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Analyst: Gears 5 is Game Pass' first "mega hit", leads to great number of Game Pass sign ups

Gamechanger87

Member
Oct 25, 2017
574
Dan, as usual, is absolutely right. The traditional sales #s will be deceiving, the game has moved subscriptions like nothing else has. The question is will these new subscribers stay subscribers, but MS has given them a ton of reasons to do so.

GP is a great service, and easily the best positioned to becomes the Netflix for games.
Never forget that GP has two things going for it. Continual releases and the general apathy people have on subs. Subs will typically stay active for s long period because people just don’t cancel them (think gyms).
 

StudioTan

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,168
I get to play two months of Horizon 4 and Gears 5 for $2. Duh this spiked game pass subs.
Why do people keep parroting this statement? The $2 deal isn't new, people were saying the same thing when Sea of Thieves launched. And when Horizon 4 launched. Every time MS announces their games have a few million players people keep saying "well it's $2!". It's like if every time Netflix or Amazon have a hit series 10 people reply "well duh, I can get 30 days for free, of course <Insert Show> is going to be successful when it's free!".

The only thing that's new here is the upgrade to Ultimate for $1 deal they've been running since announcing it. The $1 trial for Game Pass has been a thing for much much longer.
 
Jan 4, 2018
902
Why do people keep parroting this statement? The $2 deal isn't new, people were saying the same thing when Sea of Thieves launched. And when Horizon 4 launched. Every time MS announces their games have a few million players people keep saying "well it's $2!". It's like if every time Netflix or Amazon have a hit series 10 people reply "well duh, I can get 30 days for free, of course <Insert Show> is going to be successful when it's free!".

The only thing that's new here is the upgrade to Ultimate for $1 deal they've been running since announcing it. The $1 trial for Game Pass has been a thing for much much longer.
Also, I may be wrong, but I think the 1$ offer was for new users, if you had GP before and it lapsed you could not pick the offer
Pretty sure the GPU is the same, users that already had GPU (though as it's pretty recent I don't think there will be a lot of people with lapsed GPU) won't be eligible for this
My point being, at one time that argument will be absolutely pointless (if it's not already) because those millions of players either will already have it paid for a period or they'll be paying full price for GP or GPU for the month to try the game
Anyway it's funny seeing some takes while I have it for the next 3 years (+ a 2yr code for GP waiting to be redeemed as I'm already at the max) gimme that sweet tears of ressentment muahaha
 
Last edited:
Aug 23, 2018
248
Also, I may be wrong, but I think the 1$ offer was for new users, if you had GP before and it lapsed you could not pick the offer
Pretty sure the GPU is the same, users that already had GPU (though as it's pretty recent I don't think there will be a lot of people with lapsed GPU) won't be eligible for this
My point being, at one time that argument will be absolutely pointless (if it's not already) because those millions of players either will already have it paid for a period or they'll be paying full price for GP or GPU for the month to try the game
Anyway it's funny seeing some takes while I have it for the next 3 years (+ a 2yr code for GP waiting to be redeemed as I'm already at the max) gimme that sweet tears of ressentment muahaha
I think that maybe partially true. I think the GPU $2 deal could be redeemed for those that may have used the $1 GP deal and let that lapse.

But yea, I look forward to the halo infinite threads being filled with the same bullshit rhetoric
 

StudioTan

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,168
Also, I may be wrong, but I think the 1$ offer was for new users, if you had GP before and it lapsed you could not pick the offer
Pretty sure the GPU is the same, users that already had GPU (though as it's pretty recent I don't think there will be a lot of people with lapsed GPU) won't be eligible for this
My point being, at one time that argument will be absolutely pointless (if it's not already) because those millions of players either will already have it paid for a period or they'll be paying full price for GP or GPU for the month to try the game
Anyway it's funny seeing some takes while I have it for the next 3 years (+ a 2yr code for GP waiting to be redeemed as I'm already at the max) gimme that sweet tears of ressentment muahaha
Yeah it was 2 different things. There's the 1 dollar trial which has been around forever and that's for new users. That's why it's become a joke when people talk about the $1 trials with every new game release. Although now that's become $2 for 2 months instead I think.

The other promotion was for the upgrade to Ultimate for $1 which worked if you had either Game Pass or Xbox Live.

Granted I'm sure Gears 5 drove a LOT of new subs, but it's certainly not everyone.
 

Hucast

Member
Mar 25, 2019
3,085
The quit sub after 1$ being done is probably going to happen a lot, for users here at resetera, but the mainstream's behaviour is always different. This is gonna keep a lot of subs in the grand of scale
 

biggy

Member
Dec 12, 2017
144
Why do people keep parroting this statement? The $2 deal isn't new, people were saying the same thing when Sea of Thieves launched. And when Horizon 4 launched. Every time MS announces their games have a few million players people keep saying "well it's $2!". It's like if every time Netflix or Amazon have a hit series 10 people reply "well duh, I can get 30 days for free, of course <Insert Show> is going to be successful when it's free!".

The only thing that's new here is the upgrade to Ultimate for $1 deal they've been running since announcing it. The $1 trial for Game Pass has been a thing for much much longer.
Why is what I’m saying viewed as a negative thing? It’s like people are taking it personally. Weird.
 

Bennibop

Member
Oct 30, 2017
930
I said the same about different games when I signed up for one of their three months offers and now my subscription is running until almost the end of 2021 ;)

It's just a fantastic service. My mind is still blown every time I think about how you can sign up for €2 and play stuff like Gears 5 and Outer Worlds on day one. Why wasn't this around when I was a kid!
I subscribed previously for £1 for Forza Horizon 4. Not going to subscribe long term as I am not interested in 90% of the games.
 

FlintSpace

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,547
We might be entering a phase where guaging commercial success of a game is difficult to know.

Would NPD get numbers from GamePass ??
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,800
London, UK
A lot of people are signing up because of the $1-$2 1 month deals for ultimate not to mention that you can use those deals to one-time upgrade your entire Gold Membership to Ultimate. Many people are buying 3 years of Gold and converting it to Ultimate.

Praise for getting people to do it but it's far too early to commend it for competitive pricing, at least when you're just looking at sticker price. I doubt as many people would be buying if they had to pay full Ultimate monthly pricing.
I would have totally agreed with you a few months ago. But then I took advantage the first time they did the £1 upgrade thing. I'm the three months since I have totally stopped using my ps4 Pro and upgraded my xbox s to an x

So either it works or I'm an idiot
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,805
The World
Dan, as usual, is absolutely right. The traditional sales #s will be deceiving, the game has moved subscriptions like nothing else has. The question is will these new subscribers stay subscribers, but MS has given them a ton of reasons to do so.

GP is a great service, and easily the best positioned to becomes the Netflix for games.
Anything NPD is working to track subscription data?
 

Laver

Member
Mar 30, 2018
73
wow, such a dumb statement, some people act like they got insulted when you say that $1 deals played a very important role in gaining a lot of new subscribers...
Netflix, HBO Go, Spotify, Prime etc. offer the first month for free. It's a standard pratice in the digital subscription model. Still people need to be aware of your subscription service and need to even want to bother to use the trial period. Releases like Gears 5 are necessary to put Game Pass on the map for the mainstream audience in the first place, same as Netflix needed early hits like House of Cards or Orange is the New Black.

People will see what the service has to offer, do the math and either continue paying $10 a month or cancel, but if Microsoft want to have tens of millions of subscribers eventually (which they clearly do, it's the only way for this model work really), they need to have people sign up in the first place.
 

Ruslnis

Member
Feb 26, 2018
2,125
Well the main takeaway for me is that MS is trading retail + digital sales for the GP subscription revenue. Which right now is probably lower than the possible sales numbers without GP. But MS playing the long game so if they can keep people subscribed for the full price - than it's a win

But all that confusion with GP could be easily avoided if we knew how much subscribers there are and what is the actual operational profit of xbox