Before everybody loses their minds, Bolton may be aching for a war (Trump, not so much, it's been reported that Bolton is indeed profoundly frustrated by Trump's refusal) but there are other actors interested in a war:
- Saudi Arabia wants Iran out of the maps and has been shown to be ruthless in that regard
- Iran is not a normal state. It has a bicefalous government and a secret service that essentially acts as a state within a state. The civil government is usually pushed around by the religious one and the armed forces are split in two in order to avoid coups. Bad things happen when they clash.
- The IRGC and the Quds force feel emboldened for some reason, probably to increase pressure on other parts of Iran's government. European authorities have stopped a number of large assasination plots by Iranian agents that could have claimed dozens of lives through bombing campaigns. They've kept it hush hush because the nuclear deal is paramount, but nobody is comfortable with the situation and the IRGC may have its own devices.
- Iran is undergoing some significant unrest. See the hundreds of cafeterias being closed by religious authorities and the women being incarcerated for refusing to wear a scarf. Younger people may not want war, but some figures may see it as a way to strengthen their power.
I'd also be wary about "torpedo talk". As far as we know, previous attacks have used what most experts believe to be limpet mines, which means frogmen.
Let's wait for more information. The fact that European vessels have been attacked will probably increase transparency as the EU and its closest partners don't want to get involved in a new war.
