Australia 2019 Federal Election |OT| Scott Morrison shat his pants at Engadine Maccas in 1997 after the Sharks lost the Grand Final

Oct 28, 2017
2,152
Absolutely unsurprising. Abbott's campaign in Warringag is literally "BUT LABOR WASTE" and "BUT LABOR DISCORD". That's not a winning campaign.
 
Nov 14, 2017
1,252
In absolute awe of the passion behind this grassroots opposition to Labor's repeal of the free money for retired investors scheme.

IMO they should have to say "Authorised by etc..." in the same voice as the ads after every chanted slogan too.
 
OP
OP
hidys

hidys

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
712
We have an Ipsos poll.



For those who don't follow polling please note that Ipsos has an over inflated green vote.
 

Daphne

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
1,612
It really bothers me how close the polls are considering the utter shit show of the last six years. It really shows the power of the media to back the LNP. Also, I'll be glad to stop seeing those "Make Australia Great" Palmer billboards around Brisbane.
 

Deleted member 24112

User requested account deletion
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
241
It really bothers me how close the polls are considering the utter shit show of the last six years. It really shows the power of the media to back the LNP. Also, I'll be glad to stop seeing those "Make Australia Great" Palmer billboards around Brisbane.
Brisbane represent! Me too. I'm sick of seeing Clive Palmer billboards eveywhere. QLD would be crazy to vote for UAP since he fucked over people who worked for QLD Nickel. He's a dreadful person but people have amnesia I guess.


Also, speaking of the Newspoll, apparently it's closer to 52 - 48 than 51 - 49.

 
Oct 28, 2017
2,152

Open Twitter thread to read David Pope dunk on this guy getting ratioed.

Also: cartoon highlights Finance Minister’s confusion over the concept of taxation.
 

Daphne

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
1,612
Judging by their campaign, the only thing the LNP have is the old usual, factually ridiculous scaremongering over a "weak economy" and "high taxes and debt" if Labor gets in. They really have nothing else, and it's kinda reassuring to see them believe the voters to be idiots. Now I just need that to be actually the case. I don't *think* it is for the most part.
 

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,659
Sydney
We have an Ipsos poll.



For those who don't follow polling please note that Ipsos has an over inflated green vote.
Yeah Greens at 14 seem hard to believe.

Doesn't seem like very good news for them.

You never know honestly, but everything does seem to suggest people have made up their minds and tuned out, which seems to be supported by the truly massive numbers of pre-poll voting.
 

Shaneus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,104

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,659
Sydney
Can you clarify for me, I know it still shows the Libs slightly ahead, but Greens preferences (even with inflated numbers) put Labor in quite handily, yes?
Yes. For some context in 2016, the Coalition got a 42% primary vote, which became 50.36 on a two party preferred basis and translated into 76 seats.
 

Mavis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
741
Blue Mountains
Can you clarify for me, I know it still shows the Libs slightly ahead, but Greens preferences (even with inflated numbers) put Labor in quite handily, yes?

Edit:

78-79 seats... how many are there in total? Is that enough for a clear majority?
This Calculator lets you see what the swing should be based on %, also has recent polls so you can select one to see the effect. Not sure how accurate it is:- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/federal-election-2019-antony-green-house-of-reps-calculator/10872122
 

Window

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,363
Can you clarify for me, I know it still shows the Libs slightly ahead, but Greens preferences (even with inflated numbers) put Labor in quite handily, yes?

Edit:

78-79 seats... how many are there in total? Is that enough for a clear majority?
There will be 151 seats in the house of representatives after the election. So anything above 75 allows Labor to have a majority of seats and form government regardless of how other seats are distributed between other parties. Otherwise they need to have the plurality of seats.
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,152
You never know honestly, but everything does seem to suggest people have made up their minds and tuned out, which seems to be supported by the truly massive numbers of pre-poll voting.
To put things into perspective, primary votes have not moved from the margin of error since the election has been called. The only changes to 2PP have been Newspoll fiddling with the numbers, which may or may not be warranted. And even then the primary vote is still in favour of Labor.


Andrew Bolt is going in early with his "fuck the voters".
 

Solar Puffin

Member
Oct 8, 2018
3,946
Sydney
Clive Palmers advertising campaign is getting really damn annoying.
I want to say "Lmao who would vote for this dunce." But after trump, I don't know anymore.
I'm seeing like multiple ads on youtube for Clive each day.
 

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,659
Sydney
Incredible projection from Bolt there. Suppose he is pretty disappointed though since because of the Victorian State election and Christchurch the Liberal Party hasn't been able to go full race war like he'd probably wanted.
 

FUME5

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,118
Man, I'm getting UAP ads on this site, what's next, One Nation?

Andrew Bolt can also feel free to fuck right off.
 

Jintor

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,079
you can't move for UAP ads on facebook. to be fair i'm getting some lib and greens ones as well but they're more targetted because they actually mention my district (IP address I'm guessing)

ol Clive seems to be just going for blanket saturation for some stupid ass reason
 

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,659
Sydney
He'd be better off focusing on Queensland since it's the only state where he'd be liable to get any Upper or Lower House seats.

Throwing millions into contests in NSW and Victoria is baffling.
 

Miso

Banned
Nov 1, 2017
453
Northen Beaches
Absolutely unsurprising. Abbott's campaign in Warringag is literally "BUT LABOR WASTE" and "BUT LABOR DISCORD". That's not a winning campaign.
It's worse than that - the Abbot volunteers are walking around with signs saying 'A vote for Steggall is a vote for Shorten'. It's outside his campaign office. It's on a back of a truck.

No policy. Nothing. Just that shit. Useless bastard.

I'm confident he's fucked. Even the Labor candidate was out and about on the weekend. They don't normally bother showing their faces in Warringah/Manly.
 
OP
OP
hidys

hidys

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
712
Can you clarify for me, I know it still shows the Libs slightly ahead, but Greens preferences (even with inflated numbers) put Labor in quite handily, yes?

Edit:

78-79 seats... how many are there in total? Is that enough for a clear majority?
yeah but it is literally by 3-4 seats.
 

Window

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,363
Maybe too early to have this discussion but would the LNP really have performed worse under Turnbull's leadership?
 
Last edited:
Nov 14, 2017
1,252

wonzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,167
Do we revise our view on Ipsos' 14% or is this just a blip? To be clear, not that I think the Greens are going to get 15% total first preferences or something, but maybe they stay comfortably above 10?
ipsos is wildly innacurate when it comes to pretty much all parties so i wouldn’t put much stock in it. i think 11-12% is the upper limit for the greens as theyve been stuck on 9-10% for ages now. guess it helps theyre not having a disaster of a campaign like victoria or a shithead buckingham wreckin the whole joint. i do think the record voter registration numbers (especially for the youth vote) will help em

should note essential’s greens numbers have been a tad more volatile since the election started so it could just be statistical noise
 

Overflow

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,935
Wollongong
If Libs somehow scrape through at the last moment I think I'll have to take an angry shit in the Engadine Macca's in protest.

I'm looking forward to hearing the shit-fit some boomers are going to throw in response to the franking credit corrections.