Ampere Analysis: Console sales Q1 2021: Switch sell-through increases year-on-year, PS5 outsells Xbox Series X|S 2 to 1

[Welfare]

As a sequel to this thread, Ampere has released their Q1 sell through estimates.

What they have for Q1 2021 (January through March)

Switch: 5.86M (+12% Year over Year)
PS5: 2.83M
Xbox Series: 1.31M

Using their Q4 2020 numbers they would estimate PS5 at 7.24M and XBS at 4.1M as of March 2021.

PS4 hit 7M sold through April 6, 2014 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...ass-70-million-units-worldwide-255558241.html

Link to article: https://www.ampereanalysis.com/insi...ncreases-year-on-year-ps5-outsells-xbox-serie

Commentary from me: PS5 lines up with PS4 just as it does in shipments. PS4 shipped 7.6M in the first 2 quarters and PS5 is at 7.8M

Xbox also lines up with the estimates that it should have shipped somewhere between 1M and 1.5M going by Microsoft's Gaming revenue statements.

 

[Sems4arsenal]

While I think long term the 2:1 ratio will happen. As of now, it's a race to produce.

 

[Toriko]

How much was XBS until April 2014? I guess these numbers indicate XBS supply is down compared to Xbox one in the same time frame?

 

[Toumari]

2:1 ratio is about inline with what happened last gen so no surprise there.

Although with that said, I'm surprised this is the case already considering both consoles basically sell what they can make? Is Microsoft really only making half of what Sony is?

 

[Stacey]

Xbox Series S has had continuous stock these past couple of months (here in the UK) no one wants them or they're easier to produce?

 

[Aostia82]

it's good to see the entire market (three competitors) being so healthy/succesfull

 

[m051293]

Related, Nintendo confirmed that NSW sell-through this past quarter was the best they've ever had for any device in the Jan-Mar period. It was mentioned in the Q&A.

 

[RailWays]

Curious how Switch Q2 matches up YoY. I think if it still perform higher then another record year should be on the books (assuming they have the stock)

 

[DvdGzz]

While I think long term the 2:1 ratio will happen. As of now, it's a race to produce.

Click to shrink...

Bethesda and Game Pass' value snowballing will have done nothing for MS if this happens. Even the Ps4 isn't 2:1 over Xbox One. I doubt it will get worse this generation.

Edit: never mind, looks like PS4 is above 100 mil? I googled and got an older number of 91 mil.

 

[Deleted member 34788]

Xbox Series S has had continuous stock these past couple of months (here in the UK) no one wants them or they're easier to produce?

Click to shrink...

Nobody wants one.


Big oooof at the xbox sales. Supposedly biggest launch ever.....and leads to the same status quo.


Who knew deemphasizing your OWN hardware to such an extent leads to being handily outsold by the other two? Not the millionaire execs who run the show at xbox, huh?

 

[Welfare]

How much was XBS until April 2014? I guess these numbers indicate XBS supply is down compared to Xbox one in the same time frame?

Click to shrink...

Nothing official but it should have been around the same ~4M. XBS is still behind XB1 in shipments but neck and neck in sell through.

2:1 ratio is about inline with what happened last gen so no surprise there.

Although with that said, I'm surprised this is the case already considering both consoles basically sell what they can make? Is Microsoft really only making half of what Sony is?

Click to shrink...

Yes. I suspect though Microsoft could get around this somewhat by producing more Series S. They can make more per wafer than the X. It's what happened in the UK this past month, and the US had seen a ton of Series S drops in April.

Xbox Series S has had continuous stock these past couple of months (here in the UK) no one wants them or they're easier to produce?

Click to shrink...

Going by this they actually do. Microsoft is just sending more of the S now.

 

[jroc74]

While I think long term the 2:1 ratio will happen. As of now, it's a race to produce.

Click to shrink...

Its just wild that the PS5 seems to go in stock damn near already sold out by the time the drop happens.

The last PS Direct lasted longer than usual tho, so there's hope for those trying to get a PS5 this year.

 

[LostCauseUnite!]

2:1 ratio is about inline with what happened last gen so no surprise there.

Although with that said, I'm surprised this is the case already considering both consoles basically sell what they can make? Is Microsoft really only making half of what Sony is?

Click to shrink...

not that they want to produce less, they started later while ps5 started earlier, so they really haven't produced as many.

 

[Sems4arsenal]

Bethesda and Game Pass' value snowballing will have done nothing for MS if this happens. Even the Ps4 isn't 2:1 over Xbox One. I doubt it will get worse this generation.

Edit: never mind, looks like PS4 is above 100 mil? I googled and got an older number of 91 mil.

Click to shrink...

The PS5's demand is significantly higher than the PS4 as of yet.

 

[jroc74]

Nothing official but it should have been around the same ~4M. XBS is still behind XB1 in shipments but neck and neck in sell through.


Yes. I suspect though Microsoft could get around this somewhat by producing more Series S. They can make more per wafer than the X.


Going by this they actually do. Microsoft is just sending more of the S now.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, just noticing in other regions how the XSX and XSS split is damn near even.

Again, its wild that outside North America the PS5 DE sells more than the Series consoles combined damn near everywhere.

 

[Tora]

I'm still so conflicted on the Series S

Would have preferred if MS took Sony's approach of a £359 digital SKU, though that price was likely influenced by the S existing in the first place

 

[Toriko]

Bethesda and Game Pass' value snowballing will have done nothing for MS if this happens. Even the Ps4 isn't 2:1 over Xbox One. I doubt it will get worse this generation.

Edit: never mind, looks like PS4 is above 100 mil? I googled and got an older number of 91 mil.

Click to shrink...

PS4 is at 116 million now.

 

[Xevross]

Seems about right but I would have thought PS5 would have a less than 800k gap between shipments and sell-through, especially considering there was a big drop in sell-through in April.

Xbox Series S has had continuous stock these past couple of months (here in the UK) no one wants them or they're easier to produce?

Click to shrink...

This one is an interesting question for me, I'm waiting for the amazon monthly charts to update to see if the PS5, PS5d and XSX managed to sell more in minutes yesterday than the S did in 19 days of fully in stock.

 

[ghostcrew]

Xbox Series S has had continuous stock these past couple of months (here in the UK) no one wants them or they're easier to produce?

Click to shrink...

Series S outsold every console other than the Switch in the UK last month so fair to say they're producing more of them (seeing as Series X, PS5 are constantly selling 100% of their units)

 

[jroc74]

not that they want to produce less, they started later while ps5 started earlier, so they really haven't produced as many.

Click to shrink...

I think by now that is no longer the reason, and it was only off by a month or 2 at best. Its not like the PS5 had an entire year head start.

The PS5's demand is significantly higher than the PS4 as of yet.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, whew...lol. Still wonder how higher it could have been in a non Covid world.

 

[Dirtyshubb]

Bethesda and Game Pass' value snowballing will have done nothing for MS if this happens. Even the Ps4 isn't 2:1 over Xbox One. I doubt it will get worse this generation.

Edit: never mind, looks like PS4 is above 100 mil? I googled and got an older number of 91 mil.

Click to shrink...

PS4 is around 116m by now lifetime sales. Last I read, Xbox one is about 60 give or take so it's almost 2:1 difference.

 

[tapedeck]

I expect that ratio to narrow somewhat as MS attempts to get more Series X consoles made. Anecdotally that's the console my friends want, they have zero interest in the S. Who knows if MS has the capability to make enough X's to satisfy demand this year though. We know PS5's are able to be cranked out much faster.

 

[Deleted member 63122]

Seems about right but I would have thought PS5 would have a less than 800k gap between shipments and sell-through, especially considering there was a big drop in sell-through in April.



This one is an interesting question for me, I'm waiting for the amazon monthly charts to update to see if the PS5, PS5d and XSX managed to sell more in minutes yesterday than the S did in 19 days of fully in stock.

Click to shrink...

Quarter 1 is until March 31st. We have to wait until the Q2 analysis to factor in April.

 

[kc44135]

So, firstly I want to say I know nothing about sales, and I also don't care who "wins" in terms of sales. I just want to see all three doing well, which is why I wanted to ask if these numbers are good enough for Xbox? It just kinda concerns me a bit because they have made all these huge investments in Gamepass, acquisitions, etc. and they're basically just sitting where they were last gen, getting outsold 2:1 by the competition?

Like, nothing they're doing is having any impact at all? Is there any cause for concern at all with this for the brand? Like I said, I really don't care who "wins", I just don't want to see any of them doing poorly, but I don't really have the sales knowledge to interpret how good or bad these results are for MS so far?

 

[Xevross]

Quarter 1 is until March 31st. We have to wait until the Q2 analysis to factor in April.

Click to shrink...

Yes, I'm aware.

April had low sell-through for PS5 which indicates that at the end of March there can't have been a lot of units shipped but not yet sold-through, so I think this is an underestimate for PS5.

 

[Welfare]

Yeah, just noticing in other regions how the XSX and XSS split is damn near even.

Again, its wild that outside North America the PS5 DE sells more than the Series consoles combined damn near everywhere.

Click to shrink...

A big problem for Xbox (and Sony) is that in combination with the shortages, I bet they initially planned production to just match PS4/XB1 and would increase as it was shown that the new gen would be in higher demand.

It would be why initial sales so far practically mirror last gen. I suspect Xbox could have done ~4M shipped in 2020 had production not been delayed, matching Xbox One's 3.9M, and both Microsoft and Sony made sure to secure just enough units for the first half of 2021 so they could match XB1/PS4 2014 at the very least.

Then the pandemic happens and both are finding it hard to secure more units because of the shortages.

 

[Welfare]

Yes, I'm aware.

April had low sell-through for PS5 which indicates that at the end of March there can't have been a lot of units shipped but not yet sold-through, so I think this is an underestimate for PS5.

Click to shrink...

NPD could have been really good. A good 300K - 400K in April would put a big dent in that 800K gap, plus the UK could have been uniquely bad compared to the rest of Europe.

 

[SilentEagle]

I wonder Xbox's sales when they release games like Halo Infinite, Starfield and etc.

PS is doing great. Amazing console.

 

[Welfare]

So, firstly I want to say I know nothing about sales, and I also don't care who "wins" in terms of sales. I just want to see all three doing well, which is why I wanted to ask if these numbers are good enough for Xbox? It just kinda concerns me a bit because they have made all these huge investments in Gamepass, acquisitions, etc. and they're basically just sitting where they were last gen, getting outsold 2:1 by the competition?

Like, nothing they're doing is having any impact at all? Is there any cause for concern at all with this for the brand? Like I said, I really don't care who "wins", I just don't want to see any of them doing poorly, but I don't really have the sales knowledge to interpret how good or bad these results are for MS so far?

Click to shrink...

Nothing they do can have an impact if they are sold out. This is a pure production limitation.

 

[Ryng™]

Wow that's amazing!
Switch sold 1.95 million in USA and 1.74 million in Japan which mean rest of the world is around 2.17 million.

Huuuuum that's actually lower than i expected but still a very solid performance, expecially the YOY increase. PS5 and XBS are doing good too.

 

[gothmog]

Bethesda and Game Pass' value snowballing will have done nothing for MS if this happens. Even the Ps4 isn't 2:1 over Xbox One. I doubt it will get worse this generation.

Edit: never mind, looks like PS4 is above 100 mil? I googled and got an older number of 91 mil.

Click to shrink...

I expect nothing to change until Xbox starts regularly releasing first party AAA games. The promise of Bethesda and GP only works on a subset of gamers.

I would buy a Series X if I found one by accident, but I won't be actively searching for one until we start seeing the marketing frenzy for something like a Halo or other high budget MGS titles. I'm personally hoping for a good E3 from Xbox as far as this year's roadmap. That will really help to build up the hype.

 

[BubblegumNemesis]

I wonder Xbox's sales when they release games like Halo Infinite, Starfield and etc.

PS is doing great. Amazing console.

Click to shrink...

Selling everything they can produce, software won't have any impact on that.

 

[MonadL]

Nobody wants one.


Big oooof at the xbox sales. Supposedly biggest launch ever.....and leads to the same status quo.


Who knew deemphasizing your OWN hardware to such an extent leads to being handily outsold by the other two? Not the millionaire execs who run the show at xbox, huh?

Click to shrink...

I mean in Series X case I'm sure it's literally because MS can't produce enough.

 

[Xevross]

NPD could have been really good. A good 300K - 400K in April would put a big dent in that 800K gap, plus the UK could have been uniquely bad compared to the rest of Europe.

Click to shrink...

Well that's a possibility, I don't think NPD will be that high but we'll see. We know Spain had a much lower month in April as well (about 1/3 of March) so its not UK only. Japan sold around half in April compared to March too.

This estimate is probably pretty close and roughly checks out with what we know though, I guess its probably within range of error, whatever error they consider.

 

[TheRealBigRich]

I see a lot made of the 2:1 ratio. It made me wonder would 60 million sold be considered good?of course everyone is striving for 100 million plus and no one wants sub 20 like wii u but is 60 million bad? Or is it just OK and comparatively vs a 100 million looks like a failure

 

[Toriko]

So, firstly I want to say I know nothing about sales, and I also don't care who "wins" in terms of sales. I just want to see all three doing well, which is why I wanted to ask if these numbers are good enough for Xbox? It just kinda concerns me a bit because they have made all these huge investments in Gamepass, acquisitions, etc. and they're basically just sitting where they were last gen, getting outsold 2:1 by the competition?

Like, nothing they're doing is having any impact at all? Is there any cause for concern at all with this for the brand? Like I said, I really don't care who "wins", I just don't want to see any of them doing poorly, but I don't really have the sales knowledge to interpret how good or bad these results are for MS so far?

Click to shrink...

They are also focusing on PC this gen whereas they were not last gen. Even if the console sales wind up exactly as last gen LTD (which would be disappointing given how much effort they are putting in) they will be fine.

As long as they are making money and are profitable does it matter?

 

[kc44135]

Nothing they do can have an impact if they are sold out. This is a pure production limitation.

Click to shrink...

Oh, I see. Probably due to the Pandemic right? Gotcha, makes sense.

 

[platocplx]

I think by now that is no longer the reason, and it was only off by a month or 2 at best. Its not like the PS5 had an entire year head start.

Click to shrink...

Yeah I think earliest Xboxes people have were July vs Playstation was May(more than likely end of May)

 

[Stall_19]

PS5 outselling Xbox series doesn't really mean anything other than that they made more PS5s than Xboxs. They're both selling out as soon as they're put on sale.

 

[kc44135]

They are also focusing on PC this gen whereas they were not last gen. Even if the console sales wind up exactly as last gen LTD (which would be disappointing given how much effort they are putting in) they will be fine.

As long as they are making money and are profitable does it matter?

Click to shrink...

Right, that does make sense. Also, If they are happy with the numbers and consider themselves to be doing well, then I don't think it really matters, no. Like I said, I really don't care who "wins", I just want to see all of them doing well.

 

[Welfare]

I see a lot made of the 2:1 ratio. It made me wonder would 60 million sold be considered good?of course everyone is striving for 100 million plus and no one wants sub 20 like wii u but is 60 million bad? Or is it just OK and comparatively vs a 100 million looks like a failure

Click to shrink...

If all 60M consoles had Game Pass then Microsoft would consider it a success. That's what matters to them overall.

Well that's a possibility, I don't think NPD will be that high but we'll see. We know Spain had a much lower month in April as well (about 1/3 of March) so its not UK only. Japan sold around half in April compared to March too.

This estimate is probably pretty close and roughly checks out with what we know though, I guess its probably within range of error, whatever error they consider.

Click to shrink...

Yeah in the end it's all estimates. I'm still sure US saw a good April but I could be blown out on that one.

 

[tapedeck]

ITT people are failing to comprehend Series X are selling out instantly.

The 'win' for Sony is they've been able to make many more PS5's.

 

[Mister_X]

So, firstly I want to say I know nothing about sales, and I also don't care who "wins" in terms of sales. I just want to see all three doing well, which is why I wanted to ask if these numbers are good enough for Xbox? It just kinda concerns me a bit because they have made all these huge investments in Gamepass, acquisitions, etc. and they're basically just sitting where they were last gen, getting outsold 2:1 by the competition?

Like, nothing they're doing is having any impact at all? Is there any cause for concern at all with this for the brand? Like I said, I really don't care who "wins", I just don't want to see any of them doing poorly, but I don't really have the sales knowledge to interpret how good or bad these results are for MS so far?

Click to shrink...

MS has stated numerous times that console sales aren't everything to them anymore. Yea it's still important since it's the easiest way to get people into their ecosystem but at the end of this gen if it's the same ratio as PS4/Xone but they have 100 million active Gamepass subscribers(PC,Xbox, Xcloud) I'm sure they will be happy

 

[CloseTalker]

Phil has said multiple times he doesn't care if you buy an Xbox. They're only in the console business as a vehicle for their service business. It's disingenuous to compare console sales as apples to apples when PC (and later on streaming apps on your TV) are so core to Microsoft's strategy

 

[one]

It's crazy that Xbox is selling that much without an exclusive, 1:3 would be more in line with what most people expected.

 

[Toumari]

PS5 outselling Xbox series doesn't really mean anything other than that they made more PS5s than Xboxs. They're both selling out as soon as they're put on sale.

Click to shrink...

For Series X that's true, but it's definitely not the case for the Series S in the UK. They are in stock on every single website I can think of and fail to sell out:

https://www.argos.co.uk/product/8448248
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Xbox-RRS-00007-Series-S/dp/B08GD9MNZB/
https://www.microsoft.com/en-gb/p/xbox-series-s/942j774tp9jn
https://www.currys.co.uk/gbuk/gamin...-ultimate-bundle-512-gb-ssd-10221027-pdt.html
https://www.very.co.uk/xbox-series-s-xbox-series-s-with-optional-extras/1600503630.prd
https://www.game.co.uk/en/hardware/xbox-series
https://www.smythstoys.com/uk/en-gb/video-games-and-tablets/xbox-gaming/xbox-series-x-|-s/xbox-series-x-|-s-consoles/xbox-series-s-512gb-console/p/192247
https://www.simplygames.com/p/xbox-series-s-console-xbox-series-x

 

[kc44135]

MS has stated numerous times that console sales aren't everything to them anymore. Yea it's still important since it's the easiest way to get people into their ecosystem but at the end of this gen if it's the same ratio as PS4/Xone but they have 100 million active Gamepass subscribers(PC,Xbox, Xcloud) I'm sure they will be happy

Click to shrink...

Yeah, that's true. Gamepass seems to be doing very well so far too.

 

[FaultLineBlues]

ITT people are failing to comprehend Series X are selling out instantly.

The 'win' for Sony is they've been able to make many more PS5's.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, it's odd that people are taking it at such face value when it's based on supply.

 

[GING-SAMA]

So, firstly I want to say I know nothing about sales, and I also don't care who "wins" in terms of sales. I just want to see all three doing well, which is why I wanted to ask if these numbers are good enough for Xbox? It just kinda concerns me a bit because they have made all these huge investments in Gamepass, acquisitions, etc. and they're basically just sitting where they were last gen, getting outsold 2:1 by the competition?

Like, nothing they're doing is having any impact at all? Is there any cause for concern at all with this for the brand? Like I said, I really don't care who "wins", I just don't want to see any of them doing poorly, but I don't really have the sales knowledge to interpret how good or bad these results are for MS so far?

Click to shrink...

The demand for Series X is higher than the demand + They don't have first party release yet, I think it's good and the stock will be better by the end of year when games like Halo, FH5 etc... will be released.

There will inevitably be a boost when the stocks return to normal, but also a boost for their first party.

 

[Confused Cheeseburger]

Yeah, it's odd that people are taking it at such face value when it's based on supply.

Click to shrink...

I mean we're literally seeing people fall into warring.