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Sobriquet

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
9,825
Wilmington, NC
No, you didn't, because you're not following what my point is. More people came from Senate->President than House->President. People who go into the House use it as a stepping stone.
Let's revisit where we started:
No, it's really not, which is why barely any president comes from the House.
More presidents have come from the house than the senate
I get the point you're making; I'm not an idiot. But again, more presidents have come from the house than the senate. That statement is all I'm taking issue with.

More sitting senators have become president, yes. There are three.
 

Ryuelli

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,209
Best candidate so far, I love this man.

He'll have my support in the primaries and than whoever makes it past that will have my support on election day.
 

Tobor

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,402
Richmond, VA
And he decided to go from the legislature to the Senate, not the House, because the Senate is viewed as a superior stepping stone to the presidency with more important responsibilities, and one Senator is more important than one congressperson. Trump was a businessman, and those people typically make waves even if they don't win (Steve Forbes, Ross Perot).

We're arguing what experience actually is, not if he's a better choice than Trump. The House and Senate aren't the same, which is why we barely elect people from there and haven't gone higher.

How many "businessmen" with no political experience were ever elected before Trump? If the traditional path for a candidate is as important as you are trying to make it out to be, he wouldn't have sniffed the nomination let alone won.

My point is that arguing over past experience in 2019 as some kind of arbiter of a candidate's chances is ridiculous at best.

If anything, the reverse is now true, as years of being a Senator and Secretary of State did nothing for Clinton but build up a huge list of attack material for the opposition.
 

LinktothePastGOAT

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,879
What would you rather have? Harris or Booker as VP? Neither brings the clout that Bernie does, and Beto has many things going for him that make him preferable over Harris and Booker.

Warren would be a great VP pick, better than Bernie but her public image isn't one that has successfully excited large masses.

Uhh give me Kamala over Bernie. Give me Warren over Bernie.
 

Cymbal Head

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,370
He did voice support for M4A, Green New Deal, and increasing the tax rate on the rich in the Vanity Fair pre-announcement interview yesterday.

If the excerpts posted in this thread are accurate, I'm seeing a lot of vagueness and weasel words:

On healthcare, he wants to "eventually make 'health care for all' a reality" -- could mean M4A, or it could mean any number of other plans

On taxes, he goes right to this: "you're going to have to ask everyone to sacrifice" and this "if there's a better way to get there, I'm open to it."

On the green new deal, he likes "the idea" because "it captures your imagination."

These don't look like particularly strong endorsements, especially given the rest of the primary field so far.
 

Deleted member 4346

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,976
This is a mistake. He should have run for Cornyn's Senate seat rather than president. He doesn't bring anything to the table that we already don't have in the race. The idea that Beto is some kind of Obama-like figure is insulting. Obama, despite his flaws on policy, was the hope and dreams of millions of oppressed black Americans. Beto... isn't anything like that. He's not nearly as good a speaker, has nowhere near the charisma, doesn't have Obama's diverse background or inspiring life story.

It's pure-fire white privilege in action.


Article is on-point.
 

Hirok2099

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
1,399
It is funny how many of the "O'rouke ....." statements could be replaced with Obama to describe him in 2007 as well.
Obama ran heavily on Medicare for all His actual implementation of it failed but it was the thing he promised and the main reason people voted for him.
He also ran heavily on ending the war in the middle east.
 

Ryuelli

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,209
What?
donald-trump.jpg
yeah I'm gonna have to disagree on that

I don't disagree with him. Trump is a monster, but when charisma is defined as

"1. compelling attractiveness or charm that can inspire devotion in others."
synonyms:charm, presence, aura, personality, force of personality, strength of character, individuality

than I don't think there's any argument that Trump is charismatic to quite a few people, especially since he essentially has a cult that worships every little thing he does.
 

MrCheezball

Banned
Aug 3, 2018
1,376
He is going to play well is rust belt, middle america, middle class, suburbs and upper middle class. Say what you will, but running on a platform of free stuff and socialism will get you nowhere in those parts.
 

Deleted member 29676

User Requested Account Closure
Banned
Nov 1, 2017
1,804
Obama ran heavily on Medicare for all His actual implementation of it failed but it was the thing he promised and the main reason people voted for him.
He also ran heavily on ending the war in the middle east.

I was more thinking of Obama's announcement when there were endless thinkpieces lamenting about how "a community organizer and one term senator" who had nothing to his name but " a strong speech the DNC convention" was running against Clinton.

Beto has a lot wrong as a candidate but his lack of legislative success isn't really a factor. The winner of the primary and general election is going to be the person who can paint a vision of america that resonates with voters and inspire people the most .

The US presidential race is a persuasion game and this will be a test to see if the american public can be counter conditioned and persuaded to give socialist policies a try or if they'd rather stick with a center left candidate like in the past.
 

Ryuelli

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,209
Wait you think that the reason voter turnout increased was Beto? do you have any proof of this?

The surge in turnout was largely due to Dem. Beto O'Rourke's "spirited, though ultimately futile" campaign to become the next U.S. Senator from Texas, said Joshua Blank, manager of polling and research at UT's Texas Politics Project.
"Unlike most Texas elections in which the outcome is predetermined in favor of Republican candidates, this time the outcome was far less certain, and more people took the opportunity to vote," Blank said in an email.


http://www.dailytexanonline.com/2018/11/07/voter-turnout-soars-in-2018-texas-midterm-election
 
OP
OP
ThisThingIsUseful
Oct 31, 2017
12,068
Let's revisit where we started:

I get the point you're making; I'm not an idiot. But again, more presidents have come from the house than the senate. That statement is all I'm taking issue with.

More sitting senators have become president, yes. There are three.

If you understand my point, then why argue just to argue?

No.

Barely anyone came from the House to the presidency. This sounds like you're the victim of a quick Google search because the people who came from the House used it as a stepping stone for Senator/Governor. No party puts their strongest guy in a House race; it's the Senate/Governor's Mansion. Why do you think Hillary didn't run for a House seat in New York in 2000? Or that Obama went straight to the Senate? It means more. And your position is more important as there are fewer of you, not to mention the different rules for the Senate.

Garfield was the only one who did House->Presidency IIRC.

This doesn't even go into the fact that people who run generally are Senators/Governors (Romney, McCain, Gore before he was VP, Dukakis, Mondale, Humphrey, etc.). The House is a different experience. People from the House aren't running for president. Senators and governors are, and people will either skip the House (as Harris did, and Booker, and Obama, and Hillary, and Warren) or go from the House to a higher office.

How many "businessmen" with no political experience were ever elected before Trump? If the traditional path for a candidate is as important as you are trying to make it out to be, he wouldn't have sniffed the nomination let alone won.

My point is that arguing over past experience in 2019 as some kind of arbiter of a candidate's chances is ridiculous at best.

If anything, the reverse is now true, as years of being a Senator and Secretary of State did nothing for Clinton but build up a huge list of attack material for the opposition.

I don't think you're following me at all. If someone wants to argue that the House is the same as the Senate, I will take issue because that's not true. If you want to argue that House members made more ripples running in recent presidential elections compared to businessmen, I'll take issue because that's not true. And if you want to argue that Beto is the best choice, I'll likely take issue because he did less in the House than Obama did in the Senate.

Partly because, again, he was using it as a stepping stone to get into the Senate. And partly because the Senate is more important.

Many of Clinton's positions and lack of foresight allowed for plenty of attack material. The fact that Trump was using her vote for Iraq against her -- as the Republican candidate -- was stunning. No argument about Benghazi being a dishonest investigation or the emails being overblown (even though her response to the initial story in 2015 sucked and she just shouldn't have done it anyway).
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,086
So do we have a single policy from this guy other than "I'm not Trump"?

He is going to play well is rust belt, middle america, middle class, suburbs and upper middle class. Say what you will, but running on a platform of free stuff and socialism will get you nowhere in those parts.
You keep using those buzzwords like you know what they mean.

Tulsi is a racist and a homophobe. She is not going to be on the ticket lol.
I hear this point a good bit, and honestly I don't understand. The homophobic part was a relic of her past that's she's since regretted and evolved on (as can be seen by her 100% pro-LGBT voting record, being on the LGBT Equality Causus, and endorsement by the Human Rights Campaign). As for the racist part, I'm kinda lost there. Is it because of the Hindu Nationalist thing? If so, can somebody explain that to me? I'm just not knowledgeable on the subject.
 

base_two

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,810
And he decided to go from the legislature to the Senate, not the House, because the Senate is viewed as a superior stepping stone to the presidency with more important responsibilities, and one Senator is more important than one congressperson. Trump was a businessman, and those people typically make waves even if they don't win (Steve Forbes, Ross Perot).

We're arguing what experience actually is, not if he's a better choice than Trump. The House and Senate aren't the same, which is why we barely elect people from there and haven't gone higher.

It doesn't fucking matter though. When Trump was elected, that pretty much threw all of these "norms" out of the window. You can't really have a conversation about experience without acknowledging that 2016 took place. There have been plenty of other business minded men and women who have absolutely failed out the gate. That isn't a valid reason, in my opinion.
 

Iloelemen

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,323
I'm sorry but meh.....

Beto is like a throwback candidate to the 90s/2000s. He "speaks well", he is "very electable", he knows that it's "not about having an ideaology cause we're past that", he's "nuanced", he's the "adult in the room". meh....

I guess he's younger than the others butttttt, Kamala, Warren, Sanders, Pete, Yang; all of them are in touch with the 2010s /2020s to varying degrees. Beto is not there yet. He's no Biden at least, but yup....

I guess if you're an upper-class /upper-class-feeling white man stuck in the late 90s/ 2000s, then he might be the candidate for you.....
 

Cipherr

Member
Oct 26, 2017
13,420
Good, I like the guy. And I enjoy the nervous shit flinging at him too. Hes fucking great. Cant wait.
 

Sleve McDichael

Avenger
Oct 28, 2017
1,758
Kamala Harris or Andrew Yang would still be my pick for President of all the candidates, but Beto might be my preferred choice for the nomination.
More than anything, I just want someone who can beat Trump. I think Beto or Biden gives us the best chance to do that.
 
Jan 15, 2019
4,393
He is going to play well is rust belt, middle america, middle class, suburbs and upper middle class. Say what you will, but running on a platform of free stuff and socialism will get you nowhere in those parts.
delmaster2k.png



This is the right move for Robert. Unsurprising. Biden, Gillum, Gillibrand, Abrams making it official next.
I wouldn't be surprised if Gillibrand shuts it down at the exploratory committee phase, honestly. She's a sitting senator polling at 0-1%.
 

Tobor

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,402
Richmond, VA
If you understand my point, then why argue just to argue?



This doesn't even go into the fact that people who run generally are Senators/Governors (Romney, McCain, Gore before he was VP, Dukakis, Mondale, Humphrey, etc.). The House is a different experience. People from the House aren't running for president. Senators and governors are, and people will either skip the House (as Harris did, and Booker, and Obama, and Hillary, and Warren) or go from the House to a higher office.



I don't think you're following me at all. If someone wants to argue that the House is the same as the Senate, I will take issue because that's not true. If you want to argue that House members made more ripples running in recent presidential elections compared to businessmen, I'll take issue because that's not true. And if you want to argue that Beto is the best choice, I'll likely take issue because he did less in the House than Obama did in the Senate.

Partly because, again, he was using it as a stepping stone to get into the Senate. And partly because the Senate is more important.

Many of Clinton's positions and lack of foresight allowed for plenty of attack material. The fact that Trump was using her vote for Iraq against her -- as the Republican candidate -- was stunning. No argument about Benghazi being a dishonest investigation or the emails being overblown (even though her response to the initial story in 2015 sucked and she just shouldn't have done it anyway).

My argument is that debating what type of prior political experience is preferred or a predictor of success in 2019 is foolhardy.

It's also naive to try to assume results based on previous precedents. We are in an era where precedents and past predictors are increasingly challenged and meaningless.
 
OP
OP
ThisThingIsUseful
Oct 31, 2017
12,068
It doesn't fucking matter though. When Trump was elected, that pretty much threw all of these "norms" out of the window. You can't really have a conversation about experience without acknowledging that 2016 took place. There have been plenty of other business minded men and women who have absolutely failed out the gate. That isn't a valid reason, in my opinion.

It does matter because the experience is different, which is what we're talking about. House experience isn't the same as Senate experience, not to mention Beto doesn't really have an impressive background. Obama started working with Senators on nuclear proliferation right away.

And we'll probably have to wait 20 years to see if everything's "thrown out the window." Obama being elected didn't mean the next president would be another gender/race shattering candidate. And the way Washington operates didn't change.
 

mrmojo228

Member
Dec 3, 2018
167
I don't understand the "inexperience" talk. He has more time in the US congress than any president since Gerald Ford.
 

AtmaPhoenix

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,001
The Internet
I, for some reason, have a weird dislike for O'Rourke. I don't want him as the Democratic candidate. I was fine with him beating Ted Cruz - but he didn't and that's a huge mark against him.

To me he just seems like Obama 2.0, and I mean that in all the negative ways. Obama was a great president, but his appeal to the center and not being aggressive against the Republican party was why we ended up where we are today. Beto as president would be more centrism and compromise while Republicans walked over him.

I don't have confidence he has the drive to enact actual change, and we need that in our next Democrat president. Status quo is not acceptable anymore.
 

Hirok2099

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
1,399
The surge in turnout was largely due to Dem. Beto O'Rourke's "spirited, though ultimately futile" campaign to become the next U.S. Senator from Texas, said Joshua Blank, manager of polling and research at UT's Texas Politics Project.
"Unlike most Texas elections in which the outcome is predetermined in favor of Republican candidates, this time the outcome was far less certain, and more people took the opportunity to vote," Blank said in an email.


http://www.dailytexanonline.com/2018/11/07/voter-turnout-soars-in-2018-texas-midterm-election
It looks more like a comment to me than any substantial proof. But hey, if I'm wrong and Beto really is the candidate to energize the Democratic party I'm sure he'll have no trouble in the primary.
On the other hand this quote from one of his voters.
"There was so much on the line in this election," said Tucker, a communication and leadership sophomore. "This was America's first real chance to respond to the Trump presidency and how the 2016 election turned out, and I wanted to make sure my voice was heard."

It really says to me that it was not so much that Beto's "Overwhelming charisma" moved him but rather he was the one candidate available when he felt the need to respond to Trump's presidency.
Beto is not necessarily a bad candidate he is just nowhere near the top and I fell like he won't be until he picks a policy to fight for. I want to know what reason he has for trying to become president other than people telling him that he has a chance.
 

Ryuelli

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,209
Still don't see what the fuss is about. Didn't this guy not beat Ted Cruz? If anything, I should be mad at him.

Ted Cruz is just as appealing to Texans as he is unappealing. His approval rating is sitting at around 40%, roughly the same number as the people who disapprove of him.

Beto made significant strides in Texas, without him getting democrats to show up and vote there's virtually no chance Lizzie Fletcher (a district that hadn't elected a democrat to congress since 1967) or Collin Allred (a district that hadn't elected a democrat to congress since it was created in 2003) would be sitting in congress right now. There's little chance these 17 judges would have won all their races. More importantly, he started a grassroots campaign by the likes of which hasn't been seen in this state in years, he's shown, sure, maybe we didn't win this time - but 3% is within striking distance, especially compared to the 16% Cruz won by in his previous race. Continue showing up (and next time bring more friends), and we can do this. Demographics are on his side.

It's blatantly false to say Beto couldn't get people to show up.

image.png

https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...nalysis/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6dcb2e36eebf
 

Haubergeon

Member
Jan 22, 2019
2,269
The news on climate change has become so increasingly horrifying to think of the long-term details of that it practically resembles what is a slow-moving extinction level event. I don't have time for a candidate more obsessed with optics and aesthetics or whatever. I'm willing to support Beto if he states clearly and succinctly that he supports single-payer healthcare, unparalleled levels of public investment in green infrastructure, etc, but he has a middling centrist legislative history, not to mention he's from Texas so my expectation of him as someone who can stand up to oil companies is already incredibly low.

He's a candidate for people that desperately want another liberal super-hero candidate that can let them sleep easily at night and forget all about politics for 4 more years just like Obama. This has been tried and failed, and we don't have the time to try and fail at it again this time. I could be wrong, though, and I certainly hope I am.
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,365
Dude would've been much more useful as a VP, which might be the point of this whole thing.

I couldn't see Beto lasting on a debate stage with Trump at this point.
Beto and Trump on stage at the same time would be completely laughable. Trump standing next to a young, cool hip type guy? That's death for him.
 
OP
OP
ThisThingIsUseful
Oct 31, 2017
12,068
My argument is that debating what type of prior political experience is preferred or a predictor of success in 2019 is foolhardy.

It's also naive to try to assume results based on previous precedents. We are in an era where precedents and past predictors are increasingly challenged and meaningless.

Congress still served as a check on Trump despite minority rule. The opposition party still made big gains in the midterms. And the opposition party winning after the party in the WH served a two year term still happened. The fact that Trump is a baby who tweet storms hasn't fundamentally changed how Washington operates. It's still a partisan cesspool where the ruling party is afraid to challenge their party's president, which isn't new for Republicans.

But that's neither here nor there; the point, as I keep stating, is that House experience is significantly different than Senate experience. I haven't said anything about Beto's odds of winning. If you're going to argue that Beto has more experience than Obama or that both experiences are the same, you're going to get pushback. And I made a post earlier in the thread why I'm not as impressed with Beto as I was with Obama in 2007/2008 which goes past the experience talk anyway.
 

Brinbe

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
58,032
Terana
Will be interesting to see how Beto adapts to a primary campaign. I can see him camping out in Iowa and winning them over.

Just waiting on Biden now.
 

base_two

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,810
The news on climate change has become so increasingly horrifying to think of the long-term details of that it practically resembles what is a slow-moving extinction level event. I don't have time for a candidate more obsessed with optics and aesthetics or whatever. I'm willing to support Beto if he states clearly and succinctly that he supports single-payer healthcare, unparalleled levels of public investment in green infrastructure, etc, but he has a middling centrist legislative history, not to mention he's from Texas so my expectation of him as someone who can stand up to oil companies is already incredibly low.

He's a candidate for people that desperately want another liberal super-hero candidate that can let them sleep easily at night and forget all about politics for 4 more years just like Obama. This has been tried and failed, and we don't have the time to try and fail at it again this time. I could be wrong, though, and I certainly hope I am.

I get it, but we really don't have time for another 4 years of Trump. There's no one in the race right now that's more progressive than Beto that I think has a chance at actually winning the general election. Progressive purity tests is just something the democratic party cannot afford to do this time.
 
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