April 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 14th

Toni

Avenger
Nov 13, 2017
1,365
Orlando, Florida
[NSW] 250K
[PS4] 280K
[XB1] 150K

PS4 gets some hardware boost from Days Gone. Switch remains stable in the slower months, solid hold from Xbox in its slowest months of the 8th gen.

*Revised
 
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jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,081
[NSW] 250K
[PS4] 280K
[XB1] 150K

PS4 gets some hardware boost from Days Gone. Switch remains stable in the slower months, solid hold from Xbox in its slowest months of the 8th gen.

*Revised
I'm thinking that too for PS4, but not confident that it will beat out the Switch for 1st.
 

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,083
Chicago
[NSW] 230K
[PS4] 170K
[XB1] 135K

My morale for this thread is incredibly low. I'm guessing that I'm not alone.
 
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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
318
My morale for this thread is incredibly low. I'm guessing that I'm not alone.
There was one month some years ago where we didn't get one of the hardware numbers for a couple of months until it was part of a quarterly report (+ some math). There are still those here who remember the Apocalypse of the November 2006 thread with 1) loss of the massive monthly game numbers, 2) Youtube teaser trailer bringing massive unneeded attention to the thread, and 3) banning of the major posters of the data. This could all end at any time, of course, but this could also just be due to the annual "Nothing's happening in April/May" drolls.

In any case, it'd be best to heed the Mod warning in the OP about not spreading any data that does come out. That's typically been what draws down the scrutiny most is the loudness of the data being released. Quiet data release is easier to turn a blind eye to.
 

Sterok

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,679
[NSW] 215K
[PS4] 160K
[XB1] 101K

Mortal Kombat > Days Gone, but not by very much.
 
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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
318
ResetERA Aggregate Predictions - Apr-2019

1. NSW - 235K (stddev: 24K)
2. PS4 - 186K (stddev: 30K)
3. XB1 - 138K (stddev: 24K)
 
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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
318
Really slow month. :D If Benji is reading, really appreciated his sales report vid. As always, Welfare's notes are also a great tool for standard trends. Really helped inform my own predictions this month. Will see if it makes a difference in results. :P Anyone want to guess how the Xbox One SAD model will impact May? Push more people to buy the happy model, or is there a market for a more expensive, disc-less system out there?
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
735
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
i don't dare to give my opinion or estimation about the hardware performance of a product novelty from a respected and generous customer of the npd group*.
this could only lead to further tensions, tears and traumas.
i'd like to talk about happy things.


* At NPD we’re always innovating. And we believe in the power of numbers. To help our clients solve complex business challenges and reach smarter decisions, we partner with a range of industry leaders to strengthen our offering.
 
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Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,523
Really slow month. :D If Benji is reading, really appreciated his sales report vid. As always, Welfare's notes are also a great tool for standard trends. Really helped inform my own predictions this month. Will see if it makes a difference in results. :P Anyone want to guess how the Xbox One SAD model will impact May? Push more people to buy the happy model, or is there a market for a more expensive, disc-less system out there?
Thanks!

Along with the SAD box, GameStop had another trade in deal for the One X for the first half of the May. Depending on how well the 2 week April price cut went, May could be flat MOM.
 

Calamari41

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,524
I'm a bit confused on the numbers talk going forward. I get that Era doesn't want one of their users to be the one breaking/leaking the numbers on the board, but are we not allowed to mention or discuss leaked numbers if they're leaked elsewhere? Like if someone not associated with Era tweets the numbers out, are we still not allowed to talk about them?
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,417
I'm a bit confused on the numbers talk going forward. I get that Era doesn't want one of their users to be the one breaking/leaking the numbers on the board, but are we not allowed to mention or discuss leaked numbers if they're leaked elsewhere? Like if someone not associated with Era tweets the numbers out, are we still not allowed to talk about them?
The idea is not to promote such leaks, so maybe it could be in one of those hidden texts that only users can see? Or a related link in hidden text.
 

Doctor Mario

Member
Mar 12, 2019
23
I'm a bit confused on the numbers talk going forward. I get that Era doesn't want one of their users to be the one breaking/leaking the numbers on the board, but are we not allowed to mention or discuss leaked numbers if they're leaked elsewhere? Like if someone not associated with Era tweets the numbers out, are we still not allowed to talk about them?
I think it's okay to talk about if it's from another place.

ERA has no responsibility for NPD data shared elsewhere and NPD can't really demand that people don't talk about here if it's public on the internet.
 

sheepysheep

Member
Nov 19, 2018
153
while there's leaf there's hope, with primtim's ruse and marrymay's blossom, all the flowers of the ancelles' garden
Tell me till my thrillme comes! I will not break the seal. I am enjoying it still, I swear I am!
I'm the Stitch in his Baskside You'd be Nought Without Mom
 

HaremKing

Member
Dec 20, 2018
371
Oh wow, we've really upped the obfuscation level I see. Well, good luck to anyone that sorts that out.