony.
Did you just reveal yourself as an alt or is there another reason you quoted that specific banned user with this type of language?
On topic this is pretty interesting too look at just for the Switch takes. Wild how it's sold.
I forgot this existed but I'm going to get pretty close with my own prediction :)
Your NSW prediction was very ambitious regardless of the actual software scheduled.
Launch aligned (by quarter) only DS is ahead of NSW:
Who would have seriously thought that the Switch would actually have a chance to sell that much lol.
That's a pretty good take for something that was posted in late 2017. Especially the final point about revisions and price cuts for Switch vs. 3DS stands out.
The margin of error on the PS4, Xbox One and 3DS predictions is very small. The Switch number is obviously far from clear at this point, because the platform still has a long life ahead of it, unlike the last generation systems which either have been already discontinued or are on the brink of discontinuation.
XB1 was a slight over estimate, but only a little. I completely forgot why I thought Xbox would be a 2021 launch but I think it was not expecting them to replace the One X so fast.
PS4 is sadly not going to happen. Was not expecting such a fast death and it won't even hit 120M.
Let it be known I predicted Switch would sell gangbusters when Animal Crossing launched.
Plenty of users in here only thought Switch would sell around 60 million. K. Samedi's prediction is actually more reasonable than many users, considering Switch is on track to sell around 120 million units.
Interesting to see how the DS tracked behind all others the first two years before the DS Lite released.Your NSW prediction was very ambitious regardless of the actual software scheduled.
Launch aligned (by quarter) only DS is ahead of NSW:
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