1. donny2112

    donny2112
    Member OP

    ITT, predict for the NPD August 2018 retail period (August 5-September 1, 2018) for U.S. hardware sales.

    What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
    What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
    Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
    Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, September 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

    NPD Coverage: August 5-September 1, 2018 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
    NPD Physical Results Release: Thursday, September 13th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 5 days later on September 18th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

    Format:

    [NSW]
    [PS4]
    [XB1]

    Good/Bad Formatting
    Code:
    Good              Bad
    [XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
    [XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
    [XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000

    Potential hardware impacting events in August:
    XB1X trade-in deal at Gamestop ($200-$300 off XB1X, Aug. 8-28) - 21 days
    PS4 Pro 2TB "500m Sony consoles" commemorative edition $500 (Aug. 24, 50K consoles worldwide) - 1 day

    Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

    [NSW]
    [PS4]
    [XB1]

    July's Resuts
    July 2017 NPD thread
    August 2017 NPD thread

    NPD Prediction Thread Archive
     
  2. LordOcidax

    LordOcidax
    Member

    [NSW] 250k
    [PS4] 220k
    [XB1] 175k
     
  3. Sheepshakey

    Sheepshakey
    Member

    [NSW] 380k
    [PS4] 160k
    [XB1] 150k
     
  4. Phantom Thief

    Phantom Thief
    Member

    [NSW] 220K
    [PS4] 180K
    [XB1] 160K
     
  5. Nemesis162

    Nemesis162
    Member

    Switch is probably picking the first place on August as well so..

    [NSW] 325k
    [PS4] 250k
    [XB1] 190k
     
  6. Gryflet

    Gryflet
    Member

    [NSW] 220k
    [PS4] 210k
    [XB1] 165k
     
  7. Thinking the switch will pip first place again before the PS4 surges in September.
     
  8. donny2112

    donny2112
    Member OP

    Guys. Format. o.O
     
  9. Heartskips

    Heartskips
    Member

    [NSW] 260k
    [PS4] 240k
    [XB1] 180k
     
  10. Phantom Thief

    Phantom Thief
    Member

    Sorry! Fixed
     
  11. Stryda

    Stryda
    Member

    [NSW]: 250K
    [PS4]: 210K
    [XB1]: 180K
     
  12. skittzo0413

    skittzo0413
    Member

    I'm not much for predicting but just as a reminder I'm pretty sure PS4 Pro shortages have still been prevalent in August.
     
  13. Sebastopa

    Sebastopa
    Member

    [NSW]: 270K
    [PS4]: 230K
    [XB1]: 180K
     
  14. HighJump

    HighJump
    Member

    [NSW] 290K
    [PS4] 205K
    [XB1] 180K
     
  15. donny2112

    donny2112
    Member OP

    No colons in the system format, please. Quote the OP and remove everything but the system formats, if that helps. :)
     
  16. Welfare

    Welfare
    Member

    [NSW] 212K
    [PS4] 187K
    [XB1] 163K
     
  17. Benji

    Benji
    US Sales Insider Member

    Yes. In fact worse than they've been all year.

    Also I'll put this in a spoiler for those that dont want to know

    Edit - nvm
     
  18. jayu26

    jayu26
    Member

    [NSW] 219K
    [PS4] 193K
    [XB1] 165K
     
  19. Saint-14

    Saint-14
    Member

    Someone was able to read what the spoiler was?
     
  20. brykuhn91

    brykuhn91
    Member

    [NSW] 260K
    [PS4] 180K
    [XB1] 152K
     
  21. score01

    score01
    Member

    [NSW] 220K
    [PS4] 200K
    [XB1] 160K
     
  22. Martl

    Martl
    Member

    [NSW] 230k
    [PS4] 200k
    [XB1] 170k
     
  23. Kyser73

    Kyser73
    Member

    [NSW] 230K
    [PS4] 180K
    [XB1] 150K
     
  24. Numberfox

    Numberfox
    Member

    [NSW] 230K
    [PS4] 200K
    [XB1] 180K
     
  25. useyourloaf

    useyourloaf
    Member

    [NSW] 220K
    [PS4] 200K
    [XB1] 155K
     
  26. Rouk'

    Rouk'
    Member

    [NSW] 230K
    [PS4] 190K
    [XB1] 150K
     
  27. Simba1

    Simba1
    Member

    What were last years August sales numbers?
     
  28. slavesnyder

    slavesnyder
    Member

    NSW] 233K
    [PS4] 193K
    [XB1] 143K
     
  29. Saint-14

    Saint-14
    Member

    How many of those special Pro edition were even given to the US?
     
  30. Kill3r7

    Kill3r7
    Member

    [NSW] 210K
    [PS4] 185K
    [XB1] 165K
     
  31. Welfare

    Welfare
    Member

    Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of July and August. Both of these months have 4 weeks. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for August to help show how August might be impacted by certain software. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

    Code:
    2012
    
    Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750
    Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250
    
    Weekly average down 5%
    
    PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750
    PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750
    
    Weekly average up 3%
    
    3DS July: 129K / 4 = 32,250
    3DS August: 179K / 4 = 44,750
    
    Weekly average up 39%
    
    Notable Releases in August
    
    3DS
    Red + Black 3DS XL $199 [1 week]
    Blue + Black 3DS XL $199 [1 week]
    
    New Super Mario Bros. 2 [1 week] [240K]
    Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance [4 weeks] [>200K]
    Code:
    2013
    
    Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750
    Xbox 360 August: 96K / 4 = 24,000
    
    Weekly average down 10%
    
    PS3 July: 79K / 4 = 19,750
    PS3 August: 71K / 4 = 17,750
    
    Weekly average down 10%
    
    3DS July: 150K / 4 = 37,500
    3DS August: 130K / 4 = 32,500
    
    Weekly average down 13%
    
    Notable Releases in August
    
    Xbox 360
    Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
    Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
    Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]
    Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
    
    PS3
    PS3 Super Slim 12GB  $199 [3 weeks]
    
    Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
    Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
    Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]
    Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
    Tales of Xillia [4 weeks]
    
    3DS
    Black XL $199 [3 weeks]
    
    Mario & Luigi: Dream Team [3 weeks] [190K]
    Code:
    2014
    
    Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750
    Xbox One August: 159K / 4 = 39,750
    
    Weekly average up 21%
    
    PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750
    PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
    
    Weekly average up 2%
    
    3DS July: 108K / 4 = 27,000
    3DS August: 91K / 4 = 22,750
    
    Weekly average down 16%
    
    Xbox 360 July: 54K / 4 = 13,500
    Xbox 360 August: 50K / 4 = 12,500
    
    Weekly average down 7%
    
    PS3 July: 32K / 4 = 8,000
    PS3 August: 27K / 4 = 6,750
    
    Weekly average down 16%
    
    Notable Releases in August
    
    Xbox One
    Madden 15 bundle $399 [1 week] [41K]
    
    Madden 15 [1 week] [>297K]
    Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<112K]
    
    PS4
    Madden 15 [1 week] [>385K]
    Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<156K]
    
    Xbox 360
    Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>242K]
    
    PS3
    Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>176K]
    Code:
    2015
    
    Xbox One July: 188K / 4 = 47,000
    Xbox One August: 200K / 4 = 50,000
    
    Weekly average up 6%
    
    PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250
    PS4 August: 208K / 4 = 52,000
    
    Weekly average down 4%
    
    3DS July: 110K / 4 = 27,500
    3DS August: 77K / 4 = 19,250
    
    Weekly average down 30%
    
    Notable Releases in August
    
    Xbox One
    40-Inch 1080p TV Bundle $499 at Best Buy [1 week]
    
    Madden 16 1TB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]
    Gears of War Ultimate Edition 500GB Bundle $349 [1 week]
    
    Madden 16 [1 week]
    Gears of War Ultimate Edition [1 week]
    Rare Replay [4 weeks] [<109k]
    
    PS4
    Madden 16 with every PS4 for free at Gamestop and Amazon [1 week]
    Madden 16 [1 week]
    
    3DS
    2DS price drop to $99 announced on August 20th for August 30th [10 days]
    Code:
    2016
    
    Xbox One July: 171K / 4 = 42,750
    Xbox One August: 275K / 4 = 68,750
    
    Weekly average up 61%
    
    PS4 July: 161K / 4 = 40,250
    PS4 August: 160K  / 4 = 40,000
    
    Weekly average down 1%
    
    3DS July: 189K / 4 = 47,250
    3DS August: 142K / 4 = 35,500
    
    Weekly average down 25%
    
    Notable Releases in August
    
    Xbox One
    Xbox One S 2TB $399 [4 weeks]
    Xbox One S Halo 5 + Halo MCC 500GB bundle $299 [1 week]
    Xbox One S Madden 17 + 1 month EA Access 1TB bundle $349 [1 week] [16K]
    Total [<160K]
    
    Madden 17 [1 week]
    
    PS4
    Madden 17 [1 week]
    No Man's Sky [3 weeks] [508K]
    
    3DS
    New 3DS $149 [3 weeks]
    Super Mario 3D Land Special Themed New 3DS Bundle $149 [1 week]
    Code:
    2017
    
    Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750
    Xbox One August: 116K / 4 = 29,000
    
    Weekly average down 11%
    
    PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250
    PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
    
    Weekly average down 12%
    
    Notable Releases in August
    
    Xbox One
    Madden 18 500GB Bundle $279 [1 week]
    
    Madden 18 [1 week]
    
    PS4
    Target only 500GB Bundle $269 [2 weeks]
    
    Madden 18 [1 week]
    Uncharted: Lost Legacy [1 week]
    Code:
    2018 July Weekly Averages
    
    Switch: 262K / 4 weeks = 65,500
    PS4: 187K / 4 weeks = 46,750
    Xbox One: 152K / 4 weeks = 38,000
    
    Notable Releases in August
    
    Switch
    Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate [1 week]
    
    Xbox One
    Gamestop Deal - Trade in XB1, Switch, or PS4 and get up to $300 towards Xbox One X Offer valid 8/8 - 8/28
    Gamestop Deal - Free game deal Aug 10-18
    
    Madden 19 [4 weeks]
    
    PS4
    PS4 Pro 500 Million Limited Edition 2TB $499 [August 24th]
    
    Madden 19 [4 weeks]
    Notes:
    Welcome to Madden Month. Usually the only noteworthy release, sometimes it can lift Xbox and PS over July but this game only counters the downward trend in sales continuing from July.

    When looking back to the whole of 7th gen (360/PS3) August went up thanks to hardware related events like price cuts and new revision releases.

    2007: Xbox 360 went up thanks to price drops on all three SKUs
    2009: Xbox 360 went up thanks to price drops on the Pro and Elite SKUs, PS3 dropped to $299 and the Slim saw early sales at the tail end of August.
    2010: PS3 went up thanks to the release of the $299 160GB SKU
    2011: Xbox 360 went up for some reason. This year’s Madden was an early September release. PS3 went up thanks to a $50 price cut to the Slim down to $249.
    2012: PS3 went up for some reason as well. This year’s Madden was also an early September release so maybe it has something to with that but the 360 went down in the same period.

    Xbox 360 saw three instances of higher weekly average in August from July. 2007, 2009, and 2011. ‘07 and ’09 were thanks to price drops, ‘11 is ???.

    3 / 8 times August saw a weekly average rise which averaged +27%. When looking at the years it dropped, that averages -8%.

    PS3 saw four instances of higher weekly average in August from July. 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. ‘09, ‘10, and ‘11 were all thanks to price drops and new model launches. ‘12 is ???

    4 / 7 times August saw a weekly average rise which averaged +33%. When looking at the years it dropped, that averages -15%.

    Xbox
    So while Xbox One doesn’t have the best drops going from June to July thanks to June deals, August usually improves over July thanks to bundles. 2014 had a large jump thanks to it having the first Madden bundle of the gen, 2015 had a good Best Buy TV deal in the middle of the month and the release of both the Madden 15 and Gears UE bundles. 2016 had the release of the Xbox One S, so obviously that performance is something that won’t be replicated again. 2017 actually saw a drop thanks to a (relatively) impressive July rise over June thanks to Amazon Prime Day.

    2018 is the first time this gen where Madden is not bundled, with Xbox opting to bench it for NBA in September. Despite that, there was a pretty good up to $300 trade in deal for the Xbox One X at GameStop that lasted all month, in addition to a free game deal.

    The weekly average rise is +19% with the only drop being -11% (2017) and the largest rise being +61% (2016). Without 2016, the average is +5%.

    PlayStation
    PS4 is pretty straight forward. Had a +2% increase in 2014 thanks to the first new Madden release after launch, -4% in 2015 from a good July thanks to GameStop and Amazon giving Madden 16 for free with every new PS4 purchase, and -1% in 2016 thanks to Madden 17 and No Man’s Sky which sold 508K that month. 2017 saw the biggest drop yet thanks to a standard month following a good July that saw it going for $229 during Prime Day.

    2018 is a bit strange as there are apparently PS4 Pro shortages and there was the extremely limited 500 Million PS4 Pro release for one day. 50,000 were sold worldwide so at best, ~15K would have gone to the US.

    The weekly average drop is -4% with the only rise being +2% (2014) and the biggest drop being -12% (2017).

    Nintendo
    The 3DS averages a drop of -9% with the only rise being +39% (2012) and the biggest drop being -30% (2015).

    Switch really doesn’t have much this August and it’s following a really good July/Prime Day. Shouldn’t crash but it won’t have a small drop either.

    Recap
    August is on average a slower month than July, even with Madden. Something like a new model launch will increase the month over July (but what month wouldn’t see that). Also last year I wondered how long Xbox would continue to bundle Madden. Looks like not long!

    The biggest August ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 453K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 404K back in 2007.

    The biggest August ever recorded during the 8th gen was the Xbox One with 275K in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 with 208K back in 2015
     
  32. Bitch Pudding

    Bitch Pudding
    Member

    [NSW] 250K
    [PS4] 210K
    [XB1] 159K
     
  33. [NSW] 216K
    [PS4] 194K
    [XB1] 161K
     
  34. WillySJ3

    WillySJ3
    Member

    Wake me up when september ends.
     
  35. Slarvax

    Slarvax
    Member

    [NSW] 215k
    [PS4] 205k
    [XB1] 150k
     
  36. KillerMan91

    KillerMan91
    Member

    [NSW] 210K
    [PS4] 195K
    [XB1] 160K
     
  37. El Manco

    El Manco
    Member

    [NSW] 240K
    [PS4] 180K
    [XB1] 140K
     
  38. [NSW] 220k
    [PS4] 190k
    [XB1] 165k
     
  39. chroeser

    chroeser
    Member

    [NSW] 213k
    [PS4] 178k
    [XB1] 156k
     
  40. Wandu

    Wandu
    Member

    [NSW] 220K
    [PS4] 192K
    [XB1] 146K
     
  41. Myriotes

    Myriotes
    Member

    [NSW] 209K
    [PS4] 186K
    [XB1] 161K
     
  42. Simba1

    Simba1
    Member

    [NSW] 230K
    [PS4] 210K
    [XB1] 165K
     
  43. Sangetsu-II

    Sangetsu-II
    Member

    [NSW] 250K
    [PS4] 220K
    [XB1] 175K
     
  44. jroc74

    jroc74
    Member

    [NSW] 225K
    [PS4] 190K
    [XB1] 160K
     
  45. Hammer24

    Hammer24
    Member

    [NSW] 237K
    [PS4] 197K
    [XB1] 157K
     
  46. Kaveri

    Kaveri
    Member

    [NSW] 232k
    [PS4] 193k
    [XB1] 167k
     
  47. Nocturnal

    Nocturnal
    Member

    [NSW] 222K
    [PS4] 175K
    [XB1] 155K
     
  48. donny2112

    donny2112
    Member OP

    Thanks for updating your formatting, guys! People tend to copy the last person's post seen and modify, so it's easy for the number of incorrectly formatted entries to grow quickly. Since the incorrectly formatted ones tend to get skipped when collecting the predictions, it's good to have the entries be correctly formatted for other's to copy, so everyone's entry gets picked up. (^_^)
     
  49. Peek-a-boo!

    Peek-a-boo!
    Member

    [NSW] 210K
    [PS4] 190K
    [XB1] 160K

    It’s the calm before the (Spider-Man) storm...
     
  50. CosmicBolt

    CosmicBolt
    Member

    [NSW] 210K
    [PS4] 195K
    [XB1] 155K