BRAZILIAN GENERAL ELECTION 2018 OT
When? October 7 (First Round); October 28 (Second Round)
For which charges? President, National Congress, State Governors and State Assembly.
Can the Fascist win? Yes
Context
The 2014 Brazilian Presidential Election was the most fierce in history, with the incumbent Dilma Rousseff of the Worker's Party (PT) defeating Aécio Neves of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) by a narrow margin. In 2014, the country was crossing a economic recession, and the Operation Car Wash beginning to reveal a great scheme of corruption inside the giant state oil company Petrobras. After the re-election, Dilma broke many of its campaign promises, by applying austerity measures aimed at restoring economic growth and reducing the fiscal deficit of government accounts, that failed to achieve the desired results. Meanwhile, the Operation Car Wash revealed the biggest corruption scheme in Brazilian history, with values of financial movements estimated at R$ 8 trillion (U$ 2.05 trillion) implying many people of nearly all Brazilian political parties in the Legislative and Executive, including key-people in the government, and severely damaging the image of the Worker's Party. Widespread protests against the government occurred, supported and encouraged by employers syndicates, conservative social movements and opposition parties (which would later be affected by Car Wash). In 2016, Rousseff was impeached with the justification of having broken budgetary laws. The Impeachment was launched by the Chamber of Deputies President Eduardo Cunha (PMDB), after PT deputies voted against him in a corruption case. The removal of the President was supported by many former allied parties, including PMDB, the party of vice president Michel Temer. With Temer in the presidency the austerity measures were deepened, with a law that freezes investment in healthcare and education for the next 20 years, and the Legislative approved controversial laws like a withdraw of labour rights and a reform in the public High school system. In 2017, Temer was recorded in a private conversation, in which he discusses ways to kept Eduardo Cunha (arrested at the time for corruption) silent. Allies in the National Congress prevented the president from being investigated for obstruction of justice. In 2018 Lula (PT), a popular ex-president and leader in opinion polls for the upcoming election, was arrested for money laundering and corruption , in a process that his allies and some jurists consider illegal. Brazil reach the the most unpredictable election in history with a population in discredit for the politicians and institutions, with 13 million unemployed, 60,000 murders per year, and the most unpopular president in history, in a scenario that anything can happen. Oh and Aécio, the guy that almost won in 2014, was recorded asking for a tip of R$ 2 million and now is trying to gain a seat in the Congress to escape the police investigation.
Presidential Election
The President and the Vice President of Brazil are elected using the two-round system. Citizens may field their candidacies for the presidency, and participate in the general elections, which are held on the first Sunday in October (in this instance, 7 October 2018). If the most-voted candidate takes more than 50% of the overall vote, he or she is declared elected. If the 50% threshold is not met by any candidate, a second round of voting is held on the last Sunday in October (in this instance, 28 October 2018). In the second round, only the two most-voted candidates from the first round may participate. The winner of the second round is elected President of Brazil. The President selects his/her Vice President.
CIRO GOMES (Democratic Labour Party-PDT)
Vice: Katia Chainsaw (PDT)
Supported by: Forward
Qualifications and Experience: Law Graduate (UFC), Visiting Scholar (Harvard Law School), Governor of Ceará (1991-1994), Minister of Finance (1994-1995), Minister of National Integration (2003-2006), Federal Deputy for Ceará (2007-2011).
Biography: The former governor of Ceará runs for president for the third time, having been defeated in 1998 and 2002. Former minister of Lula, Ciro tries to build itself as a centre-left alternative, with a programme focusing in the development of the national industry and resumption of works stopped during the economic crisis as a way to combat unemployment. Ciro is known for his explosive temperament and arrogance. His vice, Kátia Abreu, won the Golden Chainsaw Award offered by Greenpeace in 2011 for contributing to deforestation in the Amazon. Gomes polls high in his home state and northeast.
Proposals: Renegotiation of debts of 63 million defaulters, create a value added tax, create 2 million jobs on the first year of government, revoke the labour reform, revoke the sale of Embraer to Boening, repurchase oil fields sold abroad, create full-time vocational schools, create day care centers.
Accusations and Prosecutions: Accounts for 70 lawsuits for moral damages and 7 criminal complaints for slander, defamation and injury.
FERNANDO HADDAD (Worker's Party –PT)
Vice: Manuela D'ávila (Communist Party of Brazil – PcdoB)
Supported by: Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), Republican Party of The Social Order (PROS), Worker's Struggle Party (PCO-Informal Support)
Q&E: Law Graduate, Master's Degree in Economics, Doctorate in Philosophy (USP); Minister of Education (2005- 2012); Mayor of São Paulo (2013-2017)
Bio: After Lula was banned from running again for presidency because of his conviction, PT indicated the former Mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad as their substitute. The first indie mayor of Brazil (critical success, public failure), Haddad runs with a message of return to the good times of Lula, when the country reached strong economic growth and poverty reduction
through government investment in social programs. When was Minister of Education, Haddad oversaw the unification of college entrance exams and a funding program for students in private colleges. PT won every presidential election since 2002, boosted by Lula popularity, but the party is accused of siding with conservative parties to ensure governability. PT image was severely damaged by the corruption scandals that have hit their leaders, but the party still keeps a loyal electorate, especially among the poorest population and has in the northeast their stronghold.
Proposals: Revoke Temer Reforms; expand enrollment in higher education; create a national plan to reduce homicides; criminalize homophobia; boosting affirmative action in public services; resume paralyzed works, specially the My House, My Life program; tax dividends and large fortunes, resume integration policies in Latin America, write a new constitution.
A&P: Accused of using illegal money to fund his mayoral campaign (still in process).
GERALDO ALCKMIN (Brazilian Social Democracy Party – PSDB)
Vice: Ana Amélia (Progressits – PP)
Supported by: Democrats (DEM); Progressists (PP); Party of the Republic (PR); Brazilian Republican Party (PRB); Solidarity (SD); Brazilian Labour Party (PTB); Social Democratic Party (PSD); Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Q&E: Medic (UNITAU); Governor of São Paulo (2001-2006, 2011-2018), Federal Deputy for São Paulo (1987-1994)
Bio: After the humiliating defeat suffered in 2006, Alckmin runs for presidency again with a liberal, pro-business platform. His campaign is focused in a defense of the reforms applied by Michel Temer and and the need to reduce the country's bureaucracy. Alckmin allied himself with a group of parties known as "Big Centre" (little, pragmatic parties whose only ideology is align with the team that's winning), that assured him which secured the most media time and more resources. The Alckmin Government in São Paulo target of numerous suspicions of corruption, overbilling and the formation of cartels. Historically, PSDB's base of support is the middle and rich classes, especially in the south and southeast, but in this election his electorate migrated to Jair Bolsonaro.
Proposals: increase vacancies in day care centers, reopen 30,000 closed beds in the country, create a border police, reduce the number of homicides to 20 / 100,000; build 3 million homes, privatize state-owned enterprises, create a value-added tax, pension reform.
A&P: accused of receiving R$ 10 million for election campaign (still in process)
JAIR BOLSONARO (Social Liberal Party –PSL)
Vice: General Mourão (Brazilian Labour Renew Party- PRTB)
Q&E: Army Captain (until 1988); Alderman from Rio de Janeiro (1989-1991); Federal deputy from Rio de Janeiro (since 1991).
Bio: Following the major global trend, the brazilian far-right presents their candidate for dictator. A federal deputy since 1991, Bolsonaro rose to fame for his comments attacking homosexuals, woman, blacks, indigenous, leftists, poor people and the Brazilian democratic system, and also for his firm stance against crime and corruption . He is also known for his support for the Brazilian Military Dictatorship (1964-1985). Bolsonaro and his vice said they could take various authoritarian measures if they win the election. Bolsonaro also said he will not accept the result if he does not win. Since the beginning of the campaign, Bolsonaro supporters attacked many political opponents using violence. In September, he was stabbed by a fanatical in a rally, boosting his support. The candidate polls high among the rich and young voters, and, since the beginning of the election, a fake news campaign boosted by WhattsApp made his support grown among the religious electorate .
Proposals: Stop "Marxist indoctrination and gender ideology" in schools, reduce the vacancies reserved for racial quotas, to increase the number of military schools, abolish the statute of disarmament, voluntary chemical castration for rapists, exclude unlawfulness for police officers on duty, create a new green and yellow labor portfolio (with less labor rights) , indicate at least 5 generals for ministries, leave the Paris agreement, leave the UN human rights committee.
A&P: Countless lawsuits for moral damages. Accused of racism (acquitted by the Supreme Court).Recently was revealed by Veja Magazine that, in the divorce proceedings, Bolsonaro's ex-wife accused him of steal a bank safe belonging to the couple and and hide assets in his statement of property.
MARINA SILVA (Sustainability Network – REDE)
Vice: Eduardo Jorge (Green Party - PV)
Q&E: History graduate (UFAC), specialized in psychoanalysis and psychopedagogy, Senator for Acre (1995-2011), Ministry of the environment (2003-2008).
Bio: Disputing the presidency for the third time, Marina tries to build herself as a centrist and environmentalist option escaping the polarization present in the country today. Her platform focuses on sustainable development, civil liberties and reducing inequalities. Marina is strongly criticized for her lack of position on key issues, for appearing only in the election period, and for the influence of her religion (Evangelical Christian) on her decisions. In the beginning of the campaign, Marina polled high among woman, but her support sank since then.
Proposals: financial deposits for students as a way to combat school dropout, plebiscite on drug decriminalization, prepare a national public security plan, universal basic sanitation, plebiscite on abortion, simplify taxes, review tax waivers, review labour law reform, install 1.5 million small and medium-sized photovoltaic solar roofs by 2022.
A&P: none
Other candidates include: Minister of Economy Henrique Meirelles (PMDB); Senator for Paraná Álvaro Dias (PODEMOS); Homeless Workers Movement coodinator Guilherme Boulos (PSOL); liberal banker João Amoedo (NOVO); EY-EY-EY mael (DC); unionist Vera Lúcia (PSTU); Federal Deputy Cabo Daciolo (PATRIOTA); and philosopher João Goulart Filho (PPL)
Congressional Elections
OPINION POLLS
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