April 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 14th

Myriotes

Member
Jan 30, 2018
308
Germany
Benji just wrote the same about 20 minutes ago on twitter.

Did they market the game too little (or wrongly)? Do they need to pay some high-profile streamer and hope it picks up some good WoM? The roadmap I saw somewhere did look quite nice.
 

Deader2818

Member
Oct 25, 2017
551
New Jersey
Benji just wrote the same about 20 minutes ago on twitter.

Did they market the game too little (or wrongly)? Do they need to pay some high-profile streamer and hope it picks up some good WoM? The roadmap I saw somewhere did look quite nice.
I think its just the first Rage just didnt have much interest around it. Marketing is there.

Days gone might have played a roll since PS4 users just got a huge open world game.

Might it did well digitally to make up for it though.
 

KennyX

Member
Nov 21, 2018
1,229
Minecraft will be massive in May with the first ever platform wide sale for the game. Top 5 maybe.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,668
Benji just wrote the same about 20 minutes ago on twitter.

Did they market the game too little (or wrongly)? Do they need to pay some high-profile streamer and hope it picks up some good WoM? The roadmap I saw somewhere did look quite nice.
It has like a 70 on Metacritic and people didn't get hyped for "generic 2014 open world with good shooting"
 

Myriotes

Member
Jan 30, 2018
308
Germany
Some just for fun software predictions:

#1 MK 11, #2 Days Gone (both entering the YTD chart)
#3 World War Z (not entering)
#4 Division (climbing to #1 in the YTD chart)
#5 SSBU, #6 MLB

SSBU takes over Jump Force in the YTD chart.

EDIT: forgot that World War Z does not include digital and is not full-priced.

(and greatly underestimated MLB)
 
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OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
318
NPD Prediction Results - April 2019

Units

1. Lelouch0612 - 16,000
2. Kaveri - 23,000
2. wilmbreak - 23,000
4. Doctor Mario - 24,000
5. Sterok - 29,000
6. James - 35,000
6. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 35,000
6. gargles - 35,000
9. CosmicBolt - 37,000
10. kyo2004 - 38,000
11. Welfare - 42,000
12. Bitch Pudding - 43,000
12. MasterChumly - 43,000
14. Astrogamer - 44,000
15. Darth Smurf X - 48,000
16. MrTired - 49,000
17. donny2112 - 51,000
18. DeuceGamer - 52,000
19. El Manco - 53,000
20. cakely - 54,000
21. Moltres006 - 58,000
21. score01 - 58,000
23. Zedark - 59,000
24. Elandyll - 63,000
24. KillerMan91 - 63,000
24. MANUELF - 63,000
27. Keith Stat - 64,000
28. Myriotes - 66,000
29. Piston - 70,000
30. Bundy - 73,000
30. Wetflix - 73,000
32. HighJump - 79,000
32. plusaflag - 79,000
34. Hammer24 - 80,000
35. 404LinkNotFound - 84,000
36. Davy - 94,000
37. Jeean - 95,000
38. jroc74 - 105,000
39. Menx64 - 114,000
40. Slarvax - 115,000
41. Wandu - 119,000
42. Pachter - 124,000
42. TurnoftheCentury - 124,000
44. pitseleh - 139,000
44. slavesnyder - 139,000
46. ThatRandomCliff - 146,000
47. DanR93 - 149,000
48. WestEgg - 154,000
49. julian - 169,000
50. Gulfwarvet - 176,000
51. Andri - 179,000
52. SinCItyAssassin - 184,000
53. Shakerovic - 190,000
54. Toni - 199,000
55. TaySan - 209,000
56. Sangetsu-II - 225,000
57. neroxyr - 244,000


Points
Code:
     April 2019                      Overall 2019 Top (3/4)
01.  Lelouch0612            123.82   Lelouch0612              354.64
02.  wilmbreak              118.65   Kaveri                   338.23
03.  Kaveri                 116.71   CosmicBolt               320.74
04.  Doctor Mario           112.13   kyo2004                  317.97
05.  Sterok                 110.96   Andromeda                316.60
06.  Ryng Manuel Tolu       107.95   Welfare                  316.23
07.  James                  107.52   Myriotes                 315.12
08.  gargles                106.25   wilmbreak                314.10
09.  CosmicBolt             101.49   Zedark                   312.65
10.  kyo2004                101.35   James                    310.83
11.  donny2112              100.45   WestEgg                  308.81
12.  MasterChumly           100.40   Sterok                   304.71
13.  Darth Smurf X           99.33   donny2112                303.83
14.  Astrogamer              99.30   Ryng Manuel Tolu         303.00
15.  Bitch Pudding           99.06   gargles                  302.19
16.  Welfare                 98.93   Jeean                    301.03
17.  MrTired                 98.73   Hammer24                 300.94
18.  DeuceGamer              98.03   MrTired                  300.64
19.  El Manco                97.88   KillerMan91              299.66
20.  Moltres006              96.68   score01                  298.24
21.  Zedark                  96.37   Astrogamer               296.61
22.  KillerMan91             95.79   MANUELF                  295.16
23.  cakely                  95.48   404LinkNotFound          295.11
24.  score01                 94.84   TurnoftheCentury         294.83
25.  Keith Stat              94.52   Moltres006               293.78
26.  Myriotes                94.37   Bitch Pudding            293.54
27.  Elandyll                94.22   Darth Smurf X            292.86
28.  Wetflix                 94.09   MasterChumly             292.62
29.  plusaflag               92.98   DeuceGamer               292.05
30.  MANUELF                 92.93   useyourloaf              291.88
31.  Bundy                   91.97   Elandyll                 290.82
32.  Piston                  91.49   El Manco                 290.24
33.  HighJump                90.92   Wander_                  290.21
34.  Hammer24                90.89   Slarvax                  290.15
35.  404LinkNotFound         87.84   pitseleh                 289.53
36.  Davy                    86.76   slavesnyder              289.28
37.  Jeean                   85.78   cakely                   287.31
38.  jroc74                  83.62   Keith Stat               287.21
39.  Menx64                  82.93   DanR93                   283.13
40.  Pachter                 82.80   jroc74                   283.06
41.  Slarvax                 80.25   Corporate Clown          282.62
42.  Wandu                   78.82   ThatRandomCliff          282.15
43.  TurnoftheCentury        78.61   ConfusedGamer            279.24
44.  pitseleh                77.41   HighJump                 277.88
45.  slavesnyder             74.79   Nocturnal                277.85
46.  DanR93                  71.64   Davy                     277.66
47.  ThatRandomCliff         70.26   Sangetsu-II              273.57
48.  WestEgg                 70.07   julian                   272.62
49.  Andri                   69.91   plusaflag                270.48
50.  Gulfwarvet              69.50   Pachter                  263.95
Congratulations, Lelouch0612! :D

Of course, Toumari had the real best guess. And thanks to sheep everywhere!
 

Myriotes

Member
Jan 30, 2018
308
Germany
Not really happy with my numbers, overestimated PS4 greatly. Lost a lot of points there.

Reposting some software timelines, because it would be a shame to have them "lost" in the public release thread. Maybe I will do them for the other charts as well.

NPD US Software - Year-To-Date Timeline - 2019

Code:
+--------+-+-------+-------+-------+-------+----------+
| YTD    | | 19-04 | 19-03 | 19-02 | 19-01 | YY-MM-DD |
+--------+-+-------+-------+-------+-------+----------+
| KH3    | |   1.  |   1.  |   1.  |   1.  | 19-01-29 |
| MK11   | |   2.  |   --  |   --  |   --  | 19-04-23 |
| TD2    |^|   3.  |   2.  |   --  |   --  | 19-03-12 |
| ANTHEM |^|   4.  |   3.  |   2.  |   --  | 19-02-22 |
| RE2    | |   5.  |   4.  |   3.  |   2.  | 19-01-25 |
| SSBU   |*|   6.  |   7.  |   6.  |   5.  | 18-12-07 |
| RDR2   | |   7.  |   5.  |   5.  |   6.  | 18-10-26 |
| SEKIRO |^|   8.  |   8.  |   --  |   --  | 19-03-22 |
| JFORCE | |   9.  |   6.  |   4.  |   --  | 19-02-15 |
| MLB-19 | |  10.  |   --  |   --  |   --  | 19-03-26 |
+--------+-+-------+-------+-------+-------+----------+
| BO4    |^|   x.  |   9.  |   7.  |  4.   | 18-10-12 |
| NSMBUD |*|   x.  |  10.  |   8.  |  3.   | 19-01-11 |
| NBA-19 | |   x.  |   x.  |   9.  |  8.   | 18-09-11 |
| AC7    | |   x.  |   x.  |  10.  |  7.   | 19-01-18 |
| MK8    |*|   x.  |   x.  |   x.  |  9.   | 17-04-28 |
| GTA5   | |   x.  |   x.  |   x.  |  10.  | 13-09-17 |
+--------+-+-------+-------+-------+-------+----------+
* Digital sales not included
^ PC digital sales not included


NPD US Software - Year-To-Date Timeline - 2019

Code:
+--------+-+-------+-------+-------+-------+----------+
| YTD    | | 19-04 | 19-03 | 19-02 | 19-01 | YY-MM-DD |
+--------+-+-------+-------+-------+-------+----------+
| KH3    | |   1.  |   1.  |   1.  |   1.  | 19-01-29 |
| MK11   | |   2.  |   --  |   --  |   --  | 19-04-23 |
| TD2    |^|   3.  |   2.  |   --  |   --  | 19-03-12 |
| ANTHEM |^|   4.  |   3.  |   2.  |   --  | 19-02-22 |
| RE2    | |   5.  |   4.  |   3.  |   2.  | 19-01-25 |
| SSBU   |*|   6.  |   7.  |   6.  |   5.  | 18-12-07 |
| RDR2   | |   7.  |   5.  |   5.  |   6.  | 18-10-26 |
| SEKIRO |^|   8.  |   8.  |   --  |   --  | 19-03-22 |
| JFORCE | |   9.  |   6.  |   4.  |   --  | 19-02-15 |
| MLB-19 | |  10.  |   --  |   --  |   --  | 19-03-26 |
+--------+-+-------+-------+-------+-------+----------+
| BO4    |^|   x.  |   9.  |   7.  |  4.   | 18-10-12 |
| NSMBUD |*|   x.  |  10.  |   8.  |  3.   | 19-01-11 |
| NBA-19 | |   x.  |   x.  |   9.  |  8.   | 18-09-11 |
| AC7    | |   x.  |   x.  |  10.  |  7.   | 19-01-18 |
| MK8    |*|   x.  |   x.  |   x.  |  9.   | 17-04-28 |
| GTA5   | |   x.  |   x.  |   x.  |  10.  | 13-09-17 |
+--------+-+-------+-------+-------+-------+----------+
* Digital sales not included
^ PC digital sales not included