AusPoliERA |OT| Section 44’d straight to Manus Island

Oct 27, 2017
931
Andrew Bolt has officially weighed in the election with the claim that the Liberals would have won if the PM was Peter Dutton. They’re completely certain there’s a silent majority hiding in Australia somewhere, despite our country having compulsory voting.

I’m convinced the LNP is 100% dead as we know it at this point. It’s going to transmute into the Republican Party and we can only hope that it’s not successful at winning elections.
Compulsory voting and a lack of gerrymandering is going to make electoral success a lot harder for the Coalition if it goes increasingly right-wing.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
Andrew Bolt has officially weighed in the election with the claim that the Liberals would have won if the PM was Peter Dutton. They’re completely certain there’s a silent majority hiding in Australia somewhere, despite our country having compulsory voting.

I’m convinced the LNP is 100% dead as we know it at this point. It’s going to transmute into the Republican Party and we can only hope that it’s not successful at winning elections.
There’s too many structural reasons they can’t copy the Republican playbook.

Mandatory preferential voting with 95% participation, the AEC, the complete lack of Evangelicals, every time they try and co opt a US culture war talking point it’s been an absolutely doomed endeavour.

Not to say right wing populism can’t work here Howard obviously showed it could but you can’t just pinch things out of Trump’s playbook and expect them to translate.
 
Nov 7, 2017
1,643
I just hope Federal Labor learn from this election. People want a positive party who actually leans to the left somewhat. So happy with this result and I hope it has some knock on effects to politics in this country.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,034
they've got it to the point where it functions decently if everybody works at 95% all the time but the entire network snarls and fucks itself if there's a single point of failure.

also there's trackwork seemingly every fucking weekend
Why does trackwork not prevent unexpected signal failures that seem to happen every other day? I thought that was the whole point of trackwork, so that things don't stop working when they're not supposed to!
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,450
I just hope Federal Labor learn from this election. People want a positive party who actually leans to the left somewhat. So happy with this result and I hope it has some knock on effects to politics in this country.
I hope it also shows the federal Labor party that a (relatively) charismatic, likeable leader is a positive thing to have. I really do hope that Shorten isn't their leader going into the 2019 election, but I think that's a very, VERY long shot.

So stoked right now to be Victorian now, though. The only thing I'm disappointed with is the Andrews gov't stance on greyhound racing in Victoria :/
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,643
Dan Andrews is hardly charismatic or likable.

The major difference is that literally everyone can see him doing shit. My dad has been a lifetime Liberal supporter and voted Labor for the first time in his life because Labor has finally got rid of those level crossings and is finally doing something about the bridge bottleneck around Fairfield. And that kickass proposed rail loop (Sunshine to Melbourne Airport is a complete game changer)?

The man doesn't care if children are being indoctrinated into gender fluid homosexual jihadist cultural marxism or if Victoria is being put into $100 trillion dollars of debt if the government is producing obvious results.

Speaking of polls:

I'm ready to accept some cultural marxism in my life, give it to me Bill.

Edit:
Also, apparently the solution is to TURN RIGHT TURN RIGHT TURN RIGHT
 
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Nov 7, 2017
1,643
I hope it also shows the federal Labor party that a (relatively) charismatic, likeable leader is a positive thing to have. I really do hope that Shorten isn't their leader going into the 2019 election, but I think that's a very, VERY long shot.

So stoked right now to be Victorian now, though. The only thing I'm disappointed with is the Andrews gov't stance on greyhound racing in Victoria :/
They couldn’t get rid of Shorten even if they wanted to and the backlash would be immense. I would say dumping Shorten is one of the few ways Labor could lose the next election.

I’m not a huge Shorten fan and I wish we had someone else leading the party going forward but until he loses an election he’s going nowhere IMO.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
Yeah it's pretty clear what went wrong. Some very telling reactions from the LNP;

Speaking to Sky, Kroger says the Victorian Liberals were beaten on policy, because Labor was offering so much free stuff.

That “free stuff” is things like breakfast for secondary school students (primary students already get it) and free sanitary products, and spending on infrastructure and services.

His argument seems to be people love governments spending on their infrastructure and services, and the Victorian Liberals could not compete with that.
Earlier this morning Josh Frydenberg also told Sky News that it was the spending in Victoria which outdid the Liberal opposition.

He mentions that there were “issues” which arose in health, public transport and the like and Daniel Andrews “threw money at it”.
They're basically complaining the Labor Party did politics and people responded to that and not their culture war sabre rattling which no one outside of the hard right wing lunatic fringe cares about.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,319
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-26/victorian-election-wake-up-call/10554088

The Liberal Party's electoral humiliation in Victoria has unleashed an internal fightback that has been brewing for several years and poses a significant challenge to Scott Morrison who is under pressure to save the party from electoral death.

The psychological impact of Saturday's devastating loss for the Liberals in Victoria means a number of MPs have decided they can no longer stay silent and must now openly and coherently battle to return the party to the centre-right or risk electoral oblivion at the next federal election and beyond.

Those who are not aligned with the hard right — a collection of Liberals from moderates to economic dries who are not big C conservatives — fear the threat to the Liberal Party is now existential.

They tell me the hard-right rhetoric and repudiation of mainstream values from a belief in climate change to gay rights is so toxic it has led lifetime Liberal voters to shun the party. One MP told me, "They are embarrassed to vote for us".
let's see if this goes anywhere at all lol
 
Oct 27, 2017
892
I see today that in September the Work for the Dole requirement increased for people aged 30 to 49: from 30 hours a fortnight to 50 hours a fortnight, to align with the requirements for people aged 18 to 29.

As someone who turned 30 this year, though not doing Work for the Dole, it's a kick in the guts. You get past the worst of it and they extend it 20 years on you. It's not like Work for the Dole actually works for people.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,082
Australia
I see today that in September the Work for the Dole requirement increased for people aged 30 to 49: from 30 hours a fortnight to 50 hours a fortnight, to align with the requirements for people aged 18 to 29.

As someone who turned 30 this year, though not doing Work for the Dole, it's a kick in the guts. You get past the worst of it and they extend it 20 years on you. It's not like Work for the Dole actually works for people.
Yeah, I got caught up in they. The WFD requirements were added to my job plan in September or October so I went in expecting 30 hours a fortnight and then after the first week or two I had my November monthly appointment with my services provider and they were just like "jk lol you need to do 50 a fortnight."

Which seems to me like reneging on the job plan we'd both already agreed to but of course changing the conditions on you after the fact like that is fine when you're the one in power
 
Oct 31, 2017
512
Question from the American who vaguely follows Australian politics from afar because he's a weird election geek - would there actually be a constituency for a Turnbull-ish like "True Liberal" party (ie. OK on social issues and climate change, middling to bad on economic and labor issues) or is it like the "NeverTrump" thing here in the US that basically doesn't exist outside of think tanks and Sunday news shows?
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,010
Question from the American who vaguely follows Australian politics from afar because he's a weird election geek - would there actually be a constituency for a Turnbull-ish like "True Liberal" party (ie. OK on social issues and climate change, middling to bad on economic and labor issues) or is it like the "NeverTrump" thing here in the US that basically doesn't exist outside of think tanks and Sunday news shows?
Unlike in the US, the center is actually genuinely important electorally because of compulsory voting. A party in Turnbull’s image probably would’ve been pretty successful in a general election. The issue is that the parliamentary party controls who is leader and on what terms, and they are predominately fucking cretins (not that Turnbull isn’t a fucking cretin in his own way).
 
Oct 27, 2017
892
Yeah, I got caught up in they. The WFD requirements were added to my job plan in September or October so I went in expecting 30 hours a fortnight and then after the first week or two I had my November monthly appointment with my services provider and they were just like "jk lol you need to do 50 a fortnight."

Which seems to me like reneging on the job plan we'd both already agreed to but of course changing the conditions on you after the fact like that is fine when you're the one in power
Oh that's awful, changing it partway through a phase.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
Question from the American who vaguely follows Australian politics from afar because he's a weird election geek - would there actually be a constituency for a Turnbull-ish like "True Liberal" party (ie. OK on social issues and climate change, middling to bad on economic and labor issues) or is it like the "NeverTrump" thing here in the US that basically doesn't exist outside of think tanks and Sunday news shows?
Yes they’d definitely have a real constituency, unlike Never Trump Republicans, the problem they’d have is it wouldn’t be big enough to win elections.

See the current Liberals (moderates and the right) already have to make a deal with a rural party called the Nationals to win. They already aren’t big enough to win as they are. Splitting the moderates and right and getting even smaller would doom them electorally, even if the Nationals went along with them (which there is no guarantee of).
 
Oct 29, 2017
2,671
Yes they’d definitely have a real constituency, unlike Never Trump Republicans, the problem they’d have is it wouldn’t be big enough to win elections.

See the current Liberals (moderates and the right) already have to make a deal with a rural party called the Nationals to win. They already aren’t big enough to win as they are. Splitting the moderates and right and getting even smaller would doom them electorally, even if the Nationals went along with them (which there is no guarantee of).
Theoretically they would still win on preferences though, right? As surely a centre right party would have their preferences flow to LNP candidates before Labor.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
Theoretically they would still win on preferences though, right? As surely a centre right party would have their preferences flow to LNP candidates before Labor.
Some but not all. Look at how moderates in East Melbourne voted.

It’s really difficult to manage preference flows like that against a big major party that’s unified.

It’s kind of why Menzies formed the party in the first place he wanted to unite the anti Labor vote under one banner.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,319
preferences are a nightmare for a reliable voting block (imho a good thing democratically speaking) since the microparties know that they actually have power and will flip on a whim to get their specific needs met
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,450
I still can't believe this fuckhead, a known bully got 25% of the primary vote in Geelong:


Thankfully I'm not in that electorate (barely), but absolutely would've voted against him if I had the chance.

Cunt.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
Guy Fieri looking RIPPED

preferences are a nightmare for a reliable voting block (imho a good thing democratically speaking) since the microparties know that they actually have power and will flip on a whim to get their specific needs met
Yeah general electoral wisdom is you want as high a first preference vote as possible, since it mitigates preference harvesting, people not following your how to vote cards, people voting below the line in the upper house, etc.
 
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Oct 28, 2017
1,643
Ripped? With a gut like that, he's probably going to be welcoming us to HGHtown lmao.


Let's see if Morrison will achieve what Abbott and Turnbull couldn't.

(He won't, Bill is possibly the greatest void of all time.)

Edit: Like I don't get what the LNP strategy is. They can go on and on about Bill wanting his Apex Gang to rape all the whites in Australia but it still wouldn't do anything the minute Bill goes on TV and says "I'm going to build things and the other guy isn't lol".
 
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Oct 31, 2017
512
Yes they’d definitely have a real constituency, unlike Never Trump Republicans, the problem they’d have is it wouldn’t be big enough to win elections.

See the current Liberals (moderates and the right) already have to make a deal with a rural party called the Nationals to win. They already aren’t big enough to win as they are. Splitting the moderates and right and getting even smaller would doom them electorally, even if the Nationals went along with them (which there is no guarantee of).
Oh, I'm a dork enough to know all that stuff. Just wasn't sure of the actual split within the Liberal side of things.

So, in theory, it'd be something like, in a 50/50 election, 10% Green, 40% Labor, 10% 'True Liberals', 20% Liberal 10% National, 5-10% One Nation, 0-5% Assorted other parties?
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
Oh, I'm a dork enough to know all that stuff. Just wasn't sure of the actual split within the Liberal side of things.

So, in theory, it'd be something like, in a 50/50 election, 10% Green, 40% Labor, 10% 'True Liberals', 20% Liberal 10% National, 5-10% One Nation, 0-5% Assorted other parties?
It’s difficult to be precise, but this guess looks as good as any to me. Green vote might be a tad high.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,319
After the Greens drubbing in Vic I would probably revise downwards. Amazingly the socialists seem to have stolen some of their inner city audience.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
They definitely had a shocker of a campaign in Victoria, some of which was scandal based and won't necessarily happen again, but Andrews also sort of took all their oxygen away on social issues and it's really, really hard to out organised a political party whose organisational core is the trade union movement.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,643
After the Greens drubbing in Vic I would probably revise downwards. Amazingly the socialists seem to have stolen some of their inner city audience.
Greens have an internal civil war between the Blue Greens/Tree Tories (NIMBY fuckers who love capitalism and avoid social issues but want to look sustainable and eco-friendly) and Watermelons (socialists). If you were attracted by "kill all landowners" ironic left wing politics that you're seeing plastered around areas like Reservoir, you'd just join the socialists. Which is exactly what happened.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,319
frydenberg and morrison speech right now about the budget banging on about how a good economy is good for services, which is great, except services appears to be just border control and defence and then they cut the shit out of everything else, so
 
So they're announcing the announcement of an April budget in late November
With a surplus

Yikes Julia Banks just defected to the cross bench from the government
5 mins later no one cares a jot about the surplus.

Apparently a journo yelled out during the ScoMo/Frydenburg presser "that she's doing it now" and everyone left to report on Banks. Clown Show.
 
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