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Ars Technica - Years after predicted “death,” game consoles are doing better than ever.
- Thread starter Deleted member 7207
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I certainly didn't expect the PlayStation 4 to do as well as it did. Or Switch, for that matter.
I expected the Switch to do better than the Wii U. But not the amazing Wii-like numbers it is moving toward.
I expected the Switch to do better than the Wii U. But not the amazing Wii-like numbers it is moving toward.
Idk it was a good year for me and gaming and, tbh, a lot of the stuff I liked did quite well for itself too. Even the smaller things.
So...big gaming has mostly left me behind, AAA and mobile both, but there was still a healthy, sustainable place for the gaming I like this year and I'm happy about that.
So...big gaming has mostly left me behind, AAA and mobile both, but there was still a healthy, sustainable place for the gaming I like this year and I'm happy about that.
I still think declaring the Switch a success at this point is premature.
Any console that gets two of the greatest games ever made in a single year + a Mario Kart few people actually played is going to move units.
I wouldn't be surprised if demand for the Switch started to cool soon, and peaked around 20-25M.
Come the fuck on. Dark Souls Remastered is gonna sell Switches, let alone the demand that Labo + Pokemon will bring.
You really expect it to move 10-15 million units over the next 5+ years?
I don't think a 7-year old game that's available on like every platform is going to matter.
Labo definitively could be huge, but I'm skeptical.
Came here to say exactly the same thing.
They are still alive but 'better than ever' is factually false.
I agred with people saying how doomed it was even after the Switch released.
spyro's my favorite "playstation" mascot
if he even is still considered one
I know the Switch has actually sold faster than the Wii, but if you adjust for the relative size of the markets, Wii is still more impressive. It had four great years then fell off a cliff. It was a total fad and had no staying power. The Wii brand is almost toxic at this point.
How long will the Switch momentum last? I don't know. But at this point I think it's premature to just project out its current momentum as sustaining indefinitely. It had the best first year software lineup of any console, ever. Two games that will be on many "best games of all time" lists 10, 15+ years from now. That's insane. It still hasn't gotten any meaningful third party support outside of Doom and last-gen remasters. The core franchises that most console gamers buy consoles for aren't there. And I don't know if they'll ever be there.
Is it likely that the Switch will suddenly collapse? No. I just don't think it's proven yet. Let's see how it handles 2018 without a mainline Mario and Zelda. If it's sitting at 25M, 30M at the end of the year (which I admit is totally possible), I will change my tune.
Like a lot of comments there most votes for gcn was also in a sarcastic way
I think you're looking at this incorrectly, so to go off what Mat from NPD said: you can't just look at certain numbers (in this case, what we consider to be pure gaming units) and use it as a basis of comparison. If we included DS/PSP sales, we have to include not just 3DS and Vita, but also mobile as a whole, especially when games like The Witness, Ace Attorney and Final Fantays are also on phones/tablets. The PS4 will outsell the PS3 easily, we already know that. The Switch's gimmick seems less a novelty like the Wii's motion controls and more something that people can do on-the-go, and since many of us are adults and busy, that's a big deal. The only wild card is the Xbox One since they're being secretive about the numbers.
We also have to take into consideration that many people bought PSPs for homebrewing, not to buy software for it. There are many variables.
But mobile gaming isn't consoles. I've been following that market since it started back when App Store was a cool new hip thing, and the only thing clear about mobile gaming is that it's dominated by very few with huge marketing budgets, discoverability is killing profits for indies, and gameplay never actually delivered good, solid experiences other than lucky ports.
That first sentence. What kind of logic is that?
And the rest of your post is basically this:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Switch has done well so far, it's gaining fast word of mouth and console sales just don't fall off the cliff in their second year.
PSP is such a bullshit inclusion. Let's not pretend those 70 million units were an indication of a healthy installed base on par with PS3/PS4. The only reason PSP moved 70 million units is because it was the easiest system ever to pirate. Actual retail sales of PSP games were a joke.
I thought it would do between Wii U and Gamecube, so I don't know i that counts as predicting a failiure.
The speculation threads were Pinnacle gaf, we'll likely never see nothing like that again, :lol: :lol: :lol:
Oh god I used to dread when the Apple conference came around every year because back then you knew as soon as it was over all of these sites, gaming sites that supposedly cater to enthusiasts, were going to drool over all the ways Apple was in the process of killing consoles. Whatever they announced was god's gift to us all and some racing game or FPS from a 4th rate mobile dev was going to lead the charge in the death of consoles because of how good it looked on a phone (nevermind that it sucked to play).
This nonsense largely stopped after PS4/XB1 came out so I think these writers were just bored with how long last gen lasted.
I seent some investor croricizc Nintendo for not buying ouya, DEAD.
My God, the Business Insider article talking about how the PS4's reveal was, "an anticlimax," as a point toward dying consoles is pretty hysterical to read now, especially when it was the $399 price point which came months later that broke the internet.
I mean, Nintendo is going to increasingly try and get the device into the hands of women and children with things like Labo, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, etc. They've said as much and I think the Labo demonstration means you should probably take them at their word that they are preparing this sort of software. That is, largely, a different momentum from the one the Switch is currently maintaining as a hot device among enthusiasts. So yes, Nintendo is planning to also try and take under the Switch umbrella other audiences--the audiences that made DS and Wii and 3DS successful among a wider crowd of people than are currently dominating Switch sales.
Moreover, I think Switch owners have, so far, demonstrated a hunger for hybrid versions of games (mostly indie) and Nintendo first party games. These are still coming. I don't think that hunger and interest is going to evaporate just because there isn't a BotW or Mario Odyssey around. FE and Metroid are already announced to be coming, for example. So are SMTV, Octopath, and Bayonetta 3. There will be a Smash game. There will be a slew of platformers that appeal across audience lines. There are going to continue to be Switch games for core audiences.
And also...big Nintendo games tend to be evergreen. Mario and Zelda and Kart will keep selling.
Believing that Switch will just fizzle out is believing the worst will happen wrt all of these ventures. I doubt the 'best' will either but...it is an exceedingly pessimistic outlook.
I think the thing will sell better than 3DS, outside of Japan, and approach or go over 20 million in Japan.
Moreover, I think Switch owners have, so far, demonstrated a hunger for hybrid versions of games (mostly indie) and Nintendo first party games. These are still coming. I don't think that hunger and interest is going to evaporate just because there isn't a BotW or Mario Odyssey around. FE and Metroid are already announced to be coming, for example. So are SMTV, Octopath, and Bayonetta 3. There will be a Smash game. There will be a slew of platformers that appeal across audience lines. There are going to continue to be Switch games for core audiences.
And also...big Nintendo games tend to be evergreen. Mario and Zelda and Kart will keep selling.
Believing that Switch will just fizzle out is believing the worst will happen wrt all of these ventures. I doubt the 'best' will either but...it is an exceedingly pessimistic outlook.
I think the thing will sell better than 3DS, outside of Japan, and approach or go over 20 million in Japan.
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I never claimed that it was a better or more varied experience but rather generates higher revenue. Based on NPD numbers consoles this year generated a bit more that $14Billion in revenue. PC and Mobile generated roughly $22Billion.
The Switch is the only possible bright point/wild card I can see for growth on consoles in the future, and even that seems relatively impossible, for Nintendo alone to reach their install base peak the Switch needs to sell ~200 million (Wii+DS minus an estimate of people who had both).
People talking revenue are also being ridiculous or disingenuous unless they adjust for inflation and factor out loot box whales.
And the continued comparisons between PS3/360 and XB/X1 without mentioning the actual completely dominant winner of the first 4-5 years of that generation (not to mention for the first 2-3 years PS2 was the #2 seller in home consoles and both handheld consoles also vastly outsold PS3/360) are also duplicitous.
Growth into new/developing markets is a positive, but it's seemingly just replacing (and nowhere near meeting replenishment levels) existing market (JP/US/EU/AU etc) consumers.
People talking revenue are also being ridiculous or disingenuous unless they adjust for inflation and factor out loot box whales.
And the continued comparisons between PS3/360 and XB/X1 without mentioning the actual completely dominant winner of the first 4-5 years of that generation (not to mention for the first 2-3 years PS2 was the #2 seller in home consoles and both handheld consoles also vastly outsold PS3/360) are also duplicitous.
Growth into new/developing markets is a positive, but it's seemingly just replacing (and nowhere near meeting replenishment levels) existing market (JP/US/EU/AU etc) consumers.
The insanity persists. No console with a start like the Switch, ever, has dropped off like that. You're suggesting a complete break from all history and data.
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I've never died before. Therefore, I must be immortal.
There isn't much history or data to go off of. You're talking like 25 data points over 30 years. That's nothing. And the industry and the very notion of what a console is has shifted massively in that time. The Switch is also a very unique device. There's never been a mainstream "hybrid" console. There's never been another first year of software like that. The game industry remains in a massive flux with emerging technologies and devices (streaming, AR, VR, etc).
The people I know who bought a Switch bought it for Mario and Zelda. It's unclear to me what comes next.
I'm not actually predicting that the Switch will fall off a cliff, only that it could given that its first year software output isn't likely to matched in this year or any year thereafter. A lot of the early criticism of the Switch remains valid (lack of online play, lack of third party support, etc).
The thing no one noticed (but we were actually talking about this even back in 2014) is that mobile games aren't competitors to consoles, like at all. Mobile gamers aren't interested in AAA gaming. They might like shiny graphics but they don't want to pay more than 20 bucks at best for it, and often prefer not to pay at all. Experiences coming out on mobile aren't moving gamers away from consoles. It just killed the shovelware market of Nintendo portables for now.
I do not see this changing, unless massive changes happen to the App Store model, where the app gold rush just killed any chance for newcomers to grow organically. Nintendo isn't bringing their core experiences to mobile, and all the other big houses aren't either. They see it as the sequel to those shit ports to DS.
My generation was just as much or even less interested in consoles than the current teenagers' generation. Many discussions aren't much different than forums back in 2007, when I started discussing online.
Why post this? It's infuriating and stupid.
They already bought it.
The next group of people who buy it in the near future will buy it for... Mario and Zelda.
You've literally already predicted a possibility of it topping out as low 20 million, which it may reach in just a couple of months, that's one of the least likely things possible.
Isn't it possible that most people that are going to buy a pokemon switch game already own a switch ? sun and moon sold 16 million on a install base way higher than the switch's so realistically how well will it sell ?
It actually skews more towards PC and mobile than just looking at those figures suggest, as AFAIK console hardware is included in those revenue figures, whereas PC and mobile hardware is not - that is purely software revenue.
The whole narrative was BS from the beginning because it wasn't based on anything other than an observation that mobile devices and phones were selling hardware in the 100s of millions and games were a huge revenue spinner on the app store, "so naturally this meant that consoles and the traditional gaming model was dead."
It was an illogical fallacy, parading as industry insight. Apple fanboy gaming journalists really were the worst.
It was an illogical fallacy, parading as industry insight. Apple fanboy gaming journalists really were the worst.
Basically Sampson's argument is "Nintendo can never appeal to the core so well again after this year," which, well, is pretty strange in and of itself, but it also completely ignores other audiences that Nintendo has a history with and has said they are going to try and bring in this year. Moreover, to do right after the Labo presentation is incredibly strange.
Kids play on iPads these days.
I think the idea of Labo is pretty great -- here's something awesome your iPad can't do! I actually think it could be huge.
But it's a completely new, totally unproven concept. It could be another Wii Music.
Also, I didn't actually predict that the Switch would stall at 20M units. Only that it could. I'm simply saying it's too early to declare victory given the numerous issues the Switch still has a platform.
But nuanced concepts like that are probably too much for you.
So much this and Crash.
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Look at every other Nintendo handheld's sales around a Pokemon game release and you'll see the spikes. The most relative comparison would be X & Y.
http://gamingtrend.com/news/1-5-people-purchased-pokemon-x-y-fastest-3ds-title-hit-1m-sales/
Sales for the 3DS family of hardware shot up 135% after Pokemon X&Y released.
Neither a new Mario Kart nor a new 3D Mario game had anywhere near the impact & success of Pokemon. Expect a similar outcome with Switch.
Here's Nintendolife on Pokemon Sun & Moon DRIVING UP 3DS hardware sales - and it's the 3rd Pokemon game on 3DS.
The 3DS isn't finished yet, based upon its recent performance and Nintendo's estimates for the current financial year. The system may be slowly winding down, but the extraordinary sales of Pokémon Sun and Moon, in particular, helped drive the portable's sales trends upwards and evidently gave Nintendo confidence for the coming year - its lifetime sales have now passed 66 million in total.
In the last financial year - up to 31st March - there were 7.27 million 3DS systems shipped, nearly half a million units higher than the year before. In total seven games sold over one million copies but the key performers were Sun and Moon, which between them shipped 15.44 million copies up to the end of March.
You forget, too, that new groups of kids are going to be aging into the Switch and Pokemon every year.
Furthermore, lots of folks don't feel like they need to buy a game system the year it comes out. The majority of future Switch owners have not bought the system yet.
And we still have Animal Crossing & Smash Bros. in addition to the smaller franchises with dedicated followings. The Switch will have legs.
An uncomprised, portable port of the best Souls game on a modern handheld? I think that's pretty appealing to a large group of people.
People bought a Switch for portable Skyrim.
Comparing Labo to Wii Music is laughable. We honestly don't have anything to compare Labo to. Even Toys-To-Life games lack the edutainment/creativity aspect that really puts Labo in another ballpark.
Also, while kids do largely play on mobile devices I've seen tons of kids with 3DS's in the wild. Anecdotally, my friend has a bunch of nieces and nephews and the Switch was a hot item this last Christmas.
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And still no Pokemon or Animal Crossing or 2D Mario or Kirby or Yoshi or Mario Maker enters your calculus...yes, Labo could flop. Nintendo has plenty of other things to appeal to a wider audience with. And they have, even on 3DS, which also coexisted with mobile.
The thing will definitely clear 20 million worldwide.
...
And yes, Nintendo can still appeal to the core: 2D Mario will. Smash Brothers will. Fire Emblem will. Metroid Prime 4 will. Octopath will. SMTV will. These are just announced games. Sure it is unlikely they repeat this year's critical success and are as much the zeitgeist again but that doesn't mean anything wrt this conversation.
...
Lastly, those games are not done selling......
Anyone who thought Apple was going to kill the other console makers must have been smoking something. Apple has had the potential, they just don't actually have anyone over there who cares about games, at all. The Apple TV was the perfect option were they interested, but they've been content to let iOS games do their own thing for the most part and just take the 30% cut rather than being proactive. It's a shame, because a world where the traditional console makers had to contend with Apple might have been beneficial (because Apple really does just care about hardware money rather than all that continuing revenue carrots the industry writ large chases) but it's not happening without a lot of new blood.