AusPoliERA |OT| Section 44’d straight to Manus Island

Oct 25, 2017
1,010
Printing 5k
Investigative journalism 1k
Fact checking $500
Judith Sloan 375k
Advertising 10k

someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my industry is dying
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,643
I think they see the writing on the wall.


If the ReachTEL poll is remotely accurate, no shit they're flailing right now. How is a conservative party at risk of losing a seat that contains Toorak?
 
Oct 31, 2017
512
So, again, dumb interested American here, are the places you guys talking about the Liberals losing places closer to say, Orange County in California or like, rural Wyoming or Oklahoma.
 
Nov 14, 2017
868
So, again, dumb interested American here, are the places you guys talking about the Liberals losing places closer to say, Orange County in California or like, rural Wyoming or Oklahoma.
https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/2016/files/2016-aec-results-map.pdf

Mostly sub/urban. If you take a look at the nationwide map, most of the larger regional seats that Labor currently hold are swing seats that have historically gone back and forth (Lingiari being a notable exception, Hunter too), whereas the Liberal/National seats are safer (unless there's an independent running because the Nationals are highly incompetent).
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
Oct 28, 2017
1,643
So, again, dumb interested American here, are the places you guys talking about the Liberals losing places closer to say, Orange County in California or like, rural Wyoming or Oklahoma.
Normal Bird has it right. Urban and suburbs are swinging hard against the LNP while the Nationals might get knocked off in the rurals if a competent Independent runs due to compulsory and preferential voting. The Nationals are typically super useless for their rural constituents, Barnaby Joyce is possibly the odd exception and that's only because he pork barrels the shit out of Armidale.

In the case of the Division of Higgins, Orange County is probably a good analogy. The Liberals shouldn't be at risk of losing a seat that contains a suburb known for their luxury SUVs (colloquially known as "Toorak tractors") and corpulent mansions but the poll I linked above is nasty enough that the incumbent Kelly O'Dwyer is all of a sudden concerned about homophobia, sexism and climate change. Division of Wentworth, previously held by former PM Malcolm Turnbull, is another wealthy suburban seat (in fact, Vaucluse is the wealthiest suburb in NSW) that the LNP recently lost.
 
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Oct 27, 2017
2,450
Can I just say that I'll be so fucking glad when Sarah Henderson is finally ditched? Again, not in my electorate but she'll do anything for a photo op even outside of Corangamite.
 
Oct 27, 2017
322
they've got it to the point where it functions decently if everybody works at 95% all the time but the entire network snarls and fucks itself if there's a single point of failure.

also there's trackwork seemingly every fucking weekend
I mean I reside on one of the lines where it's always goes down for maintenance but that's because of the state government playing catch up to the shit job that Napthine did.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
People have pointed out the rule change is a bit slap dash and can be undone by a simple majority vote, so if it really was on the party room would merely need to change the rule then move the spill.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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i can't take morrison's fucking bleating anymore. what a shithead.

bleating about it being labor's fault they can't protect kids in the religious discrimination bill when the libs intentionally introduced language to undercut the whole thing. dumbfuck.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
Can't believe they're letting this issue drag into an election year. They really are prioritising short term thinking over any chance of not being completely wiped out in an election.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,319
honestly i'm livid about that press conference even though it was relatively minor in the scheme of things. Morrison trying to bleat on about how nasty labor wasn't letting him protect the kids and religion, why won't they just let me protect everyone? What horrid people, deflecting like crazy whenever any journo asked him about 'hey aren't churches super anti LGBT', and then peacing out to do the literary awards

let's not even go near encryption today which the ALP look like they're about to fold on and cripple our digital infrastructure even more than it already is
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,643
Marginal seat polling can get wonky but swings that large still do indicate that the LNP is kind of fucked.

Also, it looks like John Pesutto might have finally lost his seat. The Liberals losing Hawthorn is really something, a 9% swing what the fuuuuuck.
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
I’m trying to remember an example the past few years where polling hasn’t overstated the LNP vote.

IIRC polling either got the result right, or underestimated the Labor or Indepdent vote in the WA, Qld state elections, Super Saturday, Wentworth, Wagga Wagga, Victorian State election

Paints a grim picture for the LNP
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,319
if someone has the energy before i do it might be worth posting an encryption topic to ETC so everyone can tell us how shit our government is again
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,643
I guess the LNP saw North Carolina and Georgia and figured that its pretty easy to win elections if you try and find ways to stop people from voting.

Also, what's this thing going on right now?

 
Oct 28, 2017
1,643
Dunno but ScoMo is melting down over the threat of people crossing the floor.
I mean, seriously guys, let the scale fall from your eyes. This is not about politics.This is about Australia’s national security. That’s why I’m standing here. This is about Australia’s national security. It’s not about what happens on the floor of the house or the floor of the Senate. You got to look past Canberra. This is about Australia’s safety. And Bill Shorten is a clear and present threat to Australia’s safety. Because he is so obsessed with politics, that he cannot see the national interest.

We've also got this goddamn gem:

"But you see, Labor and the Greens are the real sexists because they keep beating female LNP candidates in elections. If they really actually liked women, they should have let them win."

The LNP is straight up Republican Party at this point. Nothing but grievance politics.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,143
Now everybody gets an early mark because the govt doesn't want to let sick kids be treated in Australia off Nauru. They can't seem to be embarrassed by not having the numbers to stop it, even now the 'critical encryption bill' won't pass because they left early.

They are blaming the crossbench and labour saying the Nauru amendment means they have blood on their hands if a terrorist attack occurs! What the fuck is this bullshit?

  1. Do your jobs! We don't get to go home early and for sure you don't either. 10 sitting days for the next 8 Months!
  2. This rushed encryption bill is a disaster, a terrible idea say industry groups and experts. Kill it.
  3. Let refugees get medical care they desperately need.
  4. The government has no one to blame but itself for this carnival of stupid that rolls on while we pay for it.
  5. Election now!
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,143
Now labor rolls over on encryption to let it through without amendments! Wtf they are all a joke.

What this shows is that Labor can't even take a whiff of an attack on national security. Stand up for fucks sake.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,643
To be fair on Labor there, they got slaughtered over national security/immigration and the emissions trading scheme in the past. It goes without saying that they're probably a little cagey about these things.

There's better angles to go about this but Labor passed this through with the argument that they're keeping "Australians safe over Christmas". From a practical standpoint, I don't see how this law exists as it is for an extended period of time if ASIO can discretely force employees of tech companies to put in vulnerabilities unknown to their employers. No tech company is going to want having skilled workers in Australia if that's the case, CISCO has already issued threats to the Australian government.

Either tech companies pack up and leave an ultimately small market or the Australian government folds and rolls back these laws. I don't see any middle ground, intentionally putting vulnerabilities into your product is shit that kills your brand reputation overnight.

Like I'm fucking pissed off that they folded on this technologically illiterate piece of legislation but I can only assume there's a reason that Labor preemptively folded on their stance.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,010
To be fair on Labor there, they got slaughtered over national security/immigration and the emissions trading scheme in the past. It goes without saying that they're probably a little cagey about these things.

There's better angles to go about this but Labor passed this through with the argument that they're keeping "Australians safe over Christmas". From a practical standpoint, I don't see how this law exists as it is for an extended period of time if ASIO can discretely force employees of tech companies to put in vulnerabilities unknown to their employers. No tech company is going to want having skilled workers in Australia if that's the case, CISCO has already issued threats to the Australian government.

Either tech companies pack up and leave an ultimately small market or the Australian government folds and rolls back these laws. I don't see any middle ground, intentionally putting vulnerabilities into your product is shit that kills your brand reputation overnight.

Like I'm fucking pissed off that they folded on this technologically illiterate piece of legislation but I can only assume there's a reason that Labor preemptively folded on their stance.
Fuck that, demand better
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,319
tech companies should up and leave. maybe seeing a bunch of quasi-essential services (maybe essential services?) fuck off would get politicians to actually read and understand the fucking bills they're trying to pass
 
Oct 29, 2017
4,112
Sydney
It’s a fantasy but having someone like Apple pack up and leave the country for a year would be perfect because it’s the only thing that would excite the public enough to turn them against this stupidity.

Of course then I get all depressed a company has that power in the first place
 
Oct 27, 2017
861
It’s a fantasy but having someone like Apple pack up and leave the country for a year would be perfect because it’s the only thing that would excite the public enough to turn them against this stupidity.

Of course then I get all depressed a company has that power in the first place
I'm also conflicted about that power being exerted. But they *should* leave. This isn't the GST where it impacts their local cash flow. When people notice this bill Australian tech will (sense willing) be poison.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,034
Who the fuck passes legislation because the guys who want it to pass claim they'll fix it up later? What's the bet they say fuck, we've only got 10 sitting days this year, better not waste our time on this shit!