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I think the key takeaway for Nintendo for this should be to not be so ambitious with their forecasts. A missed one like this can sour the narrative for them even when they are doing well, as the Switch so clearly is.
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Analysts Challenges Assertion Switch Is Not Selling Well; Selling Faster Than PS4
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
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SOURCE
I think the key takeaway for Nintendo for this should be to not be so ambitious with their forecasts. A missed one like this can sour the narrative for them even when they are doing well, as the Switch so clearly is.
OP
OP
No, they're usually way too conservative with their forecasts, which is why this one stood out.
I don't think anyone that are interested in the sector thinks they are selling badly. It's just that most investors look at the missed forecast. Usually the price of a stock has the forecast "baked in", that is the price is already set for that level of sales and when it misses it the price drops to what it would have been with the actual shipments.
This thread is bound to go well.
Anyway, yes, investors being short sighted is not really news but I don't think they're panicking solely because of the lowered hardware forecast. Nintendo also has not given any real specificity with their direction going forward into 2019 and on, which is not a great look after lowering those projections.
And yes the launch date discrepancy will always mess with the PS4 comparison, no need to argue about it for 5 pages.
Anyway, yes, investors being short sighted is not really news but I don't think they're panicking solely because of the lowered hardware forecast. Nintendo also has not given any real specificity with their direction going forward into 2019 and on, which is not a great look after lowering those projections.
And yes the launch date discrepancy will always mess with the PS4 comparison, no need to argue about it for 5 pages.
I'm curious as to why they even put out the 20m forecast to begin with. Even if you think you can do 20m, forecast 18m and overdeliver. Forecasting a number you know will be difficult to hit just to show confidence doesn't make long term business sense.
Would be kind of foolish to think switch isn't selling "well" after the data we received.
Imagine one can still argue that it's not selling as well as it could.
Do wonder if they would've reached their target if nothing got delayed
Imagine one can still argue that it's not selling as well as it could.
Do wonder if they would've reached their target if nothing got delayed
Especially not in the fucked up quarterly news cycle that everyone seems to be bound to now a days where "long term" means next year.
They weren't conservative with the Wii U sales.
It looks like Nintendo needs to learn to sell during the other quarters.
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They've been selling fine for the other quarters, they're just always backloaded more than other companies are.
I just remember them slashing forecasts a lot during the Wii U era.
This was bound to happen if they didn't reach their ambitious 20m Target, and was definitely going to happen when they went conservative with the revised target. No reason it shouldn't get to 18m in my opinion.
All of this has also occurred without a price drop and few bundles in the West. Nintendo is in an excellent position regardless of what their current stock is doing (similar can be said for Sony).
All of this has also occurred without a price drop and few bundles in the West. Nintendo is in an excellent position regardless of what their current stock is doing (similar can be said for Sony).
Unless there's additional info in the article, I haven't seen any one suggest this.
Edit: just read the article, perception is in relation to investors, not the consumer/general public.
I'll leave this here for anyone confused.
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That was more on the Wii U than Nintendo
I believe that has to do with the state of things in the stock market currently.
Who thinks the Switch is not selling well? The investors feeling about the console is not always aligned with the sales figures. Switch is killing it. Even Sony shares dropped, although PS4 was the best selling console of the year and Sony hasn't changed their target for this FY. Stock market is weird, really weird.
They weren't conservative at all after the Wii. They had to revise Wii U sales projections multiple times in years 1 and 2 of the Wii U. They moved them down, and then still failed to meet the new numbers.
That too. Putting all their hopes on three months in a year seems dangerous
I know they're selling well, I just meant they've been losing their lead of the ps4 according to the graphs within a quarter.
Here is a comment from some Analysts that I think this article addresses:
Analyst said:
"Pachter said:
"Ash said:
Last edited:
There was an article (from Digitimes maybe?) last year stating they planned to manufacture 24-25M units for the FY. So maybe they were just way too overconfident and thought 20M was lowballing it.
The FE and Yoshi delays certainly didn't help but I can't imagine it would've done much more than 20M (if that) if those titles did make it into the FY.
That's not from Pachter, it says in the quote which analyst said this.
But yeah, a few analysts (and journalists like Yuji Nakamura) have been saying it's been selling poorly, or "the Switch story is over", dumb things like that. There's really no general perception that it's not selling well though.
Well yeah. PS4 only started to do really well after holiday 2015, and the Switch is much more in line with the Wii. Analysts, stock brokers, and forum armchair analysts need to chill the fuck out and look at the bigger picture. If the revision this year does what it should do like previous handheld revisions alongside the excellent software lineup, we should be looking at a number somewhere between 55-62mil for the total LTD by the start of FY20.
Nintendo didn't sell as many Switches as they expected during the first two quarters (April-September). Extremely robust holiday sales didn't quite fill in that gap. Hence the lowered forecast. It's not rocket science.
I think the investors are reacting fine. Nintendo stock is up today and the huge one day drop happened for exactly one day. At $36 and change into the OTC markets it's still higher than their average price last fall when people first speculated they may missAnd has recovered most of the losses from last week
I would venture to guess investors still see Switch as on an upward slope and picked up bargain shares last week.
Yup, you're right. I've updated my original comment as well.
Thanks for this info :)
He's right, the numbers are right. Switch is selling faster than PS4.
Investors are the ones to blame (and Nintendo for throwing such an unrealistic goal) for always being way too pessimistic.
Fiscal year ends in March 31st.
Investors are the ones to blame (and Nintendo for throwing such an unrealistic goal) for always being way too pessimistic.
Fiscal year ends in March 31st.
Updated my post. The article I was reading had several analysts making similarly silly comments and grabbed othe wrong one. Thanks for pointing it out.
There's no perception that it is not selling well. There's rather a perception that it is not selling well enough to satiate investors' highly optimistic desire of a primarily mobile Nintendo.
Who would say it isn't selling well? 15-17M in a year, especially after their last console only did that LTD, is great
You cannot say in good faith that the switch is selling bad. But you can absolutely say that it could have sold much* better with a stronger lineup; which is what Nintendo hoped. So in that sense, there are reasons to be disappointed, especially from a player perspective as the lofty 20m target lead most of us to expect more and better games in 2018.
*15% is much in that context.
*15% is much in that context.
Maybe they needed an influx of capital at the time they initially forecast?
PS 4 will be ahead next quarter due to the different launch time frame.
Switch is selling well but Nintendo and investors expected more. Moreover Nintendo has still not shared important info about how they will drive growth for the next FY. No need to panic here.
Switch is selling well but Nintendo and investors expected more. Moreover Nintendo has still not shared important info about how they will drive growth for the next FY. No need to panic here.
This narrative that the switch isn't selling well is practically made up. One dude might have said something negative. That doesn't mean everyone thinks that. People think it's not selling as well as they thought it was going to which is a big fucking difference. Even this analyst lowered his evaluation of Nintendo.
Yeah I meant specifically they were short sighted in the large drops that happened last week, which were rather predictable anyway.
But investors are generally short sighted, that's not really a knock on them. That's one of the easiest ways to make money playing the stock market.
I wouldn't say it's only one analyst. I saw quite a few articles last week talking about sales slowing causing investors to be unhappy.
I guess "sales slowing" and "not selling well" aren't quite the same thing, but even so "sales slowing" isn't true either.
But it's still their forecast. They would also cut 3DS forecast too.
Edit: Isn't this thread a repackaging of the "switch outpacing the ps4/wii launch aligned" thread?
Kinda seems like we're desperately looking for anyone who doesn't think Nintendo are gods so that we can show them up and have an invisible person to tell "told ya so"
There's no way anyone thinks Switch is selling poorly. Stock values always drop at the slightest hint of misgiving, that isn't really an indication of success, yes or no, but of success, how much and with what trajectory.
There's no way anyone thinks Switch is selling poorly. Stock values always drop at the slightest hint of misgiving, that isn't really an indication of success, yes or no, but of success, how much and with what trajectory.
Anyone can look at the numbers and say "No shit it's selling well." The entire situation was basically troll bait from the start.
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It's outselling it launched aligned, though they are going to go back and forth due to when they launched.
Sure they could do better in Europe, but PS4 could do better in Japan, is that really and indictment for either console when they are on the paces they are?