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Analyst: Gears 5 is Game Pass' first "mega hit", leads to great number of Game Pass sign ups

OneBadMutha

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,786
Gamepass is probably the best thing to happen in gaming industry in the last 20 years.
For me it’s the best thing since Xbox Live and then Halo 2’s matchmaking changed gaming. It’s rejuvenated me as a gamer. I could give a shit about Microsoft’s console sales as long as Game Pass sustains itself. Port every game to other platforms as far as I care. Make this model work.
 

ElMexiMerican

Member
Oct 25, 2017
895
Both. For GamePass, they likely have a metric based solely on how many people are playing, how often. It has nothing to do with the sign-up offers. Get X number of people to download and play Gears 5 for Y number of hours, get Z amount of "credit" for revenue on their performance metrics.

This is how almost all subscription services work internally.
Ah, okay. I see now. Thanks for the insight
 
Feb 10, 2018
13,428
For me it’s the best thing since Xbox Live and then Halo 2’s matchmaking changed gaming. It’s rejuvenated me as a gamer. I could give a shit about Microsoft’s console sales as long as Game Pass sustains itself. Port every game to other platforms as far as I care. Make this model work.
Yeah, to think ised to rent games for £5 for a few days.
And now I can get new games and 100s of olds ones for a few pounds a month is unreal.
 

bishoptl

Remember
Member
Oct 26, 2017
430
Vancouver
A lot of people are signing up because of the $1-$2 1 month deals for ultimate not to mention that you can use those deals to one-time upgrade your entire Gold Membership to Ultimate. Many people are buying 3 years of Gold and converting it to Ultimate.

Praise for getting people to do it but it's far too early to commend it for competitive pricing, at least when you're just looking at sticker price. I doubt as many people would be buying if they had to pay full Ultimate monthly pricing.
Wait a second, I didn't even know this was a thing. I might actually buy a Gold membership for the first time since the Xbox 360.
 
Aug 23, 2018
248
Any guesses to total player count for the month?

As a comparison Sea of Thieves had 2 million in its launch month but that was only 9 days long.
https://mp1st.com/news/sea-of-thieves-player-count-totaled-2-million-in-first-month

Not unreasonable to say they get close to 8-10 million considering they’ll have almost an entire month, had essentially an entire launch weekend with the ultimate edition, and GPU/GamePass for PC are a thing when they were during sea of Thieves launch.
 

Trup1aya

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,513
most likly lower then the past entries since unless you like owning your games there is no reason to not go through game pass to play it
I'd be extremely surprised if it sold less than Gears 4. For most MS 1st parties, being on gamepass hasn’t resulted in sequels underperforming their predecessors.
 

tutomos

Member
Oct 27, 2017
672
Yeah, if they get 3rd party titles on here then it would be crazy.

I wonder if MS could pay for 3rd parties to release their game on gamepass?
This is a good article that touches on the economics of Xbox Game Pass by 3rd party developers. MS does pay a fixed amount to 3rd parties to get their games on Game Pass.
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2019-07-05-xbox-game-pass-developers

I think everybody involved is just testing the waters. Obviously, it's not really proven now but we will see in the next few years how it goes.
 

Alex Stroud

Member
Oct 29, 2017
164
Not a bad deal overall. Was able to play Gears 5 for $2. I'll probably try out MCC before I'm up in December, but beyond that I'm not interested.
 

Manixramz

Member
Apr 4, 2018
234
A lot of people are signing up because of the $1-$2 1 month deals for ultimate not to mention that you can use those deals to one-time upgrade your entire Gold Membership to Ultimate. Many people are buying 3 years of Gold and converting it to Ultimate.

Praise for getting people to do it but it's far too early to commend it for competitive pricing, at least when you're just looking at sticker price. I doubt as many people would be buying if they had to pay full Ultimate monthly pricing.
this is the case. it is more like MS use gamepass ultimate to sign up gold. all the 1 USD upgrade are just live gold income. They pushing people to their gamepass plan .

its more like gold member get max 3 years of gamepass for free . this is what i see.
at least they can secure their fan base and get profit from all the secondary console user. like my self , i sign up because i get gears 5 and need one more big day one game that i for sure will buy to justified the price i payed.

I'm not sure how they are making profit out this 1USD upgrade , might be next gen plan , but this is a big more and gears helped it. But i'm not sure how this will continue after all that 3 years upgrade runs out.
 

Slowsonic

Member
Feb 25, 2018
164
I'd be extremely surprised if it sold less than Gears 4. For most MS 1st parties, being on gamepass hasn’t resulted in sequels underperforming their predecessors.
Gears5 could be the first case, simply because the amount of effort MS is trying to associate gamepass with the game, it's so obvious they trying to push gp sub instead of transitional sale.
 

Gamechanger87

Member
Oct 25, 2017
574
A lot of people are signing up because of the $1-$2 1 month deals for ultimate not to mention that you can use those deals to one-time upgrade your entire Gold Membership to Ultimate. Many people are buying 3 years of Gold and converting it to Ultimate.

Praise for getting people to do it but it's far too early to commend it for competitive pricing, at least when you're just looking at sticker price. I doubt as many people would be buying if they had to pay full Ultimate monthly pricing.
If you commit to 1-3 years of Gamepass for dirt cheap you are essentially telling MS that you are in their ecosystem for that period of time. Future DLC is where the money is.

I’ve been harping this for awhile and here is Benji harping it

 

Toney J

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,328
I hope it continues to do well for them. Being able to play a $60 AAA release for $2 or $6 is pretty nice lol. I don't see myself ever being a long term subscriber though.
 

Gamechanger87

Member
Oct 25, 2017
574
One thing that everyone should remember. For every subscriber that pops in and out month to month there are significantly more that subscribe and never cancel. All subscription services (think gyms) survive this way. They don’t actually expect everyone to be active. Apathy and sub renewals are built in.

Most of you picking month to month will be far outweighed by people who sub and leave it or forget (ignoring those who actually use it)
 

Gamechanger87

Member
Oct 25, 2017
574
One thing that everyone should remember. For every subscriber that pops in and out month to month there are significantly more that subscribe and never cancel. All subscription services (think gyms) survive this way. They don’t actually expect everyone to be active. Apathy and sub renewals are built in.

Most of you picking month to month will be far outweighed by those who just stay in it
 

Toney J

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,328
One thing that everyone should remember. For every subscriber that pops in and out month to month there are significantly more that subscribe and never cancel. All subscription services (think gyms) survive this way. They don’t actually expect everyone to be active. Apathy and sub renewals are built in.

Most of you picking month to month will be far outweighed by those who just stay in it
yep, people are super lazy and don't bother cancelling services they don't use lol.
 

OneBadMutha

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,786
yep, people are super lazy and don't bother cancelling services they don't use lol.
...or...they just like the option. I don’t watch Hulu or Netflix every month. I keep both subscriptions going because I like that they’re there when I want them. I don’t sign up and cancel regularly. I’m fully aware that’s what they want however the times a year I do watch stuff makes the subscription worth it. If you enjoy 6 games on Game Pass a year, the subscription likely paid for itself even at full price. Not like you have to use it weekly to justify its value.
 

Trup1aya

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,513
Gears5 could be the first case, simply because the amount of effort MS is trying to associate gamepass with the game, it's so obvious they trying to push gp sub instead of transitional sale.
It could be, anything is possible, but I still see no reason to expect it to be.

A $1 or $2 gamepass sub is a hell of a deal compared to a $60 sale.

But so was the $10 gamepass sub back when Gears 4 joined the service.

I still that the vast majority of players will get it the old fashioned way. And the popularity of this game on Xbox live , thanks to gamepass, will help advertise the game for further sales.
 

Toney J

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,328
...or...they just like the option. I don’t watch Hulu or Netflix every month. I keep both subscriptions going because I like that they’re there when I want them. I don’t sign up and cancel regularly. I’m fully aware that’s what they want however the times a year I do watch stuff makes the subscription worth it. If you enjoy 6 games on Game Pass a year, the subscription likely paid for itself even at full price. Not like you have to use it weekly to justify its value.
I mean if money isn't an issue, sure, sub to all the services you want and not care lol.
 

Lebron

Member
Oct 30, 2017
988
Im never leaving the game pass family till they kill it fam

Did the same with Zune pass
 

Gundam

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,721
This is great. Hoping 343i doesn't screw up with Halo. For the 4th time.
4?

Halo Anniversary was a good, functioning product, given the restraints. At worst it was Halo 1 on 360, which is one of the greatest games of all time. Even then, more Sabre Interactive than 343.
 

StudioTan

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,168
I still find hard to believe that they'll be able to keep pumping money into AAA services if people move away from traditional purchases in favor of this service. Specially considering how much money they probably pay for third party games to be available. We'll see.
It's really not hard to see how this would work. This is basic fuzzy math but if you had 10 million subs on in the 9.99 Game Pass that's going to generate 100 million dollars a month in revenue or 1.2 billion dollars per year. Let's say they're selling 1st party games at $60, let's forget for a moment they don't keep all of that from physical sales, they would need to sell 20 million copies of their 1st party games at full price to generate 1.2 billion in revenue.

Now let's say everyone who owns an Xbox stops buying Microsoft games and subs to Game Pass instead. That's 40 millions subs at $10/month which is 4.8 billion dollars a year. That's the equivalent of selling 80 million full priced $60 games.

Then on top of that you have people buying DLC and micro transaction items.

Meanwhile Netflix has 150 million subs. They might never get to that point but it would significantly more money than they would ever make from traditional sales.

The other big thing is you have revenue certainly. They might release a new game that doesn't sell very well and suddenly they've lost money or barely made profits on that game. With subs however they generally know how much money they are making every month and can budget much more easily.

Again, this is all basic fuzzy math and it's more complicated than that but you get the idea.
 

Zoid

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,560
4?

Halo Anniversary was a good, functioning product, given the restraints. At worst it was Halo 1 on 360, which is one of the greatest games of all time. Even then, more Sabre Interactive than 343.
Halo 4, MCC launch and taking years to fix it, Halo 5 campaign. That's 3 huge blunders with the Halo franchise, MS' poster child.
 

Mr_DyZ

Member
Jun 12, 2019
151
Gamepass ultimate converts your existing gold over. So people stacked years of Xbox Live on their accounts, then subscribed to game pass ultimate. Since it takes into account the gold on your account at the time of subscribing, I literally have gamepass ultimate for like $1 for the next 3 years. Best deal ever.
 
Dec 31, 2017
322
It's really not hard to see how this would work. This is basic fuzzy math but if you had 10 million subs on in the 9.99 Game Pass that's going to generate 100 million dollars a month in revenue or 1.2 billion dollars per year. Let's say they're selling 1st party games at $60, let's forget for a moment they don't keep all of that from physical sales, they would need to sell 20 million copies of their 1st party games at full price to generate 1.2 billion in revenue.

Now let's say everyone who owns an Xbox stops buying Microsoft games and subs to Game Pass instead. That's 40 millions subs at $10/month which is 4.8 billion dollars a year. That's the equivalent of selling 80 million full priced $60 games.

Then on top of that you have people buying DLC and micro transaction items.

Meanwhile Netflix has 150 million subs. They might never get to that point but it would significantly more money than they would ever make from traditional sales.

The other big thing is you have revenue certainly. They might release a new game that doesn't sell very well and suddenly they've lost money or barely made profits on that game. With subs however they generally know how much money they are making every month and can budget much more easily.

Again, this is all basic fuzzy math and it's more complicated than that but you get the idea.
And don't forget Gamepass is now on PC, and might soon be a thing for mobile players as well. The potential is definitely there to make a crazy amount of money if it does indeed take off as they think it will.
 

Betty

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
8,224
I had only planned to use the 2 months for 2 bucks offer, but now i'm subbed to Ultimate until November 2020.
 

Kyser73

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,322
QLD, Australia
This is the case for me. I paid for 24 months of Gold for €85 and 2 months of Ultimate for €2, making it around €3.30 a month. I'm PC only and the full price of the service would be €10 per month.

I have no intention at all to buy the service for full price and I've already canceled it. I just won't be buying very many games until May 2022.
Just out of interest, assuming GP covers off all your gaming needs for the 24 months, how many games would you have normally purchased?
 

Ascenion

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,789
Charlotte NC
Man Halo Infinite is going to show a lot of doubters the truth. The main question I have is what is the Scarlett bundle gonna look like? Day One Edition Or Halo Infinite Edition. Or both?
 

catpurrcat

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,617
For me it’s the best thing since Xbox Live and then Halo 2’s matchmaking changed gaming. It’s rejuvenated me as a gamer. I could give a shit about Microsoft’s console sales as long as Game Pass sustains itself. Port every game to other platforms as far as I care. Make this model work.
Yeah, to think ised to rent games for £5 for a few days.
And now I can get new games and 100s of olds ones for a few pounds a month is unreal.
Hell yes. I have greatly missed rentals and Gamepass takes me back to the days when I could own a couple of 10/10 hits but then supplement that with mid tier rentals in between big releases.

As long as it stays on PC they have me for $20/month forever.

One thing that everyone should remember. For every subscriber that pops in and out month to month there are significantly more that subscribe and never cancel. All subscription services (think gyms) survive this way. They don’t actually expect everyone to be active. Apathy and sub renewals are built in.

Most of you picking month to month will be far outweighed by people who sub and leave it or forget (ignoring those who actually use it)
^This man gets it.