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Avatar bet time: The Rise of Skywalker won't make over $200m opening weekend domestically
- Thread starter chezzymann
- Start date
Pirates: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
$423 million domestic
$1.066 million WW
Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith (2005)
$380 million domestic
$848 million WW
Pirates kicked Sith's ass.
Phantom Menace sucked, and Attack of the Clones really sucked. They were openly mocked and deried in mainstream media. Revenge of the Sith still had a bigger opening weekend than either of them.
Even if some huge majority of people secretly disliked The Last Jedi, that still doesn't mean that Rise of Skywalker won't be absolutely huge. I don't think you can underestimate the draw of it as the finale and conclusion to a huge saga.
Even if some huge majority of people secretly disliked The Last Jedi, that still doesn't mean that Rise of Skywalker won't be absolutely huge. I don't think you can underestimate the draw of it as the finale and conclusion to a huge saga.
The loudest TLJ haters will be there opening weekend and the first to preorder tickets.
If you can't shut up about a movie for two years straight you aren't skipping its sequel.
Everyone insisting Star Wars is dead will be there to see it in theaters.
The prequels got their ass kicked in the 2000s to be fairly honest. Attack of the Clones got destroyed by Spider-Man head to head, Revenge of the Sith got whupped by Pirates 2 and Shrek 2.
the fall from TFA to TLJ was near identical to the drop of ESB from ANH and AOTC from TPM.
To the point it's almost eerie how near exactly close they all 3 were in their drop.
And ROTJ and ROTS both went on to rebound over AOTC and ESB.
if the pattern continues to hold we will get 4>6>5 1>3>2 and 7>9>8
OP
OP
Remember how Fast & Furious 7 had the biggest opening and biggest box office take of the entire series because people had a kind of morbid curiousity about how they were going to bid farewell to Paul Walker?
Rise of Skywalker will probably have a similar "appeal" due to it being Carrie Fisher's final performance and a definitive end for her character.
Rise of Skywalker will probably have a similar "appeal" due to it being Carrie Fisher's final performance and a definitive end for her character.
TLJ wasn't garbage. That opinion is not shared by the majority of movie goers. "Fans" on the internet argue over it.
TLJ was critically acclaimed and audiences enjoyed it overall.
Yeah definitely not betting on that lol. Never say never but.. that's out of the realm of logic
My guess would be some what above $200 mill opening weekend + $1.4-1.5 billion WW assuming the movie is decent.
Any competent director could've directed TFA and nothing would've changed box office wise.
The only real questionable thing is if moving the film slightly closer to Christmas might have any negative effect. TFA did gangbusters around December 18.......December 20 I think you might have less people showing up as they try to get last-minute holiday stuff done.
I guess it might help that all schools will probably be out by that point. Some part of Last Jedi's dip might have been that a lot of schools were probably still in session.
I guess it might help that all schools will probably be out by that point. Some part of Last Jedi's dip might have been that a lot of schools were probably still in session.
Star Wars is quite honestly a bit overrated box office wise when it does not have like a 12-16 year hype build up.
Empire and ROTJ got demolished by E.T.
Attack of the Clones got destroyed by Spider-Man and The Two Towers and Harry Potter.
Revenge of the Sith was beaten soundly by Pirates 2, Shrek 2, and Return of The King and completely destroyed by Avatar and The Dark Knight.
Last Jedi was easily bested by the Avengers Infinity Saga films and Jurassic World.
Empire and ROTJ got demolished by E.T.
Attack of the Clones got destroyed by Spider-Man and The Two Towers and Harry Potter.
Revenge of the Sith was beaten soundly by Pirates 2, Shrek 2, and Return of The King and completely destroyed by Avatar and The Dark Knight.
Last Jedi was easily bested by the Avengers Infinity Saga films and Jurassic World.
Not to mention the entire brand being irrelevant in Asia with the exception of Japan.
Even Matrix Revolutions probably would have done better if it hadn't gotten dumped in early November, and had a bit more time to let the stench of Reloaded wear off.
In retrospect I think even the studio knew Revolutions was a mega-dud and just wanted to quietly get it out of the way.
TLJ and Frozen are separated by less than 60M WW.
Not that much of a stretch to think Frozen 2 could come close or top TRoS.
Lol alright, any director would have achieved the greatest domestic box office film of all time and 2B, because SW right
Has nothing to do with JJ being pretty damn great at pleasing crowds and rebooting franchises in terms of BO success
I mean he has appeal in a sense, but JJ has none of the other top 10 or even 20 grossing films and his second Star Trek movie was a dissapointment. He's not exactly James Cameron.
Every Star Wars sequel released (aside from Solo) has made more money than Frozen. That bet seems like it would be pretty stacked in favor of SW.
Errr .. no?
Frozen made way more than Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith.
There's a reason why JJ was chosen to come back after Trevorrow bombed.
Otherwise, if it doesn't actually matter, why not just choose whatever "competent director"?
To reduce EP9 to "anybody competent director would have achieved those results" is absurd, full stop
TFA was a marketing gold mine, no one went to see this movie because of JJ fucking Abrams lmao
I mean his cheery style probably helps, I'm just saying he's not exactly the biggest box office draw. He's had one film top $400 million WW in his career other than The Force Awakens I believe. He's not exactly a Spielberg (prime) or Cameron or something like that.
That Infinity Saga, you mean Black Panther? Yeah a movie having stuff like "if you don't see it you're racist" "all black people must see it" and of course Avengers hype behind it, no way it could sell those numbers without these factors. While TLJ was on its own as a second entry.
If a movie's going to have a box office bump from an actor's passing (God that sounds morbid), I would assume TLJ would have benefitted instead. The Rise of Skywalker is coming 3 years after Carrie Fisher's passing.
TLJ was Carrie Fisher's final performance.
TROS is using old footage of her.
No I mean Infinity War and Endgame slapped The Last Jedi around box office wise easily.
Star Wars sequels get dunked on a lot, they're not the defacto box office champion Star Wars fans would like you to believe they are.
Revenge of the Sith and Attack of the Clones don't even make the top 5 WW box office for the 2000s which is a monumental disappointment.
Dude Avengers is like 10 fucking times bigger than Star Wars in the world, no SW movie can reach the Avengers popularity level in the world ever.
I never said people literally went because they knew JJ Abrams was directing. Disney/LF went to JJ because the was the best guy for the job. Why do you think he will have written and directed two out of three of the ST episodes (regardless of the drama with Trevorrow)?
The idea that just any whatever director would have waltzed in and achieved those numbers is absolutely disingenuous. SW was guaranteed a success of some kind, but not nearly 1B dom/2B WW.
I never said he's Cameron, I'm not even saying anything about the quality of his films. Just that he's a box office draw, and a massive one, as shown in 2015. The best example we have to use is literally within the trilogy that we're talking about. He knows how to crowd please. He knows how to sell Star Wars. He proved this with TFA.
Again, 2/3 ST films is not a coincidence, it's not like there's a shortage of directors to jump on fucking Star Wars lol
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Lots of movies beat Star Wars sequels all the time.
Revenge of the Sith barely beat Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen WW lol and was badly beaten by several others.
Last Jedi couldn't come close to Jurassic World and was basically tied by the crappy Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom sequel.
Star Wars is overrated box office wise when it doesn't have the luxury of the 10+ year wait which forces normal people to get off the couch and go "ok fine, I'll go see a Star War". They make good money sure, but there's an overrating of them as some kind of untouchable box office force, there's lots of contemporary comparables to every Star Wars sequel that's made a good deal more money.
The Force Awakens outgrossed the first two Avengers movies with ease. The problem is that the MCU grew like crazy afterwards while Star Wars declined.
Who thinks Black Panther when they think of Infinity Saga?
Are you saying part of its massive success is due to people being forced to watch it because they were afraid of being labelled a racist?
What % of the audience did that make?
The Force Awakens is an outlier because it had like 10+ years of pent up hype.
Look at every Star Wars film that doesn't have that ... they get beaten easily by a lot of comparables.
I'm not sure what sort of metric you mean by "Star Wars sequel" but (unadjusted for inflation obviously) Frozen has outgrossed every single Star Wars movie ever made except TFA and TLJ, with the latter only making $60 million more.
TROS is:
- The sequel to what might be the most controversially polarizing blockbuster film ever made
- Being released with moderate competition
- Has had a marketing and promotional campaign with mixed reception; there is a massive fog of (arguably manufactured) negativity around everything connected to this film
- Being released during a low point for the franchise's public perception
- Heavily dependant on how well it pleases fans; that is, fan reception and repeat viewing will decide if it makes $1.2 billion or $2.2 billion
- Basically dead on arrival in nearly every international territory outside the English-speaking world
Frozen 2 is:
- The long-awaited sequel to the most popular animated movie of the 21st century
- Being released with zero credible competition
- Has had a well-received marketing campaign that has attracted interest from a broad demographic (such as men) outside of its original viewership
- As a franchise, is still extremely popular and well-liked in the public eye; the brand has only grown since the original film's theatrical release
- Because kids have no taste, it will make a ton of money no matter what its actual quality and is not beholden to the whims of a devout fanbase
- Like most animated Disney films, extremely popular internationally and outside the English-speaking world
It could go either way, honestly. I'm inclined to give the edge to TROS but it's hard to say. TLJ was proof you could make a god bleed. Solo was proof you could kill one.
They all did remarkably well when you consider how poorly-received their predecessors were. If Fellowship of the Ring or Pirates were as bad as TPM/AOTC, those franchises would have been absolutely sunk.
I think Rogue One is actually what shows the strength of the brand -- it's just some weird offshoot movie that covers mostly-known territory, and it still made a billion dollars at the box office. I imagine it's probably the highest grossing "side-story" film ever made, and I think is the highest-grossing prequel ever made.