Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of July and August. Both of these months have 4 weeks. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for August to help show how August might be impacted by certain software. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750
Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250
Weekly average -5%
PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750
PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750
Weekly average +3%
3DS July: 129K / 4 = 32,250
3DS August: 179K / 4 = 44,750
Weekly average +39%
Notable Releases in August
3DS
Red + Black 3DS XL $199 [1 week]
Blue + Black 3DS XL $199 [1 week]
New Super Mario Bros. 2 [1 week] [240K]
Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance [4 weeks] [>200K]
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Xbox 360 August: 96K / 4 = 24,000
Weekly average -10%
PS3 July: 79K / 4 = 19,750
PS3 August: 71K / 4 = 17,750
Weekly average -10%
3DS July: 150K / 4 = 37,500
3DS August: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Weekly average -13%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox 360
Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]
Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
PS3
PS3 Super Slim 12GB $199 [3 weeks]
Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]
Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
Tales of Xillia [4 weeks]
3DS
Black XL $199 [3 weeks]
Mario & Luigi: Dream Team [3 weeks] [190K]
Code:
2014
Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One August: 159K / 4 = 39,750
Weekly average +21%
PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750
PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
Weekly average +2%
3DS July: 108K / 4 = 27,000
3DS August: 91K / 4 = 22,750
Weekly average -16%
Xbox 360 July: 54K / 4 = 13,500
Xbox 360 August: 50K / 4 = 12,500
Weekly average -7%
PS3 July: 32K / 4 = 8,000
PS3 August: 27K / 4 = 6,750
Weekly average -16%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox One
Madden 15 bundle $399 [1 week] [41K]
Madden 15 [1 week] [>297K]
Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<112K]
PS4
Madden 15 [1 week] [>385K]
Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<156K]
Xbox 360
Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>242K]
PS3
Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>176K]
Code:
2015
Xbox One July: 188K / 4 = 47,000
Xbox One August: 200K / 4 = 50,000
Weekly average +6%
PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250
PS4 August: 208K / 4 = 52,000
Weekly average -4%
3DS July: 110K / 4 = 27,500
3DS August: 77K / 4 = 19,250
Weekly average -30%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox One
40-Inch 1080p TV Bundle $499 at Best Buy [1 week]
Madden 16 1TB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]
Gears of War Ultimate Edition 500GB Bundle $349 [1 week]
Madden 16 [1 week]
Gears of War Ultimate Edition [1 week]
Rare Replay [4 weeks] [<109k]
PS4
Madden 16 with every PS4 for free at Gamestop and Amazon [1 week]
Madden 16 [1 week]
3DS
2DS price drop to $99 announced on August 20th for August 30th [10 days]
Code:
2016
Xbox One July: 171K / 4 = 42,750
Xbox One August: 275K / 4 = 68,750
Weekly average +61%
PS4 July: 161K / 4 = 40,250
PS4 August: 160K / 4 = 40,000
Weekly average -1%
3DS July: 189K / 4 = 47,250
3DS August: 142K / 4 = 35,500
Weekly average -25%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox One
Xbox One S 2TB $399 [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Halo 5 + Halo MCC 500GB bundle $299 [1 week]
Xbox One S Madden 17 + 1 month EA Access 1TB bundle $349 [1 week] [16K]
Total [<160K]
Madden 17 [1 week]
PS4
Madden 17 [1 week]
No Man's Sky [3 weeks] [508K]
3DS
New 3DS $149 [3 weeks]
Super Mario 3D Land Special Themed New 3DS Bundle $149 [1 week]
Code:
2017
Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One August: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Weekly average -13%
PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250
PS4 August: 181K / 4 = 45,250
Weekly average -17%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox One
Madden 18 500GB Bundle $279 [1 week]
Madden 18 [1 week]
PS4
Target only 500GB Bundle $269 [2 weeks]
Madden 18 [1 week]
Uncharted: Lost Legacy [1 week]
Code:
2018
Switch July: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Switch August: 206K / 4 = 51,500
Weekly average -21%
Xbox One July: 152K / 4 = 38,000
Xbox One August: 165K / 4 = 41,250
Weekly average +9%
PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750
PS4 August: 197K / 4 = 49,250
Weekly average +5%
Notable Releases in August
Switch
Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate [1 week]
Xbox One
Gamestop Deal - Trade in XB1, Switch, or PS4 and get up to $300 towards Xbox One X Offer valid 8/8 - 8/28
Gamestop Deal - Free game deal Aug 10-18
Madden 19 [4 weeks]
PS4
PS4 Pro 500 Million Limited Edition 2TB $499 [August 24th]
Madden 19 [4 weeks]
Code:
2019 July Weekly Averages *Using #1 Predictor
Switch: ~250K / 4 weeks = ~62,500
PS4: ~179K / 4 weeks = ~44,750
Xbox One: ~107K / 4 weeks = ~26,750
Notable Releases in August
Switch
Switch with upgraded battery $299 [All month]
PS4
PS4 Slim $249 [July 28 - August 10] (1 week in August NPD)
PS4 Fortnite Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Notes
Welcome to
Madden Month Oh. It launched in July this year.
Well what's the point of August then?
Besides Madden, August rarely has anything of note, and towards the end of a generation even Madden can't stop sales from falling from July.
Xbox
So while Xbox One doesn't have the best drops going from June to July thanks to June deals, August usually improves over July thanks to bundles. 2014 was the first Madden bundle of the gen, 2015 had a good Best Buy TV deal in the middle of the month and the release of both the Madden 15 and Gears UE bundles. 2016 had the release of the Xbox One S, so obviously that performance is something that won't be replicated again. 2017 actually saw a drop thanks to a (relatively) impressive July rise over June thanks to Amazon Prime Day. 2018 had a great up to $300 trade in deal for the Xbox One X at GameStop that lasted all month, in addition to a free game deal.
2019 August has literally nothing and it follows a July boosted by Amazon Prime Day. It's also right before a rush of new games at the beginning of September and half a dozen bundles for NBA and Gears 5. This will be an incredibly slow month for Xbox.
Removing the outlier of the Xbox One S launch, the weekly average rise is +6% with the only drop being -13% (2017) and the largest rise being +21% (2014).
PlayStation
PS4 is pretty straight forward. Had a +2% increase in 2014 thanks to the first new Madden release after launch, -4% in 2015 from a good July thanks to GameStop and Amazon giving Madden 16 for free with every new PS4 purchase, and -1% in 2016 thanks to Madden 17 and No Man's Sky which sold 508K that month. 2017 saw the biggest drop yet thanks to a standard month following a good July that saw it going for $229 during amazon Prime Day. 2018 had an extremely limited 500 Million PS4 Pro release that was enough to boost sales over July.
2019 has a week of the PS4 selling at $249, and then the week after a Fortnite bundle was released. Not sure what impact a Fortnite bundle has anymore in late 2019, so expectations should be in check.
The weekly average drop is -3% with the largest rise being +5% (2018) and the biggest drop being -17% (2017).
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a drop of -9% with the only rise being +39% (2012) and the biggest drop being -30% (2015).
Switch has the launch of the brand new model with improved battery life at no extra charge at $299. This model was announced back in the middle of July and has a full month to impact sales. How it affects sales right before the Switch Lite will be interesting to see.
Recap
August is on average a slower month than July, even with Madden. Something like a new model launch will increase the month over July (but what month wouldn't see that).
The biggest August ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 453K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 404K back in 2007.
The biggest August ever recorded during the 8th gen was the Xbox One with 275K in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 with 208K back in 2015.
