Compulsory voting and a lack of gerrymandering is going to make electoral success a lot harder for the Coalition if it goes increasingly right-wing.
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AusPoliERA |OT| Section 44’d straight to Manus Island
- Thread starter Bernie Bernbaum
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There's too many structural reasons they can't copy the Republican playbook.
Mandatory preferential voting with 95% participation, the AEC, the complete lack of Evangelicals, every time they try and co opt a US culture war talking point it's been an absolutely doomed endeavour.
Not to say right wing populism can't work here Howard obviously showed it could but you can't just pinch things out of Trump's playbook and expect them to translate.
https://australianelectionstudy.org/charts.html
I ran into this long-term electorate study the other day with interactive charts and my big take aways were that the public:
- Think the LNP is better holding the purse strings
- Hate immigration
- Generally lean left on most other issues
I ran into this long-term electorate study the other day with interactive charts and my big take aways were that the public:
- Think the LNP is better holding the purse strings
- Hate immigration
- Generally lean left on most other issues
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I just hope Federal Labor learn from this election. People want a positive party who actually leans to the left somewhat. So happy with this result and I hope it has some knock on effects to politics in this country.
Why does trackwork not prevent unexpected signal failures that seem to happen every other day? I thought that was the whole point of trackwork, so that things don't stop working when they're not supposed to!
I hope it also shows the federal Labor party that a (relatively) charismatic, likeable leader is a positive thing to have. I really do hope that Shorten isn't their leader going into the 2019 election, but I think that's a very, VERY long shot.
So stoked right now to be Victorian now, though. The only thing I'm disappointed with is the Andrews gov't stance on greyhound racing in Victoria :/
Dan Andrews is hardly charismatic or likable.
The major difference is that literally everyone can see him doing shit. My dad has been a lifetime Liberal supporter and voted Labor for the first time in his life because Labor has finally got rid of those level crossings and is finally doing something about the bridge bottleneck around Fairfield. And that kickass proposed rail loop (Sunshine to Melbourne Airport is a complete game changer)?
The man doesn't care if children are being indoctrinated into gender fluid homosexual jihadist cultural marxism or if Victoria is being put into $100 trillion dollars of debt if the government is producing obvious results.
Speaking of polls:
I'm ready to accept some cultural marxism in my life, give it to me Bill.
Edit:
Also, apparently the solution is to TURN RIGHT TURN RIGHT TURN RIGHT
The major difference is that literally everyone can see him doing shit. My dad has been a lifetime Liberal supporter and voted Labor for the first time in his life because Labor has finally got rid of those level crossings and is finally doing something about the bridge bottleneck around Fairfield. And that kickass proposed rail loop (Sunshine to Melbourne Airport is a complete game changer)?
The man doesn't care if children are being indoctrinated into gender fluid homosexual jihadist cultural marxism or if Victoria is being put into $100 trillion dollars of debt if the government is producing obvious results.
Speaking of polls:
I'm ready to accept some cultural marxism in my life, give it to me Bill.
Edit:
Also, apparently the solution is to TURN RIGHT TURN RIGHT TURN RIGHT
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They couldn't get rid of Shorten even if they wanted to and the backlash would be immense. I would say dumping Shorten is one of the few ways Labor could lose the next election.
I'm not a huge Shorten fan and I wish we had someone else leading the party going forward but until he loses an election he's going nowhere IMO.
Yeah it's pretty clear what went wrong. Some very telling reactions from the LNP;
They're basically complaining the Labor Party did politics and people responded to that and not their culture war sabre rattling which no one outside of the hard right wing lunatic fringe cares about.
They're basically complaining the Labor Party did politics and people responded to that and not their culture war sabre rattling which no one outside of the hard right wing lunatic fringe cares about.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-26/victorian-election-wake-up-call/10554088
let's see if this goes anywhere at all lol
let's see if this goes anywhere at all lol
I see today that in September the Work for the Dole requirement increased for people aged 30 to 49: from 30 hours a fortnight to 50 hours a fortnight, to align with the requirements for people aged 18 to 29.
As someone who turned 30 this year, though not doing Work for the Dole, it's a kick in the guts. You get past the worst of it and they extend it 20 years on you. It's not like Work for the Dole actually works for people.
As someone who turned 30 this year, though not doing Work for the Dole, it's a kick in the guts. You get past the worst of it and they extend it 20 years on you. It's not like Work for the Dole actually works for people.
Yeah, I got caught up in they. The WFD requirements were added to my job plan in September or October so I went in expecting 30 hours a fortnight and then after the first week or two I had my November monthly appointment with my services provider and they were just like "jk lol you need to do 50 a fortnight."
Which seems to me like reneging on the job plan we'd both already agreed to but of course changing the conditions on you after the fact like that is fine when you're the one in power
Question from the American who vaguely follows Australian politics from afar because he's a weird election geek - would there actually be a constituency for a Turnbull-ish like "True Liberal" party (ie. OK on social issues and climate change, middling to bad on economic and labor issues) or is it like the "NeverTrump" thing here in the US that basically doesn't exist outside of think tanks and Sunday news shows?
Unlike in the US, the center is actually genuinely important electorally because of compulsory voting. A party in Turnbull's image probably would've been pretty successful in a general election. The issue is that the parliamentary party controls who is leader and on what terms, and they are predominately fucking cretins (not that Turnbull isn't a fucking cretin in his own way).
Oh that's awful, changing it partway through a phase.
Yes they'd definitely have a real constituency, unlike Never Trump Republicans, the problem they'd have is it wouldn't be big enough to win elections.
See the current Liberals (moderates and the right) already have to make a deal with a rural party called the Nationals to win. They already aren't big enough to win as they are. Splitting the moderates and right and getting even smaller would doom them electorally, even if the Nationals went along with them (which there is no guarantee of).
Theoretically they would still win on preferences though, right? As surely a centre right party would have their preferences flow to LNP candidates before Labor.
Some but not all. Look at how moderates in East Melbourne voted.
It's really difficult to manage preference flows like that against a big major party that's unified.
It's kind of why Menzies formed the party in the first place he wanted to unite the anti Labor vote under one banner.
I still can't believe this fuckhead, a known bully got 25% of the primary vote in Geelong:
Thankfully I'm not in that electorate (barely), but absolutely would've voted against him if I had the chance.
Cunt.
Thankfully I'm not in that electorate (barely), but absolutely would've voted against him if I had the chance.
Cunt.
Guy Fieri looking RIPPED
Yeah general electoral wisdom is you want as high a first preference vote as possible, since it mitigates preference harvesting, people not following your how to vote cards, people voting below the line in the upper house, etc.
Yeah general electoral wisdom is you want as high a first preference vote as possible, since it mitigates preference harvesting, people not following your how to vote cards, people voting below the line in the upper house, etc.
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Ripped? With a gut like that, he's probably going to be welcoming us to HGHtown lmao.
Let's see if Morrison will achieve what Abbott and Turnbull couldn't.
(He won't, Bill is possibly the greatest void of all time.)
Edit: Like I don't get what the LNP strategy is. They can go on and on about Bill wanting his Apex Gang to rape all the whites in Australia but it still wouldn't do anything the minute Bill goes on TV and says "I'm going to build things and the other guy isn't lol".
Let's see if Morrison will achieve what Abbott and Turnbull couldn't.
(He won't, Bill is possibly the greatest void of all time.)
Edit: Like I don't get what the LNP strategy is. They can go on and on about Bill wanting his Apex Gang to rape all the whites in Australia but it still wouldn't do anything the minute Bill goes on TV and says "I'm going to build things and the other guy isn't lol".
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Bill Shorten is the Afghanistan of personality campaigns for Liberal leaders.
Oh, I'm a dork enough to know all that stuff. Just wasn't sure of the actual split within the Liberal side of things.
So, in theory, it'd be something like, in a 50/50 election, 10% Green, 40% Labor, 10% 'True Liberals', 20% Liberal 10% National, 5-10% One Nation, 0-5% Assorted other parties?
It's difficult to be precise, but this guess looks as good as any to me. Green vote might be a tad high.
They definitely had a shocker of a campaign in Victoria, some of which was scandal based and won't necessarily happen again, but Andrews also sort of took all their oxygen away on social issues and it's really, really hard to out organised a political party whose organisational core is the trade union movement.
Greens have an internal civil war between the Blue Greens/Tree Tories (NIMBY fuckers who love capitalism and avoid social issues but want to look sustainable and eco-friendly) and Watermelons (socialists). If you were attracted by "kill all landowners" ironic left wing politics that you're seeing plastered around areas like Reservoir, you'd just join the socialists. Which is exactly what happened.
frydenberg and morrison speech right now about the budget banging on about how a good economy is good for services, which is great, except services appears to be just border control and defence and then they cut the shit out of everything else, so
With a surplus
5 mins later no one cares a jot about the surplus.
Apparently a journo yelled out during the ScoMo/Frydenburg presser "that she's doing it now" and everyone left to report on Banks. Clown Show.
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Nothing, unless there's a successful vote of no confidence.
Australia freeze cuts to "Executive Producer - Donald P. Bellisario".
Nobody has to go to work and it's a snow day. Mods also can't ban us
Seriously though she's giving supply and confidence so the government won't fall but all sorts of fun stuff like a Federal ICAC and Dutton being referred to the High Court can happen.
What fantastic timing by Banks, right in the middle of the budget announcement, completely torpedoing Morrison.
He actually had cosmetic surgery on his abs and I hate myself for knowing this.
I didn't look that closely before and assumed it was a George Michael from Arrested Development muscle suit because of how absurd it was. Fuck.
