Maybe people put money on liberal to win and votes for them. Obviously not what happened but betting shouldn’t be allowed on the election.
Australia 2019 Federal Election |OT| Scott Morrison shat his pants at Engadine Maccas in 1997 after the Sharks lost the Grand Final
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Betting markets are one thing, but the polls were wrong and outside the margin of error in some states.
There are allegations they were herded as well (basically pollsters copy each other to come to consensus results so they don’t look like an outlier and make their polling look bad).
Pretty disastrous night for opinion polling in general, and it may be even worse than the 2016 US election because while there you could say the Electoral College distorted the result, here you have no such excuse.
There are allegations they were herded as well (basically pollsters copy each other to come to consensus results so they don’t look like an outlier and make their polling look bad).
Pretty disastrous night for opinion polling in general, and it may be even worse than the 2016 US election because while there you could say the Electoral College distorted the result, here you have no such excuse.
Pretty obvious where we should look for polling data from now on...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ne...n/news-story/33ecf6b6c7b70e33b42146350d442e9a
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ne...n/news-story/33ecf6b6c7b70e33b42146350d442e9a
We're also talking about every single poll over years, not just the final surveys or the exit polls. The entire frame was distorted. Does anyone now think Turnbull couldn't have won this election?
qlders (and really everyone) loves public ownership so just build some fucking publicly owned manufacturing facilities up in there
the national polling in the us actually predicted trump winning but all the aggregates fucked it up on state assumptions. pollsters here are super secretive of their methodology unlike most other countries so theyre gonna be extra fucked on explaining what went wrong
Dunno, given the polling got Super Saturday and the Vic election so wrong, just in Labor’s favour, I have no idea.
What it will do though is remove Newspoll as a pressure on incumbents. The government lost every 2PP since 2016 but won the election easily. That is incredible.
Some ideas for the LNP if they want to neutralise this tactic a few years down the line, just spitballing. Manufacturing fake ornamental coral and dropping it off charter boats to maintain the reef as a tourist attraction as the ocean turns to acid. Subsidising Adani's coal output by buying it up and just burning it in a big open pit because it's uneconomical for power generation. Maybe a plant for manufacturing signs to be used at grass roots protests in support of taxing welfare and pension recipients to pay for a "thank-you" dividend to investors over a certain income threshold.
Imagine the jobs publicly owned prison camps for immigrants would create!
The fact that people are blaming the Greens for children wanting a liveable world is making my blood boil
They'd have to be FIFO though, can't have them onshore.
A Greens candidate in the NSW election was stood down from casual teaching positions for mentioning the climate strike during a community forum. Basically just more evidence that conservatives are a bunch of massive snowflakes about everything.
You know Catholics/Christians are dumb fucks. When they actually think God was the reason that ScoMo won.
These facebooks comments and my crazy religious cousins comments. Sigh.
These facebooks comments and my crazy religious cousins comments. Sigh.
It looks as though it's going to basically be almost the same result as 2016. Re-distributions and people leaving aside, not a whole lot has happened in an overall sense. +1s, -1s, nothing dramatic at all. Plenty of room for a better labor leader to make gains in three years and the coalition still have to deal with a slim majority in the house, something they frequently fuck up either intentionally from the far right or just incompetently, and the cross bench in the senate still requires reaching across the isle.
The Centre Left MUST wake the fuck up before it's too late to salvage the Overton window. Piling so many chips down on identity politics is not working, and don't even get me started on the laughable mess that is climate change, which is a ticking time bomb that people just refuse to pull their heads out of the sand to acknowledge.
Can you give some examples of what you’re talking about here, and why you think they’re not working?
Sad, unfortunate results. All those who voted conservative should be shamed for their support of racist institutions.
I mean... She'd be pretty good as well? I think?
At least it's incentive for Albo to drop the sucking up to the right act, as it seems they will never trust him. Unfortunately, I'm also worried that if he gets into the chair it'll be Turnbull all over again.
At least it's incentive for Albo to drop the sucking up to the right act, as it seems they will never trust him. Unfortunately, I'm also worried that if he gets into the chair it'll be Turnbull all over again.
Ultimately they need to figure out how the fuck they get Queenslanders and Tasmanians to vote for them. Whichever leader can deliver that is the one they need :p
It’s become more like “stop talking about minority issues” even though naked appeals to keeping Australia white or whatever is also identity politics.
Turnbull got shafted because he tried a modicum of effort in addressing climate and energy issues. The hard right of the Libs will revolt every time.
That being said, the champion of the Liberal Right, Abbott, is gone, quite explicitly because his electorate were fed up with him opposing any kind of climate change mitigation policy and him being opposed to stuff like same-sex marriage. Between that and the Centre Alliance and Lambie (who is more Labor economically) holding the balance of power, they're gonna have a hard time dodging the issue.
The air was certainly a lot fresher today.
If people wanted a Labor victory so much, why didn't they convince their friends and friends of friends to vote for them ?
I'm extremely comfortable with the LNP winning
If people wanted a Labor victory so much, why didn't they convince their friends and friends of friends to vote for them ?
I'm extremely comfortable with the LNP winning
I didn’t realise this was an option?! Do you have any more advice?
Maybe because I live in an extremely safe left seat, and both adjourning seats are too?
Yeah, we totally should've convinced all our QLD friends that they should've voted Labor.
So, what exactly are we taking away from this? Should Labor have stuck to a platform lighter on policy? Should they have hung the Libs out to dry over the latter's dishonesty and profligate spending? Could they have won with a more charismatic leader?
Something that IS clear, in any case, is that there is an enormous urban/rural divide and the Nats absolutely steamrolled everyone:
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-the-2019-australian-election-track-the-votes
Labor need to come up with some sort of incentive to wrest back a portion of the rural vote.
Something that IS clear, in any case, is that there is an enormous urban/rural divide and the Nats absolutely steamrolled everyone:
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-the-2019-australian-election-track-the-votes
Labor need to come up with some sort of incentive to wrest back a portion of the rural vote.
Rural vote wants the good times (ie the mining boom) to roll again and Adani was seen as the great white hope for all those people who had become dependent on that huge injection of cash. Labor cannot promise those days will come back, even for a while, especially since nobody will lend Adani the necessary funds to build the mine.
I’ve never heard anyone say that Shorten was their preferred leader. Nobody likes that guy.
Why is that though? Never understood why he's always been the less preferred leader.
Bad press with him and unions and corruption. Murdoch basically.
