Fun fact: Teresa May's hold over her own constituency, Maidenhead, was challenged in the last election by a lot of usual oppositions... and the legendary Lord Buckethead.
This photo encapsulates British politics folks.
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BBC: Theresa May wins confidence vote 200 to 117
- Thread starter MassiveNights
- Start date
This photo encapsulates British politics folks.
The inmates have taken over the asylum. For all her faults at least May understood that a no-deal Brexit would be devastating to the UK economy. The hard Brexiters are so drunk on their ideology they've become fanatical in imposing their version of Brexit at any cost.
The best I can hope for is that if a hard Brexit PM is put in place either they will lose a VoNC or they won't have a majority in parliament to push a no-deal Brexit forward.
The best I can hope for is that if a hard Brexit PM is put in place either they will lose a VoNC or they won't have a majority in parliament to push a no-deal Brexit forward.
Fun fact: Teresa May's hold over her own constituency, Maidenhead, was challenged in the last election by a lot of usual oppositions... and the legendary Lord Buckethead.
Oh we have one of those!!! Say hello to Vermin Supreme!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermin_Supreme
It's not like impeachment; there's no sense of criminality or wrongdoing, for a start. You know how pirate crews used to elect their own captains? Then if things went really badly for long enough, someone would say, "hang on, I'm sick of getting my ass kicked for no booty, we need a new captain!" and if enough of the crew agree, they sling the old captain over the side, then elect a new one. Think of the pirates as the Tory party, and that's the process.
I'm not well versed on UK politics. Could someone give me a realistic up to date view on the chances of Brexit being cancelled as things currently stand? Are the chances still slim or have they significantly improved over the last few weeks and is it at all realistic yet?
It is.
Even if every Tory rebel against the deal voted for this, that's only approx 100 MPs.
Between this and an opposition motion of no confidence I think people don't understand that "Winning" the vote is going to undermine May instead of strengthen her.
If she scraped through, she has a party with at least 20% of her party who want her out and thus fit to rebel against her at any vote. As she doesn't have a majority to begin with, that's enough to end her power as PM.
Yes, she can continue in the job but she will have no control over her party, the parliament, or the legislature's agenda.
This will hasten her exit, winning the vote won't give her the year's grace people see in the rulebook.
OP
OP
Far too much ahead to make a prediction on that, as much as I'd like to.
True, but I bet if we dug deep enough into her comings and goings... She is a Tory after all...
OP
OP
I just looked at the betting odds for you.
Another EU referendum before 2020 is currently at Evens (as likely to happen as not)
UK to not leave the EU by 29 March 2019 is at 4/6 (odds on favourite)
UK Brexit date not before 2022 is at 2/1
If she wins this vote - then some rebels have already said they will back her. They will have to.
Doesn't mean they'll vote her deal through but the pressure on them to do so would be considerably increased from within their own party, knowing they've shot their bolt. I expect 60-80 to vote against her tonight. They should have waited till after the meaningful vote. Now they have shot their bolt too early and likely will in many cases be forced to back her deal. Their numbers just aren't nearly strong enough.
Brexit will only be cancelled as a result of a second referendum. It's the only way to get through all this mess. At this time there is no parliamentary route for any of the 3 options, No Deal, Brexit Deal or Remain. For any of those to actually make it through parliament we need a second referendum that will put the "will of the people" behind one of those options and then MPs will have no choice but to follow through on it.
The first referendum was us clicking the X in the top right corner. A second referendum is the box asking "Are you sure you want to quit? Yes/No/Cancel". We can't end this mess without that final choice.
Oh we have one of those!!! Say hello to Vermin Supreme!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermin_Supreme
buckethead wouldn't be able to do much as he'd just be an MP, but President Supreme could theoretically be a thing, right?
That's logical. May has a piece of paper that says what Brexit is. She has a policy. Labour doesn't, which is very sad considering they've had 2.5 years to come up with one. How can you be a credible opposition without a policy on the biggest issue in the last 50 years? A bunch of mealy-mouthed waffle that tries to avoid hurting the feelings of people who live in Burnley, doesn't make anyone want to vote Labour. Pick a lane already.
Pains me to say it, but Labour are in as much as a mess as the Tories. The idea they are the answer to anything right now is ludicrous. We need huge political reform and for the moderates on all sides to come together and form something credible that can take us forward.
I can see Corbyn waiting for the election to end. The Tories are in crisis right now. They've always courted right wing sentiments when it comes to Race and Multi-Culturalism. The EU has always been a bee in the bonnet of those members. The Brexit vote was an attempt by those that understood that element of the Party and the British people to seize power in the Party. It backfired though. It was never intended to win, just to weaken Cameron's positions for a new candidate to become PM. Instead it set us off towards a cliff.
The problem they had is that their party was split between these elements. May knew this and that's why she called for a Snap Election. She hoped by doing so she could win enough seats to push through whatever she needed to get Brexit done. However that backfired as well and the majority they had was cut down. The only way to still form a government for the Torries was deal with the devil. The DUP. £1 Billion in return for the government.
Then the negotiations started and the EU hit May where it hurts the most. The DUP aren't a large party, but they have the seats she needs to win a vote in Parliament. The deal, which I still think is the best one May could have gotten, gives Ireland more power in Northern Island. Something the DUP are extremely against. May however has no choice, time is against her and she has to provide the details to the deal to Parliament. The DUP naturally are furious, the Brexiteer faction are furious, Remain and the Opposition Party use this deal to savage her in Parliament. On top of that it comes out that Article 50 can be revoked without any consequence to the UK, her government is found in an unprecedented decision, to be in contempt, due to withholding legal information regarding the deal and been forced to give up the deal and go back to negotiations.
She's never been weaker. However if this wasn't the poisoned chalice when she became PM, it fucking well is now. The Brexiteers hate this deal. They hate it so much they'd rather leave with no deal. They've scrambled since November for the numbers to push a vote of No Confidence. If they have enough now, it's because those running the show think they have a chance to kick her out. If they do kick her out, we're going to get a General Election. There are too many MPs against a No Deal for them to have a majority. Ever poll since the deal has show Remain and Peoples Vote have a clear majority over Leave now. Remain alone have a majority. The Opposition will have the votes to call for another election.
What if a non-Brexiteer wins? Same problem. Any deal will get rejected. The DUP will never do it while Ireland get's more power over Northern Island. Removing that will cost the UK even more than it has done. Most likely the deal gets voted down, the government is forced to a Peoples Vote or Revoke Article 50.
What if May wins? Same problem as above. Unless she is willing to blindly walk off a cliff without a deal, she will never complete Brexit. She has staked everything on this deal now, the EU has the rope to hang her and they've just passed it to the Opposition.
Corbyn could make a move now, but why do that? If she wins, the no confidence vote and sees off the opposition then she is so much stronger. If he waits and what I've predicted comes to pass, the Tories hand the government over themselves. One thing is clear, we are in an unprecedented time of British politics. This shit is better than movies or tv at this point.
The problem they had is that their party was split between these elements. May knew this and that's why she called for a Snap Election. She hoped by doing so she could win enough seats to push through whatever she needed to get Brexit done. However that backfired as well and the majority they had was cut down. The only way to still form a government for the Torries was deal with the devil. The DUP. £1 Billion in return for the government.
Then the negotiations started and the EU hit May where it hurts the most. The DUP aren't a large party, but they have the seats she needs to win a vote in Parliament. The deal, which I still think is the best one May could have gotten, gives Ireland more power in Northern Island. Something the DUP are extremely against. May however has no choice, time is against her and she has to provide the details to the deal to Parliament. The DUP naturally are furious, the Brexiteer faction are furious, Remain and the Opposition Party use this deal to savage her in Parliament. On top of that it comes out that Article 50 can be revoked without any consequence to the UK, her government is found in an unprecedented decision, to be in contempt, due to withholding legal information regarding the deal and been forced to give up the deal and go back to negotiations.
She's never been weaker. However if this wasn't the poisoned chalice when she became PM, it fucking well is now. The Brexiteers hate this deal. They hate it so much they'd rather leave with no deal. They've scrambled since November for the numbers to push a vote of No Confidence. If they have enough now, it's because those running the show think they have a chance to kick her out. If they do kick her out, we're going to get a General Election. There are too many MPs against a No Deal for them to have a majority. Ever poll since the deal has show Remain and Peoples Vote have a clear majority over Leave now. Remain alone have a majority. The Opposition will have the votes to call for another election.
What if a non-Brexiteer wins? Same problem. Any deal will get rejected. The DUP will never do it while Ireland get's more power over Northern Island. Removing that will cost the UK even more than it has done. Most likely the deal gets voted down, the government is forced to a Peoples Vote or Revoke Article 50.
What if May wins? Same problem as above. Unless she is willing to blindly walk off a cliff without a deal, she will never complete Brexit. She has staked everything on this deal now, the EU has the rope to hang her and they've just passed it to the Opposition.
Corbyn could make a move now, but why do that? If she wins, the no confidence vote and sees off the opposition then she is so much stronger. If he waits and what I've predicted comes to pass, the Tories hand the government over themselves. One thing is clear, we are in an unprecedented time of British politics. This shit is better than movies or tv at this point.
He hasn't behaved any differently than the government, until you negotiate you come out with objectives and a very broad position.
Do you see a scenario where she keeps her job otherwise? I don't.
Plus, a second referendum with all three options on the ballot, done proportionally, might actually see her deal win.
No, I don't really see why she doesn't want to. I can see the downsides from her point of view, obviously, but they aren't remotely as great as the downsides of the alternatives. I think May would prefer almost anything to No Deal happening on her watch, to be honest. Perhaps I'm wrong about that, but as much as I dislike her, I really don't think she wants that to her name.
Anyone who gives you an answer has a 100 / (total potential outcomes) percentage of being right.
It's probably worth pointing out that bookies don't predict results - odds are a reflection of what punters think will happen rather than educated political analysts.
Techincally yes. If he was able to file all the correct paperwork, run as an independent and get all of the votes he needed then he could be President unless I am missing some loophole.
It is far from none. It isn't a high chance but the odds of A50 being pushed back increase daily.
Scenario - May wins the vote tonight comfortably as is widely expected.
She brings her deal to parliament in early January. It is rejected by about 40 votes after many previous Tory rebels back it. She then proceeds to push back A50 to allow for more time to decide the next move. The next move is a general election. Which yields a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party but short by about 30 seats. She forms a weird coalition with the Lib Dems/DUP and agrees to withdraw A50 in lieu of a further referendum....
It isn't impossible.
I think she wins this vote but I agree with others who have said that it doesn't mean she is secure necessarily. I think you has to win be a clear margin; if it's close then this won't go away in my opinion.
I'm also not convinced Labour would win a general election as there seems to be unsupported, negative opinions against them and the perception the party doesn't know what it's doing - to say nothing of the chaos that's unfolding right in front of us.
I'm also not convinced Labour would win a general election as there seems to be unsupported, negative opinions against them and the perception the party doesn't know what it's doing - to say nothing of the chaos that's unfolding right in front of us.
OP
OP
True, I said in a previous post it was impossible to predict right now, it's just a rough indication of what people are thinking.
I agree - but she can push back Article 50 to avoid a no deal. The EU also want to avoid it. She isn't saying that currently because it devalues the pressure she is trying to put on MPs to back her deal.
But a second referendum is very difficult for her. I think there might be a part of her that would love it as a get out of jail card - BUT extraordinary things will have to happen for her to ask for one. Her position on it has been very clear - so to change track would be dangerous. And for her ongoing political career the most likely outcome of a 2nd referendum is disaster for her.
No deal has way more of a chance than another referendum, and even if one did get called, the political weariness of 2.5 years of this shit will have taken it's toll on the public.
Because it's true? Jeremy trying to hide quietly in the corner while all this is happening, is not making Labour look like a credible alternative government. He didn't even ask a question about Brexit at the last PMQs. Brexit is the nettle that has to be grasped and he is not willing to do it. He's hoping to get into power just by being the less hated of two options, that isn't going to work when the country is so divided.
He thinks he's being politically smart by letting the Tories dominate the discussion but there is a big danger that Labour simply becomes irrelevant. It's quite extraordinary that Labour still can't get in front of the Tories in GE polling.
Have the Tories lost their collective minds? Another leadership challenge? Are they serious with this shit?
I wish I was healthy because I would be getting out of this Country, the self indulgence of our MP's is disgusting and laid bare to witness. David Cameron should be stripped of all his ex-pm privileges not only has he divided the Country but quite possibly set the course for the breaking up of the U.K, sick man of Europe to the laughing stock of Europe.
Our only hope is that Parliament crumbles and passes it back to the people.
I wish I was healthy because I would be getting out of this Country, the self indulgence of our MP's is disgusting and laid bare to witness. David Cameron should be stripped of all his ex-pm privileges not only has he divided the Country but quite possibly set the course for the breaking up of the U.K, sick man of Europe to the laughing stock of Europe.
Our only hope is that Parliament crumbles and passes it back to the people.
I can't stand Corbyn but I don't think he needs to do anything. The Tories are spontaneously combusting in front of him. The public are sick of Brexit already, so a leadership contest will be their death knell Because it will be seen as putting the party ahead of the public. Talk about right place, right time, Corbyn can barely believe how lucky he is.
The problem for Corbyn is that political expediency is killing him as a leader in the eyes of the public.
The Corbyn supporting faction back his tactics but the general public actually support May more than Corbyn because she's seen as taking the hard decisions while he does nothing.
The ironic thing is that if May wins this vote, but then loses a commons confidence vote, the resulting general election may well go to the Tories because Corbyn left it so long that the public blame his indecision for the resulting chaos.
As the polls are literally coming up with Tory/Labour separated by low single digit swings, a few percentage of people makes a huge difference and he's in danger of losing support of swing voters.
If anything I can see another hung parliament with a few seats going to Labour but not actually helping any Brexit resolution whatsoever.
Honestly, we're just fucked right now.
OP
OP
I don't understand the criticism of the PMQs thing, there has been plenty of Commons time devoted to Brexit where he gets free reign to challenge May and make speeches against it, and he has done on multiple occasions over the last month.
The running of the country needs to go on, people are suffering, I admire that he still gives those people a voice in the run of the mill parliament processes. It's not sexy and doesn't make headlines, but it's the right thing to do. PMQs is an important chance to challenge the govt on their sins at home, rather than focusing everything on Brexit.
Forget Brexit, it's the cheek to bring up Labour chaos after the last couple of years of complete bollocks, it's one rule for the tories and one for everyone else stuff.
The whole lot of them are self serving and they barely conceal it. You've had Labour MPs on TV calling for a fucking GE! If that doesn't tell you all you need to know about our politiicians priorities, nothing will.
I have always voted for Labour and voted for Corbyn in the leadership elections but I have no time for him now. He has done absolutely nothing since the General Election, he isnt offering any kind of opposition or leadership, he wants things to fall into his lap.
Why?
Exit the political bubble and look at the polls.
People who don't even support May's deal give her credit for at least getting something, even though it's bad.
Corbyn has went negative on his leadership polling since the 2017 vote and May although in the negative still gets higher support.
In fact YouGov has a poll today showing that so far, more people want her to stay than go. It's close but shows that People are almost split down the middle.
Corbyn isn't helping himself here in my honest opinion and isn't winning over people who already support him to the last.
There isn't huge public support for more political turbulence. Labour trying to force a GE is seen as political gamesplaying.
The issues with Corbyn is that a) he's seen as indecisive and weak b) he's seen as someone unable or unwilling to tackle racism in his party and c) he's seen as a throwback to radical socialism - something the country rejected in 1979.
It is an image problem. May is dreadful. I think she's shot her bolt with the public now. But Corbyn is not seen by a silent majority as a credible alternative. Frankly as much as I want to argue he is - I cannot.
I believe he's currently frozen by fear. He knows whenever the next general election is, it's get labour into power or bust. Another 'good showing' type result won't be enough.
And he knows, or must know, deep down, that he's unelectable and the Labour party in its current form is unelectable.
They have lots of very reasonable ideas - but their frontbench is weak, their presentation appalling and they refuse to do basics like get the press onside and work in conventional ways that allow them to present their case more effectively. There is no mainstream media outlet fully supportive of Labour currently - they just bury their heads and pretend they can win an election via the grass-roots. They learned nothing from Blair - you might not like his politics but he showed clearly, how Labour can win elections. Corbyn is doing the absolute opposite.
I think one positive of if a general election was forced and he lost again, it would have to be the end of him. Labour deserves someone better.