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An explosion is coming - WaPo opinion piece

Kirblar

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,745
First, yes, explosion is figurative language here.

Second, This is not an article I would have expected from Dana Milbank.

Third, this is perhaps the best summary of the GOP gerrymandering and representation issues that have led us here I've seen. GOP base voters have been obsessed with the courts, in large part due to Roe v Wade, for ages, and that single-minded obsession with gaining power has been leading them to obsess over making sure they have friendly faces unwilling to actually check it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...d3beccdd7a3_story.html?utm_term=.4d0963414b27

Eight years ago, when Congress was about to pass Obamacare, John A. Boehner, leader of a powerless Republican congressional minority, gave a passionate, prescient speech on the House floor.
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This was Boehner’s famous “hell no, you can’t” speech. But the Democrats could. They had the votes, and they passed Obamacare. Boehner was correct in his prediction, though. The Democrats were soon on their way to minority status in the House and would later lose the Senate and the presidency.
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Now I think I know how Boehner felt in 2010. We see Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) vowing to ram through the Senate the confirmation of the decisive fifth hard-right justice on the Supreme Court, quite likely signaling the end of legal abortion in much of America and possibly same-sex marriage and other rights Americans embrace, in far greater number, than they ever did Obamacare.
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One wants to cry out: Hell no, you can’t! But Republicans can. They have the votes. Democrats can and should fight, but the GOP controls the schedule, sets the rules and already eliminated the procedures that gave the minority a say in Supreme Court confirmations.
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Now we have a Supreme Court nomination — the second in as many years — from an unpopular president who lost the popular vote by 2.8 million. The nominee will be forced through by also-unpopular Senate Republicans, who, like House Republicans, did not win a majority of the vote in 2016.
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Compounding the outrage, each of the prospective nominees is all but certain, after joining the court, to support the eventual overturning of Roe v. Wade, which has held the nation together in a tenuous compromise on abortion for 45 years and is supported by two-thirds of Americans. For good measure, the new justice may well join the other four conservative justices in revoking same-sex marriage, which also has the support of two-thirds of Americans. And this comes after the Republicans essentially stole a Supreme Court seat by refusing to consider President Barack Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, to a vacant seat.
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Republicans have been defying gravity for some time. As New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait reminds us in a smart piece, they lost the popular vote in six of the last seven presidential elections. Electoral college models show Republicans could plausibly continue to win the White House without popular majorities.
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Because of partisan gerrymandering and other factors, Democrats could win by eight percentage points and still not gain control of the House, one study found. And the two-senators-per-state system (which awards people in Republican Wyoming 70 times more voting power than people in Democratic California) gives a big advantage to rural, Republican states.
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The Supreme Court’s conservative majority has protected Republican minority rule. It gave the wealthy freedom to spend unlimited dark money on elections, while crippling the finances of unions. It sustained gerrymandering and voter-suppression laws that reduce participation of minority voters. And, of course, it gave the presidency to George W. Bush.
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Control of the judiciary, and the resulting protection of minority rule, has been the prize for Republicans who tolerated President Trump’s starting a trade war, losing allies while getting cozy with Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin, flirting with white supremacists, paying off a porn star and attacking the justice system while his former advisers are indicted and convicted.
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The backlash is coming. It is the deserved consequence of minority-rule government protecting the rich over everybody else, corporations over workers, whites over nonwhites and despots over democracies. It will explode , God willing, at the ballot box and not in the streets.
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entremet

entremet

Member
Oct 26, 2017
36,578
Republican rule is a tyrant looking to extend its power by nefarious means. From voter ID laws to gerrymandering/
 
Betty

Betty

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
15,078
"The backlash is coming."

Unfortunately that backlash could come in the form of far left progressives fighting amongst centrist Democrats which may lead to a change in the liberal politics, which is fine and all, but will also divide the vote enough for a 2020 loss.
 
OP
OP
Kirblar

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,745
Betty said:
"The backlash is coming."

Unfortunately that backlash could come in the form of far left progressives fighting amongst centrist Democrats which may lead to a change in the liberal politics, but will also divide the vote enough for a 2020 loss.
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This is not playing out in actual election behavior at the state/local level whatsoever in 2017 or 2018.
 
Helot_Azure

Helot_Azure

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
1,521
If Republicans hold both houses of Congress after mid-terms, there will be rioting in the streets.
 
Neoweee

Neoweee

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,660
Betty said:
Except a Bernie styled socialist Democrat just beat out a centre Democrat in a New York district and it's energised many people.
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There's not any evidence that it has energized people. A lot of things, including a pitiful 14% turnout, were necessary for that to happen. Large swings to the left definitely aren't the norm.

There's generally more evidence that wave is of women candidates, in general, than of any ideological bent.
 
Vonnegut

Vonnegut

Banned
May 27, 2018
1,082
Did George Lucas, in a way, predict all of this with the prequel films?

I’m just going to move to Scotland. It’s green there.
 
Hiphopopotamus

Hiphopopotamus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,885
Betty said:
Except a Bernie styled socialist Democrat just beat out a centre Democrat in a New York district and it's energised many people.
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Crowley was never a "centre Democrat" except in the eyes of ignoramuses and political neophytes. If he was a centrist then folks like Maxine Waters are wild-eyed Communists.
 

Somnid

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,788
There is always snapback in the US. This time they might push the pendulum to the breaking point, having pulled out every dirty trick in the book. Trump is the GOPs monkey paw wish. Once they lose power, by pushing the form of discourse they have, it will not be nice for them because there won't be any more reaching across the isle like the Obama years.
 
OP
OP
Kirblar

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,745
Betty said:
Except a Bernie styled socialist Democrat just beat out a centre Democrat in a New York district and it's energised many people.
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And her opponent immediately congratulated and endorsed her. The same thing happened when Northam beat Pierello in Virginia, Pierello immediately embraced/endorsed him.

PUMA/Buster behavior is not showing up in actual races, candidates and voters are largely understanding of the fact that it's a team game.
 
Branduil

Branduil

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,705
I've lost all faith that this problem can be defeated by voting alone. Even if the Democrats retake congress and the presidency, will they be willing to do what is necessary to achieve actual democracy? The fact that they are scolding Maxine Waters for telling the truth tells me no, they aren't willing. It's an inherent structural problem, and as long as Wyoming has the same voting power as California, as long as the Senate, Supreme Court, and non-representational districts exist, fixing America won't be possible.
 
Betty

Betty

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
15,078
Shard Shinjuku said:
Very much an outlier at present.
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That's how it starts.

Neoweee said:
There's not any evidence that it has energized people. A lot of things, including a pitiful 14% turnout, were necessary for that to happen. Large swings to the left definitely aren't the norm.

There's generally more evidence that wave is of women candidates, in general, than of any ideological bent.
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Maybe, I did read it was the most shocking upset of the 2018 elections so far, it could easily turn into a bigger movement over time.

pigeon said:
That seems...good? I thought you were suggesting this would somehow be bad. People being excited about Democrats is good.
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It is good, but when 2020 rolls around will everyone be on the same page? Or will it be a reverse of 2016, with centre Democrats feeling burned with their candidate getting the shove for the more popular socialist Democrat?

Hiphopopotamus said:
Crowley was never a "centre Democrat" except in the eyes of ignoramuses and political neophytes. If he was a centrist then folks like Maxine Waters are wild-eyed Communists.
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Okay 'establishment' then.

Kirblar said:
And her opponent immediately congratulated and endorsed her. The same thing happened when Northam beat Pierello in Virginia, Pierello immediately embraced/endorsed him.

PUMA/Buster behavior is not showing up in actual races, candidates and voters are largely understanding of the fact that it's a team game.
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Bernie congratulated his opponent too, didn't stop some from feeling annoyed to change their vote come November.

Aquamarine said:
Not just a "center Democrat," a leading establishment Democrat who was poised to be the next Speaker of the House. ...who was beaten by a 28-year-old ex-bartender.

People are ANGRY at the establishment...both sides...in their flagrant willingness to let money control politics at the expense of the people. It causes so much inequality and so much suffering (which is only accelerating) that of course it will inevitably reach its breaking point.

I honestly expect some kind of government upheaval at some point because of how fed up people are getting. That's a consequence of Trump's policies...they're so outlandish and blatantly evil that it spurs people from complacency to ACTION. The fact that Trump got elected in the first place is everything that's wrong with modern politics today, and we see the first signs of government resistance with protests trying to block ICE.

Personally I agree, I think the system itself is untenable and needs to be broken down and rebuilt. I know I'll certainly join the protests when the time comes.
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And I'm for it, god knows the current Dem leadership isn't exactly firing on all cylinders or matching the people's mindsets.
 
Foffy

Foffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,608
The GOP has the courts, but they don't have the public. This divide will, in fact, lead to a sociopolitical explosion.

The looming question is what issue, what event, is the flashpoint?
 
Wilsongt

Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,841
Republicans played the long game and are winning. With control of states, the senate, the presidency, and the judiciary.

2010 truly was a turning point in this country.
 
Greigor the FellHand

Greigor the FellHand

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,072
In my mind, there is a growing potential for protests against ICE to be that point.

ICE agents will do something stupid (towards protestors, think finger men from v for vendetta) and then all hells gonna break loose.
 
Madison

Madison

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,388
Lima, Peru
Change will come. 2018 and 2020 are crucial elections but its all about playing it smart. Democrats will recover the house and, will enough effort, the senate. Yeah, this might get even more fucked up before that happens but the point is theres a light at the end of the tunnel.

After that its just a matter of stopping Trump from being reelected and then Demos can work on fixing the hellhole Trump created. If Trump wins the reelection though...thats what would make me stop believing.
 
Volimar

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,858
People see them in the government, they see them getting their way and they forget. There are more of us than there are of them. It really is a matter of time until we get back in charge and from there we start fixing the gerrymandered systems across the country. Then we'll go after the restrictive voting laws. Then the governorships. Republicans will lose and keep losing. SCOTUS may take longer, but as we've seen in 2016, the only thing that can hold us back is ourselves. Unfortunately, we're pretty good at getting in our own way.
 
Angelus Errare

Angelus Errare

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,482
Racoon City
"backlash is coming", it already came and gave us Trump. Much like backlash to civil rights gave us war On drugs, backlash to Reconstruction gave us Jim Crow, etc
 
Skelepuzzle

Skelepuzzle

Member
Apr 17, 2018
6,119
Betty said:
It is good, but when 2020 rolls around will everyone be on the same page? Or will it be a reverse of 2016, with centre Democrats feeling burned with their candidate getting the shove for the more popular socialist Democrat?
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Center, establishment, old school, whatever-you-want-to-call-them Democrats vote for the platform. This seems very unlikely since they have no particular thought leader that they'll take their ball and go home over.
 
Wyman Manderly

Wyman Manderly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,766
The fact so many middle-class and low-income people continuously vote against their interests is the worst thing. Fox News has done brutal damage to this country.
 
Nothing Loud

Nothing Loud

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,578
Helot_Azure said:
If Republicans hold both houses of Congress after mid-terms, there will be rioting in the streets.
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Nah. 21st century Americans are complacent at powerful protests. In other countries, when there’s government corruption, people nationwide abandon their jobs and homes and flood the streets and impeach or imprison their political figures (Iceland was a fun example. Brazil too). In America, we complain on social media and go back to funny videos on our phones and ignoring and not voting.

Nothing will happen.
 
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