Nintendo has more or less merged their console and handheld business with the Switch so the system is really performing for replacing 2 systems.
The 3DS is also fading away much faster than expected. (I don't think the Pokemon game will boost 3DS hardware sales much this year).
The Switch launched in March, not typically a time for children to get gifts. So by Christmas with Splatoon 2, Mario, Zelda etc. out there the demand must be astronomical. I mean, the 3DS ran toe to toe with PS4/Xbox One for the past years during the holidays and even exceeded them a few times as prices kept dropping and had none of the buzz behind it that the Switch does. It was just the go-to Nintendo machine because the Wii U flopped.
I'd honestly be surprised if Nintendo didn't take the holiday season crown on hardware as their business relies on it far more than their competitors. Nintendo might also benefit from the EA Wilson Loot-boxes headlines because when picking up what their kids wanted (Disney / Star Wars / Nintendo) Nintendo probably won out for a lot of parents because of the gambling thing. Now software is a different thing especially in units and maybe even revenue. As there seem to be a lot of great deals for popular games and all Nintendo's offerings are full price.
To Nintendo's surprise most Switch owners use it in handheld mode vs TV docked mode, which means that we're looking at a 1 per family member device vs. a 1 per family device.
If you have two kids, you'll likely get two Switches and/or one PS4.
A $199 PS4 is as really great deal but I don't think price has held people back from buying it vs. the Switch. It probably helps Sony a lot to keep Microsoft at bay who just introduced a new $499 console that plays the same multi platform games.
Where I live the stores were doing the exact opposite, offering a very cheap Xbox One vs. the far more popular but expensive PS4 and Switch.
- 177 euro Xbox One S Minecraft bundle
But it doesn't matter how cheap they come if Microsoft doesn't catch the same interest for Xbox as consumers seem have in Nintendo properties.
As of now Microsoft is also not weaponizing their Minecraft IP as an exclusive asset for Xbox but instead releases versions across all the platforms of the same game.
VR isn't taking off in the consumer space yet, so the Switch has all the cards of the 'new holiday gadget' by default.
As far as other competitors are concerned, well Apple completely shit the bed with iPad gaming and moved their focus to designers and businesses instead with the iPad pro.
In the Android tablet sphere nothing of note has happened. So the gaming tablet market is literally Nintendo's for the taking with the Switch as well.
They have no competition there but they do have a very competitive product in that space. Apple has also designed their products and ecosystems that bi-yearly upgrades are pretty much needed.
I don't think many people will upgrade iPads bought during the tablet-craze anytime soon, especially if the kids wanted them for Netflix and gaming.
If Nintendo really wants to corner the market and go from a 70% to a 80% share they should try get the first year exclusive in the gaming space of the Disney streaming service.
Right now from the perspective of the average consumer they're selling a console+handheld+tablet rolled into one. Which at $299 is a great value proposition.
