Animal Crossing and the Tale of the Missing Switch Market

[iceblade]

Thread posted on behalf of Souplex

Considering we're now in Animal Crossing Pocket Camp month, I thought it'd be good to look back at Animal Crossing, and its uniquely female dominated player-base. Most notably, AC: New Leaf boasted an impressive 56% female population despite being only 31% of all 3DS owners. I was reminded of this by a tweet from Imran Khan that highlighted how low female ownership appears to be from Nintendo's annual earnings report.

Considering what we've known for a few years of how women have a much larger presence in mobile gaming, do you think AC: PC will bring them to the Switch?

And are there any other widely acclaimed franchises that also have a majority female player-base to compare against?


Mario Odyssey bonus from Iwata Asks.

 

[AAMARMO]

It hasn't even been a year yet......

 

[Neoxon]

I wouldn't be surprised if we got Animal Crossing either next year. Patience, my friend.

As for Pocket Camp bringing people to the Switch, I could see that happening if we get AC Switch next year & how Pocket Camp connects to the likely Switch game.

 

[ClickyCal']

AC switch will almost for sure be next year, it has to be otherwise there would be a big gap without a really major new IP. It's already going to be 6 years since NL came out in Japan, by far the largest gap between mainline AC games.

 

[Deleted member 4093]

I'm sure it will come. Why do yall think it wont come or its missing intentionally???

 

[scare_crow]

I'm not sure a F2P app will make people plunk down $300+ to play a game in the same series on a different platform. But who knows, it could get some sales. I would guess that Nintendo is more interested in making Pocket Camp a massive success in its own right and less about using it as a gateway to the Switch.

 

[scare_crow]

It hasn't even been a year yet......

Click to shrink...

I'm sure it will come. Why do yall think it wont come or its missing intentionally???

Click to shrink...

You folks need to read the OP a little closer.

 

[Bandage]

I'm not sure a F2P app will make people plunk down $300+ to play a game in the same series on a different platform. But who knows, it could get some sales. I would guess that Nintendo is more interested in making Pocket Camp a massive success in its own right and less about using it as a gateway to the Switch.

Click to shrink...

Didn't both Pokemon and Fire Emblem see a rise in sales after their apps came out?

 

[scare_crow]

Didn't both Pokemon and Fire Emblem see a rise in sales after their apps came out?

Click to shrink...

Oh, I'm not sure. That certainly could be the case. I'm just saying I think Nintendo wants PC to be a standalone money-making machine and the trickle into Switch is more of a secondary aim.

 

[prosperoust]

We got new a new Zelda, Mario, Splatoon, and ports of MK8 and Pokken in one year. We're all jonesing for these games, but they can't blow their 1st party releases in the first 18-24 months. I could see Animal Crossing coming in late 2018/early 2019.

 

[MuchiMuchiPink]

You're correct that the female player base seems to be an untapped market so far. And yeah I think AC is one of the games that could get them to buy a Switch.

 

[Bandage]

Oh, I'm not sure. That certainly could be the case. I'm just saying I think Nintendo wants PC to be a standalone money-making machine and the trickle into Switch is more of a secondary aim.

Click to shrink...

They definitely want it to make money on its own, but they've stated several times that the mobile games main goal is to funnel people to their systems.
"Hey, if you like this watered down version, you should try the real thing!"

 

[Deleted member 4093]

You folks need to read the OP a little closer.

Click to shrink...

I read the OP but I dont get it.

Is he saying more women may buy a switch after animal crossing mobile if theres an animal crossing switch?

 

[Sloane]

Not quite sure I'm getting the point. Why would the mobile AC bring anyone to the Switch when the Switch doesn't have AC yet?

 

[Deleted member 2793]

I believe Animal Crossing Switch will underperform because of:

1. the lack of diversity in Switch's userbase and Nintendo doing nothing to fix that
2. Pocket Camp feels like a full Animal Crossing experience and it's free, better for casuals to play that than spend 300$ + 60$ on a new console
3. Japan is a big part of Animal Crossing's success and mobile games aren't translating into console sales there - just look at how SM is the worst selling Pokémon game in Japan, even after Pokémon Go.

 

[Odrion]

What were the demographic numbers for Breath of the Wild?

 

[Souplex]

To clarify, I expect AC Switch to come. My point is that the Switch currently has a much smaller female population than the 3DS did. This is more a question of if Nintendo's mobile synergy strategy will effectively change that.

Btw, first ever thread. Definitely need to work on my clarity

 

[Bakercat]

They've probably got ideas for a switch version on the table, but I bet they're waiting to see how the mobile version does before refining the series on consoles. If they see a big hit with the mobile version I could see them moving the series over there from now on. But, I do see a switch version coming still regardless, just may not see the series on consoles in the future.

 

[MuchiMuchiPink]

To clarify, I expect AC Switch to come. My point is that the Switch currently has a much smaller female population than the 3DS did. This is more a question of if Nintendo's mobile synergy strategy will effectively change that.

Btw, first ever thread. Definitely need to work on my clarity

Click to shrink...

No, I perfectly understand what you said.

 

[scare_crow]

I read the OP but I dont get it.

Is he saying more women may buy a switch after animal crossing mobile if theres an animal crossing switch?

Click to shrink...

Right. Given the fairly low percentage of women Switch owners (currently) and given that Animal Crossing has a relatively high percentage of players who are women, will AC:PC be a big gateway for more women to adopt the Switch.

I don't think OP has anything to do with whether or not AC will come to Switch.

 

[Deleted member 2793]

They've probably got ideas for a switch version on the table, but I bet they're waiting to see how the mobile version does before refining the series on consoles. If they see a big hit with the mobile version I could see them moving the series over there from now on. But, I do see a switch version coming still regardless, just may not see the series on consoles in the future.

Click to shrink...

This is what I feel too. This may be the first Nintendo IP making the big jump to mostly mobile instead of dedicated Nintendo hardware.

 

[DerbyCityDerek]

In my personal (and perhaps non-representative experience) Zelda also has a much larger female fanbase than most major gaming franchises of its size, so it's surprising to me that the system that launched with a big new Zelda didn't do so hot with women.

But then, the numbers don't lie. I know several women who bought a Switch primarily because of Zelda, but I highly doubt Nintendo is incorrect in the gender breakdown of its customers.

 

[Sloane]

2. Pocket Camp feels like a full Animal Crossing experience and it's free

Click to shrink...

It really feels like exactly the opposite, at least to me. It has not soul, no life, it's almost nothing but grind. Somewhat fun for a couple of days but it's almost as far removed from the full Animal Crossing experience as it can get.

 

[Coricus]

Pokemon Go caused a rise in Pokemon players, so I don't see why a bump wouldn't happen, especially since IIRC Nintendo stated that their Animal Crossing app was supposed to interact with a console title. If Pocket Camp ends up patching in interactivity, that might nudge people over even more.

 

[ghostship]

Oh, I'm not sure. That certainly could be the case. I'm just saying I think Nintendo wants PC to be a standalone money-making machine and the trickle into Switch is more of a secondary aim.

Click to shrink...

The smartphone initiative was announced with the specific aim of driving their dedicated games device business, something that was reiterated at the most recent financial briefing.

We don't necessarily have to take these announcements at face value, of course, and they have also said they want it to be a "pillar of revenue" in and of itself, but that's their official stance.

 

[AdropOFvenom]

I don't think you'd want a port of a mobile game on Switch, you'd want an original new title.

The idea of Nintendo's mobile efforts seems to be as a gateway into Nintendo's main ecosystem (The Switch), a port doesn't do anything for that goal since well, they already have the game.

I also think Nintendo is being cautious about blurring the line between Mobile Games and Switch games, you really haven't seen a bunch of F2P mobile ports work their way over onto Switch yet.

I would suspect Animal Crossing is high up on Nintendo's to-do list though. But the team that typically made those games is also the Splatoon 1/2 team so if they're once again doing that project, it would seem to be in very early development. I suspect such a title would be a 2019 title moreso then 2018.

 

[Mr Swine]

I think Animal Crossing is going to be released on Switch third year. Next year should be Super Smash Bros and a 2D Mario game while Pokemon is for 2019

 

[MidiPour]

I think it really depends on a few things:
- Cost and availability of the Switch by the time Animal Crossing Switch releases.
- Whether there'll be an even more portable Switch than the current more.
- How much Pocket Camp satiates the need for a Animal Crossing game; is it more like Pokemon GO where it's different enough from the main series, or more faithful like Fire Emblem Heroes or Super Mario Run?
- The marketing for Animal Crossing Switch.

Thread posted on behalf of SouplexAnd are there any other widely acclaimed franchises that also have a majority female player-base to compare against?

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There doesn't seem to be too much information online as far as I checked. Would be surprised if the Pokemon series isn't a 50/50 split. I looked to see whether Kirby had any appeal to a female demographic, because of outward appeal of the character. There's no sales data that I could find on demographics. Other sim games on the 3DS probably have had a majority female audience, such as Tomodachi Life, Harvest Moon, and Story of Seasons.

I'd also want to see the breakdown for anime games, both JRPGS and VNs, such as with Persona, Zero Escape, Danganronpa and Steins;gate. Also the same with Level 5's catalog of games.

 

[eyeball_kid]

There was a report mentioned in the other thread about Switch demographics that Xbox's female userbase is about 40% and PS4 is probably similar or higher, so this may be a more complicated issue than just console vs mobile for female gamers. This might have something to do with Switch stock issues and earlier adopters being more male (I don't know if that's even true, just what I kept seeing mentioned).

But to your point, would they really bother to pick up a Switch if the mobile version gives them 70 or 80% of the experience? It may elevate the IP in the mindshare, but I don't see it funneling mobile players to the Switch unless it worked in tandem with a Switch version.

 

[Coricus]

I think Animal Crossing is going to be released on Switch third year. Next year should be Super Smash Bros and a 2D Mario game while Pokemon is for 2019

Click to shrink...

I'm really starting to think Smash and Animal Crossing are both going to be Year 3, complete with people worrying the entire time they're not announced. Pokemon is going to be 2019 if they slip up but 2018 if they're lucky. 2D Mario is. . .something that gets under discussed, actually. I think both it and 2D Zelda actually have a chance of being 2018 titles as IIRC they both have their own teams separate from the 3D ones. 2D Zelda is confirmed to be in development at least, 2D Mario likely is too.

I think their big hitters are going to sprawl out very differently over the first three years than people expect. But they will be there eventually.

 

[benji2361]

I'd love to have AC on the Switch, but we can't have it all in the first year either. Nintendo needs to spread it's IPs out across the console's lifetime to keep sales strong. Plus I mean the Animal Crossing formula seems to be perfect for the mobile gaming market. It has always been designed to play in short bursts, doing the same things daily, micro quests, real time waiting etc. I can also see why they focused on this market first before the Switch. Sure there are 7 million Switch units out there but how many million smartphones? Capture new and old players with the mobile game and then sell that many more AC:Switch copies.

Sorry if this post is all over the place!

 

[Coricus]

There was a report mentioned in the other thread about Switch demographics that Xbox's female userbase is about 40% and PS4 is probably similar or higher, so this may be a more complicated issue than just console vs mobile for female gamers. This might have something to do with Switch stock issues and earlier adopters being more male (I don't know if that's even true, just what I kept seeing mentioned).

But to your point, would they really bother to pick up a Switch if the mobile version gives them 70 or 80% of the experience? It may elevate the IP in the mindshare, but I don't see it funneling mobile players to the Switch unless it worked in tandem with a Switch version.

Click to shrink...

Which actually goes back to the initial mention that the at the time "Animal Crossing mobile app" would connect with a console Animal Crossing game.

Granted, Pocket Camp seems to have undergone a massive revamp between the initial investor slides and now, but if they intend to retain even the most basic outline they gave of the app then that's exactly what they're doing.

 

[CopperPuppy]

2. Pocket Camp feels like a full Animal Crossing experience and it's free, better for casuals to play that than spend 300$ + 60$ on a new console

Click to shrink...

Whoa, really? I've not heard this but I haven't read very many impressions.

 

[Geg]

Nogami's team just released Splatoon 2 a few months ago. If they are working on a Switch AC game it probably isn't very far along in development.

 

[Deleted member 11926]

Do we know if the animal crossing team was developing AC: PC? If so, we will probably not have a new AC next year, unless they just make a beefed up port of AC:PC, lol.

EDIT: I mean, if there was another team responsible for AC:PC

 

[Deleted member 2793]

Whoa, really? I've not heard this but I haven't read very many impressions.

Click to shrink...

Talking more about a casual player perspective. lol It's not the "full game", but I can see many players thinking it's "full enough".

 

[Souplex]

Other sim games on the 3DS probably have had a majority female audience, such as Tomodachi Life, Harvest Moon, and Story of Seasons.

Click to shrink...

This reminded me of a post I came across while researching this thread. Sim games seem to be very popular in general. I wonder how The Sims breaks down.

Edit: Also apparently Dragon Age stands out?

 

[eyeball_kid]

Which actually goes back to the initial mention that the at the time "Animal Crossing mobile app" would connect with a console Animal Crossing game.

Granted, Pocket Camp seems to have undergone a massive revamp between the initial investor slides and now, but if they intend to retain even the most basic outline they gave of the app then that's exactly what they're doing.

Click to shrink...

I wasn't aware of that; well, that'd be great. I think there'd still have to be some compelling features to move people over, as it sounds like the mobile AC is surprisingly full-featured. Also, I have no idea how long the user engagement is with AC titles or the mobile one in particular, but I'd think they would need to release a Switch version by next year to capitalize on that momentum.

 

[karby]

I believe Animal Crossing Switch will underperform because...

2. Pocket Camp feels like a full Animal Crossing experience and it's free, better for casuals to play that than spend 300$ + 60$ on a new console..

Click to shrink...

No, not really, at least for me. Sure it's fun for a few days, but overall, the experience is kind of shallow, at least compared to New Leaf and the other previous games.

 

[AdropOFvenom]

Do we know if the animal crossing team was developing AC: PC? If so, we will probably not have a new AC next year, unless they just make a beefed up port of AC:PC, lol.

Click to shrink...

I think DeNA usually does most of the actual development of the mobile games with consulation/supervision from the main teams. So no.

But the main Animal Crossing team, as I mentioned, is also the Splatoon 1/2 team. So they just put out a game in July.

 

[Deleted member 11926]

I think DeNA usually does most of the actual development of the mobile games with consulation/supervision from the main teams. So no.

But the main Animal Crossing team, as I mentioned, is also the Splatoon 1/2 team. So they just put out a game in July.

Click to shrink...

Ah, I see. I didn't know that. Oh well, at least we had AC: Plaza for Wii U...

 

[MidiPour]

This reminded me of a post I came across while researching this thread. Sim games seem to be very popular in general. I wonder how The Sims breaks down.

Edit: Also apparently Dragon Age stands out?

Click to shrink...

Just perused the research and holy crap. Dragon Age: Inquisition is nearly 50%, I personally didn't have an interest in playing the game, and am not too aware of the marketing and hype going into it. What's causing those high numbers relative to other games in the genre?

Also, kind of surprised by the low demographic percentage for WoW. Expected if any game would draw a diverse population, it would be the most renowned game in the market.

 

[brinstar]

I've definitely seen casual players on my Twitter feed express excitement that they'll be able to play AC without dropping money for a Switch anytime soon, but I feel like there's always that base of people who are resistant to buying new hardware right off the bat anyway.

When AC Switch comes out and people are posting stories and sharing pics and clips on social media and stuff that's what pulls people in so they can be part of the conversation. A lot of the more casual female players I know have been specifically waiting for AC and Pokemon to hit Switch before jumping in.

 

[Deleted member 2793]

I think DeNA usually does most of the actual development of the mobile games with consulation/supervision from the main teams. So no.

But the main Animal Crossing team, as I mentioned, is also the Splatoon 1/2 team. So they just put out a game in July.

Click to shrink...

Aya Kyogoku (New Leaf's main director) team didn't work on Splatoon. And there's an active Animal Crossing team with Aya as co-producer and Isao Moro, the other NL director, still working on AC games. They just did Happy Home Designer and Welcome amiibo and are probably already working on the next mainline title.

 

[LaydinJinn]

There is no doubt in my mind that a proper Animal Crossing game will launch on Switch, quite possible in 2018.

When they announce the game I am going to hug my Switch so hard.

 

[AdropOFvenom]

Aya Kyogoku (New Leaf's main director) team didn't work on Splatoon. And there's an active Animal Crossing team with Aya as co-producer and Isao Moro, the other NL director, still working on AC games. They just did Happy Home Designer and Welcome amiibo and are probably already working on the next mainline title.

Click to shrink...

Good to know, I'd love to be wrong and the game is further along then I expect it to be.

 

[TheDeep1974]

It really feels like exactly the opposite, at least to me. It has not soul, no life, it's almost nothing but grind. Somewhat fun for a couple of days but it's almost as far removed from the full Animal Crossing experience as it can get.

Click to shrink...

I agree. The game feels like a genetic F2P game with Animal Crossing characters

 

[BeelzeBob]

Aya Kyogoku (New Leaf's main director) team didn't work on Splatoon. And there's an active Animal Crossing team with Aya as co-producer and Isao Moro, the other NL director, still working on AC games. They just did Happy Home Designer and Welcome amiibo and are probably already working on the next mainline title.

Click to shrink...

I did not know that. Still not going to get my hopes up about ti being anytime soon, but that is great to hear.

 

[Inferno]

I've said since before the Switch hit that Animal Crossing would likely be a 2018 release. Maybe even during Spring or Summer. I think that feels right.

 

[Trevelyan]

Animal Crossing, along with Mario, Kart, and Smash are one of Nintendo's truest evergreen titles, so the earlier they can get it out, the greater they'll benefit it from it. I fully expect an Animal Crossing no later than next fall, as they assuredly had one in the works for Wii U for a bit before they moved it to Switch.