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April 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 14th

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
Official Staff Communication
Hey everyone, just a polite reminder: Please do not use this thread or platform as a vehicle to leak proprietary NPD data. This kind of leak has originated from here in the past, and proliferated widely in a way that became quite problematic for everyone involved. We are asking y'all to help deescalate the situation and avoid having such data spread from here. We don't want to ban anyone but that will have to be the next step if things do not calm down. Thank you for your understanding.

ITT, predict for the NPD April 2019 retail period (April 7-May 4, 2019) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
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ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
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Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 14. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 6-May 4, 2019 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Results Release: Thursday, May 16 @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread with physical+digital posted 5 days later on Mayl 21st ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K      [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000   [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000    [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in April:
Annual April/May decline

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

March's Resuts
NSW: ~385K
PS4: ~255K
XB1: ~220K

March 2018 NPD thread
April 2018 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
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plusaflag

plusaflag

User requested ban
Banned
Jan 7, 2019
625
Here we go again:

[NSW] 246K
[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 114K

edit: scaled down everything by 20% after reading Welfare's post.
edit2: revised PS4 up and XB1 down this time after watching Benji's prediction video for the month.
 
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SinCityAssassin

SinCityAssassin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
Considering the recent moderation actions and the sales insider exodus, I sincerely hope a lot of you will fuckin' be civil when we do get any actual info in the coming weeks that pertain to any sales data. Because that was the logical conclusion to the behavior I've been preaching against every other month.


[NSW] 285K
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 160K
 
Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
[NSW] 218K
[PS4] 155K
[XB1] 132K

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of March and April. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because March is a 5 week month while April is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for April to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
Xbox 360 April: 236K / 4 = 59,000

Weekly average -20%

PS3 March: 337K / 5 = 67,400
PS3 April: 172K / 4 = 43,000

Weekly average -36%

3DS March: 225K / 5 = 45,000
3DS April: 128K / 4 = 32,000

Weekly average -29%

Notable Releases in April

Xbox 360
Kinect Star Wars 320GB Bundle $449

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 March: 261K / 5 = 52,200
Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500

Weekly average -38%

PS3 March: 211K / 5 = 42,200
PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500

Weekly average -40%

3DS March: 230K / 5 = 46,000
3DS April: 114K / 4 = 28,500

Weekly average -38%

Notable Releases in April

Xbox 360
Injustice: Gods Among Us [4 weeks]
Dead Island: Riptide [2 weeks]

PS3
Injustice: Gods Among Us [4 weeks]
Dead Island: Riptide [2 weeks]

Code: 
2014

Xbox One March: 311K / 5 = 62,200
Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750

Weekly average -54%

PS4 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750

Weekly average -33%

3DS March: 159K / 5 = 31,800
3DS April: 106K / 4 = 26,500

Weekly average -17%

Xbox 360 March: 111K / 5 = 22,200
Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750

Weekly average -20%

PS3 March: 67K / 5 = 13,400
PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750

Weekly average -35%

Notable Releases in April

3DS
Disney Magical World Special Themed Peach Pink 2DS $129 [4 weeks]

Xbox 360
Titanfall [483,000]

Code: 
2015

Xbox One March: 229K / 5 = 45,800
Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average +2%

PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750

Weekly average -34%

3DS March: 265K / 5 = 53,000
3DS April: 116K / 4 = 29,000

Weekly average -45%

Notable Releases in April

Xbox One
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $125 towards Xbox One [3 weeks]
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [1 week]

Mortal Kombat X [>516k]

PS4
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]

Mortal Kombat X [>734k]

Code: 
2016

Xbox One March: 242K / 5 = 48,400
Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000

Weekly average -13%

PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750

Weekly average -34%

3DS March: 171K / 5 = 34,200
3DS April: 75K / 4 = 18,750

Weekly average -45%

Notable Releases in April

Xbox One
$50 price cut on all models March 22nd - April 30th (28 days in April NPD / 4 weeks)
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [3 weeks]

Quantum Break 500GB White Bundle $299

Dark Souls 3 [3 weeks] [151K]
Quantum Break [4 weeks] [109K]

PS4
Dark Souls 3 [3 weeks] [353K]
Ratchet & Clank [3 weeks] [207.5K - 237K]

Code: 
2017

Xbox One March: 244K / 5 = 48,800
Xbox One April: 110K / 4 = 27,500

Weekly average -44%

PS4 March: 397K / 5 = 79,400
PS4 April: 206K / 4 = 51,500

Weekly average -35%

Notable Events in April

PS4
PS4 Slim 1TB $299 [2 weeks]

Persona 5 [4 weeks]

Code: 
2018

Switch March: 310K / 5 = 62,000
Switch April: 170K / 4 = 42,500

Weekly average -31%

Xbox One March: 300K / 5 = 60,000
Xbox One April: 130K / 4 = 32,500

Weekly average -46%

PS4 March: 355K / 5 = 71,000
PS4 April: 325K / 4 = 81,250

Weekly average +14%

Notable Events in April

Switch
LABO Variety Kit $69 [3 weeks]
LABO Robot Kit $79 [3 weeks]
Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze [1 week]

Xbox One
Madden 18 free with Xbox One S and X April 22 - May 1 [GameStop] | 10 days
Madden 18 free with Xbox One S and X April 29 - May 5 [Best Buy] | 7 days

PS4
PS4 Pro God of War 4 1TB limited bundle $399 [3 weeks]

God of War 4 [3 weeks] [Can round to 1.9M with bundles and digital]

Code: 
2019 March Weekly Average

Switch: 383K / 5 = 76,600
PS4: 253K / 5 = 50,600
Xbox One: 221K / 5 = 44,200

Notable Events in April

Switch
Mortal Kombat 11 [2 weeks]

Xbox One
Xbox One X $449 / Xbox One S $249 + Apex Legends Founders Pack [April 13 - April 27]

Mortal Kombat 11 [2 weeks]

PS4
Mortal Kombat 11 [2 weeks]
Days Gone [2 weeks]

Notes
Not much to say besides console sales continue to slow down from March, but at a faster rate.

Xbox
Xbox One has had plenty of deals sprinkled throughout the years and April has seen a couple of them. April 2015 saw massive trade in deals for the Xbox One at GameStop and Best Buy and April 2016 continued the $50 price drop from March. This helped sales stabilize from their previous March's. April 2014, April 2017, and April 2018 did not have significant deals and collapsed in sales. For context, the Xbox One always has a massive event happen in March so that is why April can either be a decent hold if it has another great deal or will slow massively if there isn't a deal that year.

April 2019 has a $50 price cut for 2 weeks, so 2016 would be a decent comparable. Actual weekly average won't be as close, but the price cut can help keep sales from falling to the over 40% drops of the past couple of years.

The Xbox One so far averages a decrease of -31%, with a rise of +2% (2015) and a maximum decrease of -46% (2014). Remove 2015 and the average drops to -39%.

Playstation
The PS4 had been very consistent in its drop from March to April before 2018. An average of -34%, with a minimum of -33% (2014) and maximum of -35% (2017).

God of War had different ideas and it brought PS4 sales to increase a massive +14% on top of an already great March. It was the best April of the generation and best since the Wii's 340K in 2009. Obviously this event is a massive outlier, but shows that such events are possible. You just need the biggest Playstation first party exclusive in the US to be an amazing 94 Metacritic GOTY.

2019 is pretty much like every other year. Nothing that will absolutely push sales in April.

Nintendo
The 3DS averages a decrease of -35%, with a minimum of -17% (2014) and a maximum of -55% (2015 and 2016).

Switch is currently selling incredibly well off the back of software released in 2018, but who's to say how long that can keep up, since we are now entering the slowest periods of the year.

Recap
April is a very clear drop from March.. Weekly average drop from March is ~30% or more.

The biggest April ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 714K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 360K in 2007.

The biggest April ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 325K in 2019. Second biggest? PS4 again with 206K in 2017.
 
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Deleted member 46922

User requested account closure
Banned
Aug 21, 2018
595
[NSW] 245K
[PS4] 185K
[XB1] 145K

But seeing as I am at the bottom of the list in predicting this stuff, I don't expect to be even close. :)
 
Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
jroc74 said:
I thought the issue was the actual numbers. I thought using percentages were fine.
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Percentages apparently aren't allowed either now.

The easiest solution is for the numbers to simply appear off site first. Again, not the first time. Twitter and the chartz forums were places that got numbers first for about half a year.
 

Bundy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
20,931
[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 130K

Software:
1. Mortal Kombat 11 (PS4/XBO/NSW)
2. Days Gone
 
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julian

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,740
SinCItyAssassin said:
Considering the recent moderation actions and the sales insider exodus, I sincerely hope a lot of you will fuckin' be civil when we do get any actual info in the coming weeks that pertain to any sales data. Because that was the logical conclusion to the behavior I've been preaching against every other month.


[NSW] 285K
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 160K
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I feel like I missed something. I saw the numbers leak - which seemed like an unforced error - but I've no idea why some of the insiders fled.

....what'd we do?

[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 175K
 
SinCityAssassin

SinCityAssassin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
julian said:
I feel like I missed something. I saw the numbers leak - which seemed like an unforced error - but I've no idea why some of the insiders fled.

....what'd we do?
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People have been using numbers as fodder for every discussion, a lot of insight on market trends are more met with undue hostility if it's not representing the brand they side with at a good light or they just outright defy the person's credibility. And this is more a broke the camel's back thing than anything real major pushback from last month's numbers. Cause this had been going on for a long while.
 
Wetflix

Wetflix

Member
Mar 16, 2019
116
SinCItyAssassin said:
People have been using numbers as fodder for every discussion, a lot of insight on market trends are more met with undue hostility if it's not representing the brand they side with at a good light or they just outright defy the person's credibility. And this is more a broke the camel's back thing than anything real major pushback from last month's numbers. Cause this had been going on for a long while.
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It's a shame too. I feel like those who were driven off by the console warring discussion should come back because I think this is what they wanted to happen..
 
julian

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,740
Wetflix said:
It's a shame too. I feel like those who were driven off by the console warring discussion should come back because I think this is what they wanted to happen..
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I would hope not. Wishing to kill any insightful conversation seems like a shitty goal. I liked last year, when everyone was winning. Honestly, this year doesn't look so bad for everyone either, you just have to keep expectations in check as to what end of gen sales look like for Sony and Microsoft.
 
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