• Light/Dark
  • Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.

April 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 15th

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ITT, predict for the NPD April 2018 retail period (April 8-May 5, 2018) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 15th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 8-May 5, 2018 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, May 17th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 5 days later on May 22th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in April:
General April slowing

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

February's results
donny2112 said:
KillerMan91 said:
66% drop means 34% of last year. not 44%

So

PS4: 354k
Switch: 308k
XBO: 299k

Edit. Corrected the numbers
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

So with rounding to nearest 5K, since these are rough estimates based off of % of last year sales, going with 355K, 310K, and 300K for PS4, NSW, and XB1. Thanks! (^_^)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

March 2017 NPD thread
April 2017 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,229
Paging Welfare. If you would be so kind and provide the Wall of number please, we'd be grateful.

Why is everyone prediction so high considering Switch came first last year in the NPD doing 280k granted it was supply constrained. Console don't sell nearly as well as they do in tax season (Feb & March).
 
KillerMan91

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,354
People with really high April predictions. Aside from Switch having it second month in the market and thanks to that having higher than normal April demand (280k last year) no system has even broken 200k barrier this gen. PS4 did 199k in 2014. It's death month.

[NSW] 170K
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 160K

Edit. Seems I was wrong about ''200k barrier''. PS4 did 206k last April. Still larger point stands.
 
Last edited:
Penny Royal

Penny Royal

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
4,158
QLD, Australia
KillerMan91 said:
People with really high April predictions. Aside from Switch having it second month in the market and thanks to that having higher than normal April demand (280k last year) no system has even broken 200k barrier this gen. PS4 did 199k in 2014. It's death month.

[NSW] 170K
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 160K
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

You think PS4 will be that low with GoW moving units, especially Pros?

[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 190K
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
[PS4] 238K
[NSW] 181K
[XB1] 152K

EDIT: Holy shit those predictions, Welfare pls post the April trend as soon as possible.
 
MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,229
Kyser73 said:
You think PS4 will be that low with GoW moving units, especially Pros?

[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 190K
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I can guarantee its going to be closer to 240k than 400k. Just want till Welfare posts historical data.

That said GoW has 15 days tracking what do people predict it's going to do. In my opinion God of War will do 2.2 million.
 
Last edited:
KillerMan91

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,354
Kyser73 said:
You think PS4 will be that low with GoW moving units, especially Pros?

[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 190K
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

There have been big releases before too in April and May this gen and yet hw sales have been generally anemic (For example PS4 sold 207k in May 2016 with Uncharted 4 launch). GoW with Pro model boost (and Fortnite) will make PS4 hit its best April but nothing more. Of course this is just my opinion/prediction. I don't mind being wrong if that means way higher numbers lol
 
Peek-a-boo!

Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,192
Woodbridge
[NSW] 248K
[PS4] 320K
[XB1] 210K

As far as I am concerned, you cannot even buy a God of War PS4 Pro bundle anymore so, I would imagine it sold incredibly well as well as the slim model having a noticeable boost too.

Switch down 20% due to no new (Nintendo) software, and Xbox One down 30% after a few months of price cuts and free PUBG included with every Xbox One X purchase.

I reckon it's going to be a month that sees all three consoles combined making up ~800K units, which would be nice to see after all three collectively sold a shy over 900K in March.

p.s. Slightly decreased my PS4 prediction.
 
Last edited:
chobel

chobel

Attempting to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,493
[PS4] 280K
[NSW] 190K
[XB1] 210K
 

Deleted member 24550

Ac
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
2,398
[PS4] 230K
[NSW] 240K
[XB1] 180K

Out of the ass justifications: since a healthy competitor arrived on the scene, the general console sales have been buoyed upwards, in addition, GoW is the first actual must have Sony published title (imo), so we'll be seeing a bump over usual April numbers. Switch demand is still trucking along, Labo will have generated some interest and with summer approaching, a portable console becomes more interesting. Xbox had a good run. (Kidding, but after the release of Gamepass and Sea of Thieves it's back to quiet).
 
Last edited:
Majiebeast

Majiebeast

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,090
The biggest things for this month are.

1. God of War sales will it set a new record for Sony(most likely)
2. How much did Iron Galaxy's Extinction bomb.
3. Labo sales.
 
MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,229
With the information Microsoft released how many percent is North America sales? Does it affect the estimates for Worldwide sells?
 
score01

score01

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,699
[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 260K
[XB1] 200K

Shouldn't we also start having monthly MAU and Engagement prediction threads as well?
 
kowalski

kowalski

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,507
Is there a reason for people to be optimistic about this April?!
God of War is big but absolutely not "+400K PS4 in April" big!
 
Jade1962

Jade1962

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
4,259
I think predictions would be better if previous April (insert month) sales were in the OP instead of the previous month. Like knowing October sales isn't as informative to predicting November sales as knowing the previous November sales.
 
MrTired

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,229
Jade1962 said:
I think predictions would be better if previous April (insert month) sales were in the OP instead of the previous month. Like knowing October sales isn't as informative to predicting November sales as knowing the previous November sales.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
It's there though, you just have to click the link.
 

Deleted member 4976

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
KillerMan91 said:
People with really high April predictions. Aside from Switch having it second month in the market and thanks to that having higher than normal April demand (280k last year) no system has even broken 200k barrier this gen. PS4 did 199k in 2014. It's death month.

[NSW] 170K
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 160K
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Pretty sure PS4 did more than 200k last year as well.

[PS4] 265K
[NSW] 195K
[XB1] 165K
 
Wise

Wise

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,228
[NSW] 210K
[PS4] 320K
[XB1] 220K

Edit: My numbers were a bit too high <_<
 
lordlad

lordlad

Banned for trolling with an alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,940
Singapore
anecdotal but some people i knew from the states bought a PS4 due to GoW so there's that.
 
Elandyll

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,805
[PS4] 250K
[NSW] 200K
[XB1] 180K

GoW will have provided a good boost between slims and Pros, but it's still April with just 4 weeks... Tough one.

Will wait on retail insiders insight to adjust further... Anyone seen Abdiel lately?
 
Last edited:
Expy

Expy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,860
[PS4] 312K
[NSW] 217K
[XB1] 195K

Generally better than average April due to mainly God of War and Labo releases
 
You must log in or register to reply here.