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Damn. I'm late.
Well, even if it isn't counted, I still want to put down my predictions:
[NSW] 300k
[PS4] 130k
[XB1] 50k
Wasn't sure what to choose for the XBO, considering the absolute lack of stock in July. I just chose somewhere in between last month and what a more "normal" YoY drop would be in a console's replacement year (~40%).
Well, even if it isn't counted, I still want to put down my predictions:
[NSW] 300k
[PS4] 130k
[XB1] 50k
Wasn't sure what to choose for the XBO, considering the absolute lack of stock in July. I just chose somewhere in between last month and what a more "normal" YoY drop would be in a console's replacement year (~40%).
OP
OP
The monthly payoff plan? Pretty sure that'll count as a full price sale in the first month for NPD. Would imagine the customer's monthly payment would not be counted monthly. NPD tracks point-of-sale data, and that wouldn't be POS. My thoughts on it, anyways.
I look forward to over-analyzing their statements though lol.
Yeah that's what I am wondering. NPD's goal is to track the revenue that the retailer records - in this case, how much does the retailer record if they're selling a payment plan? Wouldn't that affect the HW rankings that are revenue/spend driven?
Wii 2008 was 453,000 @ $249.99
NSW 2019 was 237,500 @ $299.99
So NSW 2020 is > 475,000 since Mat says "more than doubled".
Monster month, looks like stock is making its way back after tapering off in Jun/Jul. That's a weekly average of >118,750. Bodes well for a near-record September (Wii 08 at 687K is the highest).
Yeah it means we have a good lower bound for switch sales since he actually specified unit sales this time.
I'm not sure it does really, stock situation for Switch is fluctuating a lot, for all we know September could drop from this.
Switch is unstoppable and has yet to encounter its first holiday season in post-Animal Crossing world.
I think they'll have a large shipment for both end of Quarter and Mario 3D All Stars.
MRio 3D collection. I bet they will have a lot of stock in the next 2 weeks
Yeah its gonna be interesting to see if Switch can continue to sell everything it ships all the way through the holiday period. If so we're gonna see some really nuts sales figures. Switch is already at 4.2 million for the year in the US.
Well really we just need someone who's got all the historical figures.
Sweet, that's a pretty good range to work with. Incredible figures for August.
What kind of unit sales could ACNH be doing right now? Last month I think I estimated 200-300K which translated to 500-750K total (est digital at 60%), which if true validated the NSW HW shortage (that's a much higher attach ratio than Japan...in month 5). Seems like the August result may be similar.
Nice bounce back for XB1 and a surprisingly good month for PS4.
PS4 and Xbox One both sold slightly below 2 million units in Nov+Dec 2013. That's what I expect for the PS5 and Xbox Series as well this coming holiday season. If stock is there, Xbox could even be a bit higher thanks to the Series S imo.
I think Xbox should have more units ready in the US as it is a more important market for them. Sony's shipments will be more spreadout.
Lol that would be quite the strategy. In reality though we might get some PR before we have to predict which makes this a lot easier.
I'm expecting both platforms to report at least 1M in first 24 hours for the US. PS4 almost did that but it was 1M in NA.
What I'm wondering though is how Xbox is going about Series X and S. Will both ship 1M each for day 1 to make sure as many people as possible get in on both, and then shipments become 70:30 S:X?
Yeah its a real weird one, I guess MS have ways of judging the relative demand of each but its up to them how much to ship day one. Perhaps they prioritise whichever one will be more profitable for them, as people preordering will just be desperate for an xbox console day one.
Depends if Nintendo hold back stock for December. I think we'll see about 5m (maybe 6m if that increased production hits) for the rest of the year but who knows how it'll be spread out.
Almost every online poll (era, twitter) I've seen over 80% are choosing the Series X, not S between the two.
Sure you can say that's the core, but I'd argue Xbox/Ps literally is the core, Switch more to the casual.
OP
OP
ResetERA Aggregate Predictions - Aug-2020
1. NSW - 354K (stddev: 32K)
2. PS4 - 126K (stddev: 21K)
3. XB1 - 23K (stddev: 10K)
-----
Thanks, Dolorean and Welfare! Going with nearest 5K for prediction results per usual ...
NPD Prediction Results - August 2020
Units
1. Welfare - 154,000
2. Limabean01 - 164,000
3. Andromeda - 185,000
4. Lelouch0612 - 188,000
5. Kaveri - 191,000
6. P Diddy - 195,000
7. Hammer24 - 204,000
7. Jeean - 204,000
9. jroc74 - 205,000
10. Zedark - 221,000
11. TurnoftheCentury - 240,000
12. RyngΓäó - 245,000
13. Sangetsu-II - 246,000
14. Sterok - 253,000
14. donny2112 - 253,000
16. pitseleh - 254,000
17. Myriotes - 256,000
17. Xevross - 256,000
17. brykuhn91 - 256,000
20. Darth Smurf X - 259,000
21. NPTinker - 265,000
22. Peek-a-boo! - 266,000
23. Corporate Clown - 270,000
24. GamingCJ - 275,000
25. slavesnyder - 283,000
26. esteh - 284,000
27. julian - 285,000
28. El Manco - 288,000
29. Pachter - 300,000
30. Tbone5189 - 372,000
Points
Congratulations, Welfare! :D
1. NSW - 354K (stddev: 32K)
2. PS4 - 126K (stddev: 21K)
3. XB1 - 23K (stddev: 10K)
-----
Thanks, Dolorean and Welfare! Going with nearest 5K for prediction results per usual ...
NPD Prediction Results - August 2020
Units
1. Welfare - 154,000
2. Limabean01 - 164,000
3. Andromeda - 185,000
4. Lelouch0612 - 188,000
5. Kaveri - 191,000
6. P Diddy - 195,000
7. Hammer24 - 204,000
7. Jeean - 204,000
9. jroc74 - 205,000
10. Zedark - 221,000
11. TurnoftheCentury - 240,000
12. RyngΓäó - 245,000
13. Sangetsu-II - 246,000
14. Sterok - 253,000
14. donny2112 - 253,000
16. pitseleh - 254,000
17. Myriotes - 256,000
17. Xevross - 256,000
17. brykuhn91 - 256,000
20. Darth Smurf X - 259,000
21. NPTinker - 265,000
22. Peek-a-boo! - 266,000
23. Corporate Clown - 270,000
24. GamingCJ - 275,000
25. slavesnyder - 283,000
26. esteh - 284,000
27. julian - 285,000
28. El Manco - 288,000
29. Pachter - 300,000
30. Tbone5189 - 372,000
Points
Code:
August 2020 Overall 2020 Top (7/8)
01. Welfare 103.96 Welfare 635.77
02. Limabean01 102.09 Hammer24 623.48
03. Kaveri 98.83 slavesnyder 618.97
04. Lelouch0612 94.37 Lelouch0612 607.18
05. Andromeda 91.40 Jeean 605.99
06. Jeean 91.12 RyngΓäó 604.26
07. Hammer24 81.25 Sterok 602.65
08. TurnoftheCentury 78.49 julian 596.56
09. Xevross 77.45 Kaveri 588.29
10. Zedark 76.85 Myriotes 580.93
11. Sangetsu-II 74.35 Zedark 573.67
12. jroc74 73.73 jroc74 570.93
13. P Diddy 73.49 donny2112 566.10
14. RyngΓäó 72.99 Peek-a-boo! 565.37
15. NPTinker 72.42 Corporate Clown 561.35
16. donny2112 71.92 Darth Smurf X 554.38
17. pitseleh 71.79 Xevross 553.22
18. Myriotes 69.35 El Manco 549.75
19. brykuhn91 67.85 IronTed 547.20
20. slavesnyder 67.83 SinCItyAssassin 543.73
21. GamingCJ 67.11 James 531.58
22. Sterok 66.54 pitseleh 527.89
23. El Manco 65.47 TurnoftheCentury 514.97
24. Corporate Clown 64.59 Pachter 504.85
25. Peek-a-boo! 63.66 KillerMan91 498.20
26. Darth Smurf X 62.62 Astrogamer 484.08
27. Pachter 60.29 Limabean01 456.32
28. julian 59.70 Slarvax 434.68
29. esteh 58.34 Tbone5189 433.29
30. Tbone5189 46.07 wilmbreak 432.76
31. Fintendo 413.13
32. DarkDetective 327.50
33. skittzo0413 318.83
34. GamingCJ 290.21
35. BitchPudding 251.68
36. Aleh 251.58
37. WestEgg 220.91
38. Piston 195.74
39. neroxyr 191.53
40. Bitch Pudding 186.03
41. P Diddy 185.32
42. iag 156.97
43. CosmicBolt 149.83
44. NPTinker 148.56
45. Menx64 147.81
46. Tialo 141.47
47. srtrestre 127.90
48. score01 107.00
49. Juryvicious 103.39
50. mrfusticle 97.88Congratulations, Welfare! :D
I'm glad to see these new reliable polls have me leading again, I've always been leading, leading against awful awful people like sickle and Hammer24, jokester slavesnyder, and radical leader Lelouch0612, who still hasn't denied Geass as a Chinese tool of Satan.
:) I thought PS4 would kill me, glad I'm first again