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April 2021 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 18th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
No results yet? Saw that the thread has some new replies, but I guess it'll still be a while.
In any case, given that the total hardware gross didn't even break $300M, I do wonder if April even saw total Switch, PS5, & XBS sales breach a million units.
In any case, given that the total hardware gross didn't even break $300M, I do wonder if April even saw total Switch, PS5, & XBS sales breach a million units.
OP
OP
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 3 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.
NPD Prediction Results - April 2021
Units
1. Shadow of the Void
2. Limabean01
3. GamingCJ
Points
Congratulations, Shadow of the Void! :D
NPD Prediction Results - April 2021
Units
1. Shadow of the Void
2. Limabean01
3. GamingCJ
Points
Code:
April 2021 Overall 2021 Top (3/4)
01. Shadow of the Void ---.-- m051293 ---.--
02. GamingCJ ---.-- DarkDetective ---.--
03. Ariakon44 ---.-- Lelouch0612 ---.--
04. ---.-- P Diddy ---.--
05. ---.-- slavesnyder ---.--
06. ---.-- Shadow of the Void ---.--
07. ---.-- Limabean01 ---.--
08. ---.-- Pachter ---.--
09. ---.-- Astrogamer ---.--
10. ---.-- Xevross ---.--
11. ---.-- Welfare ---.--
12. ---.-- KillerMan91 ---.--
13. ---.-- Darth Smurf X ---.--
14. ---.-- Zedark ---.--
15. ---.-- esteh ---.--
16. ---.-- TurnoftheCentury ---.--
17. ---.-- Worldhopper Hoid ---.--
18. ---.-- Fatih656 ---.--
19. ---.-- Jeean ---.--
20. ---.-- El Manco ---.--
21. ---.-- Corporate Clown ---.--
22. ---.-- 404LinkNotFound ---.--
23. ---.-- James ---.--
24. ---.-- Slarvax ---.--
25. ---.-- RyngΓäó ---.--
26. ---.-- pitseleh ---.--
27. ---.-- jroc74 ---.--
28. ---.-- IronTed ---.--
29. ---.-- wilmbreak ---.--
30. ---.-- Sterok ---.--
31. ---.-- Kaveri ---.--
32. ---.-- Myriotes ---.--
33. ---.-- DeuceGamer ---.--
34. ---.-- PachecoMD ---.--
35. ---.-- Peek-a-boo! ---.--
36. ---.-- WestEgg ---.--
37. ---.-- Joxer ---.--
38. ---.-- Colocho ---.--
39. ---.-- Quintus ---.--
40. ---.-- julian ---.--
41. ---.-- donny2112 ---.--
42. ---.-- kowalski ---.--
43. ---.-- Tbone5189 ---.--
44. ---.-- Beorn ---.--
45. ---.-- Andromeda ---.--
46. ---.-- Luke88 ---.--
47. ---.-- GamingCJ ---.--
48. ---.-- skittzo0413 ---.--
49. ---.-- Ariakon44 ---.--
50. ---.-- mjw ---.--Congratulations, Shadow of the Void! :D
OP
OP
#1 Predictor for April:
-----------------------------------------------------
Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)
ResetERA "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - April 2021
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.
1. Shadow of the Void - 0
2. Ariakon44 - 140,000
3. El Manco - 164,000
4. GamingCJ - 165,000
5. KillerMan91 - 185,000
6. Menx64 - 195,000
6. Peek-a-boo! - 195,000
6. RyngΓäó - 195,000
9. Zedark - 205,000
9. esteh - 205,000
11. Astrogamer - 209,000
12. Lelouch0612 - 215,000
13. Xevross - 222,000
14. Limabean01 - 230,000
15. Darth Smurf X - 245,000
16. kowalski - 265,000
17. 404LinkNotFound - 275,000
17. Welfare - 275,000
19. slavesnyder - 280,000
20. Kaveri - 285,000
21. Myriotes - 286,000
22. Worldhopper Hoid - 290,000
23. Fatih656 - 294,000
24. m051293 - 295,000
25. SinCItyAssassin - 305,000
26. IronTed - 307,000
27. DarkDetective - 308,000
28. James - 350,000
29. Corporate Clown - 355,000
30. PachecoMD - 370,000
31. WestEgg - 375,000
32. Beorn - 380,000
33. pitseleh - 390,000
34. Andromeda - 395,000
34. Joxer - 395,000
34. donny2112 - 395,000
37. Jeean - 401,000
38. jroc74 - 425,000
39. Tbone5189 - 427,000
40. Luke88 - 465,000
41. skittzo0413 - 485,000
42. P Diddy - 495,000
43. Colocho - 500,000
44. Quintus - 510,000
45. julian - 525,000
46. Pachter - 595,000
-----------------------------------------------------
Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)
ResetERA "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - April 2021
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.
1. Shadow of the Void - 0
2. Ariakon44 - 140,000
3. El Manco - 164,000
4. GamingCJ - 165,000
5. KillerMan91 - 185,000
6. Menx64 - 195,000
6. Peek-a-boo! - 195,000
6. RyngΓäó - 195,000
9. Zedark - 205,000
9. esteh - 205,000
11. Astrogamer - 209,000
12. Lelouch0612 - 215,000
13. Xevross - 222,000
14. Limabean01 - 230,000
15. Darth Smurf X - 245,000
16. kowalski - 265,000
17. 404LinkNotFound - 275,000
17. Welfare - 275,000
19. slavesnyder - 280,000
20. Kaveri - 285,000
21. Myriotes - 286,000
22. Worldhopper Hoid - 290,000
23. Fatih656 - 294,000
24. m051293 - 295,000
25. SinCItyAssassin - 305,000
26. IronTed - 307,000
27. DarkDetective - 308,000
28. James - 350,000
29. Corporate Clown - 355,000
30. PachecoMD - 370,000
31. WestEgg - 375,000
32. Beorn - 380,000
33. pitseleh - 390,000
34. Andromeda - 395,000
34. Joxer - 395,000
34. donny2112 - 395,000
37. Jeean - 401,000
38. jroc74 - 425,000
39. Tbone5189 - 427,000
40. Luke88 - 465,000
41. skittzo0413 - 485,000
42. P Diddy - 495,000
43. Colocho - 500,000
44. Quintus - 510,000
45. julian - 525,000
46. Pachter - 595,000
Shadow of the Void redeemed!
Sounds like low/mid 500s for NSW, low 200s for PS5 and XBS must have been close to even with the PS5? Xevross should give us a tighter range with all we know.
Sounds like low/mid 500s for NSW, low 200s for PS5 and XBS must have been close to even with the PS5? Xevross should give us a tighter range with all we know.
Looking at Amazon US for April: https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2021-04/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1 and I see the Series S 30 places ahead of the Series X, and I see zero Lite SKUs in the top 100. This is going to be a bit of a weird month for data extrapolation.
m051293 I think around 600k seems more likely, just looking at the top predictors. The mistake most of us made was overpredicting the PS5 and Series systems.
m051293 I think around 600k seems more likely, just looking at the top predictors. The mistake most of us made was overpredicting the PS5 and Series systems.
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I knew it! I was the only one who predicted that combined NSW+PS5+XBS sales would be under 1M, and when the NPD results came in and we saw that sub-$300M hardware gross figure I had a feeling I was right. My reasons might have been flawed, but my intuition about April not being a huge month served me right. It's nice to see my intuition serve me well for a change.
Now let's look at the numbers.
Last year, the total hardware gross was $420M off of 1548k units (the S/P/X % split was 52.2/26.55/21.25), an average gross of $271 per system. With newer, more expensive systems in the market, the amount of money spent per unit had to have grown, meaning that 30% YoY drop in revenues would have to translate to a unit sales drop of greater than 30%, which would put this April at or less than 1M units. And so far this year, the per-system average looks to be a good bit higher than last year.
I know what estimates we have aren't exact, but with the PS5 & Series X on the market it's clear that per-system spending has increased. Assuming the PS4 & XBO are about 5% of the market in terms of units, then based on what estimates I've seen here (at least I think it was here) the per-console average this year has averaged around $350 per system, maybe a bit more. With the total HW gross for April being only $296M, unless the per-system average dropped big time from Q1 to back under $300/unit, there was no way the unit total could exceed 1M. Keeping with that $350/system estimate, we'd be looking at 845k units sold. If it was only $325/unit, then 910k units.
We still don't know the exact platform split, but 60% market share for the Switch (better than its Q1 share, but still likely if April was particularly rough for Sony & MS) would put it at 507-546k, leaving Sony & MS to split the remaining 338-364k. If the Switch's share was closer to 50%, we're looking at around 422-455k for it and for total PS+Xbox sales. That means the PS5 and Series X|S have to be at best around 400k combined, and possibly as low as 300k combined (again assuming the PS4 & XBO are 5% of the market). I think a plausible platform split could look something like this:
Switch: $138.9M (505k units at $275/unit)
PS5+XBS: $146.25M (325k units at $450/unit)
PS4+XBO: $10.5M (35k units at $300/unit)
Total: $295.65M (865k units at ~$342/unit)
Of course, that's assuming my estimates of money spent per console is on the dot. But you can fudge the numbers a bit to get that ~$296M gross with other platform splits and/or slightly different per-console expenditures.
Hopefully we'll get more exact numbers at some point.
Now let's look at the numbers.
Last year, the total hardware gross was $420M off of 1548k units (the S/P/X % split was 52.2/26.55/21.25), an average gross of $271 per system. With newer, more expensive systems in the market, the amount of money spent per unit had to have grown, meaning that 30% YoY drop in revenues would have to translate to a unit sales drop of greater than 30%, which would put this April at or less than 1M units. And so far this year, the per-system average looks to be a good bit higher than last year.
I know what estimates we have aren't exact, but with the PS5 & Series X on the market it's clear that per-system spending has increased. Assuming the PS4 & XBO are about 5% of the market in terms of units, then based on what estimates I've seen here (at least I think it was here) the per-console average this year has averaged around $350 per system, maybe a bit more. With the total HW gross for April being only $296M, unless the per-system average dropped big time from Q1 to back under $300/unit, there was no way the unit total could exceed 1M. Keeping with that $350/system estimate, we'd be looking at 845k units sold. If it was only $325/unit, then 910k units.
We still don't know the exact platform split, but 60% market share for the Switch (better than its Q1 share, but still likely if April was particularly rough for Sony & MS) would put it at 507-546k, leaving Sony & MS to split the remaining 338-364k. If the Switch's share was closer to 50%, we're looking at around 422-455k for it and for total PS+Xbox sales. That means the PS5 and Series X|S have to be at best around 400k combined, and possibly as low as 300k combined (again assuming the PS4 & XBO are 5% of the market). I think a plausible platform split could look something like this:
Switch: $138.9M (505k units at $275/unit)
PS5+XBS: $146.25M (325k units at $450/unit)
PS4+XBO: $10.5M (35k units at $300/unit)
Total: $295.65M (865k units at ~$342/unit)
Of course, that's assuming my estimates of money spent per console is on the dot. But you can fudge the numbers a bit to get that ~$296M gross with other platform splits and/or slightly different per-console expenditures.
Hopefully we'll get more exact numbers at some point.
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So, Limabean being #2 for units but out of the top 3 for points means indeed PS5 > XBS for this month. Using that as the only assumption:
Switch < 543k
164k < PS5 < 204k
163k < XBS < 167k
(PS5 lower range only found from PS5 > XBS, not from unit prediction results)
Switch < 543k
164k < PS5 < 204k
163k < XBS < 167k
(PS5 lower range only found from PS5 > XBS, not from unit prediction results)
wow i did well with units but so far down with points!! idk how the points system works but that's interesting lol
anyways, these numbers are both lower than we hoped but still very very good overall. the industry is in a good place
i decided to go off uk info and project that xbs could take april... could still be close tho!
anyways, these numbers are both lower than we hoped but still very very good overall. the industry is in a good place
OP
OP
Points calculation Points per system is actually 33.3333 currently, for instance, but you can get the gist.
For Top 3/4, that's the top 3 months of the 4 so far this year. Final will be top 10/12 months (second month drops off with September's results). That way you can miss up to two months (or tank two months) and not be completely out of the running for the year. Hopefully that all makes sense now. (^_^)
For Top 3/4, that's the top 3 months of the 4 so far this year. Final will be top 10/12 months (second month drops off with September's results). That way you can miss up to two months (or tank two months) and not be completely out of the running for the year. Hopefully that all makes sense now. (^_^)