Not good news for our beloved Shenmue.
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Estimate revisions due to FF VII, Shenmue III & Biomutant
We lower our revenue estimate for Deep Silver from SEK 625m to SEK 550m in Q3'19/20e, mainly due to Shenmue III performing below our expectations. Furthermore, as no official release date has been announced for Biomutant, we have pencilled in a release in the next financial year instead of Q4'19/20e. Lastly, due to a delay of Square Enixs' Final Fantasy VII remake, we now pencil in a release in Q1'20/21e instead of Q4'19/20e. See page 3 for more details.
Shenmue III
Shenmue III was released on 19 November 2019 on PlayStation 4 and the Epic Games Store. The game gathered mixed reviews amongst critics, with an averageMetacritic score of 69 on PC and 68 on PlayStation 4. However, it's our view that actual fans of the series were very pleased with the game.
In terms of sales, we're currently not able to track sales generated on the EpicGames Store, however we note that Shenmue III did claim a spot on the Top 20 Sellers list for several weeks. Additionally, Embracer will have received a fee for making the game exclusive to the Epic Games Store. In terms of sales on the PlayStation 4, estimates seem to suggest that the game has gatheredapproximately 50k players in Q3'19/20e4.
Ultimately, Shenmue III sales seem to have performed below our estimates, which is the reason for us lowering our revenue estimates for the Deep Silver segment.
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